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Half of eurozone countries heading for recession, IMF chief predicts

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Half of eurozone countries heading for recession, IMF chief predicts

Europe’s economic system is projected to be badly hit by the power disaster triggered by Russia’s warfare in Ukraine, with not less than half of the 19 nations that use the euro heading for a recession, the managing director of the Worldwide Financial Fund (IMF) has stated.

“The horizon has darkened considerably over the past 12 months,” Kristalina Georgieva advised Euronews on Thursday.

“One 12 months in the past, we had been recovering from COVID and we completed with over 6% international development. After which two shocks: Omicron and Russia’s warfare in Ukraine haven’t solely interrupted the restoration however reversed it.”

Georgieva sat down with Euronews Enterprise Editor Sasha Vakulina after talking on the “Making Markets Work For Folks” occasion in Brussels.

“The primary precedence [is] to combat and win in opposition to inflation. What does that imply? Tightening monetary situations. Rates of interest are going up,” she famous.

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“When central banks are stepping on the brakes, finance ministries can’t press the accelerator.”

The IMF chief didn’t mince her phrases: the image she painted of the worldwide economic system was unmistakably darkish, with a worsening cost-of-living disaster and momentum slowing down in Asia and America.

For Europe, the outlook is even bleaker.

“Europe is affected extra severely by the rise of power costs. The warmth on European economies is such that we really anticipate half of the nations within the eurozone to expertise not less than two quarters of adverse development. In different phrases, a recession,” she stated, with out naming the nations.

A recession is usually outlined as two consecutive quarters of adverse GDP development.

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“Simply to present you a way as to how important the hit on Europe is, our pre-pandemic projections and our present projections differ by half a trillion euros,” she stated.

“In different phrases, the loss to the European individuals is sort of, fairly dramatic.”

In its newest outlook, the IMF estimated the eurozone to develop by 3.1% in 2022 however simply by a meagre 0.5% in 2023. Subsequent 12 months, Germany and Italy are projected to submit -0.3% and -0.2% charges, respectively. 

‘2023 will likely be more durable than 2022’

Georgieva praised EU policymakers for offering “focused, well timed and short-term” assist for households and corporations beneath monetary stress, and stated the primary focus ought to stay on power financial savings to rebalance the supply-demand mismatch.

However nice challenges lie forward.

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“I’m not going to sugar-coat it: 2023 will likely be more durable than 2022. Subsequent winter for Europe could also be even harsher than this winter,” she declared.

“Why? As a result of European policymakers acted very swiftly to fill gasoline storage. If situations stay as they’re with Russia not offering gasoline to Europe, how is that this gasoline storage going to be stuffed subsequent 12 months?”

The EU has surpassed 93% of capability in its underground storage services. The purchasing spree, whereas profitable, introduced gasoline costs to all-time highs in August.

However Georgieva did strike a be aware of optimism, arguing the present power disaster will likely be a serious enhance for inexperienced applied sciences in the identical method the pandemic accelerated the digital transition.

“It’s heartbreaking to see a warfare on our territory once more, refugees once more, and the large struggling of individuals beneath siege once more. We thought that this could by no means be repeated. And I’m, in my thoughts, nonetheless wrestling with this picture of Europe at warfare once more,” she stated.

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“The important thing query immediately in Europe is: Can Europe keep united and may the general public be introduced on board for this tough time?”

Talking concerning the Russian economic system, Georgieva projected contractions in each 2022 and 2023, along with mid- and long-term damaging implications.

“One, [Russia] is dropping entry to expertise that may have helped the nation to modernise and diversify its economic system. Two, it’s dropping individuals. The outflow of Russians, particularly highly-qualified Russians, due to the warfare is hurting Russia,” she stated.

“And three, it’s dropping its function within the international economic system.”

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Israel moves towards ceasefire deal with Hezbollah: reports

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Israel moves towards ceasefire deal with Hezbollah: reports

Israel is reportedly moving towards a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah in Lebanon after nearly a year of fighting escalated into an all-out war in September. 

Israeli media outlets including YNET and Haaretz have reported that Israel has tentatively agreed to a U.S.-backed proposal for a ceasefire. No final deal has been reached, according to the reports. 

Journalists take pictures of a building hit direct by a rocket fired from Lebanon in Haifa, Israel, Sunday Nov. 24, 2024. (AP Photo/Francisco Seco)

Lebanon and the militia group Hezbollah reportedly agreed to the deal last week but both sides need to give the final okay before it can materialize. 

The reported ceasefire deal comes after Hezbollah launched one of its largest rocket attacks on Israel in exchange for Israeli forces striking Hezbollah command centers in Beirut. 

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This is a developing story. Check back for updates. 

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Yamandu Orsi wins Uruguay’s run-off presidential election

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Yamandu Orsi wins Uruguay’s run-off presidential election

Yamandu Orsi, the candidate for the left-wing Broad Front coalition, is projected to emerge victorious in Uruguay’s run-off election for the presidency.

