Washington
Beijing Calls Washington’s Bluff on Strategic Metals
January 2, 2025
China’s latest export restriction lays bare the complex geopolitics behind President Trump’s proposed tariffs—and the green energy transition.
Earlier this December, the Chinese government announced that it would curb the export of several key industrial minerals, as well as certain types of graphite. The move came in the context of mounting pressure on China from Washington, and in anticipation of stringent tariffs that Donald J. Trump has promised to levy when he returns to the presidency next year.
Chinese government spokespeople have argued that curbing export of these minerals is in line with their government’s antiproliferation efforts. They have said that the materials are “dual use,” and that they might be used in manufacturing weapons. Officials in the United States have historically also argued the same thing about some of the minerals, such as graphite, which the US put under strict export controls in 2006.
Among the minerals are antimony (which is used in night-vision goggles and bullets), gallium (precision-guided weapons and radar systems), and germanium (powerful sensors that are mounted on tanks, ships and helicopters). Superhard metals like tungsten may also be included in the restrictions, as is graphite, a type of carbon familiar from its use in pencils. Certain types of graphite are used in gun barrels, and others are dispersed on the battlefield as a sort of smoke that confuses electromagnetic wave detection devices.
Most of these materials also have considerable civilian uses. For instance, graphite is used in the anodes, or negative electrodes, of almost all lithium-ion batteries. (If you’re reading this article on a battery-powered device, you’re probably using graphite in some form.) What export controls mean is that non-Chinese companies that use the material in products destined for the United States will have to apply for export licenses. Such licenses will be up to Chinese officials to grant or withhold.
China controls the vast majority of the processing of some of these materials—a fact that began to register widely in Washington only as tensions began to ramp up with China during the previous Trump administration. China, for instance, produces 61 percent of natural graphite and 98 percent of the world’s final processed graphite. Graphite is also a key material in the green energy transition and electric vehicles: Last year, some 50 percent of the world’s natural graphite went into electric vehicles.
Beijing has managed to extend its grip across the supply chain in recent years. Efforts have been made—most notably through Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act—to create a supply chain for critical minerals that is independent of China, as well as the development of new technology that reduces the need for hard-to-get materials. But progress has been slow. “China is still set to be the dominant player,” said Tony Alderson, the senior anode and cathode analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a specialist provider of supply chain and energy transition information. “I think the investment that they are putting in is huge, and it is more than the US with regard to the anode supply chain.” Despite paeans to progress from politicians in Europe and the US, 2024, he said, was “the year of delays,” and a widening gap between supply and demand for critical minerals in everywhere but China.
Current Issue
By banning the export of these minerals, the Chinese government is showing that it has leverage over critical parts of the supply chain for electronics. “We see it in the industry as a shot across the bow,” Michael R. Hollomon II, the commercial director at US Strategic Metals, a mining and processing firm focused on green transition materials, told me. He noted that the Chinese have enacted similar bans of critical minerals in the past, including a ban last year of specific gallium and germanium products. “The Chinese government have put their money where their mouth is.”
Markets have reacted to the news of the most recent reductions: The price of antimony surged 40 percent on news of China’s most recent export curbs. It was something that worried Gary Evans, the CEO of US Antimony Corporation, the only domestic processor of antimony. Evans, speaking on Fox Business, worried that high prices would cause businesses to be priced out of the market.
Hollomon said that the Biden administration had often talked about building a supply chain independent from China, but that promised projects were often not followed through on, and that funding was held up at critical stages. China, on the other hand, has been able to fund projects and drive down costs for Chinese firms through massive injections of state capital into the mining, processing and industrial use of critical metals and transition technology. “We’ve been playing with our hands tied behind our backs—that is the way the West has been operating for the last 15 years,” he said.
But there is a more fundamental question at play as well. The United States traditionally limited technology transfers to China because of copyright concerns: This year, President Biden imposed an 100 percent tariff on Chinese electric vehicles. The US government recently prepared restrictions on the import of AI technology into China (Beijing responded with an antitrust investigation into the US chip giant Nvidia), and Washington has been talking about “decoupling” from China for the last several years. In 2022, the US Department of Defense even released a 74-page report on “securing” the supply chain for materials used in military hardware. Chinese graphite is already subject to a 25 percent tariff in the US. (Last Wednesday, a North American trade association of active anode material producers asserted that such a tariff was “far too low” and asked the US government to levy a 920 percent tariff on Chinese graphite imports, a move that would double the cost of an electric vehicle Stateside.) Why would China help the United States build a supply chain that subverts its own interests and diminishes market share for Chinese companies?
