Seattle, WA
Seahawks analysis and takeaways from Aaron Schatz’s 2023 Football Almanac
Aaron Schatz and company just released the 2023 edition of the FTN Football Almanac. Once upon a time this was the Football Outsiders Almanac, but if you’ve kept up with the news you may notice Football Outsiders is pretty much toast these days, and Schatz (among others) is no longer with FO. A sad demise for a great publication.
The almanac nevertheless lives on, complete with the advanced analytics we’ve grown accustomed to using on this site for eons. Having read the Seattle Seahawks chapter (plus supplemental material), I’ve summarized some key points on either side of the ball that may answer some questions/confirm some suspicions about the 2022 team.
Offense
Geno Smith’s play did drop off as the season progressed
Even including what was essentially a shutout loss against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 2, Smith was on fire through the first five games of the season. His Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) was a staggering 33.9%, his Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE) was 9.1%, and his sack rate was just 5.3%. Two magnificent performances against the New Orleans Saints and Detroit Lions were major reasons the stats were that impressive.
Then Week 6 against the Arizona Cardinals happened and things started to taper off to a more modest -1.6% DVOA, a 2.6% CPOE, and an 8.1% sack rate. This doesn’t mean it’s all on Geno—consider the rookie tackles Charles Cross and Abe Lucas, as well as injuries to Rashaad Penny and Marquise Goodwin—but anyone who believes we should still be cautious about Smith entering 2023 has some ground to stand on. Smith’s overall season still produced the 9th-best Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) and 12th in DVOA among all QBs, so in totality it was still a successful season, but year-long consistency (of the good kind) will be sought entering 2023.
Oh yes, and both Smith and Russell Wilson were right next to each other in terms of most QB hits absorbed. Wilson had 74 hits to Smith’s 71, but Wilson also missed two games so he would’ve likely surpassed Justin Herbert (75) in that stat with a full 17-game season.
Damien Lewis was the best offensive line performer
After beginning his career at right guard, Lewis moved to left guard in 2021 and then had a really impressive 2022 season. He had the lowest pressure rate out of all Seattle starting linemen (2.2%), and 13 allowed overall.
Austin Blythe’s pressure rate of 3.2% ranked 32nd among 35 centers, which I’m pretty sure is #bad. Here’s to Evan Brown finally being the solution at this position.
Charles Cross had the highest pressure rate at 5.1%, but we should acknowledge that him and Lucas (4.7%) were often left 1-on-1 without any help against elite pass rushers like Nick Bosa and Maxx Crosby.
DK Metcalf’s slot snaps increased
It’s been covered on this site before that Metcalf’s depth of target and yards per reception have dropped in each of the past three seasons, so we don’t need the almanac to confirm what basic counting stats already tell us. However, what was different about DK’s 2022 was his usage in the slot, which increase d from 30% in 2020 and 2021 to 37% last season. Jaxon Smith-Njigba will surely be the main slot option moving forward so DK can be positioned on the outside, where he does his greatest work. Metcalf’s yards after catch per reception was a brutal 2.3, 80th among all wideouts.
A weird road vs. home split
The Seahawks offense ranked 4th in DVOA in road games but just 24th at home. This is something that can vary wildly from year to year, but my theory on this is the fact that the Seahawks played five games in indoor settings where weather is not a factor: 2x SoFi Stadium, Ford Field, Mercedes-Benz SuperDome, and State Farm Stadium. Seattle’s offense scored at least 27 points in all of these games and Geno had five of his seven highest yards per pass attempt in indoor stadiums.
Seattle has four indoor games this year (Arizona, LA Rams, Dallas, Detroit) but the Cowboys boast an elite defense so that may put my theory of the Seahawks offense in indoor environments to the test.
Passin’ Pete Carroll, like I’ve always said
The Seahawks ranked 24th in rushing DVOA on 1st down plays, compared to 3rd when they threw the ball. Dammit, Pete! Why are you running the ball so much on first do——oh wait a minute, it says here the Seahawks ranked 28th in 1st down rushing rate (44%). In fact there’s absolutely zero to indicate they were anything other than a pass-first offense in 2022, running counter (heh heh) to the idea that Carroll would revert to a run-based offense with Russell Wilson out of the way.
