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Robots and happy workers: Productivity surge helps explain US economy's surprising resilience

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Robots and happy workers: Productivity surge helps explain US economy's surprising resilience

WASHINGTON (AP) — Trying to keep up with customer demand, Batesville Tool & Die began seeking 70 people to hire last year. It wasn’t easy. Attracting factory workers to a community of 7,300 in the Indiana countryside was a tough sell, especially having to compete with big-name manufacturers nearby like Honda and Cummins Engine.

Job seekers were scarce.

“You could count on one hand how many people in the town were unemployed,” said Jody Fledderman, the CEO. “It was just crazy.’’

Batesville Tool & Die managed to fill just 40 of its vacancies.

Enter the robots. The company invested in machines that could mimic human workers and in vision systems, which helped its robots “see” what they were doing.

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The Batesville experience and others like it have been replicated countlessly across the United States for the past couple of years. Chronic worker shortages have led many companies to invest in machines to do some of the work they can’t find people to do. They’ve also been training the workers they do have to use advanced technology so they can produce more with less.

The result has been an unexpected productivity boom, which helps explain a great economic mystery: How has the world’s largest economy managed to remain so healthy, with brisk growth and low unemployment, despite brutally high interest rates that are intended to tame inflation but that typically cause a recession?

A Halter robot collects a finished piece for blood pressure pumps from a Mazak Integrex at Reata Engineering and Machine Works Thursday, Feb. 15, 2024, in Englewood, Colo. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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To economists, strong productivity growth provides an almost magical elixir. When companies roll out more efficient machines or technology, their workers can become more productive: They increase their output per hour. A result is that companies can often boost their profits and raise their employees’ pay without having to jack up prices. Inflation can remain in check.

Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, has likened surging productivity to “magic beanstalk beans for the economy. … You can have faster income increases, faster wage growth, faster GDP without generating inflation.’’

Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the tax and consulting firm RSM, said, “The last time we saw anything like this was the late 1990s.”

That was when a productivity surge — an early payoff from the sudden embrace of laptops, cellphones and the internet — helped allow the Federal Reserve to keep borrowing rates low because inflation remained under control even as the economy and the job market sizzled.

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A worker at Reata Engineering and Machine Works programs a Mazak Variaxis machine used to make semiconductor pieces, Thursday, Feb. 15, 2024, in Englewood, Colo. Reata, which supplies the aviation and medical device industries, has invested heavily in software that automates its manufacturing processes. It's also been training workers to use more sophisticated equipment. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

A worker at Reata Engineering and Machine Works programs a Mazak Variaxis machine used to make semiconductor pieces, Thursday, Feb. 15, 2024, in Englewood, Colo. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

This time, the Fed’s aggressive streak of rate hikes — 11 of them starting in March 2022 — has managed to help cool inflation from a four-decade high of 9.1% to 3.1% while causing little economic hardship.

“I would have said it’s not possible,’’ said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. “But that’s exactly what happened.’’

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A year ago, nearly every economist was warning that a recession was all but inevitable. Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself warned in 2022 that beating inflation would inflict “some pain” in the form of widespread layoffs and higher unemployment.

By last month, Powell was sounding a different note. With unemployment barely above a half-century low, the Fed chair told reporters, “We’ve had a very strong labor market, and we’ve had inflation coming down.”

He did caution that the central bank wants to see further progress in slowing inflation. Yet the Fed is so optimistic that inflation is heading toward its 2% goal that it hasn’t raised rates since July and is expected to cut rates multiple times this year.

A box of parts for blood plasma pumps sits ready for shipping from Reata Engineering and Machine Works Thursday, Feb. 15, 2024, in Englewood, Colo. At Reata, which makes parts for aircraft and medical device manufacturers,

A box of parts for blood plasma pumps sits ready for shipping from Reata Engineering and Machine Works Thursday, Feb. 15, 2024, in Englewood, Colo. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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Perhaps the likeliest explanation is the greater efficiencies that companies like Batesville Tool & Die have managed to achieve in the past year or so. Before productivity began its resurgent growth last year, a rule of thumb was that average hourly pay could rise no more than 3.5% annually for inflation to stay within the Fed’s 2% target. That would mean that today’s roughly 4% average annual pay growth would have to shrink. Yet higher productivity has changed that equation: There’s now more leeway for wage growth to stay elevated without igniting inflation.

