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EU membership, seizing Russia’s money needed to rebuild Ukraine: Analysts

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EU membership, seizing Russia’s money needed to rebuild Ukraine: Analysts

Ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine may soon be under way, but Ukraine’s economic recovery will be hobbled unless the European Union fast-tracks the war-torn country’s membership and provides hundreds of billions of euros’ worth of insurance and investment, experts tell Al Jazeera.

“I think what Ukraine needs is some kind of future where it will have a stable and defendable border, and that will only come, I would think, with EU membership,” historian Phillips O’Brien told Al Jazeera.

The US administration of President Donald Trump last month handed Ukraine and Russia a ceasefire proposal that excluded future NATO membership of Ukraine, satisfying a key Kremlin demand and leaving Ukraine without the security guarantees it seeks.

“What business is actually going to take the risk of getting involved there economically?” asked O’Brien. “With NATO off the table, I think if Ukraine is going to have a chance of rebuilding and being integrated into Europe, it will have to be through a fast-tracked EU membership.”

That membership is by no means assured, although the European Commission started negotiations in record time last June, and Ukraine has the support of EU heavyweights like France and Germany.

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[Al Jazeera]

If Ukraine becomes an EU member, it would still face a devastated economy requiring vast investment.

The Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) estimated that between Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022 and November last year, Moscow’s onslaught had destroyed $170bn of infrastructure, with the housing, transport and energy sectors most affected.

That figure did not include the damage incurred in almost a decade of war in the eastern regions of Luhansk and Donetsk since 2014 or the loss of 29 percent of Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) from the invasion in 2022. The estimate also did not put a value on the loss of almost a fifth of Ukraine’s territory, which Russia now occupies.

That territory contains almost half of Ukraine’s unexploited mineral wealth, worth an estimated $12.4 trillion, according to SecDev, a Canadian geopolitical risk firm.

It also does not include some types of reconstruction costs, such as chemical decontamination and mine-clearing.

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The World Bank put the cost of infrastructure damages slightly higher this year, at $176bn, and predicts the cost of reconstruction and recovery at about $525bn over 10 years.

‘The Kremlin has certainly looted occupied territory’

Economic war has been part of Russia’s strategy since the invasion of Donetsk and Luhansk in 2014, argued Maximilian Hess, a risk analyst and Eurasia expert at the International Institute of Strategic Studies.

“The Kremlin has certainly looted occupied territory, including for coking coal, agricultural products, and iron,” Hess told Al Jazeera.

The KSE has estimated Russia stole half a million tonnes of grain, included in the $1.9bn damages bill to the agricultural sector.

Using long-range rocketry, Russia also targeted industrial hubs not under its control.

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Ukraine inherited a series of factories from the Soviet Union, including the Kharkiv Tractor Plant, the Zaporizhia Automobile Plant, the Pivdenmash rocket manufacturer in Dnipro and massive steel plants.

“All were targeted by Russian forces,” wrote Hess in his recent book, Economic War. “Russia’s attacks were, of course, primarily aimed at devastating the Ukrainian economy and weakening its ability and will to fight, but they also raised the cost to the West of supporting Ukraine in the conflict, something the Kremlin hoped would lead to reduced support for Kyiv.”

Through occupation and targeting, Russia managed to deprive Ukraine of a flourishing metallurgy sector.

According to the United States Geological Survey, metallurgical production decreased by 66.5 percent as a result of the war.

That is a vast loss, considering that Ukraine once produced almost a third of the iron ore in Europe, Russia and Central Eurasia, half of the region’s manganese ore and a third of its titanium. It remains the only producer of uranium in Europe, an important resource in the continent’s quest for greater energy autonomy.

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Ukraine’s claims to have built a $20bn defence industrial base with allied help, a rare wartime economic success story.

That can make up for the losses in metallurgy, Hess said, “but only in part and in different regions of the country from which those mining and metallurgical ones were concentrated. Boosting [metallurgical activities] in places like Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, and ideally territory ultimately freed from Russian occupation, will be necessary to win the peace.”

Trump’s minerals deal, and other instruments

Weeks ago, Ukraine and the US signed a memorandum of intent to jointly exploit Ukraine’s mineral wealth.

Ukraine committed to putting half the proceeds from its metallurgical activities into a Reconstruction Fund, but experts doubted the notion that mineral wealth can rebuild Ukraine.

“Projects have a long launch period … from five to 10 years,” Maxim Fedoseienko, head of strategic projects at the KSE Institute, told Al Jazeera. “You need to make documentation, environmental impacts assessment, and after that, you can also need three years to build this mine.”

