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Analysis: Sanna Marin’s defeat puts European socialists in tight spot

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Analysis: Sanna Marin’s defeat puts European socialists in tight spot

Sanna Marin, the charismatic Finnish prime minister whose recognition exceeded nationwide borders and attracted worldwide consideration, has been faraway from energy.

Though her occasion, the social democrats, managed to win three seats in comparison with the 2019 elections, the outcomes left the incumbent within the third spot, proper behind the centre-right Nationwide Coalition Social gathering and the far-right populist Finns Social gathering.

For the Socialists & Democrats (S&D), the group within the European Parliament that gathers socialist lawmakers from all throughout the European Union, Marin’s departure represents one more chapter in a collection of stinging electoral disappointments.

In early March, the Social Democratic Social gathering (SDE) of Estonia got here fifth within the nation’s common election, with 9.2% of votes.

In September, Sweden, a reliably socialist stronghold, modified course and elevated Ulf Kristersson, the chief of the liberal-conservative Average Social gathering, to the premiership.

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That very same month, the Democratic Social gathering (PD) of Enrico Letta fell under expectations in Italy’s common election, dropping seats in each chambers of parliament and paving the best way for the victory of Giorgia Meloni and her hard-right, three-party coalition.

Additionally final 12 months, Anne Hidalgo, the candidate of the Socialist Social gathering (PS), acquired an astonishing 1.75% of votes within the first spherical of France’s presidential election, a defeat of historic proportions that pushed the 53-year-old occasion into the depths of irrelevance.

Though every nation is a singular amalgam of political traditions, nationwide tradition and social beliefs, the emergence of a Europe-wide sample is turning into more and more tough to disregard for the socialists.

“There are two issues which can be coming collectively. On the one hand, it is a tough time for events in authorities, with the rising prices of dwelling and excessive power costs,” Nicolai von Ondarza, a political scientist and senior researcher on the German Institute for Worldwide and Safety Affairs (SWP), stated.

“Secondly, I’d say that, specifically, centre-left events have had troubles for the final 20 years.”

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Regardless of essential wins in the previous couple of years, most notably when Olaf Scholz succeeded Angela Markel as German Chancellor after 16 years of conservative-led governments, the upward pattern seems to be stalling.

“The current elections confirmed us that this was solely a brief pattern and that if in any respect, the centre-left events can solely govern in additional complicated coalitions,” von Ondarza informed Euronews.

“Socialists are hardly a dominating pressure in any European nation.”

Iratxe García, the chief of the S&D group, challenged this pessimistic outlook and interpreted the Finnish ballot as residents giving Marin’s time period in workplace a “optimistic evaluation.”

“Nevertheless, the rise of the suitable and the intense proper is one thing to fret about,” García informed Euronews.

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“We’ll maintain a detailed eye on the negotiations and the programme of the brand new authorities in order that they do not backslide away from the pro-European agenda set by the earlier authorities.”

A gradual tilt to the suitable

With Marin all however assured to be denied a second run as prime minister, the ability dynamics within the European Council, the establishment that defines the EU’s political orientation, are set to shift as soon as once more, additional deepening a tilt to the suitable that started final 12 months.

Out of the 27 member states, socialists could have 5 heads of presidency: Olaf Scholz in Germany, Pedro Sánchez in Spain, Mette Frederiksen in Denmark, António Costa in Portugal and Robert Abela in Malta.

Three of them – Frederiksen, Costa and Abela – had been re-elected final 12 months, whereas Scholz is predicted to stay in energy till autumn 2025. 

On the opposite aspect of the desk, liberals rule over France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Estonia and Slovenia. A wide range of conservative events dominate the remaining international locations, from the mainstream European Folks’s Social gathering (EPP) in Greece, Austria, Sweden and sure quickly Finland, to the hard-right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) in Italy, Poland and the Czech Republic.

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“This underlines the pattern of a European Council that is extra tilted in direction of the suitable in financial, social and environmental points, but additionally of a European Council that may nonetheless stay united, for example, on how to reply to the warfare in Ukraine,” stated von Ondarza.

“The impact will likely be extra gradual than revolutionary. Finland isn’t big, in any case, however it’s one other piece within the puzzle that results in a European Council dominated extra by the centre-right.”

