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How badly has the Iran war hit the global economy? The tell-tale signs

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How badly has the Iran war hit the global economy? The tell-tale signs

The United States-Israeli war on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory strikes across the Gulf region have upended global financial and energy markets, raising concerns of a global economic crisis – and even of a recession.

Here’s a look at tell-tale signs that reveal the global economic fallout from this war:

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Energy prices

Since the US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28, Tehran has launched a wave of ballistic missiles targeting Israel, US military bases, oil depots and other infrastructure across the Gulf region.

Iranian attacks on several vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz have also dramatically reduced traffic in the narrow channel, through which about 20 percent of global oil and gas supplies transit. On Thursday, Iran also attacked fuel tankers in Iraqi waters.

All of this has combined to send oil prices soaring. As of Monday morning, Brent crude, the industry benchmark, was priced at $106 per barrel, up more than 40 percent from $72 per barrel on February 27.

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According to Muyu Xu, a senior crude oil analyst at Kpler, liquified natural gas (LNG) prices have risen even more sharply – by almost 60 percent – since the start of the war.

On March 2, QatarEnergy suspended its LNG production after an Iranian drone attack, straining the global LNG market. Qatar supplies 20 percent of the world’s LNG.

Prices of refined products from petrol and gas oil to jet kerosene and fuel oil have also seen significant increases, and that trend is expected to continue if energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain largely shut, Muyu added.

“As crude oil and refined products from the Middle East Gulf are unable to reach buyers, countries, particularly in Asia, are scrambling to secure alternative supplies at higher prices and adopt emergency measures to manage inventories and demand,” she told Al Jazeera.

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About 84 percent of the crude oil and 83 percent of the LNG that passed through the strait in 2024 was bound for Asia, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration.

China, India, Japan and South Korea accounted for nearly 70 percent of those oil shipments with about 15 percent bound for the rest of Asia, according to the agency.

According to a March 9 report by Neil Shearing and his team of economists at the global macroeconomic firm Capital Economics, if the conflict is short-lived and Iranian attacks on the Gulf countries and in the Strait of Hormuz cease, “oil and LNG prices would fall back sharply with the price of Brent crude reaching $65pb [per barrel] by the end of the year.”

But in case of a longer war, the report noted: “Oil prices would rise further during the conflict to around $130pb in Q2 [second quarter]. … Shipments through the Strait of Hormuz would resume in Q2 although prices remain higher than in the first scenario by year end.”

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“Even if the conflict is contained to three months, we think Brent crude oil prices could rise to an average of $150pb over the next six months or so,” the economists forecasted.

Lower productivity

As import costs for energy-guzzling economies are rising, their economic productivity is also beginning to decline.

According to data analysed from Global Petrol Prices, a data platform that tracks and publishes retail energy prices across about 150 countries, at least 85 countries have reported increases in petrol prices since February 28. Some nations announce price changes only at the end of each month, so higher prices are expected for many others in April.

So far, Cambodia has recorded the highest petrol price increase of nearly 68 percent, rising from $1.11 per litre (a quarter of a gallon) of 95 octane on February 23 to $1.32 on Wednesday. Vietnam follows with a 50 percent increase, then Nigeria at 35 percent, Laos at 33 percent and Canada at 28 percent.

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These price increases at the pump have led governments to take drastic steps to conserve fuel.

Pakistan has introduced a four-day workweek for government employees with 50 percent of the staff working from home on rotation. Government offices in the Philippines have moved to a four-day workweek too. Thailand has made work from home mandatory for government officials.

Myanmar’s government has imposed a rule under which cars may drive only on alternate days. In Sri Lanka, vehicle owners must register online to buy fuel, then use a QR code at the pump to purchase petrol or diesel. The move is aimed at regulating how much each individual consumer buys.

All of this, economists said, impacts the productivity of economies. They manufacture less and deliver fewer services, further deepening the economic crisis.

And this is just the start.

