The clouds hanging over San Francisco since the pandemic appear to be finally lifting — leading to predictions of a real estate rebound.
Following years of emptying office buildings and vacated storefronts, Fog City is buzzing again, thanks to return-to-office mandates at Amazon, Google, Salesforce, and more. This is good news for the city’s apartment buildings — and now some professional investors are taking notice.
“San Francisco had become an unsavory city, but we believe we’re starting to see a real recovery and we think it’s a good time to buy,” said Tom Shapiro, the president and founder of GTIS, a New York City based real estate investment firm with $4.7 billion of assets under management.
Shapiro is predicting rents will grow between 4% and 6% this year and next. Property values, meanwhile, have declined 30% to 50% from their pre-pandemic highs, creating an attractive buying opportunity.
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Asking rents in San Francisco were about $3,500 a month in the first quarter of 2020 and fell 25% by the end of the year as a result of the dislocation caused by the pandemic, according to estimates from the residential brokerage firm Compass. Average rents are now about $3,200 a month, closing in on pre-pandemic levels, including a 6.4% year-over-year jump in the first quarter, the Compass data showed.
Shapiro is also seeing growing competition in the space, including a nearly $100 million apartment property in the city that he said he is vying with three other bidders to purchase.
“There’s more people interested,” Shapiro said. “It’s not a secret like it was a year ago.”
Tom Shapiro, president and founder of GTIS, a New York City based real estate investment firm
GTIS
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Dealmaking is back
About $363 million of individual multifamily real estate assets were sold in San Francisco in the first quarter of 2025, according to data from MSCI, triple the dollar volume during the same period last year and the year prior. MSCI’s analysis omitted large, multi-property deals, such as Brookfield’s acquisition of a portfolio of more than 70 apartments buildings in the city in early 2024, because they can artificially inflate the data.
Eli Edwards, the US head of real estate equity investments at Fortress Investment Group, said it has acquired 13 rental buildings in San Francisco in the past two years. The firm is currently under contract to acquire two more rental buildings in the city and has offers out for several more rental properties. Edwards said he is looking to double the number of apartments in the firm’s portfolio there this year.
Edwards, who lived in the city’s Russian Hill neighborhood until recently, urged Fortress to become an early investor in the city’s turnaround because he felt that negative perceptions were overblown and that much of the homelessness and disorder associated with the city were focused in only a handful of areas, including its Financial District and the Tenderloin, a nearby neighborhood.
Homeless encampments in the city’s Tenderloin in 2023
Anadolu/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
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Edwards said the firm has signed over 20 leases in the last year with rents “about 10% above” what the firm had expected to fetch when the units were vacated.
“The Fortress DNA is, find a situation where the perception of risk is higher than the actual risk,” Edwards said. “That was San Francisco.”
Philip Saglimbeni, a senior managing director at Institutional Property Advisors, a commercial real estate sales firm, said he and his team recently found a buyer for Presidio Landmark, a 161-unit luxury rental building controlled by Brookfield through a long-term ground lease. Saglimbeni said the buyer was offering “north of a hundred million” dollars for the property, which is located in the Presidio, a national park south of the Golden Gate Bridge.
He declined to disclose the purchaser’s identity, saying the agreement was still being finalized, but said it was an “investment advisory shop.”
A spokeswoman for Brookfield declined to comment.
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New inventory is scarce
The city’s anemic pipeline of new housing, which could raise rents even higher, adds to its appeal among investors, who believe the city’s scarcity of apartments will inflate rents.
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A report by the San Francisco Planning Department that was released in April stated that 1,597 units of new housing were added in the city in 2024, 56% below the yearly average over the last decade. 1,024 units were permitted for construction during the year, 67% below the 10-year annual average.
“It’s a massive imbalance and it will be perpetual,” Saglimbeni said, describing the discrepancy between the demand for housing and new supply in San Francisco. “That’s what investors see and that’s why they gravitate to regions like this.”
