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Mexico Managed to Stave Off Trump’s Tariffs. Now What?

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Mexico Managed to Stave Off Trump’s Tariffs. Now What?

Follow live updates on President Trump’s tariffs and the global fallout.

To broad relief across her country, President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico announced on Monday that she had forestalled a plan by the Trump administration to impose 25 percent tariffs on Mexican goods. Initially set to go into effect at the stroke of midnight, the tariffs have been delayed by a month, she said.

“We have this month to work, to convince each other that this is the best way forward,” Ms. Sheinbaum said at her regular morning news conference after speaking to President Trump. Suggesting that she might be able hold off the penalties altogether, she said she had told her American counterpart: “We are going to deliver results. Good results for your people, good results for the Mexican people.”

The announcement was seen as a victory for the Mexican government in dealing with Mr. Trump, who has set a new tone of aggression in the first weeks of his presidency. He has demanded that even some of the United States’ closest allies acquiesce to his demands or face consequences in the form of tariffs or perhaps even military force.

The deal, however, will force Mexico into a critical 30-day test during which it must not only continue its recent progress but also make still more headway on two of the country’s most enduring challenges: drug trafficking and migration.

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Under the terms of the agreement, Mexico will post an additional 10,000 Mexican National Guardsmen on the border. In return, Ms. Sheinbaum said, the U.S. government will work to stop the flow of arms into Mexico.

In his own statement, Mr. Trump made no mention of a promise to help curb firearms trafficking, but he celebrated the deployment of Mexican troops.

While Mexico has spent the past year stepping up its immigration enforcement, which has already contributed to a drastic reduction in U.S. border crossings, the issue of drug trafficking is much more complicated. It will require Mexico to have “a very clear, very well-defined plan,” said Ildefonso Guajardo, a former economy minister who negotiated with the first Trump administration.

Mr. Trump and Thomas Homan, the administration’s border czar, have repeatedly laid blame for the fentanyl overdose crisis in the United States on Mexican cartels as well as on migrants they say move the drug across the border. Mr. Homan falsely told Fox News that Mexican cartels had “killed a quarter of a million Americans with fentanyl.”

Since 2019, Mexico has displaced China as the biggest supplier of fentanyl to the United States. Besides being extraordinarily potent, the drug is very easy to make — and even easier to smuggle across the border, hidden under clothes or in glove compartments. According to U.S. prosecutors, the Sinaloa Cartel spends only $800 on chemicals to produce a kilo that can net a profit of up to $640,000 in the United States.

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Mexico has been the source of almost all of the fentanyl seized by U.S. law enforcement in recent years, and the amount crossing the border has increased tenfold in the past five years. But federal data shows it is brought in not by migrants but by American citizens recruited by cartel organizations. More than 80 percent of the people who have been sentenced for fentanyl trafficking at the southern border are U.S. citizens.

“All that makes it incredibly harder to go after and control the market,” said Jaime López-Aranda, a security analyst based in Mexico City.

Ms. Sheinbaum’s administration has already stepped up efforts to combat fentanyl since she took office in October, including the largest seizure of the drug — about 20 million doses — ever recorded in Mexico. Security forces regularly report advances on arrests and dismantled drug-production labs.

But experts question how much of a dent these efforts truly represent. “Mexico can keep carrying out symbolic actions like it has been doing lately,” Mr. López-Aranda said, “but there is little more it can do.”

Waging a full war on the cartels would likely backfire and set off more waves of violence across Mexico, analysts say. The country has experienced those consequences before.

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Upon taking office in 2006, President Felipe Calderón declared a war on criminal groups. The idea was to eradicate them and loosen their grip on the country. But targeting cartel leaders and engaging in direct confrontations only led to these groups splintering into more violent, brutal cells, leading to one of Mexico’s bloodiest periods.

“What is even going to happen after we destroy all the labs?” said Mr. Guajardo. “These guys are just going to focus more on extortion, theft and killings. Mexico will be left to deal with the problem alone.”

Under the agreement announced on Monday, Mexico will also bolster security forces at the border. Unlike the United States, Mexico does not have a specific security force dedicated to patrolling the border, instead relying on a combination of the military and National Guard.

Experts questioned how effective a deployment of 10,000 additional troops would be at delivering Mexico’s promised results when it came to fentanyl.

“Ten thousand members perhaps sounds like a lot, but it’s all in the details,” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, a drug policy researcher at the Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation at U.C. San Diego. “If you’re only going to have them at the border, that doesn’t address the entire fentanyl production chain.”

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Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, a senior fellow at the American Immigration Council, noted that this is the third time in six years that Mexico has committed to sending a large deployment of National Guard to the U.S. border.

While Mexico’s forces will “try to achieve results at all costs,” a more effective strategy would be to have officials from both countries share more intelligence and information to stop the flow of drugs, said Jonathan Maza, a Mexican-based security analyst.

The lack of cooperation was something that American officials complained about during the administration of Ms. Sheinbaum’s predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

Given the importance to Mexico of avoiding tariffs, Mr. Maza said the National Guard may achieve results in the short and medium term. But, he warned, criminal groups are likely to adapt.