Defense
The Seahawks were as bad as you thought they were on short passes
We already knew the Seahawks were brutal at defending yards after catch (31st), but they were also dead-last by DVOA in defending passes at or behind the line of scrimmage. This pretty much implies screen passes are a major part of that but not every throw at or behind the LOS is a screen. Semi- Seattle’s pass defense was near the bottom against TEs and Rbs.
Seattle’s defense with pressures vs. no pressures was glaring
Believe it or not, defenses fare better against offenses when they pressure the quarterback. Crazy, I know. In Seattle’s case, there was a giant gulf in performance when they got pressure versus when they didn’t.
DVOA with pressure: -88.4% (10th)
DVOA without pressure: 39.5% (24th)
DVOA pressure vs. no pressure difference: -127.9% (27th)
Now it’s worth nothing that the differential needs to be contextualized. The Philadelphia Eagles also had a huge gap in pressure vs. no pressure DVOA, but their DVOA with pressure was 2nd and DVOA with no pressure was 15th. The New Orleans Saints were 5th in DVOA with pressure and 2nd (!!) without pressure, but the percentage difference is -118.1% and ranks 24th. Then you have the Las Vegas Raiders, who had the smallest difference in DVOA percentages but they were 32nd in DVOA with pressure and 21st without pressure, aka they were bad both ways.
The Seahawks defense basically could not properly function without pressure. This year’s almanac encompasses sacks, hurries, and QB knockdowns as pressures, and we know from other metrics that the Seahawks got a lot of sacks but few total pressures, so you can figure out the rest from there.
Seattle also got ripped to shreds when they blitzed. The Seahawks allowed 7.9 yards per play on blitzes, and posted a league-worst DVOA of 46.6%.
Seattle played a lot more man coverage compared to 2021
In Ken Norton Jr’s final season as Seahawks defensive coordinator, the team only played man coverage 15% of the time, 32nd in the league. That rate skyrocketed to a sixth-highest 47% under Clint Hurtt. The Riq Woolen effect? Perhaps so.
The Seahawks defense’s best DVOA and yards allowed per play (excluding goal line packages) came in dime formation, and their dime usage just about doubled from 9% to 17%. Base personnel usage clocked in at just 26%, well down from 38% in the previous year, but it should be noted that league-wide based defense was just 24.8%, and nickel is the top personnel group.
Quarterbacks picked on Coby Bryant the most
While Riq Woolen and Mike Jackson Sr commanded the outside corner positions, Coby Bryant’s task as a rookie was to move inside to the slot. Despite playing 300+ fewer snaps than both Woolen and Jackson, Bryant was targeted 60 times for a team-high rate of 20.4%. Seattle ranked 2nd in DVOA against receivers lined up outside, compared to 12th in the slot.
Bryant also had the worst success rate among Seahawks cornerbacks at just 40% (compared to 46% on Jackson and 51% on Woolen), so while it’s understandable that there was a bit of a “throw him to the wolves” situation with someone who was an outside CB opposite Sauce Gardner in college, I think there’s a reason why Bryant risks losing snaps to Devon Witherspoon and potentially moving to safety.
(“Success Rate” Definition: The percentage plays of targeting this player on which the offense did not have a successful play. This means not only incomplete passes and interceptions, but also short completions which do not meet our baselines for success – 45% of needed yards on first down, 60% on second down, 100% on third or fourth down.)
Uchenna Nwosu was fantastic
Beyond Nwosu’s 9.5 sacks in his first season in Seattle, he had a team-high 46 charted pressures (18 more than Darrell Taylor) and his tackles on run plays averaged just 1.6 yards, good for 4th-best among defensive linemen/edge rushers.
Nwosu was credited with 57 stops, defined as “the total number of plays which prevent a ‘success’ by the offense.” He also played the most snaps by far among Seattle’s edge rushers, which is to say he really was the only consistently reliable player at the position for the Seahawks both against the run and pass.
If you have any more questions you can ask me in the comments section! I’ll probably have more articles based on the findings outside of the main points here. Alternatively you can buy the FTN Football Almanac yourself.
Seattle, WA
Immediate reactions to the Klint Kubiak hiring
The Seattle Seahawks snuck in their hiring of Klint Kubiak as offensive coordinator during the Championship Weekend games.
The former New Orleans Saints coordinator has twice now been victim of his head coach getting fired, resulting in finding a new home.