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Muyu noted that shipowners are also hesitating to take new orders as bunkering prices hit new highs every day. “They worry that the freight rates they receive may not be sufficient to cover rising fuel costs,” she said.

“The economic impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure is only beginning to emerge. In the coming weeks, we are expecting to see further evidence of rising fuel prices, restrained demand [such as less driving or rationing] and eventually the effects filtering through to macroeconomic indicators such as inflation,” she warned.

Stock markets

According to a report on Sunday from Bloomberg News, global stocks have fallen 5.5 percent since the war began with Asian stock markets being the worst hit.

Here’s how the 10 biggest stock exchanges have performed since February 28:

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  • New York Stock Exchange (NYSE): As of Monday morning, the NYSE Composite Index had fallen by 6 percent compared with the close on February 27.
  • Nasdaq Stock Market: Shares trading on this barometer of tech stocks had fallen by 2.4 percent in the same timeframe.
  • Shanghai Stock Exchange: As of Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 1.86 percent since February 28.
  • Tokyo Stock Exchange: Also as of Monday, the Japan Nikkei 225 index has fallen by 11 percent since February 28.
  • National Stock Exchange of India: The Nifty50, the benchmark index of India’s largest stock exchange, has fallen by 7 percent since February 28.
  • Hong Kong Stock Exchange: As of Monday, the Hang Seng Index has fallen by about 4 per cent since the start of the war.
  • London Stock Exchange: London’s FTSE 100 has fallen by 5.3 percent since the war began.
  • Saudi Exchange (Tadawul): The Tadawul All-Share Index has been down by 9.6 percent since February 28.
  • Euronext: Europe’s STOXX 600 has fallen by 6 percent since the war began.
  • Australian Stock Exchange: As of mid-March, the ASX has fallen more than 6 percent due to the war.

Frederic Schneider, a nonresident senior fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, said Asian and other stock markets falling more than the US reflects their larger exposure to the energy crisis. It is also reflective of the fact that the US remains a global anchor market and many of the corporate winners of the war, including defence and oil corporations, are based in the US.

Russian stocks, meanwhile, have trended upwards as “Russia is a major non-Gulf hydrocarbon supplier standing to benefit from the war,” he added.

Inflation and stagflation fears

Last week, the International Monetary Fund’s managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, warned that if the war is prolonged, it poses an inflationary risk on the global economy.

“We are seeing resilience tested again by the new ‌conflict ⁠in the Middle East,” Georgieva said on March 9 at a symposium hosted by ⁠Japan’s Ministry of Finance while warning policymakers to be prepared for it.

Oil price shocks have also historically summoned stagflation – increasing inflation coupled with rising unemployment. Economists pointed to the crises of 1973, 1978 and 2008 as evidence that every significant spike in oil prices has been followed in some form by a global recession.

Schneider at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs warned that debt-ridden Global South countries may face a debt crisis if interest rates are hiked in the Global North to combat inflation.

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But Schneider highlighted that China is more insulated against the economic fallout of this war because it has overseen a large-scale energy diversification campaign over recent years, making enormous investments in renewables, nuclear power and coal; diversifying its hydrocarbon suppliers; and amassing a huge strategic reserve.

“China has also largely internalised supply networks, minimising disruptions. But as an export nation, China’s economic health will suffer from a global economic downturn,” he added.

In the West, Schneider said Europe is feeling the economic impact of the war because the continent had already been cut off from Russian hydrocarbons through attacks on the Nord Stream gas pipelines and sanctions on Russia.

“Europe’s industries are already strained by high energy costs, and this war is definitely putting another stressor on top in an economy that has been suffering from long-term declining growth,” he said.

As for the US, he said, the country is energy self-sufficient, but petrol prices are a flashpoint of public discontent.

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“Just as with food prices, they hit disadvantaged parts of the population harder. Farmers, a vocal constituency in the US, are also hit by energy and fertiliser prices, which are large cost factors, after already having suffered from Trump’s trade wars. Furthermore, the US energy grid has already been strained by the AI boom. All of this combines during a midterm election year,” he added.

