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Explained: Denmark’s surprising U-turn on the EU common defence policy

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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine seems to be prompting the European Union to drop all of its long-standing taboos about defence, one after the other.

For the primary time ever, the bloc is financing the acquisition of deadly weapons for nations which can be beneath assault, a choice that European Fee President Ursula von der Leyen has described as a “watershed second”.

For the reason that EU treaties stop the frequent finances from bankrolling navy operations, the EU will present Ukraine with a €500 million fund beneath an off-budget instrument generally known as the European Peace Facility.

In the meantime, Germany has drastically reversed its post-WWII coverage that prevented the nation from sending deadly weapons to battle zones and is equipping the Kyiv authorities with 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 anti-aircraft Stinger missiles.

Finland and Sweden, two historically non-aligned nations, are additionally delivering arms to assist the Ukrainian military resist the Russian invasion. Even Switzerland, a non-EU member state, is ditching its sacrosanct neutrality to slap painful sanctions on the Kremlin.

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“European safety and defence has developed extra within the final six days than within the final twenty years,” von der Leyen instructed the European Parliament final week, reflecting on the transformative occasions that adopted the Russian assault on 24 February.

Now, one other European nation is having a change of coronary heart.

The Danish authorities led by Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has introduced the nation will maintain a referendum to rethink the 30-year-old opt-out clause that has thus far stored Denmark away from the EU frequent defence coverage.

The referendum can be held on June 1.

Frederiksen additionally stated the federal government will increase its defence spending to satisfy NATO’s 2% of GDP goal by 2033, up from its present 1.44% share. The final time the nation surpassed the two% mark was in 1989.

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“Putin’s pointless and brutal assault on Ukraine has heralded a brand new period in Europe, a brand new actuality,” Frederiksen stated at a press convention in Copenhagen.

“Ukraine’s battle is not only Ukraine’s, it is a take a look at of energy for every part we imagine in, our values, democracy, human rights, peace and freedom.”

A doc signed by Frederiksen’s Social Democrats alongside 4 different events speaks of a “new safety scenario” that should be confronted “with our allies in NATO and the EU.” In addition to adjustments to the nation’s defence coverage, the events contact upon Europe’s heavy reliance on Russian gasoline.

A tailored provision

For Denmark, the U-turn is momentous.

The opt-out clause was launched at Denmark’s behest as a part of the 1992 Edinburg Settlement, a textual content specifically designed to permit the Danish nation to ratify the 1991 Maastricht Treaty, which Danish residents had narrowly rejected with 50.7% of voters towards.

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The settlement proposed tailored provisions that clarified Denmark’s participation in 4 new fields the place the EU had begun to deepen its integration: citizenship, justice and residential affairs, the financial union (Denmark rebuffed the euro and stored the nationwide krone), and defence.

Right now, the opt-out continues to be in place and applies to the so-called Frequent Defence and Safety Coverage (CDSP), one of many predominant components of the bloc’s Frequent International and Safety Coverage (CFSP).

Consequently, Denmark, which is a NATO member, removes itself from all international coverage choices which have defence implications. Through the in-person conferences of international affairs ministers, the Danish consultant normally leaves the room when defence matters are broached.

All of the remaining 26 member states interact absolutely within the CDSP.

In apply, this implies the Nordic nation participates in collective motion associated to, for instance, financial sanctions, because it has been the case towards Russia, however stays clear on the subject of navy deployments, reminiscent of Operation IRINI, created to implement the United Nations arms embargo on Libya.

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These abroad missions are carried out beneath the management and coordination of the EU however their navy forces are seconded from member states on a case-by-case foundation.

Over 5,000 EU navy and civilian employees are presently stationed in CSDP missions throughout Europe, Africa and Asia, with most of them centered on disaster administration. A complete of 37 operations have been launched since 2003; virtually half of them nonetheless ongoing.

If Danish residents vote to repeal the opt-out clause, the nation will change into immersed within the frequent defence coverage and Danish troops can be deployed world wide beneath a centralised command.

‘Wake-up name’

Up to now, the CSDP has been a “technical venture,” centred on industrial cooperation and procurement somewhat than on constructing a correct EU military, a purpose nonetheless thought-about divisive and distant, says Bruno Lété, senior fellow on the German Marshall Fund of the US.

“Europeans have executed a foul job excited about their very own defence,” Lété tells Euronews.

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“Within the navy response to the Ukraine battle, Europe has joined the response. The US was clearly the motive force,” he provides. “Europeans at the moment are realising that this example is now not sustainable.”

However the Ukraine battle, with its horrors unravelling proper on the EU’s doorstep, has served as a “wake-up name” for the bloc, resulting in a “new dynamic”, says Lété. A dynamic the place capitals, from Berlin to Copenhagen, rethink their defence methods and change into extra conscious of the geopolitical atmosphere that surrounds them.

“It is nonetheless early to say how this [wake-up call] will develop. Some member states will prioritise NATO buildings. Others will argue the EU ought to be capable to lead its personal navy missions, if wanted,” the researcher says, noting that NATO will proceed so as to add worth “it doesn’t matter what.”

