World
China threat looms large as Taiwan votes in pivotal election: 'choice between war and peace'
The future of Taiwan hangs in the balance as voters head to the polls to pick their next president in what remains a closely watched contest with intense interest from China and the U.S.
“This election has been a real test for whether the Taiwan electorate is willing to push back against Chinese pressure and coercion and make an independent choice for who they want to be their next leader,” Matt McInnis, senior fellow for the Institute for the Study of War’s China program, told Fox News Digital.
“That choice is going to determine the nature of the security situation over the next four years — in particular in the western Pacific,” McInnis said, noting the most expected result will see the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win.
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People vote for the presidential election at a polling station in southern Taiwan’s Tainan city on Saturday, Jan. 13, 2024. Taiwanese are casting their votes Saturday for a new president in an election that could chart the trajectory of its relations with China over the next four years. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
The DPP faces stiff competition from the Koumintang (KMT), or Chinese Nationalist Party, which has tried to cast the ruling party as dangerous leadership that will steer the country towards conflict with China due to its insistence on pursuing formal independence.
William Lai of the DPP leads with an average of 36% of the vote, while KMT’s Hou Yu-ih has 31% and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) candidate Ko Wen-je sits at 24% as of Jan. 1, according to The Economist.
Taiwan does not release any new polls within 10 days of the election, but voter sentiment shows that some polls have the leading candidates separated by just 1%.
Supporters of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) hold up banners during a campaign rally in Taipei City, Taiwan, on Thursday. (Annabelle Chih/Getty Images)
McInnis noted that Taiwan officials have already highlighted “pervasive” Chinese information operations “at unprecedented levels,” framing the election as a “choice between war and peace.”
China has not publicly named a preferred candidate or specified what the “right” choice is, but Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office labeled DPP’s candidate William Lai as an “obstinate Taiwan independence worker” who would further promote separatist activities.
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Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry condemned China for “once again blatantly intimidating the Taiwanese people and the international community” and trying to influence the election.
“China has tried to shape that narrative over the past 10 to 12 months, and I think they’ve been fairly effective with that,” McInnis explained, arguing that “China’s influence operations, psychological operations during the campaign… ultimately is not dramatically swinging the election in the way they would like it to.”
Democratic Progressive Party presidential candidate William Lai votes in southern Taiwan’s Tainan city on Saturday, Jan. 13, 2024. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
Beijing has employed other tactics to influence Taiwanese voters, including economic pressure and some broad military coercion: China launched a satellite on Tuesday that flew over Taiwan as it exited the atmosphere, and some surveillance balloons wandered into Taiwan’s airspace, China expert Gordon Chang told Fox News Digital.
“[Chinese President] Xi Jinping in his 2024 New Year message actually listed the annexation of Taiwan in the portion of his speech where he put all the things he hoped would occur [this year],” Chang explained. “Of course, there have been threats to cut off trade, they have worked very closely in China with some of the candidates in Taiwan, so the election interference has been substantial.”
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Chang also noted the negative impact China’s pressure has had on its ambitions, prompting the voters to instead focus on geopolitical issues and “issues of identity.”
“Those who identify as Chinese only [on Taiwan] is usually less than 5%, and that is the core support of KMT,” Chang said.
Hou Yu-ih, presidential candidate for the Kuomintang and mayor of New Taipei City, arrives for a news conference in Taipei, Taiwan, on Thursday. (Chan Long Hei/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Chang called Taiwan’s election “fascinating,” arguing that even if China’s preferred candidate should win, he expects to see “friction” between the island and the mainland.
“If you have a pro-China president… there’s going to be friction regardless of who was elected, and we have just got to make sure we do not permit China to interfere anymore,” he said.
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Chinese President Xi Jinping reviews the honour guard during a welcome ceremony at The Great Hall of the People on November 22, 2023 in Beijing, China. (Florence Lo – Pool/Getty Images)
Lai has tried to reach out and start a dialogue with Beijing following eight years of near-total non-communication, but insisted that he would continue to “build up Taiwan’s defense deterrence, strengthen Taiwan’s capabilities in economic security, enhance partnerships with democracies around the world and maintain stable and principled leadership on cross-Strait relations.”
Lai has also, in turn, portrayed the KMT as a pro-Beijing group, which has various levels of allegiance to the mainland ranging from a similar stance to the DPP’s own to one that seeks distance with the U.S. to maintain strong, positive relations with the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP), according to The Diplomat. A small number of die-hard party members still seek reunification with China — a stance at odds with the opinion of the public.
Supporters of Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) attend an election campaign rally in Taipei, Taiwan, on Thursday. (Annice Lyn/Getty Images)
Heino Klinck, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for East Asia and military attaché to China, puts a lot of weight on public sentiment to maintain autonomy.
“The election in Taiwan is a manifestation of what a vibrant democracy looks like,” Klinck told Fox News Digital, calling Taiwan “a very striking juxtaposition to what the People’s Republic of China represents.”
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“It evolved relatively peacefully from an autocratic one-party nation to a very, very vibrant democracy in all its forms, and it shows you that democracy can work,” Klinck added, suggesting that, “From a U.S.-Taiwan bilateral perspective… whoever will be leading [Taiwan], it’s not going to change much.”
“I could see nuances in the approach that a new Taiwanese president, depending on who it is, will take with respect to the cross-Strait relationship and, more specifically, from a national security and defense perspective,” Klinck explained. He highlighted concerns that the KMT might “roll back some of the progress that has been made under the leadership of President Tsai [Ing-wen].”
Klinck visited Taiwan as part of a delegation from the Ronald Reagan Foundation to demonstrate the strong ties between the U.S. and Taiwan and meet with Tsai, who stressed the shared values of freedom and democracy between the two countries.