GDP growth rate

Shearing and his team of economists at Capital Economics have forecasted in their report that if the war ends in a few weeks, “outside the Gulf economies, the impact on GDP (Gross Domestic Product), inflation and monetary policy will be limited.”

“Economies in Asia and Europe are most exposed, but we would not envisage making major changes to forecasts. The only central banks to hike interest rates in response to the crisis are likely to be those in EMs (emerging markets) with fragile balance sheets (example: Turkey, Pakistan).”

In case the war continues for several months, however, the economists predicted that the macroeconomic consequences would be more significant.

“GDP growth in the euro-zone is likely to slow to just 0.5 percent y/y (year on year)” in the second half of the year while “economic growth in China is likely to fall below 3 percent y/y (year on year).”

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The economists predicted the US would outperform other economies by growing by 2.25 percent in 2026.

“Inflation peaks at over 4 percent year on year in the euro-zone, 3 percent year on year in the US and 2.5 percent year on year in Japan,” they forecasted and added that this would lead to the European Central Bank raising interest rates and the Bank of Japan tightening its policy.

Travel and aviation impacts

The war has not only sent oil prices surging but has also upended global travel, pushing airline ticket costs on some routes sky-high.

More than two weeks into the conflict, the Gulf’s biggest carriers are still struggling to return to pre-war flight volumes with airspaces either shut or operating under major restrictions with a persistent threat of missiles and drones.

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But it isn’t just these airlines that have been affected.

Australia’s Qantas Airways, Scandinavia’s SAS, Air New Zealand and India’s two biggest carriers, IndiGo and Air India, have all announced airfare hikes, blaming an abrupt spike in the cost of fuel on the war.

Jet fuel prices, which were about $85 to $90 per barrel before the attacks on Iran, have soared to $150 to $200 a barrel, New Zealand’s flag carrier said last week.

Several Asian and European airlines, including Lufthansa and Ryanair, have oil hedging in place, securing a part of their fuel supplies at fixed prices. Oil hedging is the process of locking in the price of oil to buy or sell the commodity in the future.

Flights from Asia and Australia towards Europe and the US have also been taking longer flights to avoid the Gulf due to airspace closures in the region. This has further bumped up airline ticket prices.

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Schneider noted that the airline rerouting is not good news for European airlines, which are already shut off from Russian airspace, making flights to Asia even longer and costlier.

“This crisis could also spill over into the rest of the year with a dampened tourism outlook and a potential cost-of-living crisis,” he said.

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‘The Pitt’ Actor Patrick Ball Cries While Revealing Show Got Him Out of $80,000 Worth of Debt: ‘I Thought I Was Gonna Die With It’

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‘The Pitt’ Actor Patrick Ball Cries While Revealing Show Got Him Out of ,000 Worth of Debt: ‘I Thought I Was Gonna Die With It’

“The Pitt” actor Patrick Ball broke down in tears while speaking to Cultured magazine and revealed how the Emmy-winning HBO Max medical series helped him get out $80,000 worth of student loan debt. Ball stars on the show as Dr. Frank Langdon. “The Pitt” is currently airing its second season on the streamer.

“I paid off my student loans like three months into ‘The Pitt,’ and that was a really profound moment because I thought I was gonna die with it,” Ball said through tears. “It’s a huge burden to carry, and a lot of people carry it. I was $80,000 in debt and I had been through a series of failed relationships where my financial insecurity was a real problem. I had just thought that was going to be my life forever, and that is a really heavy thing to live with.”

Ball added, “Paying off those student loans and getting back to zero, I remember being like, ‘Man, if this show works, great. If it doesn’t work, they can’t take that away from me. I am out of debt.’ No take-backsies on that.”

