World
Robots and happy workers: Productivity surge helps explain US economy's surprising resilience
WASHINGTON (AP) — Trying to keep up with customer demand, Batesville Tool & Die began seeking 70 people to hire last year. It wasn’t easy. Attracting factory workers to a community of 7,300 in the Indiana countryside was a tough sell, especially having to compete with big-name manufacturers nearby like Honda and Cummins Engine.
Job seekers were scarce.
“You could count on one hand how many people in the town were unemployed,” said Jody Fledderman, the CEO. “It was just crazy.’’
Batesville Tool & Die managed to fill just 40 of its vacancies.
Enter the robots. The company invested in machines that could mimic human workers and in vision systems, which helped its robots “see” what they were doing.
The Batesville experience and others like it have been replicated countlessly across the United States for the past couple of years. Chronic worker shortages have led many companies to invest in machines to do some of the work they can’t find people to do. They’ve also been training the workers they do have to use advanced technology so they can produce more with less.
The result has been an unexpected productivity boom, which helps explain a great economic mystery: How has the world’s largest economy managed to remain so healthy, with brisk growth and low unemployment, despite brutally high interest rates that are intended to tame inflation but that typically cause a recession?
To economists, strong productivity growth provides an almost magical elixir. When companies roll out more efficient machines or technology, their workers can become more productive: They increase their output per hour. A result is that companies can often boost their profits and raise their employees’ pay without having to jack up prices. Inflation can remain in check.
Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, has likened surging productivity to “magic beanstalk beans for the economy. … You can have faster income increases, faster wage growth, faster GDP without generating inflation.’’
Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the tax and consulting firm RSM, said, “The last time we saw anything like this was the late 1990s.”
That was when a productivity surge — an early payoff from the sudden embrace of laptops, cellphones and the internet — helped allow the Federal Reserve to keep borrowing rates low because inflation remained under control even as the economy and the job market sizzled.
This time, the Fed’s aggressive streak of rate hikes — 11 of them starting in March 2022 — has managed to help cool inflation from a four-decade high of 9.1% to 3.1% while causing little economic hardship.
“I would have said it’s not possible,’’ said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. “But that’s exactly what happened.’’
A year ago, nearly every economist was warning that a recession was all but inevitable. Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself warned in 2022 that beating inflation would inflict “some pain” in the form of widespread layoffs and higher unemployment.
By last month, Powell was sounding a different note. With unemployment barely above a half-century low, the Fed chair told reporters, “We’ve had a very strong labor market, and we’ve had inflation coming down.”
He did caution that the central bank wants to see further progress in slowing inflation. Yet the Fed is so optimistic that inflation is heading toward its 2% goal that it hasn’t raised rates since July and is expected to cut rates multiple times this year.
Perhaps the likeliest explanation is the greater efficiencies that companies like Batesville Tool & Die have managed to achieve in the past year or so. Before productivity began its resurgent growth last year, a rule of thumb was that average hourly pay could rise no more than 3.5% annually for inflation to stay within the Fed’s 2% target. That would mean that today’s roughly 4% average annual pay growth would have to shrink. Yet higher productivity has changed that equation: There’s now more leeway for wage growth to stay elevated without igniting inflation.
“A lot of that pressure on business finances — that normally causes them to raise prices — has been offset by strong productivity growth,’’ Guatieri said.
At a news conference this month, Powell was asked whether he believed higher productivity helps explain why the economy has kept growing steadily even while inflation has tumbled.
“That’s one way to look at it — yeah,” Powell replied.
The productivity boom marks a sharp shift from the pre-pandemic years, when annual productivity growth averaged around a tepid 1.5%, according RSM’s calculations. Everything changed as the economy rocketed out of the 2020 pandemic recession with unexpected vigor, and businesses struggled to re-hire the many workers they had shed.
The resulting worker shortage sent wages surging. Inflation jumped, too, as factories and ports buckled under the strain of rising consumer orders. Parts shortages arose.
Desperate, many companies turned to automation. Investment in equipment and in research and development and other forms of intellectual property accelerated. The efficiency payoff began to arrive almost a year ago. Labor productivity rose at a 3.6% annual pace from last April through June, 4.9% from July through September and 3.2% from October through December.
