Here’s what we know now about election polling in 2024
In the 2016 presidential election, pollsters predicted that Hillary Clinton would win. Here’s what we know now about election polling in 2024.
The Democratic National Convention in Chicago is now in full swing, but that’s not all that’s happening this week. Three states — Alaska, Florida and Wyoming — are holding their state primaries today, with voters poised to choose which candidates for national, statewide and local offices will advance to the general election.
Here are the races to watch for in the Aug. 20 state primaries.
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Alaska
The last frontier’s single seat in the U.S. House of Representatives is up for grabs during the state primary, with incumbent Rep. Mary Peltola, the first Alaska Native person ever elected to Congress, defending her seat from nearly a dozen challengers.
Peltola was first elected in a special election to fill Republican Congressman Don Young’s at-large seat after he died in March 2022. She beat out several rivals, including former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who received an endorsement from former President Donald Trump.
The most prominent Republicans running for the seat this year are Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom and business owner Nicholas Begich. There are also several independent candidates running for the seat.
Thanks to a 2020 ballot measure, Alaska holds a nonpartisan primary election, meaning all candidates appear on the same ballot regardless of party affiliation, and the four candidates with the most votes will advance to the general election.
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The state also employs ranked-choice voting, meaning that if no candidate receives a majority of votes, the candidate with the fewest first-place votes is eliminated along with their first-preference votes. The counting then restarts and moves the second-preference votes to the first-preference, and this process repeats until one candidate secures a majority.
More: What is ranked-choice voting? Here’s which states will use it in the 2024 election.
Florida
The Sunshine State has several high-profile races coming up, with local and national implications for residents across Florida. Incumbent Republican Rick Scott is defending his Senate seat this year from two challengers within his own party: John Columbus, an actor, and attorney Keith Gross, who was kicked off the 2008 ballot in Georgia after a judge determined he was not eligible to represent the Atlanta-area state legislative seat for which he was running.
More: ‘Unstoppable’: Sen. Rick Scott discuss bid for Republican conference leader, Donald Trump
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Former U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is the Democratic frontrunner for the Senate seat. She was elected in 2018 and served one term in the House of Representatives as the first Ecuadorian American and South American-born woman elected to Congress. She faces business owners Stanley Campbell, Rod Joseph, and former state legislator Brian Rush in the Democratic primary.
One of former President Trump’s most outspoken allies is also fighting to keep his seat in the House of Representatives. Rep. Matt Gaetz, who introduced and passed a measure to oust former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, is running for his fifth term to represent Florida’s 1st Congressional District. He will face off against Republican challenger Aaron Dimmock, whose campaign has been backed by McCarthy and his political network. Whoever wins the Republican primary will face off against Democrat Jennifer Valimont, who is running unopposed in her party primary.
In Florida’s 8th Congressional District, the only House race in the state without an incumbent candidate, outgoing Republican Rep. Bill Posey endorsed Mike Haridopolos, the former president of the Florida state Senate. Haridopolos will face business owner John Hearton in the Republican primary. Attorney Sandy Kennedy and business owner Daniel McDow will be facing off in the Democratic primary election.
Wyoming
Voters in the Cowboy State will decide the political future of deep-red Wyoming and its increasingly split Republican party on Tuesday, with all of the state’s house seats and half of its senate seats up for grabs. Two camps within Wyoming’s Republican party, the further-right Freedom Caucus and the more moderate, establishment Wyoming Caucus will fight for control of the state legislature.
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In the state’s capital, Cheyenne, and its surrounding districts hold several of the state’s hottest races.
State Rep. Dan Zwonitzer, with nearly two decades of experience under his belt, is hoping to fend off a spirited challenge from political newcomer and Freedom Caucus-endorsed Ann Lucas in House District 43. Nearby in House District 7, Kathy Russell, the Wyoming GOP executive director, will try to topple the more moderate representative Bob Nicholas. Senate District 6, just north of Cheyenne, features a heated, six-way race for control of outgoing senator Anthony Bouchard’s seat.
