World
Mexico Managed to Stave Off Trump’s Tariffs. Now What?
Follow live updates on President Trump’s tariffs and the global fallout.
To broad relief across her country, President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico announced on Monday that she had forestalled a plan by the Trump administration to impose 25 percent tariffs on Mexican goods. Initially set to go into effect at the stroke of midnight, the tariffs have been delayed by a month, she said.
“We have this month to work, to convince each other that this is the best way forward,” Ms. Sheinbaum said at her regular morning news conference after speaking to President Trump. Suggesting that she might be able hold off the penalties altogether, she said she had told her American counterpart: “We are going to deliver results. Good results for your people, good results for the Mexican people.”
The announcement was seen as a victory for the Mexican government in dealing with Mr. Trump, who has set a new tone of aggression in the first weeks of his presidency. He has demanded that even some of the United States’ closest allies acquiesce to his demands or face consequences in the form of tariffs or perhaps even military force.
The deal, however, will force Mexico into a critical 30-day test during which it must not only continue its recent progress but also make still more headway on two of the country’s most enduring challenges: drug trafficking and migration.
Under the terms of the agreement, Mexico will post an additional 10,000 Mexican National Guardsmen on the border. In return, Ms. Sheinbaum said, the U.S. government will work to stop the flow of arms into Mexico.
In his own statement, Mr. Trump made no mention of a promise to help curb firearms trafficking, but he celebrated the deployment of Mexican troops.
While Mexico has spent the past year stepping up its immigration enforcement, which has already contributed to a drastic reduction in U.S. border crossings, the issue of drug trafficking is much more complicated. It will require Mexico to have “a very clear, very well-defined plan,” said Ildefonso Guajardo, a former economy minister who negotiated with the first Trump administration.
Mr. Trump and Thomas Homan, the administration’s border czar, have repeatedly laid blame for the fentanyl overdose crisis in the United States on Mexican cartels as well as on migrants they say move the drug across the border. Mr. Homan falsely told Fox News that Mexican cartels had “killed a quarter of a million Americans with fentanyl.”
Since 2019, Mexico has displaced China as the biggest supplier of fentanyl to the United States. Besides being extraordinarily potent, the drug is very easy to make — and even easier to smuggle across the border, hidden under clothes or in glove compartments. According to U.S. prosecutors, the Sinaloa Cartel spends only $800 on chemicals to produce a kilo that can net a profit of up to $640,000 in the United States.
Mexico has been the source of almost all of the fentanyl seized by U.S. law enforcement in recent years, and the amount crossing the border has increased tenfold in the past five years. But federal data shows it is brought in not by migrants but by American citizens recruited by cartel organizations. More than 80 percent of the people who have been sentenced for fentanyl trafficking at the southern border are U.S. citizens.
“All that makes it incredibly harder to go after and control the market,” said Jaime López-Aranda, a security analyst based in Mexico City.
Ms. Sheinbaum’s administration has already stepped up efforts to combat fentanyl since she took office in October, including the largest seizure of the drug — about 20 million doses — ever recorded in Mexico. Security forces regularly report advances on arrests and dismantled drug-production labs.
But experts question how much of a dent these efforts truly represent. “Mexico can keep carrying out symbolic actions like it has been doing lately,” Mr. López-Aranda said, “but there is little more it can do.”
Waging a full war on the cartels would likely backfire and set off more waves of violence across Mexico, analysts say. The country has experienced those consequences before.
Upon taking office in 2006, President Felipe Calderón declared a war on criminal groups. The idea was to eradicate them and loosen their grip on the country. But targeting cartel leaders and engaging in direct confrontations only led to these groups splintering into more violent, brutal cells, leading to one of Mexico’s bloodiest periods.
“What is even going to happen after we destroy all the labs?” said Mr. Guajardo. “These guys are just going to focus more on extortion, theft and killings. Mexico will be left to deal with the problem alone.”
Under the agreement announced on Monday, Mexico will also bolster security forces at the border. Unlike the United States, Mexico does not have a specific security force dedicated to patrolling the border, instead relying on a combination of the military and National Guard.
Experts questioned how effective a deployment of 10,000 additional troops would be at delivering Mexico’s promised results when it came to fentanyl.
“Ten thousand members perhaps sounds like a lot, but it’s all in the details,” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, a drug policy researcher at the Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation at U.C. San Diego. “If you’re only going to have them at the border, that doesn’t address the entire fentanyl production chain.”
Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, a senior fellow at the American Immigration Council, noted that this is the third time in six years that Mexico has committed to sending a large deployment of National Guard to the U.S. border.
While Mexico’s forces will “try to achieve results at all costs,” a more effective strategy would be to have officials from both countries share more intelligence and information to stop the flow of drugs, said Jonathan Maza, a Mexican-based security analyst.
The lack of cooperation was something that American officials complained about during the administration of Ms. Sheinbaum’s predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
Given the importance to Mexico of avoiding tariffs, Mr. Maza said the National Guard may achieve results in the short and medium term. But, he warned, criminal groups are likely to adapt.
On curbing migration and illegal crossings at the border, Mexico may have a more straightforward path to success, having adopted several effective measures in the last year.
National Guard troops are deployed to immigration checkpoints from north to south, and migration officials have also instituted a policy of “decompression” in which migrants are bused from concentrated areas in the north farther south to keep pressure off the border. The Mexican authorities have used busing on occasion for years, but its expansion in 2024 highlighted the country’s toughening policies on migration.
Breaking up migrant caravans headed for the United States is another step Mexican officials have taken in recent years. When several emerged in the weeks leading up to Mr. Trump taking office, they were all disbanded.
Mexico’s tougher stance, paired with President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s executive order last summer to essentially prevent undocumented migrants from receiving asylum at the border, contributed to a dramatic reduction in illegal immigration at the border in 2024. In December, U.S. Border Patrol officials recorded only 47,326 illegal crossings — a sharp drop from the record 249,740 documented a year earlier.
The Mexican authorities have also introduced bureaucratic hurdles for migrants and asylum seekers.
“Mexico’s strategy has exhausted and worn down migrants,” said Mauro Pérez Bravo, the former head of the National Migration Institute’s citizen council, which evaluates the country’s migration policies. “What it did was to emotionally and physically drain people to keep them from getting to the United States.”
In exchange for deploying troops to the border and stemming the flow of fentanyl and migrants into the United States, Ms. Sheinbaum said she secured Mr. Trump’s agreement to do more to prevent American-manufactured firearms from entering Mexico.
“These high-powered weapons that arrive illegally arm the criminal groups and give them firepower,” she said.
This is not the first time that Mexico has made that argument.
In 2021, the country sued several gun makers and one distributor, blaming them for the devastating, decades-long bloodshed from which Mexico has struggled to recover. The U.S. Supreme Court will decide this year whether Mexico may sue gun manufacturers in the United States. A recent analysis showed that nearly 9,000 gun dealers operate across cities in Arizona, California, New Mexico and Texas.
But in his own remarks, Mr. Trump did not make any mention of Ms. Sheinbaum’s request. It is unclear how his administration could actually fulfill such a commitment and what, if anything, Mexico would do should it fail to do so.
James Wagner, Paulina Villegas and Simon Romero contributed reporting.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said on Wednesday that Hamas sent a 4-year-old Palestinian boy to one of its outposts. The IDF says it returned the toddler to Gaza in coordination with international organizations.
“Hamas does not hesitate to use any means to cynically use and exploit civilians and children to advance its terrorism,” the IDF wrote on X.
The child allegedly told IDF soldiers that Hamas sent him, but Israel did not provide information on how the boy knew the terrorist organization sent him there.
The IDF says Hamas sent a 4-year-old boy toward a military outpost. (IDF)
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IDF International Spokesperson Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani condemned the incident in a post on X, saying that it demonstrated Hamas’ lack of care for civilians.
“Another reminder that Hamas doesn’t care about the people of Gaza and exploits them for terror,” Lt. Col. Shoshani wrote.
Israeli soldiers speak to a Palestinian child who was allegedly sent by Hamas towards their outpost. The child was returned to Gaza.
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During the Oct. 7 massacre, Hamas not only killed Israeli children, but took several as hostages. In November 2023, as part of a deal, Hamas released 30 children from captivity. The last two child hostages in Gaza were Ariel and Kfir Bibas. Their fate remained uncertain for months, until their deaths were confirmed in February 2025 when their bodies were returned to Israel.
“Kfir and Ariel were murdered in cold blood. The terrorists didn’t shoot them—they killed them with their bare hands. Then, they committed horrific acts to cover up their crimes,” IDF Spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said following the return of the Bibas children’s remains.