At Reata Engineering & Machine Works, “efficiency was kind of forced on us,’’ CEO Grady Cope said. With the job market roaring, the company, based in Englewood, Colorado, couldn’t hire fast enough. Meantime, its customers were starting to balk at paying higher prices.
So Reata installed robots and other technology to produce more with less. Software allowed it to automate the delivery of price quotes to customers. That process used to require two weeks. Now, it can be done in 24 hours.
Many economists and business people say they’re hopeful, if not certain, that the productivity boom can continue. Artificial intelligence, they note, is only beginning to penetrate factory floors, warehouses, stores and offices.
“Right now, AI is not a critical enabler for us; it’s an assistant and accelerator in certain roles,’’ said Peter Doyle, CEO of Hirsh Precision, which makes parts for the aerospace and medical device industries. “The world is still trying to understand what AI is capable of doing and how quickly it will advance.’’
The early evidence suggests that AI could sustain the productivity gains. A study last year by Erik Brynjolfsson of Stanford University and Danielle Li and Lindsey Raymond of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology tracked 5,200 customer-support agents at a Fortune 500 company who used a generative AI-based assistant in 2020 and 2021. The AI tool provided suggestions for dealing with customers and links to useful internal documents.
Those using the chatbot were found to be 14% more productive than colleagues who didn’t use the tool. They handled more calls and completed them faster. The biggest gains in productivity — 34% — came from the least-experienced, least-skilled workers.
Automation tends to raise fears that machines will replace human workers and thereby kill jobs. Some workers supplanted by robots do often struggle to find new work and end up settling for lower pay.
Yet history suggests that in the long run, technological improvements actually create more jobs than they destroy. People are needed to build, upgrade, repair and operate sophisticated machines. Some displaced workers are trained to shift into such jobs. And that transition is likely to be eased this time by the retirement of the vast baby boom generation, which is causing labor shortages.
Some of today’s productivity gains may be coming not just from advanced technology but also from more satisfied workers. The tight labor markets of the past three years allowed Americans to change jobs and find others that pay better and make them happier and more productive.
One of them was Justin Thompson, of Kalamazoo, Michigan, who had felt burned out by his job as a police officer, with its 16-hour workdays .
“I was literally running myself into the ground,’’ he said.
Thompson’s wife saw a job posting for operations manager at a charter airline. Even without airline experience, his wife felt he could use skills he gains as a Marine Corps infantryman — handling logistics for missions — during tours in Iraq and Afghanistan.
She was right. Omni Air International hired him in 2019.
Thompson, 43, said he he loves the new job, which allows him to work from home when he’s not traveling. And his Marine experience — which included developing ways to improve efficiency — has proved invaluable. Technology helps, too: Thompson travels with a laptop, iPad and mobile printer and uses proprietary software to manage logistics.
Other workers have switched from low-skill jobs to those that pay better and are more productive.
“The people who were rolling tacos on Dec. 31, 2019 … yeah, they’ve moved up,’’ RSM’s Brusuelas said. “They’re doing other things and making a lot more money.”
At Reata Engineering, staffers were trained to use new sophisticated equipment. One 19-year-old employee, a university engineering student, has used AI tools to make company training materials less cumbersome and time-consuming.
“The whole point is not to lay people off,’’ said Cope, the CEO of Reata Engineering. “The point is to make people do jobs that are more interesting’’ — and pay better, too.
World
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US citizen among 4 dead in Laos after suspected alcohol poisoning
An American, two Danes and one Australian tourist died after drinking tainted alcohol in Laos following reports that several people had been sickened in a town popular with backpackers.
The only victim’s identity publicly released so far is 19-year-old Bianca Jones of Australia.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese told Parliament on Thursday that Jones had died after being evacuated from Vang Vieng, Laos, for treatment in a Thai hospital. Her friend, also 19, remains hospitalized in neighboring Thailand.
“This is every parent’s very worst fear and a nightmare that no one should have to endure,” Albanese said, according to The Associated Press. “We also take this moment to say that we’re thinking of Bianca’s friend Holly Bowles, who is fighting for her life.”