The 2024 presidential election in America may also play a task in boosting the EU’s personal defence capabilities and pursuit of self-reliance, in response to which approach the wind blows.

Even when President Joe Biden has made the EU-US rapprochement considered one of his international coverage priorities, the coverage could possibly be simply reversed by his successor and produce transatlantic relations again to the low factors of the Trump years. That risky interval, which nonetheless looms over Brussels, put the novel idea of strategic autonomy on the very high of the EU’s agenda, a debate as soon as rhetorical that’s now bearing its first fruit.

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The rising uncertainty round America’s electoral cycle is ready to be exacerbated by the challenges posed by a pariah Russian state constrained by sanctions however nonetheless dwelling aspect by aspect with the European Union.

“The following coming years can be years of everlasting instability,” Lété predicts.

“It’s going to maintain bringing Europeans collectively.”

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US Supreme Court's slow pace on immunity makes Trump trial before election unlikely

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US Supreme Court's slow pace on immunity makes Trump trial before election unlikely
Donald Trump’s bid for criminal immunity from prosecution for trying to overturn his 2020 election loss is set to be decided on Monday by the U.S. Supreme Court. But however it rules, the court already has helped the former president in his effort to avoid trial before the Nov. 5 election.
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Bolivia grapples with aftermath of failed coup attempt as nation strives to restore stability

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Bolivia grapples with aftermath of failed coup attempt as nation strives to restore stability
  • Bolivia has been left reeling after troops, led by General Juan José Zúñiga, briefly seized the presidential palace in La Paz during an attempted coup.
  • Military forces seized control of La Paz using armored vehicles and tear gas against protesters.
  • Authorities arrested Zúñiga as his soldiers retreated from central La Paz.

Calm returned to Bolivia’s capital on Thursday after troops led by a top general stormed the presidential palace, then quickly retreated, tumultuous scenes that threatened to pitch the long-troubled South American democracy into chaos.

The nation of 12 million watched in shock and bewilderment Wednesday as Bolivian military forces appeared to turn on the government of President Luis Arce, seizing control of the capital’s main square with armored personnel carriers, crashing a tank into the palace and unleashing tear gas on protesters who flooded the streets.

The country’s army chief, Gen. Juan José Zúñiga, addressed a scrum of TV reporters from the palace, vowing to “restore democracy,” replace the cabinet, and free political prisoners.

BOLIVIAN PRESIDENT SURVIVES FAILED COUP, CALLS FOR ‘DEMOCRACY TO BE RESPECTED,’ ARMY GENERAL ARRESTED

But as opposition leaders condemned the apparent coup attempt, it became clear that the coup had no meaningful political support. Arce refused to relent and named a new army commander, who immediately ordered troops to stand down, ending the rebellion after just three chaotic and head-snapping hours. Hundreds of Arce’s supporters rushed the square outside the palace, waving Bolivian flags, singing the national anthem and cheering.

Bolivian police hold the detained Juan Jose Zuniga, former general commander of the Army, in La Paz, Bolivia, on June 26, 2024. Calm returned to Bolivia’s capital on Thursday after troops led by a top general stormed the presidential palace, then quickly retreated, tumultuous scenes that threatened to pitch the long-troubled South American democracy into chaos. (AP Photo/Juan Karita)

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“Here we are, firm, in the presidential palace, to confront any coup attempt,” Arce said after facing down Gen. Zúñiga, calling on Bolivians to mobilize in defense of democracy.

Authorities swiftly arrested Zúñiga as his soldiers retreated from central La Paz, crushing the apparent coup attempt and defusing the latest crisis in a country wracked by a bitter political rivalry and economic crisis.

“Their goal was to overturn the democratically elected authority,” Government Minister Eduardo del Castillo told journalists in announcing the arrests of Zúñiga along with an alleged co-conspirator, former navy Vice Adm. Juan Arnez Salvador.

BOLIVIAN PRESIDENT WARNS ‘IRREGULAR’ MILITARY DEPLOYMENT UNDERWAY IN CAPITAL, RAISING COUP FEARS

The short-lived rebellion followed months of mounting tensions between Arce and his one-time ally, former President Evo Morales. Bolivia’s first Indigenous president, Morales remains a global leftist icon and towering figure in national politics years after mass protests that prompted him to resign and flee in 2019 — an ouster his supporters view as a coup.

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Since returning from exile, Morales has staged a dramatic political comeback. Threatening to challenge Arce in 2025 primaries, Morales has sparked an unprecedented rift in their ruling socialist party. The feud has paralyzed efforts to resolve a spiraling economic crisis, with the country’s foreign currency reserves diminishing, its natural gas exports plummeting and its currency peg collapsing.

Juan Arnez Salvador

Police hold the detained Juan Arnez Salvador, ex-commander general of the Bolivian Navy, in La Paz, Bolivia, on June 26, 2024. (AP Photo/Juan Karita)

As police in riot gear set up blockades outside the presidential palace, Bolivians — though no stranger to political conflict in a country that has witnessed some 190 coups by one count — thronged ATMs, formed long lines outside gas stations and emptied shelves in grocery stores and pharmacies.