The city’s beleaguered office market has also begun to improve, offering another potential boost to the apartment market’s recovery by luring in more workers who may want to rent apartments.
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Office attendance in San Francisco recently reached about 43% of its pre-pandemic levels, according to employee swipe data from Kastle System, far above its record low of about 8% in 2020. 1.7 million square feet of space was leased in San Francisco during the first quarter, the most activity since 2019, according to data from the real estate services firm Cushman & Wakefield.
Early last year, Brookfield paid more than $600 million to acquire distressed loans tied to more than 2,000 apartments spread across more than 70 buildings in San Francisco and took ownership of the properties.
“When we made that investment, people weren’t going to the office, people weren’t going downtown,” said Mike Greene, a managing director at Brookfield who oversees its residential investments in the western US. “And that’s dramatically changed.”
Greene said that the 75 buildings in the portfolio now have a 95% occupancy rate, up from 67% when Brookfield took ownership.
Daylight saving time is here, and San Francisco residents have ample opportunities to take advantage of the extended sunlight.
Here are some of the top events to check out this week in The City.
San Francisco Camerata concert (Monday)
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The San Francisco chamber orchestra comes to St. Mark’s Lutheran Church at 1111 O’Farrell St. for a night featuring violinist Eric Silberger and other Bay Area musicians. They will play “Serenade for Strings” by Antonin Dvorak and Max Bruch’s Violin Concerto No. 1.
An evening with Marc Teicholz and Eric Zivian (Monday)
Guitarist Marc Teicholz perform preludes by Frederic Chopin and Sergio Assad with help from guitarist Eric Zivian.
Marta Lindsey chats with Nancy Botkin (Tuesday)
Local park experts and San Francisco residents Marta Lindsey and Nancy Botkin will stop by Bookshop’s West Portal location to chat about “Discovering Golden Gate Park: A Local’s Guide.” Written by the pair, the 210-page book gives readers recommendations on how to best spend their days at the urban attraction.
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Author Marta Lindsey’s 210-page book “Discovering Golden Gate Park: A Local’s Guide” features contributions from walking and biking tour designer Nancy Botkin.
Courtesy Marta Lindsey
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Cindy Cohn chats with Cory Doctorow (Tuesday)
Electronic Frontier Foundation Executive Director Cindy Cohn talks with journalist Cory Doctorow about the former’s new book, “Privacy’s Defender: My Thirty-Year Fight Against Digital Surveillance.” Releasing Tuesday, the book documents three legal privacy battles that Cohn helped oversee throughout her career.
The sold-out conversation will take place at City Lights Booksellers, and it will also be broadcast on Zoom. It starts at 7 p.m.
Ukrainian Games Festival (Tuesday-Wednesday)
This two-day pop-up will bring cultural dishes, a charity auction and photo opportunities celebrating Ukrainian heritage to the Consulate General of Ukraine. Attendees will also be able to try demonstrations of upcoming games made by Ukrainian developers, such as the stock market simulation-game “Stonks-9800” and the point-and-click puzzle adventure game “Tukoni.”
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‘Moving San Francisco Lunchtime Talks’ (Wednesday)
Held by the San Francisco Arts Commission on the second Wednesday of every month through June, this event brings Muni historians, operators, riders, artists and other artists for conversations exploring the different themes of “Moving San Francisco: Views from the SFMTA Photo Archive 1903-Now.” On display at City Hall, the exhibition chronicles more than 120 years of the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency’s history.
Guests will meet in the North Light Court of City Hall at noon, with this month’s edition centered on cable cars.
Free art workshop (Wednesday)
Yerba Buena Center for the Arts invites participants to explore lines, color and artworks’ compositions by painting miniature rocks. The workshop is inspired by “Double Horizon,” Sarah Sze’s public sculpture in the Yerba Buena Gardens.
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Yerba Buena Center for the Arts’ latest workship is inspired by “Double Horizon,” Sarah Sze’s public sculpture in the Yerba Buena Gardens.
