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Half of eurozone countries heading for recession, IMF chief predicts

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Half of eurozone countries heading for recession, IMF chief predicts

Europe’s economic system is projected to be badly hit by the power disaster triggered by Russia’s warfare in Ukraine, with not less than half of the 19 nations that use the euro heading for a recession, the managing director of the Worldwide Financial Fund (IMF) has stated.

“The horizon has darkened considerably over the past 12 months,” Kristalina Georgieva advised Euronews on Thursday.

“One 12 months in the past, we had been recovering from COVID and we completed with over 6% international development. After which two shocks: Omicron and Russia’s warfare in Ukraine haven’t solely interrupted the restoration however reversed it.”

Georgieva sat down with Euronews Enterprise Editor Sasha Vakulina after talking on the “Making Markets Work For Folks” occasion in Brussels.

“The primary precedence [is] to combat and win in opposition to inflation. What does that imply? Tightening monetary situations. Rates of interest are going up,” she famous.

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“When central banks are stepping on the brakes, finance ministries can’t press the accelerator.”

The IMF chief didn’t mince her phrases: the image she painted of the worldwide economic system was unmistakably darkish, with a worsening cost-of-living disaster and momentum slowing down in Asia and America.

For Europe, the outlook is even bleaker.

“Europe is affected extra severely by the rise of power costs. The warmth on European economies is such that we really anticipate half of the nations within the eurozone to expertise not less than two quarters of adverse development. In different phrases, a recession,” she stated, with out naming the nations.

A recession is usually outlined as two consecutive quarters of adverse GDP development.

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“Simply to present you a way as to how important the hit on Europe is, our pre-pandemic projections and our present projections differ by half a trillion euros,” she stated.

“In different phrases, the loss to the European individuals is sort of, fairly dramatic.”

In its newest outlook, the IMF estimated the eurozone to develop by 3.1% in 2022 however simply by a meagre 0.5% in 2023. Subsequent 12 months, Germany and Italy are projected to submit -0.3% and -0.2% charges, respectively. 

‘2023 will likely be more durable than 2022’

Georgieva praised EU policymakers for offering “focused, well timed and short-term” assist for households and corporations beneath monetary stress, and stated the primary focus ought to stay on power financial savings to rebalance the supply-demand mismatch.

However nice challenges lie forward.

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“I’m not going to sugar-coat it: 2023 will likely be more durable than 2022. Subsequent winter for Europe could also be even harsher than this winter,” she declared.

“Why? As a result of European policymakers acted very swiftly to fill gasoline storage. If situations stay as they’re with Russia not offering gasoline to Europe, how is that this gasoline storage going to be stuffed subsequent 12 months?”

The EU has surpassed 93% of capability in its underground storage services. The purchasing spree, whereas profitable, introduced gasoline costs to all-time highs in August.

However Georgieva did strike a be aware of optimism, arguing the present power disaster will likely be a serious enhance for inexperienced applied sciences in the identical method the pandemic accelerated the digital transition.

“It’s heartbreaking to see a warfare on our territory once more, refugees once more, and the large struggling of individuals beneath siege once more. We thought that this could by no means be repeated. And I’m, in my thoughts, nonetheless wrestling with this picture of Europe at warfare once more,” she stated.

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“The important thing query immediately in Europe is: Can Europe keep united and may the general public be introduced on board for this tough time?”

Talking concerning the Russian economic system, Georgieva projected contractions in each 2022 and 2023, along with mid- and long-term damaging implications.

“One, [Russia] is dropping entry to expertise that may have helped the nation to modernise and diversify its economic system. Two, it’s dropping individuals. The outflow of Russians, particularly highly-qualified Russians, due to the warfare is hurting Russia,” she stated.

“And three, it’s dropping its function within the international economic system.”

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Ukraine's divisive mobilization law comes into force as a new Russian push strains front-line troops

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Ukraine's divisive mobilization law comes into force as a new Russian push strains front-line troops

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — A divisive mobilization law in Ukraine came into force on Saturday, as Kyiv struggles to boost troop numbers after Russia launched a new offensive that some fear could close in on Ukraine’s second-largest city.

The legislation, which was watered down from its original draft, will make it easier to identify every conscript in the country. It also provides incentives to soldiers, such as cash bonuses or money toward buying a house or car, that some analysts say Ukraine cannot afford.

Lawmakers dragged their feet for months and only passed the law in mid-April, a week after Ukraine lowered the age for men who can be drafted from 27 to 25. The measures reflect the growing strain that more than two years of war with Russia has had on Ukraine’s forces, who are trying to hold the front lines in fighting that has sapped the country’s ranks and stores of weapons and ammunition.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also signed two other laws Friday, allowing prisoners to join the army and increasing fines for draft dodgers fivefold. Russia enlisted its prisoners early on in the war, and personnel shortages compelled Ukraine to adopt the new measures.

Russian troops, meanwhile, are pushing ahead with a ground offensive that opened a new front in northeastern Ukraine’s Kharkiv region and put further pressure on Kyiv’s overstretched military. After weeks of probing, Moscow launched the new push knowing that Ukraine suffered personnel shortages, and that its forces have been spread thin in the northeast.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday during a visit to China that the Russian push aims to create “a buffer zone” rather than capturing Kharkiv, the local capital and Ukraine’s second-largest city.