Ball earned a Critics’ Choice Television Award nomination for best supporting actor in a drama series thanks to his performance on “The Pitt.” He won a SAG Award as part of the show’s ensemble cast, which is headlined by Emmy winner Noah Wyle. Prior to being cast in “The Pitt,” Ball was leaning towards a life outside of Hollywood all together.

“The financial outlook can be bleak. I was looking for an off-ramp,” Ball told the publication, noting his then-girlfriend’s dad was trying to convince him to join the FBI. He was later working four jobs when he moved to New York City.

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“I was working at a coffee shop, I was working at a restaurant, I was working as a wardrobe assistant for ‘And Just Like That,’ I was doing these corporate coaching seminars,” he continued. “I don’t think I’ve told anybody this story, but I was doing these seminars where they’d bring me into Blackrock and Blackstone and Goldman Sachs, and they would want to teach these young administrators how to have difficult conversations, à la how to fire somebody. They would bring me in as an actor so that these administrators could get practice firing someone. So I have been fired more than anyone you’ve ever met, I promise you. I’ve been fired thousands of times. And then the call for ‘The Pitt’ came in and everything was different.”

Head over to Cultured’s website to read Ball’s profile in its entirety.

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UK’s NATO show of force ends with docked destroyer in Mediterranean after ‘technical’ issue

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UK’s NATO show of force ends with docked destroyer in Mediterranean after ‘technical’ issue

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The United Kingdom’s only warship deployed to the eastern Mediterranean during the Iran conflict has been forced into port over a “technical” issue, abruptly sidelining a key piece of Britain’s regional military presence as pressure mounts on Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s handling of the crisis.

The docking of HMS Dragon — a Type 45 destroyer tasked with defending U.K. assets and projecting force near the conflict zone — weakens Britain’s visible military posture at a sensitive moment, as a fragile U.S.-brokered pause takes hold and criticism from Trump administration officials and conservative voices builds over delays and restrictions that they say damaged London’s credibility with allies.

HMS Dragon was facing issues with its “onboard water systems,” which impacted water provisions for sailors on board, The Daily Mail first reported.

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British Prime Minister Keir Starmer discusses defense spending and naval capabilities, pictured alongside the Type 45 destroyer HMS Dragon (D35) featuring its distinctive red dragon bow art. (Justin Tallis/AFP via Getty Images; Phby Jaimi Joy-WPA Pool/Getty Images)

“HMS Dragon is undertaking a routine logistics stop and a short maintenance period in the Eastern Mediterranean, allowing the ship to take onboard provisions, optimise systems and conduct maintenance,” the Ministry of Defense said in a statement to the outlet.

The ministry said in a statement to the Daily Mail that if necessary the ship will be “able to sail at short notice.”

“The UK continues to maintain a robust and layered defensive presence in the Eastern Mediterranean, working in coordination with allies. This includes Typhoon and F-35 jets, Wildcat and Merlin helicopters, and advanced counter-drone and air defence systems.”

While the Iran war began on Feb. 28, the U.K. did not announce the deployment of HMS Dragon to protect its air bases in Cyprus until five days later. The announcement came a day after Iranian-backed militia group Hezbollah struck RAF Akrotiri, one of the United Kingdom’s air bases in Cyprus. HMS Dragon did not depart from Portsmouth, England, until March 10 — a week after Starmer’s announcement.

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HEGSETH DECLARES ‘DECISIVE MILITARY VICTORY’ OVER IRAN

The Type 45 destroyer HMS Dragon is seen moored in the Royal Navy Dockyard on Oct. 28, 2024, in Portsmouth, England. Keir Starmer confirmed on March 3, 2026, that the HMS Dragon would be deployed in Cyprus. (Matt Cardy/Getty Images)

Trump and Starmer have been at odds since the conflict’s onset. While the United Kingdom has allowed the U.S. military to operate out of those bases, Starmer restricted the U.S. military from carrying out offensive missions from its bases. Trump compared Starmer’s approach to Iran to former United Kingdom Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, who adopted an appeasement policy toward Nazi Germany during World War II.