“A lot of that pressure on business finances — that normally causes them to raise prices — has been offset by strong productivity growth,’’ Guatieri said.

At a news conference this month, Powell was asked whether he believed higher productivity helps explain why the economy has kept growing steadily even while inflation has tumbled.

“That’s one way to look at it — yeah,” Powell replied.

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The productivity boom marks a sharp shift from the pre-pandemic years, when annual productivity growth averaged around a tepid 1.5%, according RSM’s calculations. Everything changed as the economy rocketed out of the 2020 pandemic recession with unexpected vigor, and businesses struggled to re-hire the many workers they had shed.

The resulting worker shortage sent wages surging. Inflation jumped, too, as factories and ports buckled under the strain of rising consumer orders. Parts shortages arose.

Desperate, many companies turned to automation. Investment in equipment and in research and development and other forms of intellectual property accelerated. The efficiency payoff began to arrive almost a year ago. Labor productivity rose at a 3.6% annual pace from last April through June, 4.9% from July through September and 3.2% from October through December.

At Reata Engineering & Machine Works, “efficiency was kind of forced on us,’’ CEO Grady Cope said. With the job market roaring, the company, based in Englewood, Colorado, couldn’t hire fast enough. Meantime, its customers were starting to balk at paying higher prices.

Semiconductor pieces sit in a shipping box as they are produced in a Mazak Variaxis machine at Reata Engineering and Machine Works Thursday, Feb. 15, 2024, in Englewood, Colo. Reata, which supplies the aviation and medical device industries, has invested heavily in software that automates its manufacturing processes. It's also been training workers to use more sophisticated equipment. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Semiconductor pieces sit in a shipping box as they are produced in a Mazak Variaxis machine at Reata Engineering and Machine Works Thursday, Feb. 15, 2024, in Englewood, Colo. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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So Reata installed robots and other technology to produce more with less. Software allowed it to automate the delivery of price quotes to customers. That process used to require two weeks. Now, it can be done in 24 hours.

Many economists and business people say they’re hopeful, if not certain, that the productivity boom can continue. Artificial intelligence, they note, is only beginning to penetrate factory floors, warehouses, stores and offices.

“Right now, AI is not a critical enabler for us; it’s an assistant and accelerator in certain roles,’’ said Peter Doyle, CEO of Hirsh Precision, which makes parts for the aerospace and medical device industries. “The world is still trying to understand what AI is capable of doing and how quickly it will advance.’’

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The early evidence suggests that AI could sustain the productivity gains. A study last year by Erik Brynjolfsson of Stanford University and Danielle Li and Lindsey Raymond of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology tracked 5,200 customer-support agents at a Fortune 500 company who used a generative AI-based assistant in 2020 and 2021. The AI tool provided suggestions for dealing with customers and links to useful internal documents.

Those using the chatbot were found to be 14% more productive than colleagues who didn’t use the tool. They handled more calls and completed them faster. The biggest gains in productivity — 34% — came from the least-experienced, least-skilled workers.

Automation tends to raise fears that machines will replace human workers and thereby kill jobs. Some workers supplanted by robots do often struggle to find new work and end up settling for lower pay.

Yet history suggests that in the long run, technological improvements actually create more jobs than they destroy. People are needed to build, upgrade, repair and operate sophisticated machines. Some displaced workers are trained to shift into such jobs. And that transition is likely to be eased this time by the retirement of the vast baby boom generation, which is causing labor shortages.

Some of today’s productivity gains may be coming not just from advanced technology but also from more satisfied workers. The tight labor markets of the past three years allowed Americans to change jobs and find others that pay better and make them happier and more productive.

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One of them was Justin Thompson, of Kalamazoo, Michigan, who had felt burned out by his job as a police officer, with its 16-hour workdays .

“I was literally running myself into the ground,’’ he said.

Thompson’s wife saw a job posting for operations manager at a charter airline. Even without airline experience, his wife felt he could use skills he gains as a Marine Corps infantryman — handling logistics for missions — during tours in Iraq and Afghanistan.

She was right. Omni Air International hired him in 2019.

Thompson, 43, said he he loves the new job, which allows him to work from home when he’s not traveling. And his Marine experience — which included developing ways to improve efficiency — has proved invaluable. Technology helps, too: Thompson travels with a laptop, iPad and mobile printer and uses proprietary software to manage logistics.