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The US and EU might invest in such mines, Fedoseienko said, because “we have more than 24 kinds of materials from the EU list of critical [raw] materials,” but they would only contribute to the Ukrainian economy if investments were equitable.

Trump presented the minerals deal as payback for billions in military aid.

“There’s nothing remotely fair about it. The aid was not given to be paid back,” said O’Brien.

As Fedoseienko put it, “It is not fair if everyone will say, ‘OK, we will help you in a time of war, so you are owned [by] us.’”

People next to the houses heavily damaged by a Russian drone attack outside Kyiv, Ukraine
Residents are seen next to houses heavily damaged by a Russian drone strike outside of Kyiv [File: Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters]

In addition to fairness, Ukraine needs money. Some of that needs to come in the form of insurance.

A state-backed war-risk insurance formula Kyiv reached with the United Kingdom in 2023, for example, brought bulk carriers back to Ukraine’s ports and defeated Russian efforts to blockade Ukrainian grain exports.

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As a result, Ukraine exported 57.5 million tonnes of agricultural goods in 2023-2024, and was on track to export 77 million tonnes in the 2024-2025 marketing year, which ends in June, its agriculture ministry said.

“There needs to be a substantial expansion of public insurance products in particular, as well as a move to seize frozen Russian assets,” said Hess.

Seizing some $300bn in Russian central bank money held in the EU was deemed controversial, but the measure is now receiving support.

“The Russian state has committed these war crimes, has broken international law, has done this damage to Ukraine –  that actually becomes a just way of helping Ukraine rebuild,” said O’Brien. “[Europeans] have a very strong case for this, but they, right now, lack the political will to do it.”

Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has already repeatedly asked Europe to use the money for Ukraine’s defence and reconstruction.

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What Europeans have done in the meantime is going some way towards rebuilding Ukraine.

Some $300m in interest payments proceeding from Russian assets are diverted to reconstruction each year.

A European Commission programme provides 9.3 billion euros ($10.5bn) of financial support designed to leverage investment from the private sector.

Financial institutions such as the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the European Investment Bank are providing loan guarantees to Ukrainian banks, which gives them liquidity.

“So Ukrainian banks can provide loans to Ukrainian companies to invest and operate in Ukraine. This is a big ecosystem to finance investment and operational needs to the Ukrainian economy,” said Fedoseienko.

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Together with the finance ministry, the KSE operates an online portal providing information about the various instruments available, which has already helped bring 165 investments to fruition worth $27bn.

“Is it enough to recover the Ukrainian economy?” Fedoseienko asked. “No, but this is a significant programme to support Ukraine now.”

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Analysis: Trump’s policies set to widen EU-US innovation gap

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Analysis: Trump’s policies set to widen EU-US innovation gap

As the curtain falls on 2025, policymakers in Brussels have yet to decisively counter the negative economic impacts of two major developments: the trade deal struck between the European Union and the United States this summer, and President Trump’s so-called “Big Beautiful Bill”, a mammoth piece of domestic legislation with global economic implications.

The EU’s slow progress toward improving relative business conditions at such a volatile moment has left investors frustrated and looking elsewhere.

According to a report published this week by the European Round Table for Industry, the leaders of the bloc’s industrial giants are “alarmed at the lack of urgency in delivering on Draghi and Letta’s bold reforms to restore the business case for investing in Europe.”

The report also points to a survey of CEOs conducted in October, which shows that only 55% expect to stick to their investment plans. Even worse, a mere 8% intend to invest more in Europe than they planned to six months prior, in contrast with the 38% who will either invest less than previously intended or have put decisions on hold.

And most tellingly, the US now attracts more investment than originally planned by 45% of respondents.

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The ‘carrot-and-stick’ approach

The Trump administration’s combination of supply-side economics and protectionism has converted the necessity of avoiding US tariffs into a massive financial incentive for foreign companies and multinationals to invest in the United States directly.

The Big Beautiful Bill, which Trump signed into law in July, formalised huge tax breaks and effectively guaranteed incentives to shift investments across the Atlantic. Namely, the 100% bonus depreciation for new machinery and factories, as well as the 100% immediate expensing of domestic research and development (R&D) costs, mitigating the expenses of moving production and innovation to the US.

Companies have until 1 January 2026 to finalize their decisions and collect retroactive benefits for capital deployed in 2025, but the conditions will remain the same next year.

To compound the EU’s growing inability to compete, the heavily criticised EU-US trade deal was agreed in the same month. The agreement de-escalated the transatlantic trade war of 2025 but it levied a 15% tariff on the vast majority of the EU’s industrial exports to the US, with an exemption from duties for most US-made goods bound for the EU market.