The configuration in Brussels drastically raises the stakes forward of Spain’s common election, anticipated to be held no later than 10 December. 

Pedro Sánchez and his 143-year-old socialist occasion, often called PSOE, are presently trailing in opinion polls behind the conservative opposition of Alberto Núñez Feijóo, whose attainable accession to energy would in all probability necessitate an alliance with Vox, a far-right occasion polling third.

Eyeing a Spanish triumph, the EPP has ratcheted up criticism towards Sánchez’s government, as mirrored in a current session of the European Parliament, throughout which EPP lawmakers pushed to incorporate Spain and Malta in a debate across the rule of regulation after the socialists focused Greece.

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“The polling is fairly impartial between European international locations and to win in a single nation would not essentially result in a win abroad,” Manuel Müller, a senior analysis fellow on the Finnish Institute of Worldwide Affairs (FIIA), informed Euronews.

“After all, it will be most welcome for the EPP in the event that they had been to drive house the victory in Spain. However, in the event that they lose in Spain, if the socialists get better and may kind a authorities once more, this will likely be a morale enhance for the socialists.”

Highway to 2024

Whereas in Spain the PSOE is a strong pressure and a formidable competitor, in Poland, the opposite huge EU nation that goes to the polls this 12 months, the socialists are break up into small-sized events which have just about no probability of attaining energy on their very own.

In truth, the Polish race is successfully a contest between the Eurosceptic hard-right of the ruling Regulation and Justice occasion (PiS) and the pro-European alliance Civic Coalition (KO) headed by Donald Tusk, a former president of the European Council and probably the most distinguished EPP politicians.

Against this, socialists are polling rather more favourably within the upcoming elections of Slovakia, the place they continue to be within the opposition, and Luxembourg, the place they’re a part of the liberal-led coalition.

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The outcomes of all these nationwide polls will inevitably be seen as a bellwether of the 2024 European Parliament elections, an event that may renew the 705 MEPs contained in the hemicycle along with the presidencies of the European Fee and the European Council.

The final time the socialists received the most important variety of seats contained in the European Parliament was in 1994, when the bloc consisted of 12 member states, together with the UK. Since then, the EPP has dominated each election, a management that analysts credit score to the enlargement of Jap Europe.

This has led to an interrupted string of European Fee presidents affiliated with the EPP, most just lately Ursula von der Leyen, who has come beneath stress from a few of her friends to undertake a more durable stance on migration and decelerate her formidable environmental agenda.

The most recent projection by Europe Elects, a ballot aggregator that tracks each European nation, places the EPP within the lead with 163 seats and the S&D second with 143, figures which can be consistent with a gradual sample however fall under the outcomes obtained by each events in 2019.

In a press release to Euronews, Manfred Weber, the chief of the EPP group, was sure his occasion’s surge would proceed and the victories in Sweden and Finland could be replicated in Poland and Spain.

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“Disaster occasions are EPP occasions and with a warfare on the continent, when the livelihoods of individuals are threatened by power costs and inflation, folks select dependable politics,” Weber stated.

“We’re assured we are able to proceed the optimistic momentum, particularly within the Spanish and Polish elections later this 12 months. One factor is evident the EU will likely be extra EPP blue in 2024 than many individuals count on!”

However Manuel Müller warned the overlapping crises of current years – the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s warfare in Ukraine, power crunch, hovering inflation – would in the beginning profit disruptive far-right events fairly than the EPP itself, which is taken into account a part of the European institution.

“I would not say that Europe is popping in direction of the European Folks’s Social gathering. I’d say that the successes within the elections had been largely attributable to totally different nationwide constellations,” Müller stated.

“We simply must get used to the truth that we’re in a everlasting disaster. Political volatility and uncertainty are rising. And, after all, this makes it simpler for the far-right to have a populist attraction.”

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Katarina Barley, an S&D MEP who serves as one of many European Parliament’s vice-presidents, struck an analogous observe and lashed out towards the EPP for teaming up with far-right events to realize energy.

“This sample appears to be turning into ordinary amongst European conservatives beneath EPP management. To develop energy within the European Council, EPP member events collaborate with Europe’s enemies,” Barley stated in an electronic mail, wherein she admitted the Finnish elections had been “no trigger for celebration.”