Despite the fact that Kubiak has never held the position for more than a full season, and despite the fact that we were all watching Saquon Barkley restore order to Pennsylvania, people still weighed in on the hiring.
And the reactions were highly positive.
Seahawks officially hire Klint Kubiak as their OC.
Probably the best option available if they were looking into Bobby Slowik.
Good hire.
— Sami ON Tap (@SamiOnTap) January 26, 2025
Never know until it actually happens, but all in on Kubiak. Now wishing the next Seahawks game were sooner than 7+ months https://t.co/uSbsZ3try7
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) January 27, 2025
Kubiak’s number 1 job is not resurrecting the run game, but play-action. Hopefully run improvement follows that though.
— over zone y (@cmikesspinmove) January 27, 2025
A wide range of voices chimed in over the weekend. The following is from a Denver radio host.
Need to see which coach will be new #Seahawks‘ offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak’s OL coach. And a run game coordinator?
A year on from making an ambitious hire in Ryan Grubb, Seattle goes a bit safer with the 37-yo Kubiak. Crazy Kubiak was a head coaching candidate last year..
— Under Zone X (Frisco)/Phoenix Check/Stick Slasher2 (@mattyfbrown) January 26, 2025
For any that had the time to check in on the first two games of the 2024 Alvin Kamara Saints, it does make one wonder about the future of Kenneth Walker.
If Klint Kubiak lands w/ the Seahawks as OC, Ken Walker will end up on nearly 100% of my 2025 Fantasy Teams
The Kubiak Zone Scheme has been a Running Back goldmine for decades. Wherever Klint lands = sneaky crucial to monitor
— Wolf of Roto Street (@RotoStreetWolf) January 17, 2025
Thanks, Gee!
Obviously not everyone agrees dissenting voices were issued as well. Not the least of which was just this past Wednesday, when Daniel Jeremiah indicated (as seen below) that Kubiak might not be the best fit for these current Seahawks.
Regardless, here we go. With somebody far more familiar with actual NFL offenses than Ryan Grubb. Seattle can now head to the draft, free agency, Senior Bowl, contract negotiations, and all important decisions-to-be-made with their offensive mind able to weigh in.
Seattle, WA
A New Art-Forward Hotel Is Opening In Seattle This Spring
A new art-centric hotel is making its way to downtown Seattle.
Hotel Westland, a boutique lifestyle hotel, will open in spring 2025 in the heart of the city’s RailSpur micro-district.
Located in the charming Pioneer Square neighborhood, RailSpur is a block of adaptive reuse historic buildings that has become a lively community and cultural hub in the Emerald City. Developed by real estate developers Urban Villages and managed by Aparium, Hotel Westland’s rich history will be at the forefront of the property’s design as the original 1907 structure will remain intact.
With architecture from Miller Hull and interiors designed by Curioso, the hotel’s color story will be reminiscent of the hues found throughout Pacific Northwest landscapes. Rich blues and greens adorn the 120 guestrooms and will mimic the tones of Washington’s wildlife-filled waters and lush greenery, while warm textile finishes, patinated metals, natural brick and exposed timber pay homage to the building’s original architectural expression.
Art is also at the center of the hotel, with a thriving art program spanning across the property’s vibrant lobby, and beyond. A robust collection of 328 Pacific Northwest-inspired works have been carefully curated by art production house ARTXIV to give guests a deeper look into Washington’s vibrance and charm. In summer 2024, the company debuted its art collection that is to be featured in the hotel with exhibitions at at RailSpur’s 419 Occidental Ave building and the Seattle Art Fair. 30 commissioned artists spent three months working on hundreds of original pieces that show just why Seattle is a known as a city for creatives.
“Pioneer Square has deep history and roots as a center for the arts and it’s been special to develop a space where artists can collaborate and be inspired by their surroundings, creating artwork for the hotel on site that reflects a sense of place,” Jon Buerge, President of Urban Villages, said. “This art production studio and resulting collection serve as an example of how developers and creatives can work together to cultivate the next vibrant community, and we’re excited to bring together the best of art, design, culinary, and hospitality at Hotel Westland.”
The hotel will feature Pioneer Square’s first-ever rooftop bar and restaurant, with jaw-dropping views of the Puget Sound and Seattle skyline.
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