In addition, the EU committed to spending over €640 billion in US energy, investing more than €500 billion in the US economy and buying around €35 billion worth of US-made AI chips, until the end of President Trump’s mandate. Meanwhile, the United States made no similar pledges.

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As for corporations, the choice became simple: relocate investment to the US, avoid the tariff and claim massive tax deductions.

The innovation gap in numbers

The R&D siphon is the most critical threat to Europe’s future competitiveness, as the Trump administration’s new incentives pull core innovation to the US.

In the most innovative industries, such as the AI and healthcare sectors, the numbers for 2025 already demonstrate the chasm between the EU and the US.

In the first three quarters of this year, private investment flowing into US AI companies exceeded €100 billion, with the US capturing over 80% of global AI funding. In contrast, the entire EU attracted just shy of €7 billion, according to the widely read State of AI Report 2025.

This severe 15-to-1 funding deficit means the technological future is being built and scaled primarily outside the EU, something that has been recognised by the European Parliament.

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Likewise, the EU is aiming to achieve 20% market share in semiconductor manufacturing by 2030, as outlined in the Chips Act, but experts say such a goal is unlikely given that Europe is among the slowest growers in the sector year-on-year.

Furthermore, the EU is even falling behind on AI adoption among young users, according to a new survey by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.

As for the pharmaceutical industry, CEOs sent a stark warning to President von der Leyen back in April that “unless Europe delivers rapid, radical policy change then pharmaceutical research, development and manufacturing is increasingly likely to be directed towards the US.”

In the following weeks, fuelled by the fear of the ongoing transatlantic trade war at the time and frustration with the European regulatory scene, the third largest company in Europe by market capitalization, the Swiss-based Roche, committed over €40 billion in US investment over the next five years. Likewise, the French multinational Sanofi announced an investment of €17 billion to expand manufacturing in the US through 2030.

In July, as the Big Beautiful Bill and the EU-US trade deal were being agreed, the British-Swedish company AstraZeneca also declared investing over €40 billion in the US over the next five years, including the construction of a chronic disease research centre in the state of Virginia, the company’s largest single investment in a facility to date.

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In November, the White House announced a large-scale agreement between two pharmaceutical rivals, the American manufacturer Eli Lilly, and the Danish corporation Novo Nordisk, known for pioneering the prescription drug for type 2 diabetes, Ozempic, which has also been widely used off-label for weight loss.

The two companies agreed a strategy to reduce the prices of several medications for Americans and announced new investments in the US, with Novo Nordisk committing roughly €8.5 billion to expand US manufacturing capacity. In exchange, the Danish company is expected to receive a three-year exemption from US tariffs, among other benefits.

In total, the European pharmaceutical industry has pledged more than €100 billion for US expansion in 2025 alone with multi-year commitments.

The scramble to deregulate

The pressure applied by the US is evident as this year has seen the European Commission pivot to an aggressive deregulation agenda.

In response to a request from the European Council, six simplification proposals, referred to as “omnibuses”, have been presented since February covering energy, finance, agriculture, technology, defence and chemicals.

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Notably, the so-called Digital Omnibus was introduced in November, and it includes delays to provisions of the AI Act and modifications to the GDPR.

These initiatives aim to rapidly cut red tape and reduce bureaucratic costs for European businesses in an attempt to stem the outflow of talent and capital. However, the proposed measures are still facing legislative scrutiny, as well as administrative oversight and political backlash from privacy and climate advocates, among others.

It was only this week that an agreement was finally reached on the first omnibus, another sign that the EU is still far from offering the immediate financial certainty of minimising or avoiding US tariffs while benefiting from President Trump’s policies where possible.

The numbers reveal the plain economic truth: while the EU debates the fine print of deregulation, the investment in innovation is already being decisively relocated.

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Dakota Johnson Joins Lily Allen to Play ‘Madeline’ on ‘SNL’

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Dakota Johnson Joins Lily Allen to Play ‘Madeline’ on ‘SNL’

Star Dakota Johnson made a surprise appearance on “Saturday Night Live” this week, playing the mysterious “Madeline” during Lily Allen‘s performance of that track. The song was Allen’s second of the night.

During the performance, Johnson was mostly hidden behind a screen through the song, as Allen sang about the mistress. But Johnson performed the spoken word portion of the song, which appears on Allen’s album “West End Girl.” In the track, Allen notes that she and her signficant other “had an arrangement: Be discreet and don’t be blatant. And there had to be payment. It had to be with strangers. But you’re not a stranger, Madeline.”

