Kosovo had celebrated the 14th anniversary of independence from Serbia only one week earlier than Russian troopers crossed into Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

As a small, south-eastern European nation not very removed from Ukraine, the invasion discovered Kosovo in a precarious and unsure place. The struggle, now in its twenty second day, presents a variety of potential implications for Kosovo’s future.

Throughout the tense months when Russian models started assembling close to the Ukrainian border, Kosovans have been already debating whether or not Belgrade may use the battle as an excuse to assault Kosovo, which declared independence from Serbia in 2008.

Certainly, there are few Europeans that higher perceive what Ukrainians are presently going via than the folks of Kosovo, who needed to endure a battle waged by a neighbouring state and fuelled by nationalist ideology a bit of over 20 years in the past.

The 1998 Kosovo struggle was a fruits of years of state repression of Yugoslavia towards ethnic Albanians; 9 years after Slobodan Milosevic had revoked Kosovo’s autonomy bringing the province beneath the direct management of Belgrade.

The struggle between the Yugoslav forces and Kosovo Liberation Military guerrilla lasted till June 1999 and ended solely after NATO carried out a bombing marketing campaign towards Serbia for round three months in a bid to drive Milosevic’s forces out of Kosovo.

A lot of the reporting within the Western media that has described the battle in Ukraine as the primary European struggle since WW2 have uncared for this battle, in addition to the wars from Slovenia to Macedonia that accompanied the unraveling of Yugoslavia within the Nineteen Nineties.

When the Ukraine struggle started, Kosovo was fast to select its aspect: a authorities constructing was lit up with the yellow and blue colours of the Ukrainian flag. Kosovo additionally prolonged assist for 20 journalists from Ukraine and pledged to simply accept 5,000 refugees.

The mutual cultural affinity and the secure political alliance between Serbia and Russia made Belgrade an vital participant on the sidelines of Putin’s latest navy journey, unavoidably dragging Kosovo within the listing of hotspot locations on this a part of the area that might see a spillover of struggle.

Conscious of the vulnerability of the area, Western diplomats have been fast to react: German International Affairs Minister, Annalena Baerbock, visited Sarajevo, Prishtina and Belgrade, whereas Borrell visited Albania beginning a tour within the area and delivered messages of hope for the short EU integration for the Western Balkans international locations in gentle of current occasions in Europe.

Safety points

Kosovo’s authorities established a ‘Safety Fund’ and invited residents to donate funds to the younger Kosovo military. However though well-liked, the initiative isn’t anticipated to have any main influence on the power of Kosovo’s navy.

The federal government has additionally fashioned a working group on Kosovo’s NATO membership bid, which is held up by the truth that 5 EU member states – Spain, Greece, Slovakia, Romania and Cyprus – don’t recognise its independence.

Kosovo has a NATO presence with the KFOR mission that continues to function a assure to Kosovo’s safety beneath the Kumanovo settlement achieved in 1999 that put an finish to the NATO 78-day bombing marketing campaign towards Serbia.

Serbia continues to keep up a heavy affect within the northern a part of Kosovo alongside the border. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, Milorad Dodik, the Bosnian Serb member of the tripartite presidency has actively threatened a separation of Republika Srpska.

Political analyst and knowledgeable Agon Maliqi says that Russia has adopted an aggressive path within the Balkans by investing in retaining conflicts open in Bosnia and Kosovo, after it had actively tried to stop NATO accession for Montenegro and North Macedonia in a bid to create destabilisation fronts within the struggle of affect with the West within the area.

Maliqi believes that there was an actual hazard of the battle in Ukraine escalating within the Balkans, however the resistance of the Ukrainians and the short response from the West stored the scenario beneath management.

“If Russia would have the ability to advance shortly in Ukraine and the response from the West wouldn’t be like it’s, the Balkans could be in actual hassle,” he stated.

Serbia declined to hitch the lengthy listing of nations introducing sanctions towards Russia and was the one nation in Europe with pro-Russian demonstrations held in its capital after the Russian invasion started.

Belgrade tabloid newspapers, seen to be beneath the affect of President Aleksandar Vucic, considerably bizarrely coated the struggle as an assault of Ukraine towards Russia.

However Belgrade additionally endorsed the UN decision condemning the Russian struggle of aggression, which critics see as an try by Serbia to have its cake and eat it, utilizing its ties with Russia as a leverage in its relationship with the West.

Kosovo’s dialogue with Serbia

Kosovo’s lengthy strategy of dialogue with Serbia, mediated by the European Union, has had many roadblocks alongside the way in which. EU Excessive Consultant for International Affairs, Josep Borrell – presently on a tour go to within the area – conceded that the dialogue “isn’t shifting on the tempo it ought to.”

This course of, seen as a vital step for each international locations of their aspirations to hitch the EU, entered a brand new section of status-quo when the present Kosovo authorities got here into energy roughly a yr in the past.

Prime Minister Albin Kurti has repeatedly refused to think about the dialogue with Serbia a precedence, constructing a story that Prishtina doesn’t stand to profit from the urgency with which the method was being dealt with by his predecessors and the mediating EU.

The worry of potential destabilizing actions within the area may give Vucic leverage towards the West, warns Donika Emini, a politics knowledgeable specialising within the dialogue course of between Kosovo and Serbia.

However, Emini factors out that the present disaster may additionally assist Kosovo to strengthen its place and to make use of the scenario to beat the remaining state-building challenges.

Emini provides that EU membership it’s nonetheless not a easy course of, particularly for Kosovo, “though rapid must combine the Western Balkans have appeared.”

“The present norms are being challenged…however there might be no progress within the integration course of with out an energetic engagement of political elites within the Balkans for additional reforms and democratization.”

Maliqi agrees that the mixing course of for the Western Balkans international locations may get a brand new push, with the EU seeing an instantaneous have to deliver the area nearer, however warns towards “constructing plenty of illusions.”

Basically, he thinks that the struggle in Ukraine may assist to shift outdated positions within the Balkans and scale back Russia’s affect.

“Russia’s affect within the Balkans is waning, and with that, Serbia is shedding its blackmailing place [towards the West].”