“Conservatives bear a particular duty: whoever will get concerned with Europe’s enemies buries the European mission. You will need to keep in mind that, particularly in the course of the 2024 European elections run-up.”

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'It Ends With Us' director Justin Baldoni sues New York Times for libel over Blake Lively story

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'It Ends With Us' director Justin Baldoni sues New York Times for libel over Blake Lively story

“It Ends With Us” director Justin Baldoni sued The New York Times for libel on Tuesday over its story on allegations that he sexually harassed and sought to smear the reputation of the film’s star, Blake Lively.

The lawsuit seeking at least $250 million was filed in Los Angeles Superior Court, the next major move in a growing story that has made major waves in Hollywood. It alleges the Times and Lively coordinated a smear campaign against Baldoni and his nine fellow plaintiffs.

The Times stood by its reporting and said it plans to “vigorously defend” against the lawsuit.

The plaintiffs include the film’s lead producer Jamey Heath, its production company Wayfarer Studios, and crisis communications expert Melissa Nathan, whose text message was quoted in the headline of the Dec. 21 Times story: “‘We Can Bury Anyone’: Inside a Hollywood Smear Machine.”

Written by Megan Twohey, Mike McIntire and Julie Tate, the story was published just after Lively filed a legal complaint that is usually a predecessor to a lawsuit with the California Civil Rights Department over her alleged treatment.

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Both her legal complaint and the Times story allege Baldoni enlisted publicists and crisis managers in a plan to destroy Lively’s reputation if she went public with her on-set concerns.

Baldoni’s lawsuit says the newspaper “relied almost entirely on Lively’s unverified and self-serving narrative, lifting it nearly verbatim while disregarding an abundance of evidence that contradicted her claims and exposed her true motives. But the Times did not care.”

A spokesperson for the Times, Danielle Rhoades, said in a statement that “our story was meticulously and responsibly reported.”

“It was based on a review of thousands of pages of original documents, including the text messages and emails that we quote accurately and at length in the article. To date, Wayfarer Studios, Mr. Baldoni, the other subjects of the article and their representatives have not pointed to a single error,” the statement said.

But the lawsuit says that “If the Times truly reviewed the thousands of private communications it claimed to have obtained, its reporters would have seen incontrovertible evidence that it was Lively, not Plaintiffs, who engaged in a calculated smear campaign.”

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Lively is not a defendant in the lawsuit. Her lawyers said in a statement that “Nothing in this lawsuit changes anything about the claims advanced in Ms. Lively’s California Civil Rights Department Complaint.”

The romantic drama “It Ends With Us,” an adaptation of Colleen Hoover’s bestselling 2016 novel, was released in August, exceeding box office expectations with a $50 million debut. But the movie’s release was shrouded by speculation over discord between Lively and Baldoni. Baldoni took a backseat in promoting the film while Lively took centerstage along with her husband Ryan Reynolds, who was on the press circuit for “Deadpool & Wolverine” at the same time.

Lively came to fame through the 2005 film “The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants,” and bolstered her stardom on the TV series “Gossip Girl” from 2007 to 2012. She has since starred in films including “The Town” and “The Shallows.”

Baldoni starred in the TV comedy “Jane the Virgin,” directed the 2019 film “Five Feet Apart” and wrote “Man Enough,” a book pushing back against traditional notions of masculinity. He responded to concerns that “It Ends With Us” romanticized domestic violence, telling the AP at the time that critics were “absolutely entitled to that opinion.”

He was dropped by his agency, WME, immediately after Lively filed her complaint and the Times published its story.

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Associated Press writer Ryan Pearson contributed to this story.

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Republican congressman calls on incoming administration to target 'The Axis of Aggressors'

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Republican congressman calls on incoming administration to target 'The Axis of Aggressors'

As the 119th Congress prepares for an opening session on January 3rd, one Republican Congressman appeals to the incoming Trump administration to advance U.S. interests and target foreign malign actors.

In a letter obtained by Fox News Digital, South Carolina Republican Rep. Joe Wilson calls on Secretary of State nominee, Senator Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and National Security Advisor nominee, Representative Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) to “prioritize using U.S. law enforcement mechanisms to expose and dismantle Georgian sanctions evasion schemes, scam call centers, and other illicit Georgian Dream enterprises.”