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Shaun Bowles told reporters outside Bangkok Hospital on Wednesday that his daughter remained in critical condition and on life support.
“We just like to thank everyone from back home for all of the support and love that we’re receiving,” he said. “But we’d also like the people to appreciate right now, we just need privacy so we can spend as much time as we can with Holly.”
Australian media said Jones was the fourth foreign tourist to die after consuming the contaminated alcohol.
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“The physician who examined her said the cause of death was a methanol poisoning, from fake liquor,” Phattanawong Chanphon, a police official in the Thai city, told Reuters. “The amount of methanol in her body was high, leading to swelling of the brain.”
Counterfeit liquor is a problem in Laos, with the governments of Australia and Britain warning citizens to be cautious when having drinks there.
Methanol is a toxic alcohol that is used industrially as a solvent, pesticide and alternative fuel source, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The U.S. Department of State did not respond to a Fox News Digital inquiry, but told the AP that local authorities were investigating the case and were responsible for providing any details. The State Department noted that the U.S. was providing consular assistance.
“At this time I would say to parents, to young people, please have a conversation about risks, please inform yourselves, please let’s work together to ensure this tragedy doesn’t happen again,” Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong said after receiving news of Jones’ death.
The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this request.
World
UK imposes sanctions on Isabel dos Santos, Ukrainian oligarch Firtash
The measures are a part of the Labour government tightening Britain’s anti-corruption sanctions regime.
The United Kingdom has barred Angolan billionaire Isabel dos Santos and Ukrainian oligarch Dmytro Firtash and frozen their UK assets, the government announced, in what it said was part of a new crackdown on “dirty money”.
The measures on Thursday were the first step in tightening Britain’s anti-corruption sanctions regime as promised in July’s election, the Labour government said.
“These unscrupulous individuals selfishly deprive their fellow citizens of much-needed funding for education, healthcare and infrastructure – for their own enrichment,” Foreign Secretary David Lammy said in a statement.
Dos Santos, whose father Jose Eduardo dos Santos served as Angola’s president for 38 years until 2017, is Africa’s first female billionaire and has faced corruption accusations in Angola and elsewhere for years. She denies the allegations and says she is the target of a long-running political vendetta.
She was sanctioned by the United States in 2021 for “involvement in significant corruption” and is barred from entering the country.
Britain said dos Santos abused her positions at Angolan state oil firm Sonangol and telecoms company Unitel to embezzle at least 350 million pounds ($440m).
Dos Santos lost an appeal to overturn an order freezing up to 580 million pounds of her assets in September as part of a lawsuit at London’s High Court brought by Unitel. Global police agency Interpol has issued a red notice for her.
In a statement cited by the Reuters news agency, dos Santos said that the British sanctions were “incorrect and unjustified”.
“I was not given the opportunity to defend myself against these allegations,” she said. “I intend to appeal and I hope that the United Kingdom will give me the opportunity to present my evidence.”
Firtash is wanted by Ukrainian and US authorities on suspicion of embezzling nearly $500m involving Ukraine’s gas transit system. He says the charges are without legal foundation.
He is currently in Austria fighting extradition to the US.
In June 2021, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a decree imposing sanctions on Firtash, including the freezing of his assets and withdrawal of licences from his companies, after accusing him of selling titanium products to Russian military companies.
Britain said Firtash had extracted “hundreds of millions of pounds from Ukraine through corruption”, and hidden tens of millions of pounds of ill-gotten gains in the UK property market alone.
Britain also sanctioned his wife Lada Firtash, who it said held UK assets on his behalf including the site of the old Brompton Road rail station of the London Underground.
Latvian businessman and politician Aivars Lembergs, who was put on a US sanctions list in 2019 for alleged corruption, was also sanctioned, as was his daughter Liga Lemberga. The British government said Lembergs had “abused his political position to commit bribery and launder money.”
Lammy said the penalties were the start of a crackdown.
“I committed to taking on kleptocrats and the dirty money that empowers them when I became foreign secretary, and these sanctions mark the first step in delivering this ambition,” he said.
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