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San Francisco was written off as dead. Now, real estate investors are flocking back.

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San Francisco was written off as dead. Now, real estate investors are flocking back.


The clouds hanging over San Francisco since the pandemic appear to be finally lifting — leading to predictions of a real estate rebound.

Following years of emptying office buildings and vacated storefronts, Fog City is buzzing again, thanks to return-to-office mandates at Amazon, Google, Salesforce, and more. This is good news for the city’s apartment buildings — and now some professional investors are taking notice.

“San Francisco had become an unsavory city, but we believe we’re starting to see a real recovery and we think it’s a good time to buy,” said Tom Shapiro, the president and founder of GTIS, a New York City based real estate investment firm with $4.7 billion of assets under management.

Shapiro is predicting rents will grow between 4% and 6% this year and next. Property values, meanwhile, have declined 30% to 50% from their pre-pandemic highs, creating an attractive buying opportunity.

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Asking rents in San Francisco were about $3,500 a month in the first quarter of 2020 and fell 25% by the end of the year as a result of the dislocation caused by the pandemic, according to estimates from the residential brokerage firm Compass. Average rents are now about $3,200 a month, closing in on pre-pandemic levels, including a 6.4% year-over-year jump in the first quarter, the Compass data showed.

Shapiro is also seeing growing competition in the space, including a nearly $100 million apartment property in the city that he said he is vying with three other bidders to purchase.

“There’s more people interested,” Shapiro said. “It’s not a secret like it was a year ago.”


Tom Shapiro

Tom Shapiro, president and founder of GTIS, a New York City based real estate investment firm

GTIS

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Dealmaking is back

About $363 million of individual multifamily real estate assets were sold in San Francisco in the first quarter of 2025, according to data from MSCI, triple the dollar volume during the same period last year and the year prior. MSCI’s analysis omitted large, multi-property deals, such as Brookfield’s acquisition of a portfolio of more than 70 apartments buildings in the city in early 2024, because they can artificially inflate the data.

Eli Edwards, the US head of real estate equity investments at Fortress Investment Group, said it has acquired 13 rental buildings in San Francisco in the past two years. The firm is currently under contract to acquire two more rental buildings in the city and has offers out for several more rental properties. Edwards said he is looking to double the number of apartments in the firm’s portfolio there this year.

Edwards, who lived in the city’s Russian Hill neighborhood until recently, urged Fortress to become an early investor in the city’s turnaround because he felt that negative perceptions were overblown and that much of the homelessness and disorder associated with the city were focused in only a handful of areas, including its Financial District and the Tenderloin, a nearby neighborhood.


Homeless encampments

Homeless encampments in the city’s Tenderloin in 2023

Anadolu/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

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Edwards said the firm has signed over 20 leases in the last year with rents “about 10% above” what the firm had expected to fetch when the units were vacated.

“The Fortress DNA is, find a situation where the perception of risk is higher than the actual risk,” Edwards said. “That was San Francisco.”

Philip Saglimbeni, a senior managing director at Institutional Property Advisors, a commercial real estate sales firm, said he and his team recently found a buyer for Presidio Landmark, a 161-unit luxury rental building controlled by Brookfield through a long-term ground lease. Saglimbeni said the buyer was offering “north of a hundred million” dollars for the property, which is located in the Presidio, a national park south of the Golden Gate Bridge.

He declined to disclose the purchaser’s identity, saying the agreement was still being finalized, but said it was an “investment advisory shop.”

A spokeswoman for Brookfield declined to comment.

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New inventory is scarce

The city’s anemic pipeline of new housing, which could raise rents even higher, adds to its appeal among investors, who believe the city’s scarcity of apartments will inflate rents.

A report by the San Francisco Planning Department that was released in April stated that 1,597 units of new housing were added in the city in 2024, 56% below the yearly average over the last decade. 1,024 units were permitted for construction during the year, 67% below the 10-year annual average.

“It’s a massive imbalance and it will be perpetual,” Saglimbeni said, describing the discrepancy between the demand for housing and new supply in San Francisco. “That’s what investors see and that’s why they gravitate to regions like this.”

The city’s beleaguered office market has also begun to improve, offering another potential boost to the apartment market’s recovery by luring in more workers who may want to rent apartments.