Courtesy Yerba Buena Center for the Arts
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Participants can register online, and they will get to take their creations home. All materials will be provided for the session, which runs from 2 to 4 p.m.
‘Nintendo in Concert’ (Wednesday)
The Sixth Station Trio, a group of local San Francisco musicians, will perform musical scores from some of the Japanese game publisher’s famous franchises including “Animal Crossing,” “The Legend of Zelda” and “Super Smash Bros.” Held at Grace Cathedral, the pieces have been arranged for cello, piano and violin, with the performers sharing personal anecdotes about gaming in between songs.
‘Flourish: Art of Abundance’ (Thursday)
Root Division’s annual fundraiser will bring ready-to-buy artworks, panel discussions and other conversations to the arts organization’s Mission Street headquarters. An after party features music by DJ Umami, drinks by the Stud Bar and light bites from the Pawn Shop.
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“It’s so rare to have such a long-standing, unique partnership,” ballet director Tamara Rojo said. “It deserves to be celebrated”
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‘The MIX Indie Games Gallery’ (Thursday-Friday)
SFMOMA is teaming up with the Media Indie Exchange to turn the museum’s Gina and Stuart Peterson White Box into a pop-up featuring game developers who focus on innovative gameplay and diverse representation with their content. The event is free with museum admission.
SFMOMA’s pop-up games gallery is located inside the Gina and Stuart Peterson White Box on the museum’s fourth floor.
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Courtesy Myleen Hollero
SFMOMA’s pop-up is located on the museum’s fourth floor. It is open on Thursday from noon to 8 p.m. and Friday from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m.
Luther S. Allison’s residency (Thursday-Sunday)
The singer-songwriter and guitarist will play a four-day residency at the Black Cat Jazz Supper Club. The North Carolina musician is known for blending blues and gospel music with the bebop and soul genres.
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Tickets are available online, ranging in price from $20 to $50. The supper club is located at 400 Eddy St., with early and late shows taking place.
‘Pearls of Sorrow’ (Friday)
Members of the San Francisco Philharmonia Baroque Orchestra and Chorale return to Herbst Theatre for a performance that pairs 17th- and 18th-century African American and European spiritual hymns. The program features conductor Christine Brandes and countertenor Reginald Mobley.
‘Rogue Gestures/Foreign Bodies’ (Friday)
Based in San Francisco, members of the Nava Dance Theatre will perform a piece inspired by the oral histories of Indian nurses who came to the United States as a result of the 1965 Immigration and Nationality Act. The performance combines live music and experimental movement with bharatanatyam, a classical Indian dance.
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Tickets are available online, ranging from $27.45 to $40. The 90-minute show, which starts at 8 p.m., takes place at Dance Mission Theater.
‘A View from the Throne: Gina Schock — Inside The Go-Go’s’ (Saturday)
The Haight Street Art Center will examine one of rock music’s most famous all-female bands by highlighting archival materials, posters, photography and other rare ephemera from Gina Schock, the group’s drummer and a songwriter. Displayed items incude costumes, personal letters, Schock’s drum kit and band memorabilia.
The exhibition’s opening party runs from 5 to 9 p.m. The art center is located at 215 Haight St.
San Francisco Giants Fan Fest Tour (Saturday)
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Oracle Park’s doors will open to baseball fans for an afternoon of autographs, player meet-and-greets, stadium tours and photo opportunities with the team’s three World Series trophies. The team’s spring-training game taking place that day in Arizona will also be broadcast at the stadium.
San Francisco Greek Film Festival opening night (Saturday)
The 23rd edition of the showcase will come to the Delancey Street Foundation’s Embarcadero screening room for eight days of in-person events. More than 30 films will be screened, with presentations spanning documentaries, narrative features and short narrative films.
Tickets will go on sale soon, with opening night featuring “Broken Vein” by director Yannis Economides and “Nikh or the Impossible Hope of Trying” by Savvas Stavrou. Screenings start at 6 p.m., followed by a reception.