IDF forces are seen operating in Rafah, a city in the Gaza Strip. (IDF Spokesman’s Office)
Israeli U.N. Ambassador Danny Danon called on U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to issue a condemnation of the incident involving the 4-year-old Palestinian child.
“Hamas has a genocidal animosity toward Israelis and equally doesn’t care for the people of Gaza. That’s why the terrorist organization uses babies, children and women as human shields and pawns in conflict. This is contemptible and should be roundly condemned by the United Nations secretary-general,” Ambassador Danon said.
Just last week, the U.N. was slammed over a draft of its report on children in combat zones that appeared to omit stories of Israeli victims.
Throughout the section of the report on Israeli and Palestinian children, there are instances of the U.N. conflicting verified and unverified data. Though the report admits that there is unverified data, it does not give any information on who was responsible for verifying the other figures. This lack of transparency left room to doubt the report’s accuracy.
President Donald Trump’s tariffs on the imports of steel and aluminium by the United States are sending shockwaves through global markets and escalating tensions with key trading partners, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union.
Some countries are fighting back with retaliatory tariffs, others are seeking exemptions, and a few are trying to negotiate their way out of the 25 percent tariffs.
So, who is escalating the trade war, who is trying to avoid it, and what does this mean for the industries that rely on these metals?
Who supplies steel and aluminium to the US?
Canada, Brazil, and Mexico are the top three suppliers of steel to the US, collectively accounting for about 49 percent of its imports between March 2024 and January 2025, according to the International Trade Administration. The remaining leading suppliers are South Korea, Vietnam, Japan, Germany, Taiwan, the Netherlands, and China, which together make up 30 percent of US steel imports.
Here is a breakdown:
- Canada – 16 percent
- Brazil – 14 percent
- Mexico – 9 percent
- South Korea – 8 percent
- China – 2 percent
For aluminium, the biggest suppliers are Canada, the United Arab Emirates, Russia and Mexico. Canada is the dominant supplier, responsible for nearly 40 percent of US aluminium imports, followed by the UAE, Russia and Mexico.
The tariff war will have a widespread effect on manufacturers and consumers in the US as steel and aluminium are crucial in the making of home appliances, cars, planes, phones and buildings, among others.
Steel is a backbone material for construction, manufacturing, transport, and energy, with the construction sector using one-third of all steel imports. It will push up costs for infrastructure projects, including airports, schools and roads.
Aluminium, being lightweight and corrosion-resistant, is essential for the automotive and aerospace industries, as well as food and beverage packaging.
The US is particularly dependent on aluminium imports, with roughly half of the metal used in the country coming from foreign sources.
The US import of steel and aluminium last year was $31bn and $27bn, respectively, according to the US Department of Commerce data.
Vina Nadjibulla, vice president of research and strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, said the tariffs are especially damaging because there is “little economic or genuine national security rationale for them”.
“The US can’t realistically onshore enough of these commodities, so the duties mainly create economic pain for American consumers and key trading partners,” Nadjibulla told Al Jazeera.
They instead introduce a level of “unpredictability and volatility we haven’t seen in decades”.
By undermining established trade norms, the US “effectively encourages other nations to respond in kind, with devastating impact for the stock markets and investor and consumer confidence across North America and beyond”, Nadjibulla said.
How are countries responding?
Canada
The biggest steel and aluminium supplier to the US has taken a strong stance against the tariffs. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has called the tariffs “unjustifiable” and a “dumb thing to do”.
Canada announced 25 percent retaliatory tariffs on $20.6bn worth of US goods, including $8.8bn on steel and $2bn in aluminium imports. It has also imposed an additional tariff of nearly $10bn on US goods such as computers and servers, display monitors, water heaters and sports equipment, among others.
These countermeasures take effect on Thursday.
“We are going to stand up for our workers, and we are going to make sure the American people understand that their leadership’s decisions have consequences,” Trudeau said earlier this week.
Mark Carney, who will succeed Trudeau as prime minister, has pledged to maintain the tariffs until the US commits to fair trade practices. He said he is willing to take “a much more comprehensive approach for trade”.
“We firmly believe that in a world fraught with geopolitical and economic uncertainties, it is not in our common interest to burden our economies with tariffs,” he said on Wednesday.
