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Europe Reluctantly Readies Russian Oil Embargo

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Europe Reluctantly Readies Russian Oil Embargo

BRUSSELS — European officers are drafting plans for an embargo on Russian oil merchandise, probably the most contested measure but to punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine and a transfer lengthy resisted due to its large prices for Germany and its potential to disrupt politics across the area and improve vitality costs.

Having earlier this month banned Russian coal for the primary time — with a four-month transition interval to wind down ongoing orders — the European Union is now prone to undertake a equally phased ban of Russian oil, E.U. officers and diplomats mentioned. The strategy is designed to offer Germany, specifically, time to rearrange different suppliers.

The earliest the proposed embargo can be put up for negotiation can be after the ultimate spherical of the French elections, on April 24, to make sure that the impression on costs on the pump doesn’t gasoline the populist candidate Marine Le Pen and damage president Emmanuel Macron’s possibilities of re-election, officers mentioned.

The timeline is as essential as the small print of the ban, and is indicative of the brinkmanship required to persuade all 27 E.U. nations to comply with take a beforehand unthinkable step, as Russia prepares a renewed offensive in japanese Ukraine.

However officers and diplomats, who spoke on situation of anonymity as a result of they weren’t licensed to debate the matter with the press, mentioned that there was a rising sense that the measure could be taken even within the absence of a so-called set off — one other main information occasion just like the atrocities in Bucha. However an occasion of that sort might transfer the choice ahead.

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“The fee and E.U. members have well shied away from defining purple traces that will set off a sanctions response since Russia attacked Ukraine,” mentioned Emre Peker, a director on the Eurasia Group consultancy.

“I anticipate the E.U. will shrink back from defining triggers,” he added, “as continued escalation by Russia in japanese Ukraine and revelations from Bucha and elsewhere proceed to drive momentum behind a hardening European stance. Every other main catastrophes that unfold will simply add extra impetus to the E.U. response.”

The European Union, which has taken 5 rounds of more and more extreme monetary sanctions towards Russia for the reason that invasion started Feb. 24, is below large strain by allies to cease lining the Kremlin’s coffers by way of oil purchases. Up to now they’ve stored gasoline imports from Russia off the desk, as a result of they continue to be too vital to essential European economies, Germany’s specifically.

However a handful of its members are additionally ill-prepared to take care of the financial penalties from closing the faucet on Russian oil imports. Russia is the European Union’s largest oil provider, offering the bloc with 1 / 4 of its oil and petroleum product imports in 2020.

Germany, the bloc’s de facto chief, extremely depending on Russian oil and gasoline, has been a key nation resisting a fast, common and simultaneous E.U.-wide oil embargo, and far of the work across the particulars of the measure is targeted on making certain that Berlin comes on board.

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Germany will get 34 p.c of its oil from Russia. A key problem can be not solely to search out different suppliers to make up for that, but additionally to line up ample land transport for oil heading to its two refineries which can be fed by pipelines from Russia, specifically a refinery within the japanese metropolis of Schwedt, by the Polish border.

This week, the German ambassador to the USA elaborated on her nation’s pondering on vitality sanctions in an extended thread on Twitter.

“Going chilly turkey on fossil fuels from Russia would trigger a large, prompt disruption. You can’t flip fashionable industrial crops on and off like a lightweight swap. The knock-on results could be felt past Germany, the EU’s financial engine and 4th largest financial system on the planet,” the ambassador, Emily Haber, mentioned.

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Hungary, one other E.U. nation that’s extremely depending on Russian oil, has demanded any future sanctions be determined by E.U. leaders reasonably than senior diplomats or ministers, elevating the prospect of an emergency summit assembly to debate the subject.

For now, the drafting of the brand new measures is being finished by a small variety of consultants on the European Fee, the bloc’s government arm, led by President Ursula von der Leyen’s chief of workers, Björn Seibert.

However along with the French election, the timetable can be slowed by the Catholic Easter on April 16 and the Orthodox Easter on April 24, noticed as a vacation in Europe, that means that the measures could be put up for debate in late April or early Might on the earliest.

A European Union leaders’ summit on Ukraine is already scheduled for the tip of Might, however officers mentioned it was potential occasions on the bottom in Ukraine, specifically after the launch of the Russian offensive within the east, would make an earlier assembly to handle an oil embargo obligatory.