On curbing migration and illegal crossings at the border, Mexico may have a more straightforward path to success, having adopted several effective measures in the last year.

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National Guard troops are deployed to immigration checkpoints from north to south, and migration officials have also instituted a policy of “decompression” in which migrants are bused from concentrated areas in the north farther south to keep pressure off the border. The Mexican authorities have used busing on occasion for years, but its expansion in 2024 highlighted the country’s toughening policies on migration.

Breaking up migrant caravans headed for the United States is another step Mexican officials have taken in recent years. When several emerged in the weeks leading up to Mr. Trump taking office, they were all disbanded.

Mexico’s tougher stance, paired with President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s executive order last summer to essentially prevent undocumented migrants from receiving asylum at the border, contributed to a dramatic reduction in illegal immigration at the border in 2024. In December, U.S. Border Patrol officials recorded only 47,326 illegal crossings — a sharp drop from the record 249,740 documented a year earlier.

The Mexican authorities have also introduced bureaucratic hurdles for migrants and asylum seekers.

“Mexico’s strategy has exhausted and worn down migrants,” said Mauro Pérez Bravo, the former head of the National Migration Institute’s citizen council, which evaluates the country’s migration policies. “What it did was to emotionally and physically drain people to keep them from getting to the United States.”

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In exchange for deploying troops to the border and stemming the flow of fentanyl and migrants into the United States, Ms. Sheinbaum said she secured Mr. Trump’s agreement to do more to prevent American-manufactured firearms from entering Mexico.

“These high-powered weapons that arrive illegally arm the criminal groups and give them firepower,” she said.

This is not the first time that Mexico has made that argument.

In 2021, the country sued several gun makers and one distributor, blaming them for the devastating, decades-long bloodshed from which Mexico has struggled to recover. The U.S. Supreme Court will decide this year whether Mexico may sue gun manufacturers in the United States. A recent analysis showed that nearly 9,000 gun dealers operate across cities in Arizona, California, New Mexico and Texas.

But in his own remarks, Mr. Trump did not make any mention of Ms. Sheinbaum’s request. It is unclear how his administration could actually fulfill such a commitment and what, if anything, Mexico would do should it fail to do so.

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James Wagner, Paulina Villegas and Simon Romero contributed reporting.

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Trump FBI pick Kash Patel clears Senate panel, headed for confirmation vote

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Trump FBI pick Kash Patel clears Senate panel, headed for confirmation vote
President Donald Trump’s pick to head the FBI, Kash Patel, won the approval of the Republican-controlled U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee on Thursday, clearing the way for a vote to confirm a director who has called for a radical reshaping of the nation’s top law enforcement agency.
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Russia claims Trump, Putin talk brought world from 'brink of Apocalypse,' EU warns of 'dirty tricks'

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Russia claims Trump, Putin talk brought world from 'brink of Apocalypse,' EU warns of 'dirty tricks'

Russia’s deputy chairman of the Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, on Thursday claimed that the recent discussion held between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin brought the world back from the “brink of the Apocalypse.”

“It just so happened at some point that the U.S. appointed itself the country-in-chief on our planet with the exclusive right to wage a hybrid war against our people, to mete out justice and grant pardons. It was a grave mistake, which nearly wiped humanity off the face of the earth,” he said, without mentioning that the West united behind Ukraine against Russia after Moscow launched the biggest invasion of a European nation since World War II.

“This is a lesson that must be learned by the arrogant American elites and the so-called deep state,” he continued. “The quicker our adversaries realize this, the better.

“If they don’t… the Doomsday Clock will keep on ticking towards midnight,” he added, threatening nuclear escalation. 

President Donald Trump speaks to reporters from the White House after he spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on ending the war with Ukraine on Feb. 12, 2025. (AP/Alex Brandon)

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UKRAINE ADVOCATES TEAR INTO HEGSETH FOR GIVING RUSSIA ‘CONCESSIONS’ AT START OF PEACE TALKS: ‘BIGGEST GIFT’

Trump once again prompted geopolitical shock waves following his Wednesday call with Putin when he said in a Truth Social post that peace talks will start “immediately” – comments that came just hours after U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said it was unrealistic that Ukraine would be allowed to join the NATO alliance. 

European leaders were quick to react with concern to comments from both Washington and Moscow, including EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, who told Fox News Digital, “It’s not wise to surrender Russia’s key demands before the negotiations even start.”

“Any peace agreement requires the full involvement of both the Europeans and the Ukrainians to succeed,” she continued. “Quick fixes are just dirty deals.

“Putin only responds to strength. Ukraine is resisting Russia’s invasion, and they have our full support. A bad deal for Ukraine is a bad deal for America and will embolden China,” Kallas said. 

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Kallas’ comments came after she met with NATO defense ministers, who similarly came out in support of Ukraine and issued warnings to Washington. 

Lithuania Defense Minister Dovile Sakaliene said NATO leaders are facing “difficult discussions” with “two obvious choices.”

“Whether we decide to fall under the illusion that Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin are going to find a solution for all of us – and that would be a deadly trap,” she said. “Or we will, as Europe, embrace our own economic, financial and military capacity. And we will be the ones who will be deciding what will happen in Europe and in Ukraine with the United States.”