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Office attendance in San Francisco recently reached about 43% of its pre-pandemic levels, according to employee swipe data from Kastle System, far above its record low of about 8% in 2020. 1.7 million square feet of space was leased in San Francisco during the first quarter, the most activity since 2019, according to data from the real estate services firm Cushman & Wakefield.

Early last year, Brookfield paid more than $600 million to acquire distressed loans tied to more than 2,000 apartments spread across more than 70 buildings in San Francisco and took ownership of the properties.

“When we made that investment, people weren’t going to the office, people weren’t going downtown,” said Mike Greene, a managing director at Brookfield who oversees its residential investments in the western US. “And that’s dramatically changed.”

Greene said that the 75 buildings in the portfolio now have a 95% occupancy rate, up from 67% when Brookfield took ownership.

“We feel pretty good about that,” Greene said.

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San Francisco firefighters to retire uniforms linked to cancer

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San Francisco firefighters to retire uniforms linked to cancer


San Francisco firefighters are finally getting the protective gear they were promised after years’ long research revealed certain chemicals used in traditional firefighter uniforms can cause cancer.

“What none of us could have known is that some of the very gear designed to protect us was quietly harming us,” said San Francisco Fire Chief Dean Crispen, who spoke alongside dozens of first responders on Thursday as he announced the city’s $3.6 million plan to provide protective equipment to all frontline firefighters by the end of the year.  “This is a joyous occasion for our city.”

San Francisco Fire Chief Dean Crispen was flanked by the mayor, state and local lawmakers, and dozens of first responders on Thursday when detailing the city’s plans to provide new, non-PFAS uniforms to frontline firefighters across San Francisco.

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The San Francisco fire department, the tenth largest in the nation, has already distributed the redesigned gear to about 80 of its firefighters and hopes to have all 1,100 of its new uniforms in use within the next three weeks – that’s enough protective equipment to provide one uniform to each of the city’s frontline firefighters.  While city leaders hope to eventually purchase a second set of gear, San Francisco firefighters will, for now, need to wash their new gear before returning to work or continue to rely on their old uniform as a backup.

“Public safety relies on the people who stand between danger and our residents,” Mayor Lurie told the crowd during Thursday’s announcement.  “Firefighter health must always be at the center of our decisions.”

San Francisco’s efforts stem from a first-in-the-nation ban that local lawmakers passed last year, which requires the city to outfit firefighters with new uniforms by July 2026. Over the years, studies have shown the jackets and pants firefighters across America have long relied on to keep safe during emergencies are made with materials proven to cause cancer. 

These so-called “PFAS” materials, often referred to as ‘forever chemicals’ because of their reluctance to breakdown, have long been used to bolster the reliability of firefighter clothing by helping to repel flammable liquids and reduce temperatures, even in extreme heat.  Researchers, however, have found the compounds to be harmful when absorbed through skin. While the precise level of PFAS exposure for firefighters and the associated health risks are still being studied, the compounds have been linked to cancer and other negative health effects impacting cholesterol levels and the immune system, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

PFAS aside, the inherit health risks of firefighting, including prolonged exposure to smoke and ash, led the World Health Organization to deem the occupation a “carcinogen.”  Yet, some fear the very safety uniforms firefighters have come to rely on for protection could also be making them sick. 

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Female firefighters in San Francisco are six times more likely to develop cancer compared to the national average, according to the San Francisco Firefighters Cancer Prevention Foundation.

Female firefighters in San Francisco are six times more likely to develop cancer compared to the national average, according to the San Francisco Firefighters Cancer Prevention Foundation.

In San Francisco, female firefighters have a six times higher rate of breast cancer than the national average, according to the San Francisco Firefighters Cancer Prevention Foundation. More than 400 firefighters in San Francisco have been lost to cancer over the past 20 years, according to the city’s fire department.

“The cost of inaction is measured in funerals,” said Stephen Gilman, who represents the local chapter of the International Association of Fire Fighters (IAFF). “The reward of action is measured in lives saved.”


The cost of inaction is measured in funerals.

Stephen Gilman, International Assoc. of Fire Fighters (IAFF)


While materials laced with PFAS have been shown to pose safety risks, so has fire gear that has been manufactured without it.  Last year, the NBC Bay Area Investigative Unit reported on research from North Carolina State University that found non-PFAS fire equipment to be less breathable and more flammable than traditional uniforms made with PFAS.