However with all these caveats making use of, what as soon as appeared an inconceivable step for Europe was now probably, officers mentioned.

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Following the working technique of drafting E.U. sanctions, the Fee shouldn’t be placing particulars of its proposals for an oil ban on paper — for worry it’s going to leak, or power public expressions of disagreement amongst E.U. nations and so break its try and challenge a united entrance.

As an alternative, small teams of diplomats will meet with Fee officers to debate the measures in coming days, all through the Easter break, officers mentioned.

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Officers and diplomats say there’s rising consensus that, in an effort to preserve unity among the many 27 states, a phased strategy is critical.

The more than likely strategy is a schedule that differentiates between kinds of oil merchandise and strategies of supply, with consensus constructing across the feasibility of a sooner embargo on oil transported by tankers, versus oil coming to Europe through pipelines. That concession is meant to carry Germany on board.

A minimal one-month transition interval can be a part of the oil ban at present mentioned, diplomats and officers mentioned.

“Whereas the route of journey — towards oil sanctions and general vitality decoupling from Russia — is obvious and broadly uncontested, many E.U. capitals led by Berlin need to roll out forthcoming measures with as little disruption as potential,” Mr. Peker mentioned.

“That can require phase-outs and exemptions, to permit nations with a heavy reliance on Russian provides to regulate. It’ll even be key to reaching consensus amongst 27 member states,” he added.

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Germany’s financial system minister, Robert Habeck, has publicly said that the nation is weaning itself off Russian oil with a year-end horizon, timeline that will probably be expedited.

“Corporations are letting their contracts with Russian suppliers run out, not renewing them and switching to different suppliers at an insane tempo,” Mr. Habeck mentioned in Berlin in late March.

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Jackie Farry, Nirvana Associate, Veteran Tour Manager and Frances Bean Cobain’s Former Nanny, Dies at 58

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Jackie Farry, Nirvana Associate, Veteran Tour Manager and Frances Bean Cobain’s Former Nanny, Dies at 58

Jackie Farry, an industry veteran who worked closely with Nirvana — becoming Frances Bean Cobain’s first nanny — and then was tour manager for Elliott Smith, the Jon Spencer Blues Explosion, the Lemonheads and others, died Sunday of complications from a lung disease. Farry, who had battled cancer for more than 20 years, was 58.

Farry’s industry career began at Homestead Records, where she was a receptionist for the influential indie label that was a precursor to Matador Records. She moved quickly into radio-promotion roles at Atlantic and Epic, but she quickly became a familiar and popular presence on the New York music scene and a friend to many of the bands of the era. After working with Nirvana until Kurt Cobain’s death in 1994, she was briefly host of a short-lived MTV show called “Super Rock” that was intended to replace the metal show “Headbangers’ Ball.” Later in the ’90s, Farry became a tour manager for bands like the Lemonheads, Jon Spencer Blues Explosion, Elliott Smith, Quasi, Stereolab and Quintron.

A native of New York, Farry was raised in the controversial Synanon community before relocating to Long Island. She was diagnosed with cancer in 2003 and her friends in the music industry rallied for her, with benefits headlined by such artists as the Breeders, Yeah Yeah Yeahs, TV on the Radio, Liars and Guided by Voices.

Her longtime friend and associate Janet Billig Rich told the Hollywood Reporter, “Jackie’s love for music was matched only by her sharp wit, humor, and magnetic personality. She was a beacon for friends and strangers alike, drawing people in with her infectious energy.”

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Donations in her honor can be made to LovePaws, Farry’s charity of choice.

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Incoming Trump administration given new blueprint on ways to weaken Iran: 'unique opportunity'

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Incoming Trump administration given new blueprint on ways to weaken Iran: 'unique opportunity'

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A new report shared with the Trump transition team and shown to Fox News Digital recommends drastic steps to curtail the Iranian regime just days away from the start of President-elect Donald Trump’s second term in office.

“President-elect Trump now has the unique opportunity to push back on the regime in a moment of its significant decline. By using diplomatic, informational, military, and economic means to hold Tehran accountable, he can promote regional stability and a new Middle East,” Ambassador Mark D. Wallace, CEO and founder of United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), told Fox News Digital.