FORMER GEORGIAN PRIME MINISTER SAYS NATION’S ELECTION WAS ‘RIGGED,’ AND ‘WRITTEN IN MOSCOW’

The letter comes after the United States imposed sanctions on Georgia’s former Prime Minister and Russia made billionaire, country’s de-facto ruler Bidzina Ivanishvili.

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These operations, according to the congressman’s letter, enable Ivanishvili’s regime to profit from atrocities such as Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, “which is abetted by Chinese, North Korean, and Iranian complicity”.

On December 27th, Ivanishvili was sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury for “undermining the democratic and Euro-Atlantic future of Georgia for the benefit of the Russian federation”.

Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC) speaks during a press conference on the Ukrainian Victory Resolution on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., April 25, 2023.  (REUTERS/Julia Nikhinson)

Congressman Wilson, who chairs The Helsinki Commission, calls sanctions on Ivanishvili a “significant step forward” and urges the incoming administration to extend sanctions to Ivanishvili’s immediate family members and cronies:

“This is a key opportunity to advance our shared goals of defending democracy and countering malign influence worldwide. The Axes of Aggressors would be deprived of a significant force multiplier should Georgia return to rule by the Georgian people,” – the letter reads.

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GEORGIAN PM PRAISES COUNTRY’S PROTEST CRACKDOWN DESPITE US CONDEMNATION

Wilson’s letter is a continuation in the series of public outcries among Georgia watchers in the United States and Europe following Georgian Dream’s highly disputed victory in October parliamentary elections and government’s subsequent decision to pause its accession to the European Union that led to massive daily demonstrations throughout the country.  

Local and international election observers, including International Republican Institute’s (IRI) mission, concluded elections were “fundamentally flawed”.

Founder of the Georgian Dream party Bidzina Ivanishvili speaks after the announcement of exit poll results in Tbilisi

Founder of the Georgian Dream party Bidzina Ivanishvili speaks after the announcement of exit poll results in parliamentary elections, at the Georgian Dream party headquarters in Tbilisi, Georgia October 26, 2024.  (REUTERS/Irakli Gedenidze)

“Reflecting on what IRI’s mission observed and on what has transpired since the election, only new elections can restore the Georgian people’s confidence in their government’s legitimacy,” said IRI President Dan Twining.

Despite domestic and international calls for new elections, a single party parliament conveyed to anoint the only presidential candidate, former soccer player and a hard-line West critic Mikheil Kavelashvili on December 29th in an inauguration ceremony, visibly missing foreign dignitaries and guests.

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Georgian Dream officials have repeatedly downplayed the prospect of U.S. sanctions. Minutes after the Treasury’s announcement, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze claimed – “in reality, nothing has changed”.

RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER BLASTS UKRAINE PEACE DEAL REPORTEDLY FLOATED BY TRUMP’S TEAM: ‘NOT HAPPY’

Kobakhidze, as well as other party leaders, also voiced optimism about “positive changes” after President Trump will take office on January 20th. However, this scenario is unlikely, according to Laura Linderman, Senior Fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council.

“Given that Trump’s national security team would likely pursue an even tougher stance against countries aligned with China and Iran, Georgian Dream’s apparent calculation that they would receive more favorable treatment under a Trump administration is misguided,” Linderman tells Fox News Digital.

Trump

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump looks on during Turning Point USA’s AmericaFest at the Phoenix Convention Center on December 22, 2024, in Phoenix, Arizona.  (Rebecca Noble/Getty Images)

Linderman also says congressional Republicans are largely united in their support for Georgia’s democratic future and “Trump would be unlikely to expend political capital challenging the bipartisan consensus on Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic path”.

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In recent years Ivanishvilis’s Georgian Dream government has increasingly isolated itself from the West and has aligned with authoritarian regimes. Georgia – until recently – a strategic U.S. partner has now formalized such partnership with China, has favoured Chinese companies over American investments, adopted Russian style “foreign agent” law, and suspended EU accession talks. This year alone, PM Kobakhidze has paid a number of visits to Iran. In Tehran he attended both – funeral of late Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and inauguration of the new president Masoud Pezeshkian, who was sworn in with chants of “Death to America, Israel”

Heritage Foundations Senior Counselor and leading foreign policy expert James Carafano tells Fox News Digital, that regimes that are leaning on support from Moscow and Beijing are going to find that “playtime is over”, adding they cannot expect a “favorable or indifferent hand” from the Trump administration.

