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Robots and happy workers: Productivity surge helps explain US economy's surprising resilience

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Robots and happy workers: Productivity surge helps explain US economy's surprising resilience

WASHINGTON (AP) — Trying to keep up with customer demand, Batesville Tool & Die began seeking 70 people to hire last year. It wasn’t easy. Attracting factory workers to a community of 7,300 in the Indiana countryside was a tough sell, especially having to compete with big-name manufacturers nearby like Honda and Cummins Engine.

Job seekers were scarce.

“You could count on one hand how many people in the town were unemployed,” said Jody Fledderman, the CEO. “It was just crazy.’’

Batesville Tool & Die managed to fill just 40 of its vacancies.

Enter the robots. The company invested in machines that could mimic human workers and in vision systems, which helped its robots “see” what they were doing.

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The Batesville experience and others like it have been replicated countlessly across the United States for the past couple of years. Chronic worker shortages have led many companies to invest in machines to do some of the work they can’t find people to do. They’ve also been training the workers they do have to use advanced technology so they can produce more with less.

The result has been an unexpected productivity boom, which helps explain a great economic mystery: How has the world’s largest economy managed to remain so healthy, with brisk growth and low unemployment, despite brutally high interest rates that are intended to tame inflation but that typically cause a recession?

A Halter robot collects a finished piece for blood pressure pumps from a Mazak Integrex at Reata Engineering and Machine Works Thursday, Feb. 15, 2024, in Englewood, Colo. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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To economists, strong productivity growth provides an almost magical elixir. When companies roll out more efficient machines or technology, their workers can become more productive: They increase their output per hour. A result is that companies can often boost their profits and raise their employees’ pay without having to jack up prices. Inflation can remain in check.

Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, has likened surging productivity to “magic beanstalk beans for the economy. … You can have faster income increases, faster wage growth, faster GDP without generating inflation.’’

Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the tax and consulting firm RSM, said, “The last time we saw anything like this was the late 1990s.”

That was when a productivity surge — an early payoff from the sudden embrace of laptops, cellphones and the internet — helped allow the Federal Reserve to keep borrowing rates low because inflation remained under control even as the economy and the job market sizzled.

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A worker at Reata Engineering and Machine Works programs a Mazak Variaxis machine used to make semiconductor pieces, Thursday, Feb. 15, 2024, in Englewood, Colo. Reata, which supplies the aviation and medical device industries, has invested heavily in software that automates its manufacturing processes. It's also been training workers to use more sophisticated equipment. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

A worker at Reata Engineering and Machine Works programs a Mazak Variaxis machine used to make semiconductor pieces, Thursday, Feb. 15, 2024, in Englewood, Colo. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

This time, the Fed’s aggressive streak of rate hikes — 11 of them starting in March 2022 — has managed to help cool inflation from a four-decade high of 9.1% to 3.1% while causing little economic hardship.

“I would have said it’s not possible,’’ said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. “But that’s exactly what happened.’’

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A year ago, nearly every economist was warning that a recession was all but inevitable. Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself warned in 2022 that beating inflation would inflict “some pain” in the form of widespread layoffs and higher unemployment.

By last month, Powell was sounding a different note. With unemployment barely above a half-century low, the Fed chair told reporters, “We’ve had a very strong labor market, and we’ve had inflation coming down.”

He did caution that the central bank wants to see further progress in slowing inflation. Yet the Fed is so optimistic that inflation is heading toward its 2% goal that it hasn’t raised rates since July and is expected to cut rates multiple times this year.

A box of parts for blood plasma pumps sits ready for shipping from Reata Engineering and Machine Works Thursday, Feb. 15, 2024, in Englewood, Colo. At Reata, which makes parts for aircraft and medical device manufacturers,

A box of parts for blood plasma pumps sits ready for shipping from Reata Engineering and Machine Works Thursday, Feb. 15, 2024, in Englewood, Colo. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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Perhaps the likeliest explanation is the greater efficiencies that companies like Batesville Tool & Die have managed to achieve in the past year or so. Before productivity began its resurgent growth last year, a rule of thumb was that average hourly pay could rise no more than 3.5% annually for inflation to stay within the Fed’s 2% target. That would mean that today’s roughly 4% average annual pay growth would have to shrink. Yet higher productivity has changed that equation: There’s now more leeway for wage growth to stay elevated without igniting inflation.

“A lot of that pressure on business finances — that normally causes them to raise prices — has been offset by strong productivity growth,’’ Guatieri said.

At a news conference this month, Powell was asked whether he believed higher productivity helps explain why the economy has kept growing steadily even while inflation has tumbled.

“That’s one way to look at it — yeah,” Powell replied.