During a press briefing, War Secretary Pete Hegseth on Wednesday called on “so-called allies,” referring to the United Kingdom, to “take notes” on what the U.S. and Israel accomplished.

Criticism of Starmer’s handling of Iran is also coming from United Kingdom Shadow Housing Secretary James Cleverly, a member of the Tory Party who is also a military reserve officer. Cleverly scrutinized Starmer’s decision to visit the Middle East after the ceasefire was brokered in an interview with GB News.

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FARAGE SLAMS BRITISH PRIME MINISTER FOR ‘EXTRAORDINARY’ LACK OF SUPPORT FOR TRUMP’S IRAN STRIKES

“He was opposing the United States using their own aircraft from British bases. Then he was in favor of it. He delayed the decision to deploy British naval assets,” Cleverly said.

“He left British military personnel and our allies in the region not properly defended, and now he’s finally engaging properly with this situation,” Cleverly continued.

He claimed that Starmer’s conduct had cost the country “credibility on the world stage.”

President Donald Trump meets with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on July 28, 2025, in Turnberry, Scotland. (Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)

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“I know a lot of our friends and allies in the region and beyond are very disappointed in Britain’s response. And that is entirely because of decisions that Keir Starmer failed to make,” Cleverly said.

British journalist Patrick Chrysty, host of GB News, also criticized the United Kingdom’s efforts in the Iran war. He called Secretary of Defense John Healey a “bumbling idiot.”

“It took us a month to get HMS Dragon to Cyprus after Iranian-backed terror group Hezbollah attacked our military base there… And right as the world holds its breath, HMS Dragon has a fault with its fresh water supply. It’s gone to dock for repairs. It’s out of action. This is an abomination!”

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John Hemmings, director of the National Security Centre at the Henry Jackson Society, said in a statement to Fox News Digital that Starmer’s visit to the Gulf is his way of showing the United Kingdom is in support of Western allies’ efforts in Iran.

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“UK Prime Minister Starmer’s trip to the Persian Gulf shows the pressure he is under to ‘fly the flag’ and it’s clear that he’s trying to use Britain’s traditional networks and connections amongst the Gulf Arabs. In some ways, the Starmer team’s behind-the-scenes mediation strengths were proven in the Hamas-Israel peace deal with Jonathan Powell leading,

“This time, Yvette Cooper at the FCDO has been in the lead, running a virtual meeting of over 40 countries to coordinate a response to Iran’s blockade in early April.”

Fox News Digital reached out to the U.K.’s Ministry of Defense for comment.

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‘Even the street cats ran’: Inside Israel’s deadliest attack on Beirut

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‘Even the street cats ran’: Inside Israel’s deadliest attack on Beirut

Beirut, Lebanon – Em Walid was in the clothing shop she owns in central Beirut when the sound of explosions rang out.

“Even the street cats outside started running,” she said, after Israel carried out its heaviest and deadliest air attacks on Lebanon in years.

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At least 254 people were killed and more than 1,160 were injured in dozens of attacks on Beirut, its suburbs, the south of the country and the eastern Bekaa Valley. There are fears the toll could rise as more victims are recovered from the rubble following the strikes – a sharp escalation since Israel ramped up its attacks on Lebanon early last month amid its joint war with the United States against Iran.

The strikes came hours after a Pakistani-negotiated ceasefire between the US and Iran took effect. There was initial confusion about Lebanon’s place in the two-week truce, with Pakistan and Iran insisting it was part of the agreement.

Israel and the US, however, argued otherwise. Speaking to US media, US President Donald Trump said Lebanon was a “separate skirmish”, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed the ceasefire “does not include Lebanon”.

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“Netanyahu wants to take advantage of the fluid situation to maximise operational achievements in Lebanon,” Dania Arayssi, a senior analyst at New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, told Al Jazeera.

“He must take into account that a US-Iran deal might include ceasing the war on Iranian proxies, which would greatly complicate the Israeli war effort against Hezbollah in Lebanon.”

