Here’s what we know now about election polling in 2024
In the 2016 presidential election, pollsters predicted that Hillary Clinton would win. Here’s what we know now about election polling in 2024.
The Democratic National Convention in Chicago is now in full swing, but that’s not all that’s happening this week. Three states — Alaska, Florida and Wyoming — are holding their state primaries today, with voters poised to choose which candidates for national, statewide and local offices will advance to the general election.
Here are the races to watch for in the Aug. 20 state primaries.
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Alaska
The last frontier’s single seat in the U.S. House of Representatives is up for grabs during the state primary, with incumbent Rep. Mary Peltola, the first Alaska Native person ever elected to Congress, defending her seat from nearly a dozen challengers.
Peltola was first elected in a special election to fill Republican Congressman Don Young’s at-large seat after he died in March 2022. She beat out several rivals, including former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who received an endorsement from former President Donald Trump.
The most prominent Republicans running for the seat this year are Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom and business owner Nicholas Begich. There are also several independent candidates running for the seat.
Thanks to a 2020 ballot measure, Alaska holds a nonpartisan primary election, meaning all candidates appear on the same ballot regardless of party affiliation, and the four candidates with the most votes will advance to the general election.
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The state also employs ranked-choice voting, meaning that if no candidate receives a majority of votes, the candidate with the fewest first-place votes is eliminated along with their first-preference votes. The counting then restarts and moves the second-preference votes to the first-preference, and this process repeats until one candidate secures a majority.
More: What is ranked-choice voting? Here’s which states will use it in the 2024 election.
Florida
The Sunshine State has several high-profile races coming up, with local and national implications for residents across Florida. Incumbent Republican Rick Scott is defending his Senate seat this year from two challengers within his own party: John Columbus, an actor, and attorney Keith Gross, who was kicked off the 2008 ballot in Georgia after a judge determined he was not eligible to represent the Atlanta-area state legislative seat for which he was running.
More: ‘Unstoppable’: Sen. Rick Scott discuss bid for Republican conference leader, Donald Trump
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Former U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is the Democratic frontrunner for the Senate seat. She was elected in 2018 and served one term in the House of Representatives as the first Ecuadorian American and South American-born woman elected to Congress. She faces business owners Stanley Campbell, Rod Joseph, and former state legislator Brian Rush in the Democratic primary.
One of former President Trump’s most outspoken allies is also fighting to keep his seat in the House of Representatives. Rep. Matt Gaetz, who introduced and passed a measure to oust former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, is running for his fifth term to represent Florida’s 1st Congressional District. He will face off against Republican challenger Aaron Dimmock, whose campaign has been backed by McCarthy and his political network. Whoever wins the Republican primary will face off against Democrat Jennifer Valimont, who is running unopposed in her party primary.
In Florida’s 8th Congressional District, the only House race in the state without an incumbent candidate, outgoing Republican Rep. Bill Posey endorsed Mike Haridopolos, the former president of the Florida state Senate. Haridopolos will face business owner John Hearton in the Republican primary. Attorney Sandy Kennedy and business owner Daniel McDow will be facing off in the Democratic primary election.
Wyoming
Voters in the Cowboy State will decide the political future of deep-red Wyoming and its increasingly split Republican party on Tuesday, with all of the state’s house seats and half of its senate seats up for grabs. Two camps within Wyoming’s Republican party, the further-right Freedom Caucus and the more moderate, establishment Wyoming Caucus will fight for control of the state legislature.
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In the state’s capital, Cheyenne, and its surrounding districts hold several of the state’s hottest races.
State Rep. Dan Zwonitzer, with nearly two decades of experience under his belt, is hoping to fend off a spirited challenge from political newcomer and Freedom Caucus-endorsed Ann Lucas in House District 43. Nearby in House District 7, Kathy Russell, the Wyoming GOP executive director, will try to topple the more moderate representative Bob Nicholas. Senate District 6, just north of Cheyenne, features a heated, six-way race for control of outgoing senator Anthony Bouchard’s seat.
In a district race located at the foot of the Big Horn mountains in northern Wyoming, state representatives Barry Crago and Mark Jennings will square off against each other for a state senate seat. Crago is a rising star in the Wyoming Caucus-aligned camp, while Jennings has long been a further-right figure in Wyoming politics, helping found the State Freedom Caucus in 2015, a precursor to the Wyoming Freedom Caucus.
Out in Western Wyoming, current Speaker of the House Albert Sommers is looking to take control of the vacancy in Senate District 14. Sommers faces further challenges from retired Naval Officer Bill Winney and local rancher and school bus driver Laura Taliaferro Pearson.
On the federal level, Republican U.S. Senator John Barrasso and Representative Harriett Hageman face challengers, but both are expected to cruise to victory.