In a district race located at the foot of the Big Horn mountains in northern Wyoming, state representatives Barry Crago and Mark Jennings will square off against each other for a state senate seat. Crago is a rising star in the Wyoming Caucus-aligned camp, while Jennings has long been a further-right figure in Wyoming politics, helping found the State Freedom Caucus in 2015, a precursor to the Wyoming Freedom Caucus.
Out in Western Wyoming, current Speaker of the House Albert Sommers is looking to take control of the vacancy in Senate District 14. Sommers faces further challenges from retired Naval Officer Bill Winney and local rancher and school bus driver Laura Taliaferro Pearson.
On the federal level, Republican U.S. Senator John Barrasso and Representative Harriett Hageman face challengers, but both are expected to cruise to victory.
BILLINGS— Activists on both sides praised and criticized the Wyoming Supreme Court’s ruling of abortion bans as unconstitutional on Tuesday in a 4-1 majority.
The ruling marks the end of a four-year legal battle in Wyoming since the state’s 2022 abortion ban went in place with the U.S. Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, which overturned abortion rights on a federal level.
Watch for the report:
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Activists react after Wyoming high court rules abortion ban unconstitutional
The ban was put on hold after Wyoming’s only abortion clinic, Wellspring Health Access in Casper, led a suit against the state.
“I was holding my breath as I opened it and read it. But soon that turned to being rather elated. We couldn’t be more pleased with the opinion,” said Julie Burkhart, the clinic’s president.
Vanessa Willardson
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Julie Burkhart
The decision comes after a years-long fight and setbacks, including an arsonist who set the clinic on fire in May of 2022.
“We were set to open that next month, but unfortunately that arson set us back by 11 months. We weren’t able to open that until 2023. It was quite devastating,” said Burkhart.
“I don’t think it’s moral, ethical, appropriate for anyone to tell another person what they can or cannot do with their own body,” she added.
Wellspring Health Access
Wellspring Health Access after 2022 fire
For a Montana advocacy group, it was a different story.
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“I was very disappointed,” said Amy Seymour, president of Yellowstone Valley Christians for Life, an anti-abortion advocacy group.
“These pre-born children who are unique, complete, living, individual human beings from the moment of their conception, they can be protected if Wyoming decides to have a constitutional amendment to that degree,” she added.
Vanessa Willardson
Amy Seymour
Wyoming state Speaker of the House Chip Neiman, a Republican, echoed Seymour’s sentiments with a written statement.
“Today’s decision is an abomination. Four unelected justices thwarted the will of the people to establish a ‘right’ to kill an innocent baby. Thanks to these justices, Wyoming has some of the most radical abortion laws in America. I will not stand for that, and will continue fighting for innocent unborn babies,” said Neiman.
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Wyoming Supreme Court strikes down abortion bans, keeping procedure legal
GLENROCK, Wyo. — A 55-year-old Wyoming man died Monday night after his vehicle went over a bridge rail and caught fire on Interstate 25 near Glenrock.
Gavin Stanek was traveling north in a Cadillac Escalade around 9:13 p.m. when the vehicle drifted into the median near milepost 156, according to a Wyoming Highway Patrol report. The vehicle continued through the median until it struck a bridge retaining wall.
The driver’s side of the Escalade scraped along the rail before the vehicle went over the edge toward the river. The Cadillac rolled toward the passenger side and landed on its roof on the river embankment, where it was engulfed in flames, the report states.
The Wyoming Highway Patrol identified driver fatigue or the driver falling asleep as a possible contributing factor in the crash. Road conditions were dry and the weather was clear at the time of the incident.
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This story contains preliminary information as provided by the Wyoming Highway Patrol via the Wyoming Department of Transportation Fatal Crash Summary map. The agency advises that information may be subject to change.
