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Robots and happy workers: Productivity surge helps explain US economy's surprising resilience

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Robots and happy workers: Productivity surge helps explain US economy's surprising resilience

WASHINGTON (AP) — Trying to keep up with customer demand, Batesville Tool & Die began seeking 70 people to hire last year. It wasn’t easy. Attracting factory workers to a community of 7,300 in the Indiana countryside was a tough sell, especially having to compete with big-name manufacturers nearby like Honda and Cummins Engine.

Job seekers were scarce.

“You could count on one hand how many people in the town were unemployed,” said Jody Fledderman, the CEO. “It was just crazy.’’

Batesville Tool & Die managed to fill just 40 of its vacancies.

Enter the robots. The company invested in machines that could mimic human workers and in vision systems, which helped its robots “see” what they were doing.

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The Batesville experience and others like it have been replicated countlessly across the United States for the past couple of years. Chronic worker shortages have led many companies to invest in machines to do some of the work they can’t find people to do. They’ve also been training the workers they do have to use advanced technology so they can produce more with less.

The result has been an unexpected productivity boom, which helps explain a great economic mystery: How has the world’s largest economy managed to remain so healthy, with brisk growth and low unemployment, despite brutally high interest rates that are intended to tame inflation but that typically cause a recession?

A Halter robot collects a finished piece for blood pressure pumps from a Mazak Integrex at Reata Engineering and Machine Works Thursday, Feb. 15, 2024, in Englewood, Colo. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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To economists, strong productivity growth provides an almost magical elixir. When companies roll out more efficient machines or technology, their workers can become more productive: They increase their output per hour. A result is that companies can often boost their profits and raise their employees’ pay without having to jack up prices. Inflation can remain in check.

Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, has likened surging productivity to “magic beanstalk beans for the economy. … You can have faster income increases, faster wage growth, faster GDP without generating inflation.’’

Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the tax and consulting firm RSM, said, “The last time we saw anything like this was the late 1990s.”

That was when a productivity surge — an early payoff from the sudden embrace of laptops, cellphones and the internet — helped allow the Federal Reserve to keep borrowing rates low because inflation remained under control even as the economy and the job market sizzled.

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A worker at Reata Engineering and Machine Works programs a Mazak Variaxis machine used to make semiconductor pieces, Thursday, Feb. 15, 2024, in Englewood, Colo. Reata, which supplies the aviation and medical device industries, has invested heavily in software that automates its manufacturing processes. It's also been training workers to use more sophisticated equipment. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

A worker at Reata Engineering and Machine Works programs a Mazak Variaxis machine used to make semiconductor pieces, Thursday, Feb. 15, 2024, in Englewood, Colo. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

This time, the Fed’s aggressive streak of rate hikes — 11 of them starting in March 2022 — has managed to help cool inflation from a four-decade high of 9.1% to 3.1% while causing little economic hardship.

“I would have said it’s not possible,’’ said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. “But that’s exactly what happened.’’

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A year ago, nearly every economist was warning that a recession was all but inevitable. Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself warned in 2022 that beating inflation would inflict “some pain” in the form of widespread layoffs and higher unemployment.

By last month, Powell was sounding a different note. With unemployment barely above a half-century low, the Fed chair told reporters, “We’ve had a very strong labor market, and we’ve had inflation coming down.”

He did caution that the central bank wants to see further progress in slowing inflation. Yet the Fed is so optimistic that inflation is heading toward its 2% goal that it hasn’t raised rates since July and is expected to cut rates multiple times this year.

A box of parts for blood plasma pumps sits ready for shipping from Reata Engineering and Machine Works Thursday, Feb. 15, 2024, in Englewood, Colo. At Reata, which makes parts for aircraft and medical device manufacturers, "efficiency was kind of forced on us,'' CEO Grady Cope said. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

A box of parts for blood plasma pumps sits ready for shipping from Reata Engineering and Machine Works Thursday, Feb. 15, 2024, in Englewood, Colo. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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Perhaps the likeliest explanation is the greater efficiencies that companies like Batesville Tool & Die have managed to achieve in the past year or so. Before productivity began its resurgent growth last year, a rule of thumb was that average hourly pay could rise no more than 3.5% annually for inflation to stay within the Fed’s 2% target. That would mean that today’s roughly 4% average annual pay growth would have to shrink. Yet higher productivity has changed that equation: There’s now more leeway for wage growth to stay elevated without igniting inflation.

“A lot of that pressure on business finances — that normally causes them to raise prices — has been offset by strong productivity growth,’’ Guatieri said.

At a news conference this month, Powell was asked whether he believed higher productivity helps explain why the economy has kept growing steadily even while inflation has tumbled.

“That’s one way to look at it — yeah,” Powell replied.

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The productivity boom marks a sharp shift from the pre-pandemic years, when annual productivity growth averaged around a tepid 1.5%, according RSM’s calculations. Everything changed as the economy rocketed out of the 2020 pandemic recession with unexpected vigor, and businesses struggled to re-hire the many workers they had shed.

