Iowa
Iowa voters shifted left in 2025. Is a blue wave coming in 2026?
In five of six legislative special elections last year, Democrats overperformed by more than 20 percentage points compared with the 2024 presidential election.
Here are the top 2026 midterm races to follow in Iowa
Des Moines Register Chief Politics Reporter Brianne Pfannenstiel breaks down Iowa’s top races ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Iowa Democrats ended 2025 on a high note, winning a Dec. 30 special election in Des Moines’ western suburbs by a wider margin than during the presidential election.
That capped off a year in which Democrats won four of the six legislative special elections and ended Republicans’ supermajority in the Iowa Senate.
In five of those six special elections, Democrats overperformed by more than 20 percentage points compared with 2024.
They’ll look to build off the momentum going into the pivotal 2026 midterms that will include open races for governor and U.S. senator as well as regular Iowa congressional and Legislature elections.
Whether 2025’s Democratic Party victories are bellwethers or blips will play out this year.
Democrats saw Iowa special elections consistently tilt left
Though Republicans won in two special elections in 2025s, their margins of victory were significantly smaller than 2024.
Republican Wendy Larson won December’s special election for the vacant seat in House District 7 by 40 points. That’s a wide margin, but wide margins are expected for Republicans in that part of the state: The party holds strong advantages in voter registration totals in Calhoun, Pocahontas, Sac and Webster counties, where the district is located.
And even that 40-point margin represented a shift toward the Democrats.
In the 2024 presidential election, Republican Donald Trump defeated Democrat Kamala Harris by 50 points in House District 7. Democrats didn’t even field a candidate for the district’s legislative seat that year.
The 10-point shift toward Democrats from the 2024 presidential election to the 2025 special election in House District 7 was the smallest of any legislative district that held a special election last year.
Each of the five other districts shifted toward Democrats by more than twice as much.
Moreover, those special elections were spread across the state.
Democrats consistently gathered a greater share of votes from Senate District 1 in the northwest part of the state to House District 100 in the state’s southeast corner, ranging from 10 to 26 percentage points.
The two seats Democrats flipped in special elections — Senate Districts 1 and 35 — each shifted to the left by more than 20 points compared with the 2024 presidential election.
In Senate District 1, Trump outpaced Harris by 11 percentage points in 2024, while Democrat Caitlin Drey won the seat there by more than 10 points in August.
In Senate District 35, Trump’s victory margin in Senate District 35 was more than 21 points. In January 2025, Democrat Mike Zimmer won the district’s Senate seat by 3½ points.
In 2022, Republicans won both those seats by even wider margins than Trump in 2024.
Should Democrats expect momentum to carry over to 2026?
Pushing voters to the left in six isolated special elections is one thing. Parlaying those successes into November’s midterm elections is quite another.
Turnout was key in 2025’s special elections, and it will be again in 2026.
The numbers of votes cast in 2025’s special elections equaled roughly one-quarter to one-third the votes cast in the 2024 presidential election in those districts.
Turnout should be higher in November’s midterms.
Since 2000, the percentage of Iowa’s registered voters who have participated in the midterm elections typically has hovered around 55%. (About 75% of registered Iowans usually vote in presidential elections.)
But what determines an election is less about the number of people who show up and more about who those people are.
An increased share of those who went to the polls in the special elections were Democratic voters — or, perhaps more accurately, a greater number of Republican voters stayed home.
Republicans will be working to get those voters back to the polls this November.
Republicans maintain advantage in Iowa voter registration data
The leftward shift in last year’s special elections has yet to materialize in Iowa’s voter registration numbers.
Over roughly the past 15 years, voter registrations in Iowa have swung heavily toward Republicans.
Democrats, conversely, have lost 200,000 voters in that time, and Republicans have opened up an overall advantage of more than 10 percentage points.
Despite their victories at the ballot box in 2025, Democrats have not chipped into Republicans’ significant lead in voter registrations.