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The productivity boom marks a sharp shift from the pre-pandemic years, when annual productivity growth averaged around a tepid 1.5%, according RSM’s calculations. Everything changed as the economy rocketed out of the 2020 pandemic recession with unexpected vigor, and businesses struggled to re-hire the many workers they had shed.

The resulting worker shortage sent wages surging. Inflation jumped, too, as factories and ports buckled under the strain of rising consumer orders. Parts shortages arose.

Desperate, many companies turned to automation. Investment in equipment and in research and development and other forms of intellectual property accelerated. The efficiency payoff began to arrive almost a year ago. Labor productivity rose at a 3.6% annual pace from last April through June, 4.9% from July through September and 3.2% from October through December.

At Reata Engineering & Machine Works, “efficiency was kind of forced on us,’’ CEO Grady Cope said. With the job market roaring, the company, based in Englewood, Colorado, couldn’t hire fast enough. Meantime, its customers were starting to balk at paying higher prices.

Semiconductor pieces sit in a shipping box as they are produced in a Mazak Variaxis machine at Reata Engineering and Machine Works Thursday, Feb. 15, 2024, in Englewood, Colo. Reata, which supplies the aviation and medical device industries, has invested heavily in software that automates its manufacturing processes. It's also been training workers to use more sophisticated equipment. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Semiconductor pieces sit in a shipping box as they are produced in a Mazak Variaxis machine at Reata Engineering and Machine Works Thursday, Feb. 15, 2024, in Englewood, Colo. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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So Reata installed robots and other technology to produce more with less. Software allowed it to automate the delivery of price quotes to customers. That process used to require two weeks. Now, it can be done in 24 hours.

Many economists and business people say they’re hopeful, if not certain, that the productivity boom can continue. Artificial intelligence, they note, is only beginning to penetrate factory floors, warehouses, stores and offices.

“Right now, AI is not a critical enabler for us; it’s an assistant and accelerator in certain roles,’’ said Peter Doyle, CEO of Hirsh Precision, which makes parts for the aerospace and medical device industries. “The world is still trying to understand what AI is capable of doing and how quickly it will advance.’’

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The early evidence suggests that AI could sustain the productivity gains. A study last year by Erik Brynjolfsson of Stanford University and Danielle Li and Lindsey Raymond of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology tracked 5,200 customer-support agents at a Fortune 500 company who used a generative AI-based assistant in 2020 and 2021. The AI tool provided suggestions for dealing with customers and links to useful internal documents.

Those using the chatbot were found to be 14% more productive than colleagues who didn’t use the tool. They handled more calls and completed them faster. The biggest gains in productivity — 34% — came from the least-experienced, least-skilled workers.

Automation tends to raise fears that machines will replace human workers and thereby kill jobs. Some workers supplanted by robots do often struggle to find new work and end up settling for lower pay.

Yet history suggests that in the long run, technological improvements actually create more jobs than they destroy. People are needed to build, upgrade, repair and operate sophisticated machines. Some displaced workers are trained to shift into such jobs. And that transition is likely to be eased this time by the retirement of the vast baby boom generation, which is causing labor shortages.

Some of today’s productivity gains may be coming not just from advanced technology but also from more satisfied workers. The tight labor markets of the past three years allowed Americans to change jobs and find others that pay better and make them happier and more productive.

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One of them was Justin Thompson, of Kalamazoo, Michigan, who had felt burned out by his job as a police officer, with its 16-hour workdays .

“I was literally running myself into the ground,’’ he said.

Thompson’s wife saw a job posting for operations manager at a charter airline. Even without airline experience, his wife felt he could use skills he gains as a Marine Corps infantryman — handling logistics for missions — during tours in Iraq and Afghanistan.

She was right. Omni Air International hired him in 2019.

Thompson, 43, said he he loves the new job, which allows him to work from home when he’s not traveling. And his Marine experience — which included developing ways to improve efficiency — has proved invaluable. Technology helps, too: Thompson travels with a laptop, iPad and mobile printer and uses proprietary software to manage logistics.

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Other workers have switched from low-skill jobs to those that pay better and are more productive.

“The people who were rolling tacos on Dec. 31, 2019 … yeah, they’ve moved up,’’ RSM’s Brusuelas said. “They’re doing other things and making a lot more money.”

At Reata Engineering, staffers were trained to use new sophisticated equipment. One 19-year-old employee, a university engineering student, has used AI tools to make company training materials less cumbersome and time-consuming.

“The whole point is not to lay people off,’’ said Cope, the CEO of Reata Engineering. “The point is to make people do jobs that are more interesting’’ — and pay better, too.