North South Summit

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas and Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis of Greece attend a press conference in Saariselka, Finnish Lapland, Dec. 22, 2024. (Lehtikuva/Antti Aimo-Koivisto via Reuters)

In addition, Estonia Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur warned, “We have to understand that there will be no peace without Ukraine. 

“It cannot be so that someone will come and say when to talk. It has to be Ukraine,” he added. 

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Russian presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov on Thursday said Putin would be “pleased” to welcome international leaders, including Trump, to Moscow in May.

European leaders reacted with apparent concern to Trump’s and the Kremlin’s comments and said there can be no peace agreement without direct EU and Ukrainian involvement.

SOME CRITICS WORRIED TRUMP WOULD HAVE UKRAINE GIVE UP TOO MUCH FOR PEACE AGREEMENT WITH RUSSIA

Similarly, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said, “There can’t be any negotiations about Ukraine without Ukraine being at the heart of it.”

Seven European leaders from the U.K., France, Germany, Poland, Italy, Spain and the EU released a joint statement on Wednesday and insisted that they should be part of any negotiations on Ukraine’s future. 

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“Our shared objectives should be to put Ukraine in a position of strength,” the statement said. “Ukraine and Europe must be part of any negotiations.”

Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks during a press conference

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed he spoke with President Trump on Feb. 13, 2025, about ending the war with Russia. (AP Photo/Laurent Cipriani)

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy earlier this week said he would be willing to exchange the land Ukraine has seized in Russia for the land occupied by Moscow’s troops in its eastern regions. 

The Ukrainian president said he also spoke with Trump following his call with Putin on Wednesday about a “lasting, reliable peace.”

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Hamas says three captives to be released amid ceasefire deal collapse fears

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Hamas says three captives to be released amid ceasefire deal collapse fears

Hamas says it will release captives according to timeline set out in truce after fears agreement would not hold following Israel’s violations.

Hamas says it is committed to the release of captives held in Gaza according to a timeline set out in a ceasefire, days after fears arose that the truce would not hold following Israel’s violation of the agreement.

In a statement released on Thursday, Hamas said it “confirms continuation in implementing the agreement in accordance with what was signed, including the exchange of prisoners according to the specified timetable”.

Hamas spokesperson Abdul Latif al-Qanoua also confirmed to the Anadolu news agency that the group will release captives on Saturday if Israel adheres to the terms of the ceasefire.

“The [Israeli] occupation has violated the agreement multiple times, whether by preventing the return of displaced people or blocking the entry of humanitarian aid,” he said. “If Israel does not adhere to the terms of the agreement, the prisoner exchange process will not take place.”

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A Palestinian source quoted by AFP news agency said on Thursday that mediators had obtained from Israel a “promise … to put in place a humanitarian protocol starting from this morning” that would allow construction equipment and temporary housing into the devastated territory.

The Hamas statement added that talks being held this week in Cairo aimed at overcoming an impasse in implementing the deal had been “positive”.

Later on Thursday, Israel said Hamas must release three living captives on Saturday or Israel will return to war.

This week, the agreement with Israel has come under severe strain.

Hamas warned it would delay the next release of captives scheduled for Saturday due to Israel violating the truce by shooting Palestinians in Gaza and not allowing the agreed-upon number of tents, shelters and other vital aid to enter the besieged enclave.

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Israel responded by saying that if Hamas failed to free captives according to the schedule, it would resume its war.

Since the ceasefire went into effect on January 19, Israeli forces have killed at least 92 Palestinians and wounded more than 800, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health.

A Hamas delegation arrived in Cairo on Wednesday to discuss the ceasefire with mediators Egypt and Qatar.

Egyptian state-linked media said heavy equipment and trucks carrying mobile homes were ready to enter Gaza from Egypt on Thursday. The AFP news agency shared images showing a row of bulldozers on the Egyptian side of the border.

However, Israel later said they would not be allowed to enter through the crossing.

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“There is no entry of caravans or heavy equipment into the Gaza Strip, and there is no coordination for this,” Omer Dostri, a spokesperson for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, wrote on X, adding: “No goods are allowed to enter the Gaza Strip through the Rafah crossing.”

Bulldozers and trucks carrying caravans wait to enter Gaza at the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and Gaza [Mohamed Arafat/AP Photo]

Hamas has previously accused Israel of holding up the delivery of heavy machinery needed to clear the vast amounts of rubble across the enclave.

United States President Donald Trump had warned this week that “hell” would break loose if Hamas failed to release “all” the remaining captives by noon (10:00 GMT) on Saturday.

If fighting resumes, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said: “The new Gaza war … will not end without the defeat of Hamas and the release of all the hostages.”

“It will also allow the realisation of US President Trump’s vision for Gaza,” he added.

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Trump, whose return to the White House has emboldened the Israeli far right, caused a global outcry over his proposal for the US to take over the Gaza Strip and move its 2.3 million residents to Egypt or Jordan.

The Gaza truce, currently in its first phase, has seen Israeli captives released in small groups in exchange for Palestinians in Israeli custody.

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