The biggest wind gust in Colorado history blew through Monarch Pass on Feb. 16, 2018, at 148 mph. Not long after that, I moved here, in part to avoid the hurricanes that were pummeling me back East. Now I experience Hurricane Sandy-adjacent conditions while taking mail from my mailbox on random Tuesdays in Fort Collins.
I liked to think that our National Weather Service would at least give me fair warning for wind events. But now the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder is being dismantled for parts.
(Peter Moore, Special to The Colorado Sun)
That very building got smacked with a 113-mph gust on Dec. 19, two days after Peak 6 at Brekenfridge was hit with a Polar Express clocked at 124 mph. If there had been any snow, I might have been skiing there, caught air off a mogul and landed at Arapahoe Basin.
(Peter Moore, Special to The Colorado Sun)
Little known fact: Colorado’s breezes are actually under the control of the four Greek gods of wind, plus their local representatives. No wonder it’s so breezy here!
(Peter Moore, Special to The Colorado Sun)
Fortunately, electric company officials employ a four-part strategy when dangerous winds threaten.
(Peter Moore, Special to The Colorado Sun)
Style-conscious Coloradans are learning to cope. (Peter Moore, Special to The Colorado Sun)
No one is beyond the reach of wind. Especially not Denver Broncos field-goal kicker Wil Lutz.
(Peter Moore, Special to The Colorado Sun)
As concerning as our wind situation is, there is one consolation.
(Peter Moore, Special to The Colorado Sun)
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Peter Moore is an editor, writer, illustrator, ghostwriter, co-author, radio host, TV guest, speaker, editorial consultant, and journalism lecturer.
In his most recent gig he was interim editor-in-chief of BACKPACKER magazine. Peter…
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On December 17 and 18, the wind gusts in some areas of Wyoming were recorded blowing over 100 miles per hour. In Sheridan County, they did not get that strong, but they were in 60 mile per hour range.
Wyoming is no stranger to wind, in fact, according to several internet sites, the state with the most wind is Alaska, followed closely by Wyoming.
In this history column we will look at some winter winds, which caused damage and in one case, even a death.
This in The Sheridan Post, December 31, 1912 – Gale Breaks All Records; Reaches Maximum Of 60 Miles Per Hour; Buildings Burned Barns Destroyed —Sheridan Escapes by Merest Good Fortune — Rocks Buildings, Whirls Dust —Breakingall weather bureau records for wind velocity, a 60-mile gale early yesterday morning kept city and county on the qui vive for four hours and wreaked havoc throughout the Sheridan country. Among the losses reported as a result of the gale are the following:
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Wallop ranch, Big Horn, ice house, laundry and hay stacks destroyed by fire. Estimated loss, $3,000.
William Moncreiffe ranch. Big Horn—Four hay stacks burned, loss several hundred dollars.
Burgess lumber sheds at Big Horn blown down; other small buildings blown down or un-roofed. Fences blown over.
Tom Masters ranch, Tongue River, barn wrecked by wind; frame structure, total loss.
Pass creek ranchers are reported to have suffered heavily, many out buildings and haystacks being blown over. A barn on the E.N. Secore ranch, Big Goose, in reported to have been wrecked by the wind.
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At the Wallop ranch the fact that the wind was from the south was all that saved the residence from destruction. The big barn was saved only through the heroic work of neighbors. The entire countryside turned out to assist in subduing the flames. In one instance, burning brands were carried a distance of a mile across the fields to the William Moncreiffe ranch, setting fire to hay stacks. The fire is supposed to have originated in the Wallop laundry, although flames were observed in the laundry building and a nearby haystack almost simultaneously. A corner of the barn caught fire and the big building would have gone with other structures but for the promptness with which neighbors hastened to the rescue.
The wind swept down Little Goose Canyon and out across the flats with terrific velocity. Malcolm Moncreiffe, who was in the city yesterday, declares that while at its maximum the gale must have blown at fully 75 miles an hour.
Weather Observer Prise is authority for the statement that the maximum reached in Sheridan was 60 miles an hour, and that only for two or three-minute periods. The greatest sustained velocity, for a five minute or longer period, was recorded at 2:45, when the wind attained a maximum of 56 miles per hour for four and a half hours, from then until after 6 o’clock, the gale averaged from 46 to 56 miles per hour, according to weather bureau records. At 6 o’clock it was blowing 50 miles and while calming down after daylight continued all day with more or less severity. While the storm was at its height clouds of dust filled the air, entering upon windows and doors and leaving a trail of work and profanity in its wake.
Residents of the city immediately expected to hear the fire alarm, but fortunately for residence and business district not a fire was reported. Mayor Kutcher was one of those who lay awake waiting for the gong.
Many chimneys belched red, and the fact that the conflagration did not ensue is due to the merest luck. A small blaze on Fifth street was caught before it spread.
