Iowa
Iowa voters shifted left in 2025. Is a blue wave coming in 2026?
In five of six legislative special elections last year, Democrats overperformed by more than 20 percentage points compared with the 2024 presidential election.
Here are the top 2026 midterm races to follow in Iowa
Des Moines Register Chief Politics Reporter Brianne Pfannenstiel breaks down Iowa’s top races ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Iowa Democrats ended 2025 on a high note, winning a Dec. 30 special election in Des Moines’ western suburbs by a wider margin than during the presidential election.
That capped off a year in which Democrats won four of the six legislative special elections and ended Republicans’ supermajority in the Iowa Senate.
In five of those six special elections, Democrats overperformed by more than 20 percentage points compared with 2024.
They’ll look to build off the momentum going into the pivotal 2026 midterms that will include open races for governor and U.S. senator as well as regular Iowa congressional and Legislature elections.
Whether 2025’s Democratic Party victories are bellwethers or blips will play out this year.
Democrats saw Iowa special elections consistently tilt left
Though Republicans won in two special elections in 2025s, their margins of victory were significantly smaller than 2024.
Republican Wendy Larson won December’s special election for the vacant seat in House District 7 by 40 points. That’s a wide margin, but wide margins are expected for Republicans in that part of the state: The party holds strong advantages in voter registration totals in Calhoun, Pocahontas, Sac and Webster counties, where the district is located.
And even that 40-point margin represented a shift toward the Democrats.
In the 2024 presidential election, Republican Donald Trump defeated Democrat Kamala Harris by 50 points in House District 7. Democrats didn’t even field a candidate for the district’s legislative seat that year.
The 10-point shift toward Democrats from the 2024 presidential election to the 2025 special election in House District 7 was the smallest of any legislative district that held a special election last year.
Each of the five other districts shifted toward Democrats by more than twice as much.
Moreover, those special elections were spread across the state.
Democrats consistently gathered a greater share of votes from Senate District 1 in the northwest part of the state to House District 100 in the state’s southeast corner, ranging from 10 to 26 percentage points.
The two seats Democrats flipped in special elections — Senate Districts 1 and 35 — each shifted to the left by more than 20 points compared with the 2024 presidential election.
In Senate District 1, Trump outpaced Harris by 11 percentage points in 2024, while Democrat Caitlin Drey won the seat there by more than 10 points in August.
In Senate District 35, Trump’s victory margin in Senate District 35 was more than 21 points. In January 2025, Democrat Mike Zimmer won the district’s Senate seat by 3½ points.
In 2022, Republicans won both those seats by even wider margins than Trump in 2024.
Should Democrats expect momentum to carry over to 2026?
Pushing voters to the left in six isolated special elections is one thing. Parlaying those successes into November’s midterm elections is quite another.
Turnout was key in 2025’s special elections, and it will be again in 2026.
The numbers of votes cast in 2025’s special elections equaled roughly one-quarter to one-third the votes cast in the 2024 presidential election in those districts.
Turnout should be higher in November’s midterms.
Since 2000, the percentage of Iowa’s registered voters who have participated in the midterm elections typically has hovered around 55%. (About 75% of registered Iowans usually vote in presidential elections.)
But what determines an election is less about the number of people who show up and more about who those people are.
An increased share of those who went to the polls in the special elections were Democratic voters — or, perhaps more accurately, a greater number of Republican voters stayed home.
Republicans will be working to get those voters back to the polls this November.
Republicans maintain advantage in Iowa voter registration data
The leftward shift in last year’s special elections has yet to materialize in Iowa’s voter registration numbers.
Over roughly the past 15 years, voter registrations in Iowa have swung heavily toward Republicans.
Democrats, conversely, have lost 200,000 voters in that time, and Republicans have opened up an overall advantage of more than 10 percentage points.
Despite their victories at the ballot box in 2025, Democrats have not chipped into Republicans’ significant lead in voter registrations.
Last year was the first since at least 2000 when the share of active voters who were Republicans was at least 10 percentage points higher than the share who were Democrats throughout the entire year.
Republicans began 2026 with nearly 200,000 more active registered voters than Democrats, among their largest leads this century.
Those two parties do not comprise the entirety of Iowa’s electorate — a large share of Iowa’s active voters are not registered to a party, and a smaller amount are registered to other parties, including Libertarians.
And just because a voter is registered as a Democrat or Republican doesn’t mean they’ll vote for their party’s candidates.
But the large voter deficit indicates Democrats are starting from a less favorable position.
Their special election victories in 2025 proved they can win elections, but they’ll need to make up some ground to replicate that success in 2026.