Still, Moscow’s forces have pummeled Kharkiv with strikes in recent weeks, hitting civilian and energy infrastructure and prompting angry accusations from Zelenskyy that the Russian leadership sought to reduce the city to rubble. On Friday, Mayor Ihor Terekhov said that Russian guided bombs killed at least three residents and injured 28 others that day.

Moscow denies deliberately targeting civilians, but thousands have died or suffered injuries in the more than 27 months of fighting.

The U.S. last week announced a new $400 million package of military aid for Ukraine, and President Joe Biden has promised that he would rush badly needed weaponry to the country to help it stave off Russian advances. Still, only small batches of U.S. military aid have started to trickle into the front line, according to Ukrainian military commanders, who said it will take at least two months before supplies meet Kyiv’s needs to hold the line.

Thousands of Ukrainians have fled the country to avoid the draft since Russia’s all-out invasion in February 2022, some risking their lives as they tried to swim across a river separating Ukraine from neighboring Romania and Hungary.

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Late on Friday, Ukraine’s border service said that at least 30 people have died trying to cross the Tisza River since the full scale-invasion.

Romanian border guards days earlier retrieved the near-naked, disfigured body of a man that appeared to have been floating in the Tisza for days, and is the 30th known casualty, the Ukrainian agency said in an online statement. It said the man has not yet been identified.

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Follow AP’s coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

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An unusual autumn freeze grips parts of South America, giving Chile its coldest May in 74 years

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An unusual autumn freeze grips parts of South America, giving Chile its coldest May in 74 years

Chileans are bundling up for their coldest autumn in more than 70 years mere days after sunning in T-shirts — a dramatic change of wardrobe brought on this week by a sudden cold front gripping portions of South America unaccustomed to bitter wind chills this time of year.

CHILE SHUTS DOWN A POPULAR GLACIER, SPARKING DEBATE OVER CLIMATE CHANGE AND ADVENTURE SPORTS

Temperatures broke records along the coast of Chile and in Santiago, the capital, dipping near freezing and making this month the coldest May that the country has seen since 1950, the Chilean meteorological agency reported.

An unusual succession of polar air masses has moved over southern swaths of the continent, meteorological experts say, pushing the mercury below zero Celsius (32 Fahrenheit) in some places. It’s the latest example of extreme weather in the region — a heat wave now baking Mexico, for instance — which scientists link to climate change.

Footprints create the shape of a heart in a snow-covered rugby field in Santiago, Chile, Wednesday, May 8, 2024.  (AP Photo/Matias Basualdo)

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“The past few days have been one of the longest (cold fronts) ever recorded and one of the earliest ever recorded” before the onset of winter in the Southern Hemisphere, said Raul Cordero, a climatologist at Santiago University. “Typically the incursions of cold air from the Antarctic that drive temperatures below zero occur from June onwards, not so much in May.”

The cold front sweeping in from Antartica has collided with warm air pushing in from the northwestern Amazon, helping fuel heavy rainstorms battering Brazil, according to that country’s National Meteorological system.

Chile’s government issued frosty weather alerts for most of the country and ramped up assistance for homeless people struggling to endure the frigid temperatures on the streets. Snow cloaked the peaks of the Andes and fell in parts of Santiago, leading to power outages in many areas this week.

“Winter came early,” said Mercedes Aguayo, a street vendor hawking gloves and hats in Santiago.

She said she was glad for a boost in business after Chile’s record winter heat wave last year, which experts pinned on climate change as well as the cyclical El Niño weather pattern.

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“We had stored these goods (hats and gloves) for four years because winters were always more sporadic, one day hot, one day cold,” Aguayo said.

This week’s cold snap also took parts of Argentina and Paraguay by surprise.

Energy demand soared across many parts of Argentina. Distributors cut supplies to dozens of gas stations and industries in several provinces to avoid outages in households, , the country’s main hydrocarbon company, CECHA, said Thursday.

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Brussels, my love? Transparency over MEPs' side jobs

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Brussels, my love? Transparency over MEPs' side jobs

In this edition, we look at what lawmakers’ extracurricular activities mean for their core role.

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This week, we are joined by Sophia Russack, senior researcher from the Centre for European Policy Studies, Petros Fassoulas, secretary general of European Movement International and Anna Nalyvayko, senior project officer from the Wilfried Martens Center.

Panelists debate the ethical questions raised by MEPs who have side jobs. Those extra roles are legal, but the political earthquake caused by the Qatarargate scandal led to tighter rules and more transparency.

Is this enough to bridge the gulf between citizens and politicians, in today’s fractured political landscape?

“We see that they have improved rules when it comes to reporting requirements, to laying open your financial situation before and after the offers, and so on. But to be honest, none of these things will prevent another Qatargate,” said Sophia Russack, a think tanker who is an expert in EU institutional architecture, decision-making processes and institutional reform.

Despite these concerns, Petros Fassoulas said MEPs shouldn’t abandon contact with the real world altogether.

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“It’s important for them to have the opportunity to bring expertise from outside and engage also with the world outside of the chamber,” Fassoulas said. “An MEP or any parliamentarian should be in contact with the people that they regulate, the businesses that they have an impact on.”

Guests also discussed the reasons for the crisis of public confidence in politicians, and gave some ideas for solutions.

Watch “Brussels, my love?” in the player above.

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