Flanked by the newly appointed military chiefs late Wednesday, Defense Minister Edmundo Novillo sought to reassure the rattled public and shed light on what had happened.

The turmoil began earlier this week, Novillo said, when Arce dismissed Zuñiga in a private meeting Tuesday over the army chief’s threats to arrest Morales if he proceeded with his presidential bid in 2025. In their meeting, Novillo said that Zuñiga gave officials no indication he was preparing to seize power.

“He admitted that he had committed some excesses,” Novillo said of Zuñiga. “We said goodbye in the most friendly way, with hugs. Zuñiga said that he would always be at the side of the president.”

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The frantic palace takeover began hours later. Tailed by armored vehicles and supporters, Zuñiga burst into government headquarters and declared that he was sick of political infighting. “The armed forces intend to restore the democracy,” he said.

Supporters of Bolivian President Luis Arce enter Plaza Murillo

Supporters of Bolivian President Luis Arce enter Plaza Murillo amid tear gas launched by military police in La Paz, Bolivia, on June 26, 2024. (AP Photo/Juan Karita)

Members of the country’s fragmented opposition, which Zuñiga claimed to support, rejected the coup before it was clear it had failed. Former interim President Jeanine Áñez, detained for her role in Morales’ 2019 ouster, said that soldiers sought to “destroy the constitutional order” but appealed to both Arce and Morales not to run in the 2025 elections.

The mutiny by a lifelong member of the military with a low political profile stirred confusion. Just before his arrest, Zúñiga claimed that President Arce himself had asked the general to storm the palace in a ploy to boost the embattled leader’s popularity.

“The president told me: ‘The situation is very screwed up, very critical. It is necessary to prepare something to raise my popularity,’” Zúñiga quoted the Bolivian leader as saying.

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Justice Minister Iván Lima denied Zúñiga’s claims, insisting the general was lying to justify his actions. Prosecutors will seek the maximum sentence of 15 to 20 years in prison for Zúñiga on charges of “attacking the constitution,” he said.

Analysts said that, more than anything, Wednesday’s events underscored the weakness of Bolivia’s democratic institutions.

“This grants control to the military and erodes democracy and is an important signpost that the problems of the 2019 coup have not been addressed,” said Kathryn Ledebur, director of the Andean Information Network, a Bolivia-based research group. “Bolivia’s democracy remains very fragile, and definitely a great deal more fragile today than it was yesterday.”

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Caribbean braces for ‘very dangerous’ Hurricane Beryl

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Caribbean braces for ‘very dangerous’ Hurricane Beryl

DEVELOPING STORY,

Storm begins to shut down southeast Caribbean amid urgent pleas from government officials for people to take shelter.

Much of the southeast Caribbean is on alert as Beryl strengthens into the first hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic season, with forecasters warning of a “very dangerous” Category 3 storm.

The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Beryl – churning in the Atlantic Ocean about 675km (420 miles) east of Barbados – at 12:30 GMT on Sunday was expected to bring “life-threatening winds and storm surge” when it reaches the Windward Islands early on Monday.

Barbados, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada were all under hurricane warnings, while tropical storm warnings or watches were in effect for Martinique, Tobago and Dominica, the NHC said in its latest advisory.

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Cars were seen lined up at filling stations in the Barbadian capital, Bridgetown, while supermarkets and grocery stores were crowded with shoppers buying food, water and other supplies. Some households were already boarding up their properties.

Beryl is now only the third Category 3 hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic in June, following Audrey in 1957 and Alma in 1966, according to hurricane expert Michael Lowry.

“Only five major [Category 3+] hurricanes have been recorded in the Atlantic before the first week of July. Beryl would be the sixth and earliest this far east in the tropical Atlantic,” Lowry posted on X.

‘Devastating wind damage expected’

The NHC said by about 5am (09:00 GMT) on Sunday, Beryl’s maximum sustained wind speed had increased to nearly 100mph (160kmph) with higher gusts. Such a powerful storm forming this early in the Atlantic hurricane season – which runs from early June to late November – is extremely rare, experts said.

“Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning early on Monday,” the NHC said, warning of heavy rain, flooding and storm surge that could raise water levels as much as 9 feet (2.7 metres) above normal.

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“Devastating wind damage is expected where the eyewall of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward Islands,” the NHC added, indicating wind speeds in some locations could be 30 percent stronger than those listed in their advisory.

Beryl is likely to pass just south of Barbados early on Monday and then head into the Caribbean Sea as a major hurricane on a path towards Jamaica. It is expected to weaken by midweek but remain a hurricane as it heads towards Mexico.

Forecasters warned of a life-threatening storm surge in areas where Beryl will make landfall, with up to 6 inches (150mm) of rain for Barbados and nearby islands.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said in late May that it expects this year to be an “extraordinary” hurricane season, with up to seven storms of Category 3 or higher.

The agency cited warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures and conditions related to the weather phenomenon La Nina in the Pacific for the expected increase in storms.

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Extreme weather events including hurricanes have become more frequent and devastating in recent years as a result of climate change.

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