Later in the song, “Madeline” explains her side of the story via texts to Allen: “I hate that you’re in so much pain right now. I really don’t wanna be the cause of any upset. He told me that you were aware this was going on and that he had your full consent. If he’s lying about that, then please let me know. Because I have my own feelings about dishonesty. Lies are not something that I wanna get caught up in. You can reach out to me any time, by the way. If you need any more details or you just need to vent or anything. Love and light, Madeline.”

After reading those lines, Johnson came out from behind the curtain and walked up to Allen — and gave her a quick kiss.

“Madeline” is one of the standout tracks from Allen’s new album “West End Girl,” and has led to much speculation over who the mysterious pseudonym is (or might be a composite of). At least one person has told the press that she is “Madeline,” although Allen has said that it’s actually a composite of several women.

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For her first “SNL” number, Allen performed “Sleepwalking” from “West End Girl,” in a bedroom set under a neon sign. Given the saucy lyrics, Allen did have to censor herself, omitting the lyric, “Why aren’t we fucking, baby?” (She did the same thing with “Madeline,” avoiding part of the line “I’m not convinced that he didn’t fuck you in our house.”)

Allen appeared on “Saturday Night Live” to promote “West End Girl,” which has been met with wide acclaim for its brutal honesty and craftsmanship. The album addresses her split from “Stranger Things” star David Harbour, without ever mentioning him by name. (As characterized through scathing lyrics on songs such as “Pussy Palace,” “Sleepwalking” and “Madeline.”)

In his Variety review, Chris Willman called “West End Girl” a contender for album of the year. He wrote of “savoring every confessional line and wondering what the hell she was going to tell us in the next one to top it. It’s the pleasure of listening to a master storyteller who makes your jaw drop by seeming to have spilled all the tea almost at the outset, and then the tea just keeps on coming. Not since Boston in 1773, maybe, has anyone dumped it this massively, or this fulfillingly.”

“West End Girl” repped Allen’s first album release since 2018. Allen has announced a tour next March to support the album, which marks Allen’s first time touring since 2019.

This is Allen’s second time on “Saturday Night Live,” following an appearance on the Feb. 3, 2007 episode hosted by Drew Barrymore. During that episode, Allen performed the tracks “Smile” and “LDN” from her debut album “Alright, Still.”

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Australian authorities: Bondi Beach shooting was ‘terrorism … designed to target Sydney’s Jewish community’

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Australian authorities: Bondi Beach shooting was ‘terrorism … designed to target Sydney’s Jewish community’

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A mass shooting during a Hanukkah celebration at Bondi Beach in Sydney, Australia, on Sunday evening left at least 12 people dead and 29 people hospitalized, authorities say.

The annual celebration, known as “Chanukah By The Sea,” was scheduled to kick off at 5 p.m. to celebrate the first day of the Jewish holiday by lighting the first candle on the Menorah. Police say the attack “targeted” the Jewish community and is being investigated as an act of terrorism.

The New South Wales Police Force (NSWPF) said officers responded to reports of shots fired at about 6:45 p.m. on Sunday. Police say there were at least two gunmen involved in the attack, and they are investigating the possibility of a third. Twelve people were killed in the shooting, including one of the two suspected gunmen, police said. The second alleged shooter is in critical condition.

At least 29 others were hospitalized after the shooting, including two police officers, the agency confirmed. The shooting is the worst attack against Jews since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas terror attacks.

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ANTISEMITIC ATTACKERS VIOLENTLY TARGET SYNAGOGUE, ISRAELI RESTAURANT IN AUSTRALIA

An investigation is underway after a deadly attack on a Hanukkah event at Bondi Beach in Sydney, Australia, on Sunday.  (David Gray/AFP via Getty Images)

Police added that they found evidence of multiple improvised explosive devices in a vehicle near the scene of the attack.

“We have our rescue bomb disposal unit there at the moment working on that,” he said. 

Israeli President Isaac Herzog acknowledged the attack while speaking at an event in Jerusalem recognizing immigrants’ extraordinary achievements on Sunday.

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“At these very moments, our sisters and brothers in Sydney, Australia, have been attacked by vile terrorists in a very cruel attack on Jews who went to light the first candle of Chanukah on Bondi Beach,” Herzog said. “Our hearts go out to them. The heart of the entire nation of Israel misses a beat at this very moment, as we pray for the recovery of the wounded, we pray for them and we pray for those who lost their lives.”

AUSTRALIA’S JEWISH COMMUNITY ALARMED BY RISING ANTISEMITISM: ‘FEAR AND ANXIETY’

A health worker moves a stretcher after a shooting incident at Bondi Beach in Sydney, Australia, on Dec. 14, 2025. (Saeed Khan/AFP via Getty Images)

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Herzog also called on the Australian government to “seek action and fight against the enormous wave of antisemitism which is plaguing Australian society.”

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