Oscars viewing party (Sunday)
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Small Car, Big Time Tours founder Reed Kirk-Rahlmann will host the Balboa Theater’s official viewing party for this year’s Academy Awards. Guests can expect prizes and trivia throughout the broadcast, with seating available on a first-come, first-served basis.
Smuin Contemporary Ballet’s annual gala (Sunday)
The 17th Street nonprofit will bring its 32nd annual gala to the San Francisco Design Center Galleria. Attendees will enjoy silent and live auctions, a seated dinner, a cocktail reception and a performance by ballet performers.
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The Smuin company in the world premiere of Jennifer Archibald’s “ByCHANCE” in October 2024.
Courtesy Chris Hardy
Tickets are available online. Guests are encouraged to dress in festive cocktail attire. The event starts at 5 p.m. takes place at 101 Henry Adams St.
People came out to speak out and speak up in San Francisco on International Women’s Day.
In San Francisco, demonstrators rallied and marched through Union Square, calling for not only the protection of women’s rights, but opposition to federal actions.
“I’m out here today for women’s rights, for all human rights,” Lacey, from the East Bay, said.
For over 100 years, people have recognized March 8 as International Women’s Day, a global day celebrating the social, economic, cultural and political achievements of women.
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The day also marks a call to action for gender equality. This year’s message varied, with some carrying signs calling for reproductive justice, women for peace not war and no war on Iran.
“We’re here today because the Trump regime’s attack on women and women’s rights is unacceptable and we have to rise of our millions we have to encourage that rising in our millions to defeat this,” Sully with Refuse Fascism said.
Sully was one of the speakers at the rally.
“We are going to be vehemently opposing the Trump regimes attack on Iran,” she said.
Meantime, Deborah and Paige who had their own take on the day.
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“We had the idea of dressing up like suffragettes to pay homage to our foremothers who led this very brave protest movement,” Deborah said.
They came with a reminder of their own.
“We want to remind people that protest movements do work,” Deborah said.
“Particularly, now that voting is really coming under attack with the Save Act,” Paige added.
After rallying, many in the group marched, vowing to keep speaking up.
San Francisco rang in the Year of the Fire Horse with its annual Chinese New Year parade Saturday evening, with thousands of revelers cheering on hometown hero and Olympic champion Eileen Gu as its grand marshal.
The procession featured drums, dancing and floats celebrating the vibrancy of the Chinese American community in the oldest celebration of its kind outside Asia and one of the largest.
Civic leaders and performers paraded from downtown to Chinatown through popping firecrackers. Children marched wearing inflatable horses while lion dancers and martial artists waved to the crowd.
The parade was first organized in the 1860s by Chinese immigrants who came to work during the California Gold Rush and wanted to share their culture through a “favorite American tradition,” the parade, according to the event website.
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While the celebration always draws massive crowds, attendees were especially excited for Gu, who drew loud cheers.
Vanessa Chan of neighboring South San Francisco said she represents “cultural infusion.”
“She’s really wonderful. … She’s funny, sunny, and she represents positivity,” Chan said.
Gu appeared partway through the parade in a red dress, sitting in a red convertible adorned with flowers. The color is a symbol of good fortune and prosperity for the Chinese holiday.
Parade organizer Wiliam Gee said Gu was picked for the role by the middle of last year — before she competed in the 2025 Milan-Cortino Winter Games, where she won two silver medals and one gold, making her the most decorated freestyle skier in Olympic history.
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“The year of the horse brings a lot of new life and energy,” Gee said. “She definitely represents Chinese heritage and definitely is an icon.”
Gu has come under scrutiny for her decision to represent China in competition, and Megan Chin, also of South San Francisco, said she felt the Olympian was attacked unfairly.
“When you’re multicultural and you want to celebrate both heritages, it’s great to be happy for someone if they want to celebrate their other heritage as well,” Chin said. “I am proud of her.”
Calvin Lui, who attended with his young son, said he loved Gu’s representation of the city where she was born and raised as well as her Chinese heritage.
“That’s her identity, both countries — so she gets the best of both worlds,” Lui said.