In the critical metals and renewable energy space, there is growing apprehension over the use of tariffs in a part of the world economy in which China has become king. “To me,” Trump has said, “the most beautiful word in the dictionary is ‘tariff.’” He has even suggested he would impose tariffs of up to 60 percent on Chinese goods. But while Washington seems to think of tariffs as a one-way street, China’s most recent show of force shows that Beijing has considerable leverage, especially when it comes to materials that are used in electric devices and vehicles.
In the end of the day, costs from tariffs usually get passed on to the consumer. Trump, who used fears of inflation to galvanize his base during the last election, will be wary of policies that cause too many shifts in prices. Antimony, after all, is not just in bullets; it is used as a flame retardant in roofing across the US.
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Perhaps rising costs will mean the next administration will be more amenable to striking a deal with China’s premier, Xi Jinping, an autocratic leader Trump reportedly admires. Elon Musk’s ties to China—around a half of Teslas are produced there, and the country is said to be the world’s second-largest market for the electric cars—might also complicate things. But that won’t solve the pressing issue of China’s domination of the supply chain for critical raw materials.
Industry players like Hollomon believe the incoming administration has the chance to spur domestic mining and processing through grants and streamlining regulations and building up the nation’s strategic reserve of minerals, many of which were sold off after the Cold War. But the outlook is also worrisome: increased tariffs have historically lead to retrenchment and stockpiling, which have tended to be ingredients in conflict. Even if such fears remain distant for now, a China in which the materials processing and battery industries are two bright spots in an otherwise bleak economic landscape is not likely to cede its primacy in those spaces any time soon.
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Charging documents reveal the U.S. Park Police officer who was shot Monday in Southeast D.C. had arrested one of the suspects the day before and was following that suspect at the time.
The suspects are brothers, 22-year-old Asheile Foster and 21-year-old Darren Foster, of Southeast. They appeared in federal court Wednesday afternoon.
Court documents state the Park Police officer who was shot had arrested Asheile Foster on Sunday on suspicion of dealing drugs. The officer said he followed Foster after he was released from jail on Monday and came to Park Police headquarters to get his personal belongings.
According to prosecutors, Foster told police he knew he was being followed by a white Tesla, and he confronted the officer on Queens Stroll Place SE, jumping out in front of the Tesla before the officer swerved around him.
Then, dozens of gunshots went off, the officer told police. He said in charging documents he was shot in the shoulder as he kept driving several blocks to the intersection of Benning Road and Southern Avenue SE, where police found him. A helicopter then took him to a hospital. According to charging documents, the officer was treated and released the same night as the shooting.
A U.S. Park Police officer who was shot in Southeast D.C. on Monday is recovering from what authorities say was likely a targeted attack. Multiple law enforcement sources tell News4’s Mark Segraves that when the officer was shot, he was investigating a shooting that occurred in Anacostia Park on Friday.
Photos in the charging documents show the brothers firing at the officer’s Tesla, according to prosecutors.
The shooting drew a massive police presence to the Southeast neighborhood near the D.C-Maryland border Monday night.
Shell casings littered the middle of the street. Police said they recovered two weapons: a Glock 9 with an extended magazine and an AR-15.
Prosecutors said that when the officer was shot, he was investigating a shooting that occurred in Anacostia Park on Friday. No one was injured in that shooting.
Darren Foster was located and stopped shortly after the shooting, D.C. police said. Asheile Foster was found on Tuesday.
The brothers were charged with assault on a federal officer, assault with intent to kill and weapons charges. They could face up to 60 years in prison if they’re convicted.
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Washington just became the latest state to regulate artificial intelligence.
Under a pair of bills signed by Gov. Bob Ferguson Tuesday, companies like OpenAI and Anthropic will have to include new disclosures in their popular chatbots for Washington users.
Ferguson asked legislators to craft House Bill 1170 to crack down on AI-generated misinformation. When content is substantially modified using generative AI, that information will now have to be traceable using watermarks or metadata. The new law applies to large AI companies more than 1 million monthly subscribers.