“If there are U.S. interests at stake, and there are some in Georgia, governments that want to lean on Moscow are likely to not only get a cold shoulder from Trump, they are probably going to get hit with the shoulder pads,” Carafano says.

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From Germany to Romania: the elections that will define Europe in 2025

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From Germany to Romania: the elections that will define Europe in 2025

Voting in Europe during 2025 promises major political shifts – Germany’s snap Bundestag vote, Romania’s presidential race, Poland’s referendum on Tusk’s government and the rise of populist forces in Czechia, Norway and beyond. These contests could reshape the future of the European Union.

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If 2024 was a year marked by elections around the world – featuring Donald Trump’s return to power in the US, the consolidation of right-wing parties in the EU elections, a political shift in the UK from the Conservatives to Labour, and the re-election of Narendra Modi in India – 2025 promises to bring its own set of surprises in Europe.

Here’s a round-up of the key elections taking place in 2025 and what we can expect:

Germany: back in the European political game ?

After the Bundestag’s vote of no-confidence on Chancellor Olaf Scholz on 16 December 2024, snap elections are due to take place on 23 February 2025.

The electoral campaign has been marked by the attack on Magdeburg’s Christmas market on 20 December by a doctor, who is also refugee from Saudi Arabia. Though attacker held Islamophobic views, according to Interior Minister Nancy Faeser, and expressed support for the Alternative für Deutschland (AFD) party, the incident has nonetheless crystallised anti-immigration sentiment in a region of eastern Germany already won over by the AFD.

The AfD is currently polling at 20%, second behind the CDU/CSU (32%), which has capitalised on the rejection of the SPD-Grunen-FDP coalition. The CDU is headed by Friedrich Merz, a potential future chancellor, who is proposing a policy that is more economically liberal than under Merkel and more conservative socially, for example on the issue of migration.

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Merz, who rose during the Helmut Khol era, is committed to a more integrated Europe. He wants to relaunch relations with France and Poland, criticises Europe’s heavy dependence on the United States and calls for Taurus Cruise missiles to be sent to Ukraine.

Romania: a tense presidential race after foreign meddling and the rise of anti-EU populism

Romania will hold new presidential elections in 2025 after the Constitutional Court annulled the first round of voting. The court’s decision came following concerns over foreign interference in an election where the centrist, pro-EU candidate Elena Lasconi and far-right, pro-Russian candidate Călin Georgescu advanced to the second round. 

The ruling followed evidence of Russian interference in the election, particularly the artificial boost Georgescu received on social media platforms, notably TikTok. Until then, Georgescu was relatively unknown to the public, but his online support alarmed authorities. 

Meanwhile, the legislative elections, which were not annulled, saw a victory for the Social Democrats. 

A new presidential vote is expected to take place in the first half of 2025. Official proceedings launched by the European Commission against TikTok under the Digital Services Act will provide deeper insight into how the platform’s algorithms function during elections. 

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Poland: a test of Tusk’s government approval amid strong right-wing opposition

The upcoming presidential elections in May in Poland are shaping up to feel like a referendum on the government led by Donald Tusk, in power since December 2023, which unites parties from the left to the centre-right. While it is Prime Minister Tusk (Civic Platform) who holds significant sway over day-to-day governance, the President still plays a crucial role. Current President Andrzej Duda from the Law and Justice (PiS) opposition party, who has held the position for eight years prior to Tusk’s return, has used his veto power to block many of the government’s policies. 

The presidential race is now a showdown between candidates from the two main parties: Rafał Trzaskowski, the Mayor of Warsaw for Civic Platform (PO), and Karol Nawrocki, a historian, who will represent PiS. Although the race is tight, opinion polls suggest that the Civic Platform is likely to emerge victorious. 

Italy: local elections challenge the stability of a government on shaky ground

An important electoral test awaits Giorgia Meloni next September, as elections will be held in six regions: Puglia, Campania, Le Marche, Tuscany, Valle d’Aosta, and Veneto. These elections will offer a snapshot of Italian public opinion on the relatively stable Meloni government, at least by Italian standards. Last November, coalition parties were outflanked by the centre-left coalition in the regional elections in Emilia-Romagna and Umbria – a setback for Meloni. 