A damaged apartment building after an Israeli air strike in Caracas near the Raouche district in Beirut, Lebanon, on April 8, 2026 [Wael Hamzeh/EPA]

Israel intensified its war on Lebanon for the second time in less than two years in early March following a salvo of rockets launched by the Lebanese group Hezbollah. A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah had ostensibly been in place since November 27, 2024, but Israel continued carrying out near-daily attacks that killed hundreds of Lebanese.

The Iran-backed group claimed its March 2 attack – its first response to more than a year of Israeli ceasefire violations – was retaliation for the US and Israeli assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei two days earlier, on the first day of the US-Israel war on Iran.

Since then, relentless Israeli bombardment and a ground invasion have killed some 1,700 people in Lebanon and forced more than 1.2 million from their homes.

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In a statement, Hezbollah said it has a “right” to respond to the attacks, affirming “that the blood of the martyrs and the wounded will not be shed in vain, and that today’s massacres, like all acts of aggression and savage crimes, confirm our natural and legal right to resist the occupation and respond to its aggression”.

‘Just way too many of them’

The wave of attacks came as some of those displaced attempted to return to their homes in the south amid confusion over Lebanon’s inclusion in the ceasefire. Strikes happened across the country, including in parts of Beirut that had been spared over the past month and in 2024.

The first round included dozens of attacks in fewer than 10 minutes. The Israeli military claimed it attacked more than 100 Hezbollah headquarters and military targets, though many strikes were in densely populated residential areas.

No warnings were given.

Hospitals, frantically dealing with high casualty counts, started putting out calls for blood donations.

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At the American University of Beirut Medical Center, in the Hamra neighbourhood, dozens heeded the call. Among those cramming the third-floor reception was a 20-year-old American University of Beirut student, majoring in philosophy. His family had fled Dahiyeh, in southern Beirut, when the attacks started in early March. They had taken refuge near the Basta neighbourhood, in the centre of the capital.

He was at the university, near the hospital, when the first rounds of attack happened.

“I heard several explosions,” the student, who did not give his name, said. “There were just way too many of them.”

The student recalled looking up and seeing smoke rising in the distance in multiple places around the city. Reports began coming in of attacks all over the nation. There was one near his aunt’s place in the Aley district, about a half-hour drive from Beirut, he said. She was fine – but a neighbour had been killed.

A woman who survived an Israeli airstrike is rescued by a firefighter from a destroyed building in central Beirut, Lebanon, Wednesday, April 8, 2026. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti)
A woman who survived an Israeli air strike is rescued by a firefighter from a destroyed building in central Beirut, Lebanon, on Wednesday, April 8, 2026 [AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti]

In the Manara neighbourhood, near Beirut’s seafront, Najib Merhe smoked a cigarette and chatted with neighbours. An Israeli attack had destroyed an apartment a few floors above his restaurant, Hani’s, a long-standing, popular burger joint.

He was not on site when the attack happened, but his son was. Luckily, he was unharmed.

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“People are afraid,” Merhe said. “This kind of situation no one can afford nor endure.”

Across the street, the glass facade of his restaurant had been destroyed. Light fixtures hung from the ceilings. People swept glass on the street, and old men walking along the seafront gathered to look at the hole in the wall where the apartment had been just a couple of hours earlier.

Security forces had cordoned off the area and directed passersby to beware of falling glass from the adjacent building.

This was one of the smaller strikes. It was targeting a specific apartment. In other parts of town, Israel took down entire buildings.

Further down the street in Manara, a sweat-drenched member of Beirut’s civil defence forces sat in the back of his emergency response vehicle. “I heard ‘woooooo’ and then strikes all over the place,” he said, adding that he’d never seen anything like this before.

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As the day continued, people feared Israel was not finished. In televised remarks, Netanyahu said that his military’s operations against Hezbollah, and thus Lebanon, would continue.

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