Tim Webber is a data visualization specialist for the Register. Reach him at twebber@registermedia.com and on Twitter at @HelloTimWebber.
The Iowa Lottery offers several draw games for those aiming to win big with rewards ranging from $1,000 to millions. The most an Iowan has ever won from playing the lottery was $343 million in 2018 off the Powerball.
Don’t miss out on the winnings. Here’s a look at Friday, May 8, 2026, winning numbers for each game:
Winning Mega Millions numbers from May 8 drawing
37-47-49-51-58, Mega Ball: 16
Check Mega Millions payouts and previous drawings here.
Winning Pick-3 numbers from May 8 drawing
Midday: 0-5-8
Evening: 9-9-2
Check Pick-3 payouts and previous drawings here.
Winning Pick-4 numbers from May 8 drawing
Midday: 0-2-7-3
Evening: 0-7-0-6
Check Pick-4 payouts and previous drawings here.
Winning Millionaire for Life numbers from May 8 drawing
14-16-21-43-51, Bonus: 03
Check Millionaire for Life payouts and previous drawings here.
Feeling lucky? Explore the latest lottery news & results
When are the Iowa Lottery drawings held?
- Powerball: 9:59 p.m. CT on Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday.
- Mega Millions: 10:00 p.m. CT on Tuesday and Friday.
- Lotto America: 9:15 p.m. CT on Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday.
- Lucky for Life: 9:38 p.m. CT daily.
- Pick 3 (Day): 12:20 p.m. CT daily.
- Pick 3 (Evening): 10:00 p.m. CT daily.
- Pick 4 (Day): 12:20 p.m. CT daily.
- Pick 4 (Evening): 10:00 p.m. CT daily.
- Millionaire for Life: 10:15 p.m. CT daily.
This results page was generated automatically using information from TinBu and a template written and reviewed by an Iowa editor. You can send feedback using this form.
IOWA — Iowa’s new restrictions on SNAP benefits are drawing concern from advocates who say the changes could make it harder for families to buy food and could put future summer assistance for children at risk.
The state’s SNAP waiver took effect January 1, 2026, limiting what items can be purchased based on Iowa’s taxable food list. While that includes widely discussed restrictions on soda and candy, the policy also affects certain prepared foods, creating confusion for shoppers.
“Something as small as whether or not a utensil is included in a food item actually impacts whether or not you can continue to purchase that item using your SNAP benefits,” Paige Chickering, Iowa State Manager for the Save the Children Action Network, said.
Advocates say the rules can be difficult to navigate, especially for people relying on quick meals. Items like prepackaged salads or sandwiches may or may not qualify depending on how they are packaged.
At the same time, new legislation slated for the next session at the statehouse could make those restrictions more permanent by requiring Iowa to continue seeking federal approval for the waiver.
That’s raising additional concerns about the future of Summer EBT, also known as “Sun Bucks,” which provides food assistance to children when school is out.
“This makes that food assistance dependent on a decision made in Washington, D.C. that is just arbitrary and not really dependent on the needs of Iowans and Iowa children,” Chickering said.
The program is expected to help around 220,000 children in Iowa during the summer months. Advocates worry leaving it up to federal approval of the waiver could jeopardize that support if policies change. They also point out that SNAP plays a major role in addressing hunger compared to other resources.
“We know that for every one meal provided by an emergency feeding organization, SNAP provides nine,” Chickering said.
Advocates say they support improving nutrition but argue there are more effective, evidence based ways to do that without limiting food choices.
For now, organizations across Iowa are working to help families understand the new rules, while also pushing lawmakers to reconsider how the policy could impact food access moving forward.
Scoop: Iowa Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek snagged a major endorsement for his Senate bid from former Sen. Tom Harkin.
Harkin, who retired in 2015, was the last Democrat to represent Iowa in the Senate. Turek is locked in a competitive primary with state Sen. Zach Wahls in a race that has divided major factions of the Democratic Party.
“I have a pretty good idea of what it takes to win an election, and then to faithfully represent all Iowans, not just those who voted for you,” Harkin said in his endorsement. “That’s why I’m supporting Josh Turek.”
Harkin served in the Senate for 30 years and is the author of the Americans with Disabilities Act. Turek, who was born with spina bifida and uses a wheelchair, was 11 when the ADA was enacted.
Harkin is a widely sought after endorsement in the Hawkeye State. His decision to wade into the race is notable because Harkin also has a relationship with Wahls.
Wahls called Harkin “one of my closest political mentors,” and said the former senator officiated his wedding in 2021.
Iowa’s Senate primaries are June 2.
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