The latest tariffs are in addition to the 25 percent counter-tariffs on $20.8bn of US imports, imposed on March 4 in retaliation to the previous Trump levy that has since been delayed by a month.
European Union
The EU has also announced retaliatory measures targeting more than $28bn worth of US goods such as motorcycles, peanut butter, and jeans, among others. These measures will roll out in two phases:
- Phase 1 (April 1) – Reinstating previously suspended tariffs on $8.7bn worth of US products, including steel, aluminium, bourbon, and motorcycles. The counter levies, which were imposed between 2018 and 2020 during Trump’s first term, were suspended under the Biden administration.
- Phase 2 (mid-April) – Introducing new tariffs on an additional $19.6bn worth of US exports, such as poultry, dairy products, fruits, and cereals.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has warned that these tariffs will increase prices and threaten jobs on both sides of the Atlantic.
“We deeply regret this measure. Tariffs are taxes. They are bad for business and even worse for consumers,” she said, adding that the EU “will always remain open to negotiation”.
Mexico
Mexico’s response remains unclear. President Claudia Sheinbaum has indicated that any retaliatory tariffs would be implemented only if negotiations fail. However, she has already struck a temporary waiver deal with Trump, securing an exemption until April 2 for Mexican imports under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trade agreement signed under Trump’s first term.
However, analysts say goods that do not comply with the USMCA could still attract the new 25 percent tariffs.
This comes after Mexico and Canada negotiated a one-month delay in the tariffs, during which both countries agreed to boost border security measures. Trump has followed through with his campaign promise to impose tariffs on Mexico until it stopped immigration and drug trafficking through its borders.
Brazil
Despite being one of the hardest-hit nations, Brazil has chosen diplomacy over retaliation. Brazilian officials are engaging in talks with Washington in hopes of securing an exemption.
The government led by left-wing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva issued a statement regretting the “unjustifiable” move by the US.
“President Lula told us to remain calm, noting that in the past we have negotiated under conditions that were even more unfavourable than the current ones,” Finance Minister Fernando Haddad told reporters on Wednesday.
South Korea
Trump has accused South Korea of taking advantage of the US, adding that Seoul’s average tariff is four times higher, without providing proof. The trade between the two close allies is almost tariff-free due to a free trade agreement.
“And we give so much help militarily and in so many other ways to South Korea. But that’s what happens,” Trump said during his address to the US Congress earlier this month.
He also promised to scrap the CHIPS and Science Act, under which several Korean companies, including Samsung Electronics, receive US assistance.
South Korea has opted for negotiation rather than confrontation. It has also activated a “full emergency response mode” to protect local industries.
On Tuesday, South Korea’s acting President Choi Sang-mok said Trump’s “America First” policy had started targeting his country.
South Korean officials have actively sought dialogue with their US counterparts to negotiate potential exemptions and address mutual concerns. Trade Minister Cheong In-kyo is scheduled to visit Washington, DC, on March 13-14, aiming to discuss reciprocal tariffs and investment opportunities.
The visit seeks to influence the Trump administration’s trade policy report and to present South Korea’s stance on tariffs.
China
Beijing is not a leading steel supplier to the US. However, it has taken the tariffs as a direct economic attack and responded aggressively.
Mao Ning, spokesperson at the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told reporters the move was in violation of World Trade Organization rules, and that China, the world’s largest steel producer and the second-largest economy, will take all necessary measures to safeguard its rights and interests.
“No one wins in a trade war or a tariff war,” the spokesperson said.
China has already slapped tariffs on the US in retaliation to the 20 percent blanket tariff imposed by Trump.
How will the tariff war affect US ties with its allies?
Australia, another key US ally which has been affected by Trump’s tariffs, said it would not retaliate. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese called the tariff “entirely unjustified”, but ruled out reciprocal tariffs as it would affect Australian consumers.
Canberra had managed to get an exemption from steel and aluminium tariffs under Trump’s first term.
According to Nadjibulla, these tariffs paint an image that the US is becoming “an unreliable partner for its closest allies”.
She said countries such as Canada, Australia, and South Korea “will look to minimise their vulnerabilities” and pursue strategies like diversifying trade partners.
“When large economies engage in tit-for-tat tariff escalations, the risk of a global trade slowdown looms larger,” she said. “These measures don’t just hurt the near-term bottom line – they threaten the entire framework of open trade that has underpinned much of the world’s economic growth and stability.”
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