Last year was the first since at least 2000 when the share of active voters who were Republicans was at least 10 percentage points higher than the share who were Democrats throughout the entire year.
Republicans began 2026 with nearly 200,000 more active registered voters than Democrats, among their largest leads this century.
Those two parties do not comprise the entirety of Iowa’s electorate — a large share of Iowa’s active voters are not registered to a party, and a smaller amount are registered to other parties, including Libertarians.
And just because a voter is registered as a Democrat or Republican doesn’t mean they’ll vote for their party’s candidates.
But the large voter deficit indicates Democrats are starting from a less favorable position.
Their special election victories in 2025 proved they can win elections, but they’ll need to make up some ground to replicate that success in 2026.
Tim Webber is a data visualization specialist for the Register. Reach him at twebber@registermedia.com and on Twitter at @HelloTimWebber.
How much rain does Des Moines get? See the 5 wettest days on record
Wondering how the rainfall total compares? Here are the five wettest days on record for Des Moines, Iowa.
Drought conditions in Iowa improved for a second consecutive week, though areas of moderate drought expanded in parts of the state.
The U.S. Drought Monitor offers a state-by-state tracking of drought conditions nationwide. New maps and forecasts are released each Thursday. What are the current drought conditions in Iowa?
U.S. Drought Monitor map: How much of Iowa is in a drought?
The latest Drought Monitor report, released on Thursday, June 18, showed about 46% of Iowa experiencing some form of drought. This continues the streak of conditions improving week to week in Iowa. The previous report, released on June 11, showed that 63% of the state was experiencing some form of drought.
The most recent report reflects conditions as of 8 a.m. June 16, right as storms were sweeping through Iowa, with parts of eastern Iowa seeing more than 2 inches of rainfall. Light rainfall on June 17 led to areas like Iowa City and Burlington reporting around an inch of rain.
Here is the breakdown of current drought conditions in Iowa:
- 61% of the state of Iowa is experiencing no drought conditions
- 39% of Iowa is experiencing abnormally dry conditions
- 7% of Iowa is experiencing moderate drought conditions
- 0% of Iowa is experiencing severe drought conditions
Even though drought conditions have improved overall in Iowa, the area experiencing moderate drought increased from the week of June 11, particularly in northern Iowa. Much of Cerro Gordo, Hancock and Kossuth counties are under D1 conditions, with nearby Palo Alto, Winnebago, Floyd and Mitchell also in moderate drought.
Pockets of moderate drought also persist along the northwest edge of Iowa in Lyon, Sioux and Plymouth counties. In eastern Iowa, Jackson, Clinton and Scott counties saw their moderate drought status ease week to week.
Most of the U.S. is facing drought conditions
About 73% of the U.S. is experiencing some level of drought, a 2-percentage-point improvement from the prior week. Some of the most intense drought conditions are in the southeast and the mountain west.
Iowa Drought Monitor tracks conditions weekly
The U.S. Drought Monitor offers a state-by-state tracking of drought conditions nationwide. New maps and forecasts are released each Thursday.
The intensity levels range from abnormally dry, or D0, to exceptional drought, or D4.
Typically with D0 conditions, corn can show drought stress. Pond levels start to decline under moderate drought conditions and soybeans abort pods, according to the Drought Monitor. The Drought Monitor also has a look-back chart that compares drought conditions from 3 months ago up to 1 year ago.
Cooper Worth is a service/trending reporter for the Des Moines Register. Reach him at cworth@gannett.com or follow him on X @CooperAWorth.
Confirmed tornadoes were reported in Illinois and Iowa Wednesday night as severe weather descended on a large swath of the Midwest.
According to the National Weather Service, a confirmed tornado was reported near the small northeast Iowa community of Harpers Ferry at 5:10 p.m., while a second confirmed tornado rolled through Charleston in central Illinois at about 6:40 p.m. local time.