The Veneto region will come under particular scrutiny, given its large population and long history of being governed by the populist League, a key player in the ruling coalition. 

In Puglia, MEP Antonio Decaro, chair of the Environment committee and of the Democratic Party could run as governor.

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Czech Republic: the risk of a strong Europhobic axis in Central Europe

In Czechia, parliamentary elections will take place in October 2025.

The latest polls give ANO (which sits with The Patriots in the European Parliament), led by populist Andrej Babiš, 34.5% of the vote, well ahead The Civic Democratic Party (ODS) – with ECR in the EP-, led by conservative Prime Minister Petr Fiala, expected to win 13.7%, followed by the center-right STAN party (EPP) – 11%.

Babis’ victory would strengthen a far-right axis in Central Europe, which includes Hungary’s Victor Orban and Slovakia’s Robert Fico. The billionaire former prime minister has been dubbed the “Czech Trump”. Anti-elite and anti-migrant, he is also opposed to more European Union integration and shows complacency towards Russia. Many fear attacks against democracy in Czechia if he returns to power. 

Croatia: the reelection of a ‘nationalist’

Croatians will elect their President of the Republic in a second round run-off on 12 January. Zoran Milanovic, the current head of state, is standing for re-election. Heis running as an independent but is supported by a coalition led by the Social Democratic Party (SDP).

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Zoran Milanovic took everyone by surprise during the parliamentary elections last April when he decided to run as head of the SDP list in Zagreb. His candidacy was rejected by the Constitutional Court.

The president calls himself a “nationalist.” He is opposed to the government’s support for Ukraine and the participation of Croatian soldiers in the NATO-led mission to train Ukrainian soldiers. He leads with 37,4% in the polls, ahead of Andrej Plenkovic (20,8%), the candidate supported by the prime minister’s party, the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) – which sits with the European People Party (EPP) at the European Parliament – and advocates strengthening Croatia’s ties with its Western allies.

United Kingdom: will Labour’s victory last year translate into lasting support?

On 1 May, the UK will hold its first elections since last July’s general election, which saw the Labour Party return to power and Keir Starmer become Prime Minister. 

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This vote for England’s county councils will serve as a key test for Labour, revealing whether their victory last year will be the beginning of lasting support for the party.

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According to Sky News, polls suggest that Labour and the Conservatives are currently neck and neck in the mid-20% range – a historically low level of backing for both parties – with Reform UK, Nigel Farage’s populist party, trailing by just five points. Reform UK currently holds no seats in local councils. 

Belarus: an election with a silenced opposition

The 2020 Belarusian presidential election was marred by widespread electoral fraud, violent repression of the opposition and brutal crackdowns on protesters challenging the results. The election, which saw dictator Alexander Lukashenko claim a disputed victory with 80% of the vote, was widely condemned, with the European Union and other countries refusing to recognise the outcome. Alexander Lukashenko has been in power since 1994. 

Since then, Belarusian human rights group Viasna has reported that over 50,000 people have been arrested on political grounds. 

With the next election scheduled for 26 January, little is expected to change. Lukashenko has already warned that he may cut off internet access entirely during the 2025 presidential race if protests akin to those of 2020 erupt, according to state-run news outlet Belta in November. 

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Russia: a foregone conclusion

In the upcoming Russian elections next September, voters will casting their ballot for the Duma by-elections to fill vacant seats in the lower house of parliament, as well as for governors in 18 regions, regional parliaments in 11 regions, and local government representatives across various areas.

However, there are growing concerns regarding the fairness of these elections. Media freedom remains severely restricted, and political opponents continue to face harsh repression, personified by the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny. These issues cast a long shadow over the integrity of the electoral process. 

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Norway: will the EU’s rightward shift reach Norway?

On 8 September, Norway will hold parliamentary elections that will decide the makeup of the 169-seat Storting and indicate who might become the next prime minister. Jonas Gahr Støre, leader of the centre-left Labour Party, currently holds the position. 

As seen across Europe, the latest polls suggest a shift towards right-wing parties. The far-right Progress Party is expected to come out on top – its 10% share of the vote in 2021 is predicted to double by 2025. Hot on their heels is the centre-right Conservative Party, led by former Prime Minister Erna Solberg. 