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Other workers have switched from low-skill jobs to those that pay better and are more productive.

“The people who were rolling tacos on Dec. 31, 2019 … yeah, they’ve moved up,’’ RSM’s Brusuelas said. “They’re doing other things and making a lot more money.”

At Reata Engineering, staffers were trained to use new sophisticated equipment. One 19-year-old employee, a university engineering student, has used AI tools to make company training materials less cumbersome and time-consuming.

“The whole point is not to lay people off,’’ said Cope, the CEO of Reata Engineering. “The point is to make people do jobs that are more interesting’’ — and pay better, too.

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Senior Iranian official tells Reuters US-Iran talks unlikely | The Jerusalem Post

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Senior Iranian official tells Reuters US-Iran talks unlikely | The Jerusalem Post

The official additionally stated that Iran has reviewed a US 15-point proposal for ending the ongoing war in the Middle East and deemed it “one-sided and unfair,” serving only US and Israeli interests, and lacking “the minimum requirements for success.”

“In brief, the proposal suggests that Iran would relinquish its ability to defend itself in exchange for a vague plan to lift sanctions,” he told Reuters.

No arrangement for negotiations has been established yet, the official continued, adding that Turkey and Pakistan are attempting to “establish common ground between Iran and the United States and reduce differences.”

The proposal, which was conveyed to Iran through Pakistan, “was reviewed in detail on Wednesday night by senior Iranian officials and the representative of Iran’s Supreme Leader,” the official said.

On Wednesday, Iranian regime-tied Press TV cited an Iranian official as stating that Tehran considered the conditions of the proposal excessive and would only agree to end the war at a time of its choosing if its conditions are met.

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According to an N12 News report on Tuesday, citing three sources familiar with the details of the potential plan, the US was considering declaring a month-long ceasefire during which negotiations on the agreement would take place.

The 15-point plan reportedly contained terms including the dismantling of all existing Iranian nuclear capabilities, a commitment that Iran will discontinue efforts to obtain nuclear weapons, and a requirement that any already enriched uranium be moved out of Iran.

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Zelenskyy claims US tied Ukraine security guarantees to giving up Donbas, White House denies

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Zelenskyy claims US tied Ukraine security guarantees to giving up Donbas, White House denies

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U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine are being tied to Kyiv ceding the eastern Donbas region to Russia as part of a potential peace deal, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Reuters in an interview published Thursday.

“The Americans are prepared to finalize these guarantees at a high level once Ukraine is ready to withdraw from Donbas,” Zelenskyy said, describing a proposal he warned could undermine both Ukraine’s defenses and broader European security.

But a U.S. official, speaking on background, told Fox News Digital the claim is false.

Zelenskyy’s comments point to growing pressure from President Donald Trump to reach a swift end to the war, now in its fourth year following Russia’s 2022 invasion. 

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ZELENSKYY SAYS PEACE DEAL IS CLOSE AFTER TRUMP MEETING BUT TERRITORY REMAINS STICKING POINT

Zelenskyy suggested the administration’s approach is influenced in part by competing global crises, including the ongoing conflict involving Iran.

U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine are being tied to Kyiv ceding the eastern Donbas region to Russia as part of a potential peace deal, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.  (Pavlo Bahmut/Ukrinform/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

“The Middle East definitely has an impact on President Trump,” Zelenskyy said. “President Trump, unfortunately, in my opinion, still chooses a strategy of putting more pressure on the Ukrainian side.”

Talks between the United States, Russia and Ukraine have taken place in Abu Dhabi and Geneva in 2026, but key issues remain unresolved, including how Ukraine’s future security would be guaranteed and who would fund its long-term defense.

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Zelenskyy warned that abandoning Donbas would hand Russia heavily fortified Ukrainian defensive lines, weakening Kyiv’s position and potentially enabling future aggression.

“I would very much like the American side to understand that the eastern part of our country is part of our security guarantees,” he said.

ZELENSKYY CLAIMS TRUMP SAID US WILL CONSIDER GIVING UKRAINE DECADES OF SECURITY GUARANTEES

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that abandoning Donbas would hand Russia heavily fortified Ukrainian defensive lines.  (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

Russian President Vladimir Putin has long insisted that full control of Donbas is central to Moscow’s war aims. While Russian forces have made gains, analysts cited by Reuters say progress has been slow, and capturing the remaining territory could take significant time and manpower.