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Family demands answers in death of young Black man in Mississippi

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Family demands answers in death of young Black man in Mississippi
A mother on Friday pleaded for anyone to come forward with information about what happened to her son, a young Black man whose body was found on an island off the coast ​of Mississippi after he traveled there over the Fourth of July weekend with three white friends.
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Gunfire shatters Toronto Latin street festival, leaving at least 2 dead and multiple wounded

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Gunfire shatters Toronto Latin street festival, leaving at least 2 dead and multiple wounded

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The Toronto Police Service is investigating after gunfire broke out Saturday night at a large Latin street festival in Midtown Toronto, leaving at least two people dead and four others wounded.

Police said they received reports of a shooting at St. Clair Avenue West and Arlington Avenue at 8:12 p.m. local time and discovered an active shooter situation.

First responders found six people suffering from gunshot wounds, officials said. Two of the victims were pronounced dead at the scene.

Police respond to an active shooter at the Salsa on St. Clair event in Toronto, Saturday, July 11, 2026. (Keito Newman/The Canadian Press via AP)

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USPS WORKER ARRESTED AFTER ALLEGED MASS SHOOTING THREAT AGAINST TEXAS PRIDE EVENT, FBI SAYS

It is unclear what led to the shooting, and authorities said suspect(s) are still “outstanding.” No arrests have been made as of Saturday evening, police said. 

Toronto Police Deputy Chief Frank Barredo said during a news conference there seemed to be an “exchange of gunfire” between two individuals targeting each other.

“This is a very chaotic scene,” he said. “I think we had something in the neighborhood of 13,000 people participating in this festival.”

Police initially described the incident as an active shooter situation before later determining that was not the case.

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Police officers stand guard at the site of a deadly shooting at a salsa-themed street festival in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, July 11, 2026. (REUTERS/Cole Burston)

“There was some concern of an active shooter. That turned out not to be the case,” Barredo said.

Barredo said authorities were managing three separate crime scenes connected to the shooting. Two firearms have been recovered, he added.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said he was “horrified” by the shooting.

“My prayers are with the families grieving their loved ones, those who are in critical condition, and everyone who has been affected by this horrific event,” he said in a statement.

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“My thanks to the police officers and other first responders whose courage and fast action prevented further tragedy,” he continued. “Police have my full support as they work to apprehend the perpetrators and bring them to justice.

Paramedics respond to an active shooter at the Salsa on St. Clair event in Toronto, Saturday.  (Keito Newman/The Canadian Press via AP)

FOUR DEAD AND 29 SHOT IN CHICAGO WEEKEND VIOLENCE AS LEADERS TOUT CRIME PROGRESS

Following the shooting, the Toronto Transit Commission suspended train stops at the nearby St. Clair West station on Line 1 Yonge-University due to what officials described as a “security incident.”

Regular transit service has since resumed.

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Authorities urged the public to avoid the area and follow all directives from police at the scene.

The TD Salsa on St. Clair Festival, Toronto’s biggest Latin culture celebration, was celebrating its 22nd annual event in Toronto’s Hillcrest Village.

Emergency Task Force vehicles and police officers are seen on the site of a shooting in Toronto on Saturday. (Jorge UZON / AFP via Getty Images)

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The Toronto Police Service told Fox News Digital no further information is available.

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This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.

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Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, architect of modern Qatar

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Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, architect of modern Qatar

Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, the former emir of Qatar who transformed the small Gulf state into one of the world’s wealthiest and most influential nations through its vast natural gas wealth and an ambitious programme of political, economic and social reforms, has died. He was 74.

A charismatic figure with a friendly demeanor, the father Emir assumed the reins of power in 1995. Regarded as the architect of modern Qatar, he embarked on forging development and reform plans and education programs.

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During his reign, Qatar’s GDP increased more than twenty-fourfold, while production from the North Field turned the country into the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas by 2006. After four years, the small nation’s LNG production capacity reached 77 million tons per annum, according to government’s figure.

His tenure also saw the establishment of the Qatar Foundation, the launch of Al Jazeera News Channel in 1996, the promulgation of Qatar’s first permanent constitution in 2004 and the introduction of municipal elections in which women were granted the right to vote and stand as candidates. Under his leadership, the Gulf nation also adopted the Qatar National Vision 2030 and secured the right to host the 2022 FIFA World Cup.

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Born in Doha in January 1952, Sheikh Hamad graduated from the British Royal Military Academy at Sandhurst before becoming commander of Qatar’s armed forces. He became heir apparent and defence minister in 1977, assumed power as emir on June 27, 1995, and handed over leadership to his son, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, on June 25, 2013.

“The future lies ahead of you, the children of this homeland, as you usher into a new era where young leadership hoists the banner,” Sheikh Hamad said as he announced his abdication and the carefully crafted transition to his son, the British-educated crown prince Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, who was then 33.

The peaceful, voluntary transfer of power was rare in a region where such change usually results from death or overthrow.

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