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Shortly after 2 o’clock all the lights in the city went out and remained off for more that an hour. Trouble at the Tongue River plant is given as the cause. According to the wind gauge at the weather bureau the gale blew from the west and northwest until daylight when it veered around to the northwest, it reached its maximum while blowing directly from the west. Building were rocked on their foundations and in some cases were vacated by their occupants for fear of collapse. A 64-mile an hour gale was recorded in May of 1919. In January and November of 1811, tbe wind attained a velocity of 50 miles an hour. in December 1907, a 60 miles per hour wind blew in.
As we saw in the above story, during times of high winds, power is often disrupted. In the recent December windstorm, many residents in the Sheridan, Johnson and Campbell County areas were without power for a time. Anything with high lines, such electricity can be affected by the winds.
This from the Laramie Daily Boomerang, Monday, March 22,1920 – High Winds Cause Delay In Telegraph Service – Crossed wires between here and Cheyenne resulted in some inconvenience today and the telephone and telegraph service of both cities have suffered from delay. Crews of men have been working along the line repairing the damage and by late in the afternoon the service was again working on schedule. High winds caused considerable trouble along the line though no great damage to property has been reported.
Although today, most land line telephone lines are underground, and unless a tower blows down cell phone is little affected, but loss of power can create problems with the home internet and wi-fi, as the modems are powered by electricity.
This past year, there have been many instances of semi trucks being blown over the winds. There are numerous postings on Wyoming Department of Transportation website about the interstates being closed for high profile vehicles under 20000 pounds due to the blow over risk. Even train cars can be at risk, and create a risk.
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This from The Sheridan Daily Enterprise, January 9, 1911 –Cheyenne, Wyo., Jan. 9. — Much damage and many accidents have resulted today from one of the worst windstorms that has ever blown over the city. George Garner, foreman of the water service of the Colorado and Southern Railroad, was struck by a boxcar which had blown loose from its moorings and had his arm crushed to a pulp. Harry Long, a Union Pacific switch man, was thrown from the top of a boxcar when the roof was blown off, and his leg fractured.
Judge Clark was literally blown over on the pavement and sustained a broken nose. A number of wagons were blown over in the streets and two drivers were injured. No less than a dozen residences have been removed from their foundations and several glasses blown in F. J. Kihm, manager of a restaurant, lost a considerable sum of money in bills which were whisked from a bank book he was carrying on the way to make a deposit. Telephone wires are down and the service badly damaged.
When most people, especially rural folks, had fireplaces and wood and coal stoves, brick chimneys were often vulnerable in a windstorm.
The Laramie Republican, January 10, 1916 – Chimney Blown Over in a Windstorm – O. Herrlck of Mandel, the ranch man and chairman of the board of county commissioners, arrived from the ranch yesterday afternoon and is spending a few days with his family here. A severe wind storm raged in the Little Laramle valley Saturday, a chimney at the Herrick home having been blown over. There wasn’t a fire in the fireplace at the time and no further damage was done to the building. Mr. Herrlck knew of no other damage in that neighborhood from the wind.
Even deaths can be attributed to the winds.
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The Casper Daily Tribune, February 17, 1921 – Rancher Killed When Hay Wagon is Blown Over in Heavy gale.
Laramie, Wyoming – Feb. 11 – Charles Weisbach, a ranch worker, was instantly killed Wednesday when a load of hay which he was bringing to town was overturned by high wind on Twelve-mile hill, west of Laramie. He was crusted beneath the overturned hay rack and load.
For those folks who work outside, windchill can be dangerous as well, so it pays to bundle up with working in the winter winds.
So, for those of us living in Wyoming, wind is a part of life. We just hope that it doesn’t last for to long.
A security guard who was injured on Christmas Day by a patient at a Wyoming, Minn., emergency room has died, authorities said.
The guard, Andrea Merrell, 43, of North Branch, died as a result of injuries sustained during the Thursday incident at M Health Fairview Lakes Medical Center in Wyoming, according to a press release from Wyoming Police Chief Neil Bauer on Saturday.
A 35-year-old Chisago City man is being held at the Chisago County Jail in connection with the death, Bauer said.
Police gave the following details about the incident:
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At 5:23 p.m. Thursday, the Wyoming Police Department was called to the medical center on reports that a 35-year-old man had assaulted a security guard at the hospital and had run away from the emergency department after being placed on a hold.
Officers found the man in the parking lot, where he was allegedly non-compliant and physically resisted the officers for a prolonged time before he was taken into custody.
The security guard was taken to Regions Hospital in St. Paul for treatment and later died, police said Saturday.
“It is with deep sadness that we confirm the hospital security guard involved in the incident, Andrea Merrell, age 43, of North Branch, Minnesota, has passed away as a result of injuries sustained during the incident,” Bauer said in his statement. “The Wyoming Police Department extends its sincere condolences to Andrea Merrell’s family, loved ones, and colleagues, as well as to the staff of M Health Fairview Lakes Medical Center during this extremely difficult time. Our thoughts are with all those affected by this tragic loss.”