Both tornadoes were flagged by the weather service as a “particularly dangerous situation,” a rare designation used by the weather service for environments in which “strong and violent tornadoes” are possible.
Photos and videos obtained by CBS News showed extensive damage in Charleston, with downed trees and power lines. Hail that measured 2.75 inches was also reported in the Charleston area, according to the weather service.
“There are a large number of trees blocking roadways throughout Charleston at this time,” Charleston police said in a Facebook post. “Unless it is an absolute emergency, do not drive or attempt to go anywhere.”
The city of Charleston later declared a local state of emergency.
One cell phone video captured the terrifying moments what appeared to be a large tornado tore through Effingham, Illinois, located about 40 miles southwest of Charleston.
Larry Thies, coordinator for the Effingham Emergency Management Agency, told CBS News that initial information indicated damaged buildings, trailers, and downed power lines and trees. He said officials were working to set up an emergency operations center, but were facing challenges because internet was down in the area.
The extent of the damage to region was still unclear. There was no immediate word of injuries or fatalities. CBS News senior meteorologist Rob Marciano said there were at least seven reported tornadoes during the weather event.
According to utility tracker PowerOutage.us, at least 55,000 customers were without power in Illinois.
Earlier Wednesday, Marciano reported that more than 125 million Americans were facing severe weather advisories, including the Gulf Coast states, which were under flood alerts due to Tropical Storm Arthur. Speaking on “CBS Evening News,” Marciano said such ripe tornado conditions were rare for June.
“This is unique for June, this is unusual to have such a strong jet stream just screaming across the country, then you’ve got the summertime tropical moisture coming in…and then some cold air coming in,” Marciano said. “And winds coming at different direction, at different levels, creating that spin. So what that equates to is really the high probability of seeing, not just tornadoes, but intense tornadoes of EF2 strength or higher on the ground for a long time. And also damaging winds at 75 mph or higher, and of course big time hail.”
When is Juneteenth and how is the holiday celebrated
Juneteenth is coming up. Here is what the holiday is about and how it’s celebrated.
It is a busy weekend in Iowa City as summer officially begins on Sunday. From Iowa City Pride and Juneteenth celebrations, there is no shortage of activity happening around town.
Here are four events to check out.
Enter the whimsical world of ‘A Midsummer Night’s Dream’ at Lower City Park
Thursday to Sunday: Riverside Theatre’s summer tradition, Shakespeare in the Park, has returned to Lower City Park. Catch a free performance of William Shakespeare’s iconic comedy, “A Midsummer Night’s Dream,” that follows the chaotic events of four entangled lovers and a troupe of actors wandering into a mystical forest. All of the free shows through the weekend start at 7:30 p.m.
Celebrate Juneteenth with live entertainment and community
Friday: The Black Voices Project and Dream City are teaming up to host the community-wide Juneteenth Celebration. At 1 p.m. Friday, June 19, at the South District Market Parking lot, enjoy live music from Kevin Burt, along with community presentations, activities for all ages, and a fashion showcase.
Show your pride at Iowa City Pride events
Saturday: Iowa City Pride is back for the 56th year. Principal events, the Pride Parade and Pride Festival, will start at noon on Saturday, June 20. The festival will be on the Ped Mall, and the parade will begin at College Green Park, working its way downtown along Iowa Avenue and East Washington Street. The festival runs from 12 to 9 p.m.
Catch a romantic comedy under the stars at FilmScene in the Park
Saturday: FilmScene in the Park returns at 9:15 p.m., Saturday, June 20, with a screening of the cult classic “13 Going on 30″ at Chauncey Swan Park. Seating is on a first-come, first-served basis. Concessions, including beer and wine, will be available 30 minutes before the film begins.
Jessica Rish is an entertainment, dining and education reporter for the Iowa City Press-Citizen. She can be reached at JRish@press-citizen.com or on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @rishjessica_
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