As a plaintiff in the 2022 lawsuit that kicked off years of legal sparring over Wyoming abortion rights, Dr. Giovannina Anthony had waited a long time for Tuesday’s Supreme Court decision on the state’s abortion bans.
“It has been a long road,” she said. One with ups and downs, drawbacks and delays. And even though the high court ruled against the state’s abortion bans, she’s not under the illusion that the fight for abortion access is over.
“But at least today, we can claim a victory and say, it was really worth it,” said Anthony, a Jackson obstetrician. “It was worth it to go four years and keep it up and keep raising money and keep the awareness going. I’m really proud of our team. I’m really proud of what we accomplished.”
In reading the Supreme Court’s decision siding with plaintiffs, Anthony said, “Clearly, this is a court that holds a lot of respect for our constitution.”
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That’s because much of the decision hinged on constitutional language.
Anthony and other plaintiffs argued that abortion is enshrined in the “right of health care access” in Article 1, Section 38 of the Wyoming Constitution. The clause states, “Each competent adult shall have the right to make his or her own health care decisions.”
The state’s attorneys, meanwhile, countered that abortion isn’t health care.
But in deciding what that language means in this case, “all five Wyoming Supreme Court justices agreed that the decision whether to terminate or continue a pregnancy is a woman’s own health care decision protected by Article 1, Section 38,” the court’s summary stated.
As abortion rights activists in Wyoming and beyond celebrated the decision, the anti-abortion camp decried it and called for legislative action.
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“This ruling is profoundly unfortunate and sadly serves to only prolong the ultimate proper resolution of this issue,” Gov. Mark Gordon said in a statement. While the ruling may settle a legal question for the time being, Gordon said, “it does not settle the moral one, nor does it reflect where many Wyoming citizens stand, including myself.”
Anti-abortion activists in the silent March for Life in Cheyenne in January 2020. (Nadav Soroker, Wyoming Tribune Eagle/Wyoming News Exchange)
Gordon asked the Attorney General’s office to file a petition for rehearing the decision, which it will file within 15 days.
The voters of Wyoming should settle the matter once and for all, Gordon argued. “A constitutional amendment taken to the people of Wyoming would trump any and all judicial decisions.”
He called on the Legislature to pass such an amendment during the upcoming session and deliver it to his desk. A constitutional amendment requires a two-thirds vote in both the House and Senate to appear on the ballot in the following general election.
Gordon may get his wish during the Legislature’s 2026 budget session, which convenes Feb. 9.
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State lawmakers are already preparing a bill to modify the Wyoming Constitution and clear a path for another attempted abortion ban. Speaker of the House Chip Neiman, a Republican from Hulett, said that he’s been workshopping language with Torrington Republican Sen. Cheri Steinmetz.
“I’ve got to run it by a lot of other people,” Neiman said.
Reps. Rachel Rodriguez-Williams and Chip Neiman listen during a 2023 hearing on their request to defend Wyoming’s abortion ban. (Brad Boner/Jackson Hole News&Guide/Pool)
Ideally, he added, a single constitutional amendment would be considered, although the legislative strategy is still up for discussion.
“We’ve got a little over a month before we have to be in session,” Neiman said. “That’ll give us time to kind of see which is maybe the best plan of action.”
A constitutional amendment would have to navigate the legislative process in a 20-day session geared toward passing Wyoming’s budget. Then, in the 2026 general election, more than half of Wyoming voters who cast a ballot would have to agree to the constitutional change.
Neiman struck an optimistic tone about an amendment’s prospects of passing the first hurdle during the session in Cheyenne.
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“I can’t speak for the other chamber,” he said, “but in my chamber I’ve got a lot of phone calls and a lot of texts from a lot of my legislators who are just beside themselves at what happened.”
Senate President Bo Biteman did not return a phone call before this story published.
Victorious
Chelsea’s Fund, an organization that helps pay for abortion services, was another of the plaintiffs that challenged Wyoming’s abortion bans. Executive Director Janean Forsyth said Tuesday’s decision affirms what her organization has long known: “that abortion is essential health care, and Wyoming women have a constitutional right and the freedom to make their own health care decisions, and that should be without government interference.”