The resulting worker shortage sent wages surging. Inflation jumped, too, as factories and ports buckled under the strain of rising consumer orders. Parts shortages arose.

Desperate, many companies turned to automation. Investment in equipment and in research and development and other forms of intellectual property accelerated. The efficiency payoff began to arrive almost a year ago. Labor productivity rose at a 3.6% annual pace from last April through June, 4.9% from July through September and 3.2% from October through December.

At Reata Engineering & Machine Works, “efficiency was kind of forced on us,’’ CEO Grady Cope said. With the job market roaring, the company, based in Englewood, Colorado, couldn’t hire fast enough. Meantime, its customers were starting to balk at paying higher prices.

Semiconductor pieces sit in a shipping box as they are produced in a Mazak Variaxis machine at Reata Engineering and Machine Works Thursday, Feb. 15, 2024, in Englewood, Colo. Reata, which supplies the aviation and medical device industries, has invested heavily in software that automates its manufacturing processes. It's also been training workers to use more sophisticated equipment. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Semiconductor pieces sit in a shipping box as they are produced in a Mazak Variaxis machine at Reata Engineering and Machine Works Thursday, Feb. 15, 2024, in Englewood, Colo. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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So Reata installed robots and other technology to produce more with less. Software allowed it to automate the delivery of price quotes to customers. That process used to require two weeks. Now, it can be done in 24 hours.

Many economists and business people say they’re hopeful, if not certain, that the productivity boom can continue. Artificial intelligence, they note, is only beginning to penetrate factory floors, warehouses, stores and offices.

“Right now, AI is not a critical enabler for us; it’s an assistant and accelerator in certain roles,’’ said Peter Doyle, CEO of Hirsh Precision, which makes parts for the aerospace and medical device industries. “The world is still trying to understand what AI is capable of doing and how quickly it will advance.’’

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The early evidence suggests that AI could sustain the productivity gains. A study last year by Erik Brynjolfsson of Stanford University and Danielle Li and Lindsey Raymond of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology tracked 5,200 customer-support agents at a Fortune 500 company who used a generative AI-based assistant in 2020 and 2021. The AI tool provided suggestions for dealing with customers and links to useful internal documents.

Those using the chatbot were found to be 14% more productive than colleagues who didn’t use the tool. They handled more calls and completed them faster. The biggest gains in productivity — 34% — came from the least-experienced, least-skilled workers.

Automation tends to raise fears that machines will replace human workers and thereby kill jobs. Some workers supplanted by robots do often struggle to find new work and end up settling for lower pay.

Yet history suggests that in the long run, technological improvements actually create more jobs than they destroy. People are needed to build, upgrade, repair and operate sophisticated machines. Some displaced workers are trained to shift into such jobs. And that transition is likely to be eased this time by the retirement of the vast baby boom generation, which is causing labor shortages.

Some of today’s productivity gains may be coming not just from advanced technology but also from more satisfied workers. The tight labor markets of the past three years allowed Americans to change jobs and find others that pay better and make them happier and more productive.

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One of them was Justin Thompson, of Kalamazoo, Michigan, who had felt burned out by his job as a police officer, with its 16-hour workdays .

“I was literally running myself into the ground,’’ he said.

Thompson’s wife saw a job posting for operations manager at a charter airline. Even without airline experience, his wife felt he could use skills he gains as a Marine Corps infantryman — handling logistics for missions — during tours in Iraq and Afghanistan.

She was right. Omni Air International hired him in 2019.

Thompson, 43, said he he loves the new job, which allows him to work from home when he’s not traveling. And his Marine experience — which included developing ways to improve efficiency — has proved invaluable. Technology helps, too: Thompson travels with a laptop, iPad and mobile printer and uses proprietary software to manage logistics.

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Other workers have switched from low-skill jobs to those that pay better and are more productive.

“The people who were rolling tacos on Dec. 31, 2019 … yeah, they’ve moved up,’’ RSM’s Brusuelas said. “They’re doing other things and making a lot more money.”

At Reata Engineering, staffers were trained to use new sophisticated equipment. One 19-year-old employee, a university engineering student, has used AI tools to make company training materials less cumbersome and time-consuming.

“The whole point is not to lay people off,’’ said Cope, the CEO of Reata Engineering. “The point is to make people do jobs that are more interesting’’ — and pay better, too.

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Trump Shows Approval for Nippon Steel's Bid for US Steel, Blesses 'Planned Partnership'

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Trump Shows Approval for Nippon Steel's Bid for US Steel, Blesses 'Planned Partnership'
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to give his approval to Nippon Steel’s $14.9 billion bid for U.S. Steel on Friday, saying the “planned partnership” between the two would create jobs and help the American economy. Shares of U.S. Steel soared 21% as investors interpreted the …
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Power outage disrupts final day of Cannes Film Festival, police investigate possible arson

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Power outage disrupts final day of Cannes Film Festival, police investigate possible arson

A major power outage struck southeastern France on Saturday morning, threatening to jeopardize the Cannes Film Festival’s closing celebrations, including the much-anticipated Palme d’Or ceremony.