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The UANI report, titled “A 100 Day Plan for the Incoming Trump Administration on Iran” is a blueprint for the administration to employ against Iran and has been shared with the Trump transition team, according to its authors.

Heavy weapons, including ballistic missiles, air defense systems and unmanned aerial vehicles, are displayed during the 44th anniversary of the 8-year war with Iraq, which is known as “Holy Defense Week”, at Baharestan Square in Tehran, Iran, on Sept. 25, 2024. (Photo by Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu via Getty Images)

INSIDE ISRAEL’S DARING RAID THAT DESTROYED IRAN-FUNDED UNDERGROUND MISSILE FACTORY IN SYRIA

“Since 1979, Iran has been the world’s number one state sponsor of terrorism, the major cause of instability in the Middle East, and has brutally repressed its people with impunity,” Wallace said.

The report recommends that the incoming Trump administration take a comprehensive, whole-of-government approach across, as Ambassador Wallace said, the diplomatic, informational, military and economic sectors alongside allies to properly hold Iran accountable for its regional destabilization efforts.

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Iranian protesters carry flowers while standing in front of a giant banner depicting a portrait of Lebanon's Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah during a protest gathering to condemn an Israeli air strike against Hezbollah's headquarters in the suburb of Beirut and the killing of Hassan Nasrallah and an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force commander, General Abbas Nilforoushan, in Tehran, Iran, on Sept. 30, 2024.

Iranian protesters carry flowers while standing in front of a giant banner depicting a portrait of Lebanon’s Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah during a protest gathering to condemn an Israeli air strike against Hezbollah’s headquarters in the suburb of Beirut and the killing of Hassan Nasrallah and an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force commander, General Abbas Nilforoushan, in Tehran, Iran, on Sept. 30, 2024. (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Iran fears the incoming Trump administration, said co-author of the report Jason Brodsky, adding he believes there is a strategic opportunity for Washington and its allies to capitalize on that fear to advance U.S. interests.

“Rushing into premature diplomacy risks undermining that dynamic,” Brodsky, policy director of UANI, told Fox News Digital. 

The report outlines several specific policy prescriptions in order to weaken Iran and argues that the U.S. government should first build a pressure campaign against Iran which will sharpen the regime’s choices.

IRAN EXECUTES OVER 1K PRISONERS IN 2024, HIGHEST TOTAL IN 30 YEARS, REPORT SAYS

In this new policy approach, the United States should learn from Israel’s experience since Oct. 7 about how to strike the Islamic Republic militarily without triggering a wider war.

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Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, left, and President-elect Donald Trump.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, left, and President-elect Donald Trump. (AP)

“If the Israelis can do so without triggering a wider war, so can the U.S. government,” Brodsky said.

The authors assert that President-elect Trump should deliver a major policy address to warn Tehran that the U.S. would not hesitate to use military force to destroy Iran’s nuclear program if it takes steps to further advance its capabilities. The International Atomic Energy Agency reported in early December enriched uranium to weapons-grade levels. French President Emmanuel Macron said Iran’s nuclear program is nearing the “point of no return” with many seeing it as a method to build leverage against the incoming Trump administration.

Additionally, the report’s authors say the incoming Republican administration could also use targeted strikes against Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders, Quds Force and Intelligence Ministry assets inside Iran if Iran or its proxies harm Americans. Targeted strikes should also hit Iran’s repressive apparatus through cyber and kinetic means if security forces violently suppress innocent protesters, as happened in 2009 after the disputed presidential election and in 2022 following the death of Mahsa Amini, who had been arrested by the morality police for not covering her hair with a hijab.

Iran Mahsa Amini protest

Demonstrators in Iran protesting the regime in 2022. (Credit: NCRI)

U.S. strikes or retaliations against the regime, the report notes, have been non-existent or focused on the Islamic Republic’s proxies.

“That dynamic only emboldens Iranian decision-making to calculate the benefits of these operations against Americans outweigh the costs and to doubt the U.S. resolve to defend its interests. The incoming Trump administration should reverse that calculus and one way to do so is to start holding Iran’s regime responsible on Iranian soil for the terrorism of its proxies,” Brodsky explained. The U.S. should also build a military defector program and encourage political and military actors across the Islamic Republic, including within the Revolutionary Guard and other security forces, to defect from the regime. 