Klinck stressed that as much as the election itself matters, he would suggest keeping an eye on the months between the election and the inauguration in May, during which time he expects Beijing to ramp up pressure on the president-elect — especially in the event DPP’s Lai does win.
“I envision that the Chinese will escalate their pressure on the president-elect because the inaugural speech will set a tone and the Chinese will try to influence that tone,” Klinck said.
The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.
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The official additionally stated that Iran has reviewed a US 15-point proposal for ending the ongoing war in the Middle East and deemed it “one-sided and unfair,” serving only US and Israeli interests, and lacking “the minimum requirements for success.”
“In brief, the proposal suggests that Iran would relinquish its ability to defend itself in exchange for a vague plan to lift sanctions,” he told Reuters.
No arrangement for negotiations has been established yet, the official continued, adding that Turkey and Pakistan are attempting to “establish common ground between Iran and the United States and reduce differences.”
The proposal, which was conveyed to Iran through Pakistan, “was reviewed in detail on Wednesday night by senior Iranian officials and the representative of Iran’s Supreme Leader,” the official said.
On Wednesday, Iranian regime-tied Press TV cited an Iranian official as stating that Tehran considered the conditions of the proposal excessive and would only agree to end the war at a time of its choosing if its conditions are met.
According to an N12 News report on Tuesday, citing three sources familiar with the details of the potential plan, the US was considering declaring a month-long ceasefire during which negotiations on the agreement would take place.
The 15-point plan reportedly contained terms including the dismantling of all existing Iranian nuclear capabilities, a commitment that Iran will discontinue efforts to obtain nuclear weapons, and a requirement that any already enriched uranium be moved out of Iran.
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U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine are being tied to Kyiv ceding the eastern Donbas region to Russia as part of a potential peace deal, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Reuters in an interview published Thursday.
“The Americans are prepared to finalize these guarantees at a high level once Ukraine is ready to withdraw from Donbas,” Zelenskyy said, describing a proposal he warned could undermine both Ukraine’s defenses and broader European security.
But a U.S. official, speaking on background, told Fox News Digital the claim is false.
Zelenskyy’s comments point to growing pressure from President Donald Trump to reach a swift end to the war, now in its fourth year following Russia’s 2022 invasion.
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Zelenskyy suggested the administration’s approach is influenced in part by competing global crises, including the ongoing conflict involving Iran.
U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine are being tied to Kyiv ceding the eastern Donbas region to Russia as part of a potential peace deal, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. (Pavlo Bahmut/Ukrinform/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
“The Middle East definitely has an impact on President Trump,” Zelenskyy said. “President Trump, unfortunately, in my opinion, still chooses a strategy of putting more pressure on the Ukrainian side.”
Talks between the United States, Russia and Ukraine have taken place in Abu Dhabi and Geneva in 2026, but key issues remain unresolved, including how Ukraine’s future security would be guaranteed and who would fund its long-term defense.
Zelenskyy warned that abandoning Donbas would hand Russia heavily fortified Ukrainian defensive lines, weakening Kyiv’s position and potentially enabling future aggression.
“I would very much like the American side to understand that the eastern part of our country is part of our security guarantees,” he said.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that abandoning Donbas would hand Russia heavily fortified Ukrainian defensive lines. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
Russian President Vladimir Putin has long insisted that full control of Donbas is central to Moscow’s war aims. While Russian forces have made gains, analysts cited by Reuters say progress has been slow, and capturing the remaining territory could take significant time and manpower.
Zelenskyy also warned that Moscow is betting Washington will lose interest if negotiations stall.
“Russia is counting on the fact that the United States will not have the strength or patience to bring this to an end,” he said.
Despite tensions over negotiations, Zelenskyy thanked the Trump administration for continuing deliveries of Patriot missile defense systems, which Ukraine relies on to intercept Russian ballistic missiles.
“Deliveries to us were not stopped. I’m very grateful to President Trump, and to his team,” he said, while adding that supplies remain insufficient.
In parallel with the diplomatic push, Zelenskyy signaled a broader strategy to expand Ukraine’s role as a security provider, particularly in the Middle East, where countries are seeking solutions to large-scale drone and missile threats.
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A cemetery worker prepares a burial vault at military cemetery outside of the city of Dnipro, Ukraine, May 25, 2023. (Seth Herald/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
“The United States has reached out to us regarding their bases in Middle Eastern countries,” Zelenskyy wrote on X Thursday, adding that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait have also approached Ukraine.
He said Ukrainian teams are already on the ground sharing operational experience, particularly in countering mass drone attacks.
“No matter how many Patriots, THAADs, or other air defense systems are in the Middle East, that alone is not enough,” he wrote. “There are modern interceptors designed to counter heavy drone strikes.”
Zelenskyy also indicated Ukraine is exploring defense trade arrangements, offering to sell surplus systems and expertise while seeking access to air defense missiles it currently lacks.
“Funding is the scarcest resource today,” he wrote, noting Ukraine’s defense industry is operating at roughly half capacity and needs additional financing to scale drone production.
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Ukraine is exploring defense trade arrangements, the country’s president said. (Iryna Rybakova/Press Service of the 93rd Kholodnyi Yar Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces/Reuters)
In separate posts tied to an address at a Joint Expeditionary Force summit, Zelenskyy emphasized that Ukraine’s battlefield experience could play a broader role in European and global security.
“We have this experience. … Let’s bring all of this together even more,” he wrote, calling for deeper cooperation with European partners and warning that the continent must build its own capacity to produce air defense systems rather than rely on external suppliers.
Reuters contributed to this story.
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