“ I’m confident I’m not the only Washingtonian who often sees something on my phone and wondering to myself, ‘Is that AI or is it real?’ And I feel like I’m a reasonably discerning person,” Ferguson said during the bill signing. “It is virtually impossible these days.”
RELATED: WA Gov. Bob Ferguson calls for regulations on AI chatbot companions
House Bill 2225 establishes new guard rails for AI chatbots that act like friends or companions. It applies to services like ChatGPT and Claude, but excludes more narrowly tailored chatbots, like the customer service windows that pop up when visiting a corporate website.
Chatbots that fit the bill will have to disclose to users that they are not human at the start of every conversation, and every three hours in an ongoing chat. The tools will also be barred from pretending to be human in conversation with users.
The rules go further if the user is a minor. Companies that operate chatbots will have to disclose that the tools are not human every hour, rather than every three hours, if the user is under 18. The bill forbids AI companions from having sexually explicit conversations with underage users. It also bans “manipulative engagement techniques.” For example, a chatbot is not allowed to guilt or pressure a minor into staying in a conversation or keeping information from parents.
“AI has incredible potential to transform society,” Ferguson said. “At the same time, of course, there are risks that we must mitigate as a state, especially to young people. So I speak partly as a governor, but also as the father of teenage twins who grapple with this as a lot of parents do every single day.”
Under the law, AI chatbots will not be allowed to encourage or provide information on suicide or self-harm, including eating disorders. The companies behind these tools will be required to come up with a protocol for flagging conversations that reference self-harm and connecting users with mental health services.
The regulations come in the wake of several high-profile instances of teenage suicide following prolonged interactions with AI companions that showed warning signs. Many more AI users of all ages have reported mental health issues and psychosis after heavy use of the technology.
Washington Wizards (16-55, 14th in the Eastern Conference) vs. Utah Jazz (21-51, 14th in the Western Conference)
Salt Lake City; Wednesday, 9 p.m. EDT
BOTTOM LINE: Washington heads into the matchup with Utah after losing 16 in a row.
The Jazz have gone 13-24 in home games. Utah ranks second in the Western Conference with 16.6 fast break points per game led by Lauri Markkanen averaging 3.3.
The Wizards are 5-29 in road games. Washington is 9-10 when it has fewer turnovers than its opponents and averages 15.3 turnovers per game.
The Jazz score 117.4 points per game, 6.7 fewer points than the 124.1 the Wizards give up. The Wizards’ 46.1% shooting percentage from the field this season is 2.9 percentage points lower than the Jazz have allowed to their opponents (49.0%).
The teams square off for the second time this season. The Jazz won the last meeting 122-112 on March 6, with Ace Bailey scoring 32 points in the victory.
TOP PERFORMERS: Kyle Filipowski is averaging 10.5 points and 6.9 rebounds for the Jazz. Brice Sensabaugh is averaging 19.9 points over the last 10 games.
Alex Sarr is averaging 16.5 points, 7.4 rebounds and two blocks for the Wizards. Will Riley is averaging 14.4 points over the past 10 games.
LAST 10 GAMES: Jazz: 3-7, averaging 116.4 points, 43.3 rebounds, 27.7 assists, 9.9 steals and 4.4 blocks per game while shooting 45.9% from the field. Their opponents have averaged 122.7 points per game.
Wizards: 0-10, averaging 114.3 points, 37.4 rebounds, 24.5 assists, 6.9 steals and 4.5 blocks per game while shooting 47.1% from the field. Their opponents have averaged 130.6 points.
INJURIES: Jazz: Lauri Markkanen: out (hip), Isaiah Collier: out (hamstring), Keyonte George: out (leg), Cody Williams: out (shoulder), Walker Kessler: out for season (shoulder), Jusuf Nurkic: out for season (nose), Jaren Jackson Jr.: out for season (knee).
Wizards: Anthony Davis: out (finger), Tristan Vukcevic: day to day (back), Cam Whitmore: out for season (shoulder), Alex Sarr: day to day (toe), Tre Johnson: day to day (foot), Kyshawn George: out (elbow), D’Angelo Russell: out (not injury related), Trae Young: out (quad).
___
The Associated Press created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.
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