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Ireland: turning the page after Higgins

No official date has been set yet, but the Irish will head to the polls by November 2025 to elect a new president, ending the popular Michael D. Higgins’ 14 years in office. Although largely ceremonial, the role of the President holds significant constitutional responsibilities, such as signing bills into law and representing Ireland on the global stage. 

While no candidates have formally entered the presidential race, Irish media outlet The Journal is speculating on potential contenders. Among the names mentioned are familiar faces from Brussels: former European Commissioner Mairead McGuinness and former MEP Frances Fitzgerald – both from the centre-right party Fine Gael. 

The upper house of the Irish Parliament, the Seanad, will also be renewed, though through an indirect process. Forty-nine senators will be elected by university graduates, while 11 will be appointed by the Prime Minister and vocational panels. Final results are expected from 30 January. These elections follow the dissolution of the lower house, the Dáil, on 8 November. 

Georgia: will the local elections confirm the country’s pro-Russian orientation as pro-Europe protests continue?

In October 2025, Georgia will hold elections, one year after the disputed parliamentary elections won by the Georgian Dream party which as been widely accused of being pro-Russian. The country is the site of a struggle for influence between Russia and the West,  while Russian troops have occupied 20% of Georgian territory since 2008.

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The new government’s decision on 28 November to postpone the country’s EU accession process until 2028 provoked a wave of demonstrations in Tbilisi and other cities across the country. Georgia gained EU candidate status in December 2023, but the process was halted by the EU, citing the country’s democratically unstable conditions.

29 December marked the end of pro-European President Salome Zurabishvili’s term in office, who was replaced by the pro-Russian former footballer Mikheil Kavelashvili. He was elected on 14 December by the parliament in which Georgian Dream has a majority, in a vote that was boycotted by the opposition. As the stranglehold on pro-European forces intensifies, demonstrators have faced a heavy-handed response by the authorities. Meanwhile, Salome Zurabishvili refuses to recognise the new president and stand down from her position. 

Moldova: pro-Russian ambush as parliamentary elections scheduled for 2025

As a buffer state to Ukraine, Moldavia is facing attempts at Russian interference with a disinformation campaign. The referendum on accession to the European Union in autumn 2024 went down to the wire in favour of the “Yes” camp (50.35%). Meanwhile, the pro-European president Maia Sandu was re-elected in a second round of voting.

For the 2025 legislative elections, the President’s party (The Party of Action and Solidarity – PAS) is playing for keeps. If it fails to win a majority, it will have to contend with other political forces, not all of which supported the “Yes” vote in the referendum. For Maia Sandu, these elections will be “a final battle” in Moldova’s road to EU membership, in a country where pro-Russian political opposition remains strong.

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Albania: the same two political parties fighting for power

In Albania, President Bajram Begaj has set parliamentary elections for 11 May 2025 after a consultation was boycotted by the main opposition Democratic Party (DP), which accused the president of endorsing a pre-determined date by the Socialist Party.

Prime Minister Edi Rama’s Socialist Party and the DP are playing for big stakes in this election: the DP will be attempting to put an end to the Socialist Party’s three successive terms in office. The country has been in the throes of a serious political crisis for several years, the political debate being highly polarised between the DP and the socialists, heir to the communist regime and Enver Hoxha’s Party of Labour. 

The opposition has accused the government of sending opposition figures to prison for political reasons. This lack of political plurality coupled with domestic resistance to fighting corruption makes EU accession talks challenging, with the negotiations for EU membership having officially started in 2022.

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In May 2025, for the first time, Albanians living abroad will have the opportunity to vote. 

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Kosovo: will the pro-independence party keep its majority ?

In Kosovo, the Self-Determination Movement (Vetëvendosje), Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s party, is well set to win again in the parliamentary elections in February 2025. Since his landslide supermajority victory in 2021, the opposition has lacked leaders capable of challenging Kurti.

After the February’s poll, the question will be whether his party will be able to secure a majority or whether it will have to include opposition parties or representatives of the Serbian community in the government.

Srpska Lista, the Serbian ethnic party, has close ties with Serbia which does not recognise Kosovo’s independence which was declared in 2008 and is backed by key Western powers. After being refused the right to run for Parliamentary seats by the electoral commission, Srpska Lista was finally on 25 December granted the right to compete by an appeals body.

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