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Zelenskyy also warned that Moscow is betting Washington will lose interest if negotiations stall. 

“Russia is counting on the fact that the United States will not have the strength or patience to bring this to an end,” he said.

Despite tensions over negotiations, Zelenskyy thanked the Trump administration for continuing deliveries of Patriot missile defense systems, which Ukraine relies on to intercept Russian ballistic missiles. 

“Deliveries to us were not stopped. I’m very grateful to President Trump, and to his team,” he said, while adding that supplies remain insufficient.

In parallel with the diplomatic push, Zelenskyy signaled a broader strategy to expand Ukraine’s role as a security provider, particularly in the Middle East, where countries are seeking solutions to large-scale drone and missile threats.

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UKRAINE PEACE TALKS PRODUCTIVE AS EX-GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL SAYS COUNTRY RETHINKING ‘UNCOMPROMISING’ STANCE

A cemetery worker prepares a burial vault at military cemetery outside of the city of Dnipro, Ukraine, May 25, 2023. (Seth Herald/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

“The United States has reached out to us regarding their bases in Middle Eastern countries,” Zelenskyy wrote on X Thursday, adding that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait have also approached Ukraine.

He said Ukrainian teams are already on the ground sharing operational experience, particularly in countering mass drone attacks. 

“No matter how many Patriots, THAADs, or other air defense systems are in the Middle East, that alone is not enough,” he wrote. “There are modern interceptors designed to counter heavy drone strikes.”

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Zelenskyy also indicated Ukraine is exploring defense trade arrangements, offering to sell surplus systems and expertise while seeking access to air defense missiles it currently lacks. 

“Funding is the scarcest resource today,” he wrote, noting Ukraine’s defense industry is operating at roughly half capacity and needs additional financing to scale drone production.

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Ukraine is exploring defense trade arrangements, the country’s president said.  (Iryna Rybakova/Press Service of the 93rd Kholodnyi Yar Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces/Reuters)

In separate posts tied to an address at a Joint Expeditionary Force summit, Zelenskyy emphasized that Ukraine’s battlefield experience could play a broader role in European and global security.

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“We have this experience. … Let’s bring all of this together even more,” he wrote, calling for deeper cooperation with European partners and warning that the continent must build its own capacity to produce air defense systems rather than rely on external suppliers.

Reuters contributed to this story.

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Photos: More than one million displaced by Israel’s evacuations in Lebanon

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Photos: More than one million displaced by Israel’s evacuations in Lebanon

The Israeli military has issued expanded leave-or-die threats for Lebanese residents, mandating that all individuals south of the Zahrani River relocate north immediately. An Israeli spokesperson warned that those who fail to comply “may endanger their lives due to Israeli military activity.”

This directive represents a significant escalation in Israel’s forced evacuation threats targeting alleged Hezbollah positions. The forced evacuation zone now extends from the Litani River to areas beyond the Zahrani River, approximately 40 kilometres (25 miles) north of the Israeli border. According to the Norwegian Refugee Council, these orders cover more than 1,470 square kilometres (568sq miles) – about 14 percent of Lebanon’s territory – and affect more than 100 towns and villages.

At the same time, Israeli ground forces are bolstering their presence in southern Lebanon, with officials stating the goal is to establish a “buffer zone.”

The humanitarian impact has been devastating. Within just two weeks, more than 18 percent of Lebanon’s population – more than one million people – has been displaced. Data from the International Organization for Migration indicates that 1,049,328 individuals have been registered as displaced, with 132,742 residing in overcrowded collective shelters. As shelter capacities are overwhelmed, many families have no choice but to sleep on streets, in vehicles, or in public spaces.

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The crisis has also prompted a significant exodus from Lebanon. In the past two weeks, more than 250,000 people have fled the country, marking a 40 percent increase since late February. By March 17, more than 125,000 individuals – nearly half of them children – had crossed into Syria. While the majority are Syrian nationals, approximately 7,000 Lebanese citizens have also fled.

Further complicating the threatened civilians’ efforts to flee, Israel has destroyed bridges across the Litani River, cutting off vital infrastructure that connects southern Lebanon to the rest of the country.

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