The Chicago White Sox (31-41) and Seattle Mariners (34-35) play the finale of a 3-game set Sunday at T-Mobile Park. First pitch is at 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the White Sox vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
Chicago has traded 1-run outcomes with the Mariners over the last 2 nights. The White Sox took Saturday’s game 4-3 in 11 innings after falling 3-2 Friday night. The White Sox have just 2 wins in the last 7 games.
The M’s continue to hover around .500. They’re 5-5, 9-11 and 14-16 over the last 10, 20 and 30 games, respectively. They just have yet to hit that extra gear to keep them over the top. Seattle is 20-17 at home and 6-6 against the AL Central.
White Sox at Mariners projected starters
RHP Lance Lynn vs. RHP Bryce Miller
Lynn (4-7, 6.75 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.57 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 77 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 6 K Tuesday against the Los Angeles Dodgers
- Last 5 starts vs. Seattle: 2-1, 1.86 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 41 K in 29 IP
Miller (4-3, 4.06 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 0.93 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 44 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 3 BB, 6 K Monday against the Miami Marlins
- 2023 splits; 3-1, 3.57 ERA, 0.93 WHIP in 4 home starts; 1-2, 4.57 ERA, 0.93 WHIP in 4 road starts
White Sox at Mariners odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:39 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): White Sox +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Mariners -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): White Sox +1.5 (-165) | Mariners -1.5 (+130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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White Sox at Mariners picks and predictions
Prediction
White Sox 5, Mariners 4
Moneyline
Lynn seems to have fallen off a cliff at age 36. His velocity has fallen the last couple of years from averaging 94 on his fastball to 92.9 last year to 92.4 this year. His K-rate is still great. He’s just being hurt by a .338 BABIP, which is the highest of his career. The M’s are just 20th with 4.42 runs/9 and 26th with a .229 batting average. I’m willing to take a chance that Lynn figures it out. I’d much rather take WHITE SOX +125 than back a middling Mariners team at -150.
Run line/Against the spread
For a team that is 10 games under .500, the White Sox have done well on the RL at 37-35 and 21-17 on the road. The question is: Do you want to spend -165 for the White Sox to keep it within a run or just go for the gold on the ML?
I choose the ML, but WHITE SOX +1.5 (-165) is an option as well.
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Over/Under
This is a small number for a guy like Lynn that has allowed 4 ER in 3 straight starts. Miller had 2 starts of at least 7 ER before his last solid effort. Rain will be a factor as well as there’s a 68% chance for it on a 56-degree day. The wind is also blowing out to left-center at 8 mph.
The Over has cashed in Lynn’s last 5 starts with a total between 7.0-8.5. I’ll LEAN OVER 7.5 (-115) in what could be a sloppy game in the rain.
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