He bested Alvaro Delgado of the ruling National Party to win the tightly fought race, though public opinion polls showed the two candidates in a dead heat in the lead-up to Sunday’s vote.

Orsi’s supporters took to the streets in the capital of Montevideo, as the official results started to show the former mayor and history teacher surging ahead.

Many waved the party banner: a red, blue and white striped flag with the initials FA for “Frente Amplio”, which translates to “Broad Front”.

“Joy will return for the majority,” the coalition posted on social media as Orsi approached victory. “Cheers, people of Uruguay.”

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Supporters of Yamandu Orsi celebrate early results after polls closed in Montevideo, Uruguay, on November 24 [Natacha Pisarenko/AP Photo]

Orsi’s win restores the Broad Front to power in the small South American country, sandwiched on the Atlantic coast between Brazil and Argentina.

For 15 years, from 2005 to 2020, the Broad Front had held Uruguay’s executive office, with the presidencies of Jose Mujica and Tabare Vazquez, the latter of whom won two non-consecutive, five-year terms.

But that winning streak came to an end in the 2019 election, with the victory of current President Luis Lacalle Pou, who led a coalition of right-leaning parties.

Under Uruguay law, however, a president cannot run for consecutive terms. Lacalle Pou was therefore not a candidate in the 2024 race.

Running in his stead was Delgado, a former veterinarian and Congress member who served as a political appointee in Lacalle Pou’s government from 2020 to 2023.

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Even before the official results were announced on Sunday, Delgado had conceded, acknowledging Orsi’s victory was imminent.

“Today, the Uruguayans have defined who will hold the presidency of the republic. And I want to send here, with all these actors of the coalition, a big hug and a greeting to Yamandu Orsi,” Delgado said in a speech as he clutched a large Uruguayan flag in his hand.

He called on his supporters to “respect the sovereign decisions” of the electorate, while striking a note of defiance.

“It’s one thing to lose an election, and another to be defeated. We are not defeated,” he said, pledging that his right-wing coalition was “here to stay”.

The outgoing president, Lacalle Pou, also reached out to Orsi to acknowledge the Broad Front’s victory.

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“I called [Yamandu Orsi] to congratulate him as president-elect of our country and to put myself at his service and begin the transition as soon as I deem it pertinent,” Lacalle Pou wrote on social media.

Supporters hold aloft multiple cut-outs of Yamandu Orsi's face.
Supporters hold cutouts of Yamandu Orsi’s face in Montevideo, Uruguay, on November 24 [Natacha Pisarenko/AP Photo]

Orsi had been considered the frontrunner in the lead-up to the first round of the elections.

Originally from Canelones, a coastal regional in the south of Uruguay, Orsi began his career locally as a history teacher, activist and secretary-general of the department’s government. In 2015, he successfully ran to be mayor of Canelones and won re-election in 2020.

In the 2024 presidential race, Orsi – like virtually all the candidates on the campaign trail – pledged to bolster Uruguay’s economy. He called for salary increases, particularly for low-wage workers, to grow their “purchasing power”.

He also called for greater early childhood education and employment programmes for young adults. According to a United Nations report earlier this year, nearly 25 percent of Uruguay’s children live in poverty.

But the economy was not the only issue at the forefront of voters’ minds. In a June survey from the communications firm Nomade, the largest share of respondents – 29 percent – identified “insecurity” as Uruguay’s “principal problem”.

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That dwarfed the second-highest ranked topic: “Unemployment” was only picked by 15 percent of respondents.

As part of his platform, Orsi pledged to increase the police force and strengthen Uruguay’s borders, including through the installation of more security cameras.

As he campaigned, Orsi enjoyed the support of former President Mujica, a former rebel fighter who survived torture under Uruguay’s military dictatorship in the 1970s and ’80s.

Mujica remains a popular figure on Uruguay’s left, best known for his humble living arrangements that once earned him the moniker of the “world’s poorest president”.

A dog walks through a Montevideo street dressed in an Uruguay flag.
Supporters of Yamandu Orsi, candidate for the Broad Front, walk a dog decorated with the party’s colours in Montevideo, Uruguay, on Sunday [Natacha Pisarenko/AP Photo]

In the first round of voting, on October 27, Orsi came out on top, with 44 percent of the vote to Delgado’s 27 percent. But his total was far short of the 50 percent he needed to win the election outright, thereby triggering a run-off.

The race got tighter from there forward. Only two candidates progressed to the run-off – Delgado and Orsi – and Delgado picked up support from voters who had backed former Colorado Party candidate Andres Ojeda, a fellow conservative who was knocked out in the first round.

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Nevertheless, Orsi quickly pulled ahead after the polls closed for the run-off election on Sunday.

“The horizon is brightening,” Orsi said in his victory speech. “The country of freedom, equality and also fraternity triumphs once again.”