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“We don’t want to just trade one hazard for another,” Dr. Bryan Ormand told the Investigative Unit back in May 2024.  “We’re introducing a potential hazard for flammability on the fire scene where firefighters didn’t have that before.”

The San Francisco Board of Supervisors is scheduled to vote Tuesday on a city-wide ban of what are known as ‘PFAS’ or ‘forever chemicals,’ but replacement options still aren’t widely available and those that are seem be raising new safety concerns. Senior Investigator Bigad Shaban reports.

Milliken & Company, the textile firm that made the material for San Francisco’s latest uniforms, said the new type of gear “meets or exceeds” all industry standards for “breathability and thermal protection.” 

“We refused to trade one hazard for another,” Marcio Manique, senior vice president and managing director of Milliken’s apparel business, noted in a written statement.

“It meets the strictest performance standards without adding weight or compromising breathability – giving firefighters exactly what they asked for.”

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We refused to trade one hazard for another

Marcio Manique, senior vice president and managing director of Milliken’s apparel business


In San Francisco, the new gear underwent a 90-day test trial with 50 of the city’s own firefighters.

“What we did was we actually went through a really comprehensive testing process,” Chief Crispen told the Investigative Unit.  “It went to the lab and received testing and everything came back great, so we feel strongly about this product.”


Contact The Investigative Unit

submit tips | 1-888-996-TIPS | e-mail Bigad

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Gas explosion in San Francisco Bay Area damages homes, sends heavy smoke into air

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Gas explosion in San Francisco Bay Area damages homes, sends heavy smoke into air


SAN FRANCISCO — A gas explosion started a major fire in a San Francisco Bay Area neighborhood on Thursday, damaging several homes and sending heavy smoke into the air.

Local outlets said there are possible injuries from the Hayward explosion.

A spokesperson with Pacific Gas & Electric Co. said a construction crew damaged an underground gas line around 7:35 a.m. The company said it was not their workers.

Utility workers isolated the damaged line and stopped the flow of gas at 9:25 a.m., PG&E said. The explosion occurred shortly afterward.

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San Francisco restaurant removes tip from check, adds stability for workers

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San Francisco restaurant removes tip from check, adds stability for workers


It’s another packed night at La Cigale in San Francisco, where chef Joseph Magidow works the hearth like a conductor, each dish part of a high-end Southern French feast for the fifteen diners lucky enough to score a front-row seat. 

It feels like the beginning of any great night out, until you realize this restaurant has quietly removed the part of dining that usually causes the most indigestion.

“You get to the end and all of a sudden you have this check and it’s like a Spirit Airlines bill where it’s like plus this plus plus that,” Magidow said.

So La Cigale made a rare move: they “86ed” the surprise charges, restaurant-speak for taking something off the menu. Dinner here is all-inclusive at $140 per person, but with no tax, no tip, no service fees. Just the price on the menu and that’s the price you pay.

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“There’s no tip line on the check. When you sign the bill, that’s the end of the transaction,” Magidow said. 

Though still rare, across the country, more restaurants are test-driving tip-free dining, a pushback against what many now call “tip-flation.” A recent survey found 41% of Americans think tipping has gotten out of control.

La Cigale customer, Jenny Bennett, said that while she believes in tipping, she liked the idea of waiters being paid a fair wage. 

“Everywhere you go, even for the smallest little item, they’re flipping around the little iPad,” she said. 

At La Cigale, servers make about $40 an hour whether the night is slow or slammed. The upside is stability. The downside? No big-tip windfalls. 

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But for server and sommelier Claire Bivins, it was a trade she was happy to take.

“It creates a little bit of a sense of security for everyone and definitely takes a degree of pressure off from each night,” she said. 

The stability doesn’t end there. La Cigale offers paid vacation, a perk most restaurant workers only dream of.

For Magidow, ditching tips also means leaving behind a system rooted in America’s painful past.

“It was a model that was created to take former enslaved people, who many of them went into the hospitality industry, after slavery and put them in a position where they are still being controlled by the guest.”

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And as for the bottom line? It hasn’t taken a hit. 

“It seems like everyone is leaving happy,” Magidow said. “That’s really all we can hope for.”



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