Police said they have opened an investigation into possible arson.

Power was restored hours before the ceremony, around 3 p.m. local time, as music began blasting again from beachfront speakers. The end of the blackout was greeted with loud cheers from locals.

CAUSE OF MASSIVE EUROPEAN POWER OUTAGE UNCLEAR AS FULL SERVICE RETURNS

Staff members of the Palais Stephanie Beach inform customers following a major electricity outage, during the 78th Cannes Film Festival in Cannes, France May 24, 2025.  (REUTERS/Benoit Tessier)

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Earlier, about 160,000 households in the Alpes-Maritimes department lost electricity after a high-voltage line fell Saturday morning, electricity network operator RTE said on X. The outage came hours after a fire at an electrical substation near Cannes overnight had already weakened the grid.

“We are looking into the likelihood of a fire being started deliberately,” said a police spokesperson for the French national gendarmerie.

In a statement, Laurent Hottiaux, the prefect of the Alpes-Maritimes department, condemned “serious acts of damage to electrical infrastructure[s].”

PUERTO RICO HIT WITH MASSIVE ISLAND-WIDE BLACKOUT AHEAD OF EASTER WEEKEND

Employees standing in the doorway of a Zara store

Employees stand outside a shop during an electricity outage in Cannes, southern France, Saturday, May 24, 2025.  (AP Photo/Natacha Pisarenko)

“All resources are mobilized to identify, track down, arrest and bring to justice the perpetrators of these acts,” said Hottiaux.

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Cannes Film Festival organizers confirmed the outage affected the early activities of Saturday and said the Palais des Festivals — the Croisette’s main venue — had switched to an independent power supply.

“All scheduled events and screenings, including the Closing Ceremony, will proceed as planned and under normal conditions,” the statement said. “At this stage, the cause of the outage has not yet been identified. Restoration efforts are underway.”

A powerless traffic light in the south of France

Traffic lights are switched off during an electricity outage in Cannes, southern France, Saturday, May 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Lewis Joly) (AP Photo/Lewis Joly)

Traffic lights in parts of Cannes and the surrounding city of Antibes stopped working after 10 a.m., leading to traffic jams and confusion in city centers. Most shops along the Croisette remained closed, and local food kiosks were only accepting cash. Train service in Cannes was also disrupted.

Screenings at the Cineum, one of the festival’s satellite venues, were briefly suspended, the festival added.

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The Palme d’Or — the festival’s most prestigious prize — was set to be awarded Saturday night, with top contenders including Joachim Trier’s family drama “Sentimental Value,” Jafar Panahi’s revenge thriller “It Was Just an Accident,” Kleber Mendonça Filho’s political thriller “The Secret Agent,” and Óliver Laxe’s desert road trip “Sirât.”

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Australia begins cleanup after floods kill 5, strand thousands

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Australia begins cleanup after floods kill 5, strand thousands

Hundreds of residents remain in evacuation centres, with 52 rescues made overnight despite conditions easing.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has announced the start of a cleanup operation in eastern Australia after record-breaking floods killed five people and stranded tens of thousands of people.

Damage assessments are under way for the coastal region of New South Wales in the east, where at least 10,000 properties are thought to have been damaged, the state’s emergency services agency said on Saturday.

Conditions have eased since Friday after days of relentless rain isolated towns, swept away livestock and destroyed homes, the agency added.

“We’re continuing to work closely across federal, state and local governments to make sure Australians get the support they need now and through recovery,” Albanese posted on X.

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Despite improving conditions, hundreds of residents remain in evacuation centres with 52 rescues made overnight, State Emergency Services commissioner Mike Wassing said.

Joanna Ally reacts as she cleans up the Manning Support Services centre in Taree [Hollie Adams/Reuters]

The death toll from flooding rose to five after a man in his 80s was found at a flooded property about 50km (32 miles) from Taree, one of the worst-hit towns, police said.

It’s “awful to hear the news of more loss of life”, Albanese said after being forced to cancel his trip to Taree on Friday due to floodwaters.

At their worst, the flooding isolated about 50,000 people and submerged roads in the country’s most populous state.

Coastal areas were left littered with debris and dead animals after a powerful storm system dumped months’ worth of rain in three days.

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Train services, including airport services, were affected by flooded tracks. Sydney airport shut two of its three runways for an hour on Friday morning, delaying flights.

Australia has suffered a series of extreme weather events in recent years, which experts have attributed to climate change.

Frequent flooding has caused widespread devastation in the country since early 2021, following droughts and bushfires at the end of the last decade.

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