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Cinematography Work at Camerimage Festival ‘Radically Different,’ Jury Members Say

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Cinematography Work at Camerimage Festival ‘Radically Different,’ Jury Members Say

Jurors at the EnergaCamerimage cinematography fest say the Golden Frog main competition films have been remarkably varied and inspiring in the event’s 32nd edition.

The 12 competing films “were radically different from each other,” said “Barbie” and “Killers of the Flower Moon” cinematographer Rodrigo Prieto, whose directorial debut, “Pedro Paramo,” is also screening at the fest. “I enjoyed that.”

The varied styles, approaches and storytellers, he added, defied easy categorization. “Happily, I didn’t notice trends, which I have noticed sometimes in the past in some festivals.”

Juror Anthony Dod Mantle, who won Golden Frogs in 2008 for his lensing of “Slumdog Millionaire” and in 2016 for “Snowden,” said, “I’ve been to this festival before and the overall collection of films and categories, I felt, was even wider. I feel slight absence of certain films from other ethnic backgrounds. They were different, these films, but they could be far more different.”

Greater diversity and inclusion in cinematography has justly been a hot topic this year at Camerimage, he added. “It’s good we embrace that, celebrate it here, because not many festivals do that.”

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Dod Mantle described the current state of cinematography, based on what the jury’s seen this week, as “openly variable and that’s why we praise some films rather than others because they challenge convention.”

He also described the industry as “in a bit of a pickle,” adding, “We know that. We have to applaud ourselves and embrace and encourage every single essence of, molecule of, exploration and challenging cinema.”

Juror Lukasz Zal, who filmed “The Zone of Interest” and “Cold War,” said “I feel really inspired. I feel this kind of positive envy when you just see something which you admire, and love – cinema is still in good condition.”

And, he added, “I’m becoming hopeful that, OK, there’s still a lot to discover. For this, I really love Camerimage. When I was here, when I was a student, I was always coming back home after festival, with this feeling, kind of eager to work, to prepare and to just be really open and be full of ideas.”
Spending time here again as a top professional in his field, Zal said, “I feel again like a student.”

Juror Cate Blanchett said it’s clear cinematography has no crisis of creativity currently.

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Instead, there’s a different issue: “The pickle is how one gets access and is able to see these films in the way that they’re intended to be seen.”

Technology advances in the field are also helping storytelling onscreen evolve, she added, rather than distracting from it. “Sometimes you can see there’s been huge technical advances made, or there’s been big innovations, and they haven’t yet been integrated into the stories that they’re being applied to. Whereas I thought there were so many films here that have really integrated the technology and in a completely adventurous and inventive way that was not pretentious. It was very interwoven and enmeshed with the performances and the stories.”

Jury duty at Camerimage is rewarding, said Dod Mantle, because the Golden Frog award can often help promising cinematographers break through to booming careers.

He described the potential effect of the award as “enormous.”

“The first time I came here, in competition,” he recalled, “it illustrated for me the jury was embracing cinema, celebrating something different and challenging.”

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Cinematographers are keenly aware of the judgment of their peers, Dod Mantle added. “You feel quite vulnerable here. I’ve seen cinematographers leave the festival and go spend the weekend in Krakow and come back. The frog, ultimately is a beautiful thing celebrating our colleagues’ work.”

Juror Anna Higgs, a producer and columnist who works closely with BAFTA, said, “I think we should normalize cinematographers getting asked for their autographs – the fact that this frog is the idolized thing here.”

Blanchett added, “It’s very rare that you go to a festival where every single person in the auditorium sits right through the credit roll to the very end.” She noted “the respect that is shown to every single crewmember.”

Prieto recalled the impact of his own Golden Frog cinematography win in 2000 for “Amores Perros” fondly. “I do cherish that frog. It’s wonderful to get a frog, but more than anything, it’s a place where cinematography is the focus and is celebrated, and to share that obsession with so many people, and the energy of that, is really wonderful.”

Zal had a similar career boost, he said, after winning for lensing “Ida” by Pawel Pawlikowski in 2013. “That’s really the moment when somehow my career changed. I was always dreaming while having student films here.  And it was beautiful to get an award from colleagues and being here and being among amazing cinematographers.

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“I was put in competition with the people who I admire. Even now, sitting with Rodrigo, who for me was a huge inspiration. I was shooting my films in school inspired by ‘Amores Perros.’ Now we’re sitting together on the jury. That’s amazing, that’s beautiful.”

Blanchett described the close proximity of students and top international lensers as a unique strength of Camerimage, praising “the mentorship that goes on, how you’ll champion the works of other people.”

“I think that’s why it’s so vitally important that there’s an increased level of female participation. Because of the networking and mentorship opportunities and championing the work. The conversations and the opportunities that arise from those conversations are really important.”

Oscar-winning costume designer Sandy Powell (“Shakespeare in Love,” “The Aviator” and “The Young Victoria”) and cinematographer and documentary filmmaker Jolanta Dylewska also served on the Camerimage jury, calling earlier this week for greater diversity and inclusion in the industry.

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