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IRAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM IS NEARING ‘THE POINT OF NO RETURN,’ FRANCE’S MACRON SAYS

A key source of Iranian revenue is provided by its vast oil exports and allows Iran to sustain its terror across the Middle East through its “Axis of Resistance” proxy networks. In 2024, Iran exported 587 million barrels of oil, an increase of 10.75% compared to the previous year due to OPEC cuts and lack of sanctions enforcement. 

Claire Jungman, co-author and director of the Tanker Tracking Program and chief of staff of UANI, told Fox News Digital that Iran’s oil exports have surged to nearly 2 million barrels per day—the highest in five years—under President Biden’s administration, reflecting weakened sanctions enforcement and the impact of billions in unfrozen assets. 

Iran rocket space

The Simorgh, or “Phoenix,” rocket launches at Iran’s Imam Khomeini Spaceport in rural Semnan province, Iran, on Friday, Dec. 6, 2024. (Iranian Defense Ministry via AP)

“The incoming Trump administration has a critical opportunity to halt Tehran’s illicit revenue streams and restore maximum pressure on the regime,” Jungman added.

Iran is the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism and is a key source of regional Islamist terror groups including Hezbollah and Hamas, the group responsible for the Oct. 7 attacks against Israel. The State Department estimates that Iran provides some $100 million annually to Hamas and helps fund Hezbollah with about $700 million a year.

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UANI cautions against some in Western capitals who wish to seek negotiation with Tehran and views this flawed approach of endless negotiations as a way Iran can buy time and avert pressure. Ambassador Wallace said the previous maximum pressure campaign worked, and it’s time to reapply this policy as the regime faces setback after setback as it became embroiled in regional conflict with Israel after October 7th.

“With the loss of its proxies and the support of the Iranian people … the Iranian regime’s days are numbered and, inevitably, the brave Iranian people will rise against the weakened corrupt mullahs,” Wallace said.

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Lebanon President Joseph Aoun starts consultations for PM selection

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Lebanon President Joseph Aoun starts consultations for PM selection

Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and top ICJ judge Nawaf Salam seen as frontrunners.

Lebanon’s new President Joseph Aoun has begun binding consultations with members of parliament to nominate a prime minister.

Aoun’s consultations got under way at 8:15am (06:15 GMT) on Monday with a meeting with Elias Abu Saab, the deputy parliament speaker, according to the official National News Agency.

Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who is backed by the Hezbollah-led alliance, and Nawaf Salam, a favourite of anti-Hezbollah legislators who is the presiding judge at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague, are seen as the frontrunners.

The consultations follow Aoun’s election last week amid foreign pressure to form a government desperately needed to tackle major challenges in the country.

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Lebanon had been without a president since October 2022, run by a caretaker government amid a crushing economic crisis compounded by all-out war between Lebanese group Hezbollah and Israel.

The outcome of the parliamentary consultations is expected to emerge by the end of the day. Once the prime minister is selected, it is their job to form a new government, a process that could take months.

“The newly elected President Aoun said that he hopes the next prime minister will be a partner and not an opponent,” said Al Jazeera’s Zeina Khodr, reporting from the Lebanese capital, Beirut. “A man who has the support of the international community, and a man who is ready to carry out much-needed reforms.”

Big challenges

Lebanon has a unique power-sharing system, designed to balance power among the nation’s different communities.

The president, who must be a Maronite Christian, serves as head of state and commander-in-chief of the armed forces. Meanwhile, the prime minister must be a Sunni Muslim and has significantly more executive power than the president.

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The speaker of parliament, who leads parliamentary debates as well as playing the role of political mediator, has to be a Shia Muslim.

One of the country’s richest men, Mikati has headed the country in a caretaker capacity throughout the presidential vacuum.

Mikati said on the sidelines of the presidential vote on Thursday that he was ready to serve Lebanon “if needed”.

However, Hezbollah’s opponents see Mikati as part of an old political system that the group has within its grip.

Whoever heads Lebanon’s new government will face major challenges, including implementing reforms to satisfy international donors amid the country’s worst economic crisis in its history.

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They will also face the daunting task of reconstructing swaths of the country after the Israel-Hezbollah war and implementing the November 27 ceasefire agreement, which includes the thorny issue of disarming the Lebanese armed group.

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