Forsyth was flooded with messages and calls Tuesday, she said, especially from the community of reproductive rights organizations.
“I think that [the news is] a beacon of hope for, not only Wyoming communities and families, but also nationwide,” she said.
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Christine Lichtenfels was Chelsea’s Fund executive director when the original suit was filed and throughout much of the legal battle. Relief wasn’t quite the word to describe how she felt Tuesday, she said.
“In reading the decision, there is just a sense that, ‘Oh, there is reason in the world,” she said. “It makes me think that, yes, Wyoming is the Equality State. We can say that now without cringing.”
(Disclosure: Lichtenfels is currently working with WyoFile on an unrelated legal matter.)
The Wellspring Health Access clinic in Casper is pictured in December 2022, and shows signs of May 2022 arson, including boarded up windows. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)
Wyoming’s only abortion clinic, Wellspring Health Access in Casper, was also a plaintiff in the lawsuit. Knowing the decision would directly impact the facility’s fate, Clinic President Julie Burkhart was nervous when she opened it. Reading quickly dispelled her fears, she said, as it dawned on her that the justices sided with the plaintiffs’ legal team.
“We are delighted,” she told WyoFile.
Many people questioned her 2021 decision to open an abortion clinic in such a conservative state, she said. The court decision solidifies an intuition she felt back then about Wyoming residents’ sense of what’s fair and right.
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Burkhart and colleagues expect future challenges to arise, however.
“While we celebrate today’s ruling, we know that anti-abortion politicians will continue their push to restrict access to health care in Wyoming with new, harmful proposals in the state legislature,” Burkart said in a statement. “Patients should not have to live in fear that their health care decisions will be suddenly upended at the whim of a judge or lawmaker.”
Across the state in Jackson, Dr. Anthony anticipates the Wyoming Freedom Caucus will attempt to pass laws that impose targeted restrictions against abortion providers — such as forcing patients to hear a fetal heartbeat or wait a certain time period before the procedure.
“Unfortunately, the fight’s not over,” Anthony said, “but this is a great moment for us.”
Heartache
Abortion opponents expressed sadness Tuesday and vehemently disagreed with the court’s opinion.
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State Rep. Rachel Rodriguez Williams was lead sponsor of one of the abortion bans. The Cody Republican and chair of the Wyoming Freedom Caucus did not respond to a request for comment, but posted about the decision on X.
“My heart aches for Wyoming today,” Rodriguez Williams posted. “Thanks to the decision of four unelected, unchecked attorneys, it’s open season in Wyoming for innocent, preborn babies. Make no mistake: courts can get things wrong, and they sure did get this wrong. I’ll never stop fighting to protect life.”
Anti-abortion billboards can be seen along some Wyoming highways. (Tennessee Watson/WyoFile)
Wyoming Secretary of State Chuck Gray also protested the decision, which he called “outrageously wrong” and “a leftwing activist decision totally out of touch with the Wyoming Constitution.”
Natrona County anti-abortion activist Bob Brechtel, a former Wyoming House member, also expressed frustration with the courts, criticizing the nearly two-year-long wait for a decision and saying he was “ashamed” of the outcome from the high court.
In 2011, Brechtel co-sponsored the bill authorizing a later-successful constitutional amendment ballot measure that now protects individuals’ rights to make their own health care decisions. Born out of opposition to the Obama-era Affordable Care Act, what became Article 1, Section 38 caused some lawmakers to worry about potential unintended consequences.
Fifteen years later, one unintended consequence came to fruition. Reached Tuesday, Brechtel confirmed that he did not intend to protect women’s right to have an abortion in Wyoming.
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“There was nothing in the legislation about killing innocent human beings,” he said. “This whole thing has been completely regenerated into something that it was never intended to be.”