Connect with us

San Francisco, CA

San Francisco was written off as dead. Now, real estate investors are flocking back.

Published

on

San Francisco was written off as dead. Now, real estate investors are flocking back.


The clouds hanging over San Francisco since the pandemic appear to be finally lifting — leading to predictions of a real estate rebound.

Following years of emptying office buildings and vacated storefronts, Fog City is buzzing again, thanks to return-to-office mandates at Amazon, Google, Salesforce, and more. This is good news for the city’s apartment buildings — and now some professional investors are taking notice.

“San Francisco had become an unsavory city, but we believe we’re starting to see a real recovery and we think it’s a good time to buy,” said Tom Shapiro, the president and founder of GTIS, a New York City based real estate investment firm with $4.7 billion of assets under management.

Shapiro is predicting rents will grow between 4% and 6% this year and next. Property values, meanwhile, have declined 30% to 50% from their pre-pandemic highs, creating an attractive buying opportunity.

Advertisement

Asking rents in San Francisco were about $3,500 a month in the first quarter of 2020 and fell 25% by the end of the year as a result of the dislocation caused by the pandemic, according to estimates from the residential brokerage firm Compass. Average rents are now about $3,200 a month, closing in on pre-pandemic levels, including a 6.4% year-over-year jump in the first quarter, the Compass data showed.

Shapiro is also seeing growing competition in the space, including a nearly $100 million apartment property in the city that he said he is vying with three other bidders to purchase.

“There’s more people interested,” Shapiro said. “It’s not a secret like it was a year ago.”


Tom Shapiro

Tom Shapiro, president and founder of GTIS, a New York City based real estate investment firm

GTIS

Advertisement



Dealmaking is back

About $363 million of individual multifamily real estate assets were sold in San Francisco in the first quarter of 2025, according to data from MSCI, triple the dollar volume during the same period last year and the year prior. MSCI’s analysis omitted large, multi-property deals, such as Brookfield’s acquisition of a portfolio of more than 70 apartments buildings in the city in early 2024, because they can artificially inflate the data.

Eli Edwards, the US head of real estate equity investments at Fortress Investment Group, said it has acquired 13 rental buildings in San Francisco in the past two years. The firm is currently under contract to acquire two more rental buildings in the city and has offers out for several more rental properties. Edwards said he is looking to double the number of apartments in the firm’s portfolio there this year.

Edwards, who lived in the city’s Russian Hill neighborhood until recently, urged Fortress to become an early investor in the city’s turnaround because he felt that negative perceptions were overblown and that much of the homelessness and disorder associated with the city were focused in only a handful of areas, including its Financial District and the Tenderloin, a nearby neighborhood.


Homeless encampments

Homeless encampments in the city’s Tenderloin in 2023

Anadolu/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Advertisement



Edwards said the firm has signed over 20 leases in the last year with rents “about 10% above” what the firm had expected to fetch when the units were vacated.

“The Fortress DNA is, find a situation where the perception of risk is higher than the actual risk,” Edwards said. “That was San Francisco.”

Philip Saglimbeni, a senior managing director at Institutional Property Advisors, a commercial real estate sales firm, said he and his team recently found a buyer for Presidio Landmark, a 161-unit luxury rental building controlled by Brookfield through a long-term ground lease. Saglimbeni said the buyer was offering “north of a hundred million” dollars for the property, which is located in the Presidio, a national park south of the Golden Gate Bridge.

He declined to disclose the purchaser’s identity, saying the agreement was still being finalized, but said it was an “investment advisory shop.”

A spokeswoman for Brookfield declined to comment.

Advertisement

New inventory is scarce

The city’s anemic pipeline of new housing, which could raise rents even higher, adds to its appeal among investors, who believe the city’s scarcity of apartments will inflate rents.

A report by the San Francisco Planning Department that was released in April stated that 1,597 units of new housing were added in the city in 2024, 56% below the yearly average over the last decade. 1,024 units were permitted for construction during the year, 67% below the 10-year annual average.

“It’s a massive imbalance and it will be perpetual,” Saglimbeni said, describing the discrepancy between the demand for housing and new supply in San Francisco. “That’s what investors see and that’s why they gravitate to regions like this.”

The city’s beleaguered office market has also begun to improve, offering another potential boost to the apartment market’s recovery by luring in more workers who may want to rent apartments.

Advertisement

Office attendance in San Francisco recently reached about 43% of its pre-pandemic levels, according to employee swipe data from Kastle System, far above its record low of about 8% in 2020. 1.7 million square feet of space was leased in San Francisco during the first quarter, the most activity since 2019, according to data from the real estate services firm Cushman & Wakefield.

Early last year, Brookfield paid more than $600 million to acquire distressed loans tied to more than 2,000 apartments spread across more than 70 buildings in San Francisco and took ownership of the properties.

“When we made that investment, people weren’t going to the office, people weren’t going downtown,” said Mike Greene, a managing director at Brookfield who oversees its residential investments in the western US. “And that’s dramatically changed.”

Greene said that the 75 buildings in the portfolio now have a 95% occupancy rate, up from 67% when Brookfield took ownership.

“We feel pretty good about that,” Greene said.

Advertisement





Source link

San Francisco, CA

What’s Worth More Than Cash in San Francisco Real Estate? Anthropic Stock

Published

on

What’s Worth More Than Cash in San Francisco Real Estate? Anthropic Stock


Few things are more valuable in the Bay Area than real estate. In San Francisco, the median house price is now over $2 million. Last month, at least seven houses in the city sold for $1 million over the asking price, and buyers regularly offer to pay in cash or waive contingencies to stay competitive. Yet there is one thing that remains even more valuable than a house, and possibly more valuable than money itself: stock in Anthropic or OpenAI.

Last week, 160 Noe Street, an Edwardian home in San Francisco’s desirable Duboce Triangle neighborhood, was listed for sale at $2.9 million—or the equivalent amount in Anthropic or OpenAI shares, as based on those companies’ current valuations. Rachel Swann, the listing agent, says she was inspired to set these unusual terms after meeting several Anthropic employees at an open house for a different property. “These people have a lot of paper wealth, but they don’t always have the liquidity to do things they want,” Swann says. Some of these employees were expecting to come into as much as $50 million from their Anthropic shares, and wondered if they could use that as leverage to buy a house, according to Swann. “This kept coming up over and over again.”

Swann’s listing is unconventional, but not singular. In April, an investment banker named Storm Duncan offered to exchange his Mill Valley home and an adjacent parcel of land for Anthropic shares. And in May, Vijay Chattha, who owns an agency that does PR for tech companies, listed his Healdsburg home for $2.5 million, or $2 million in Anthropic stock. “I want to sell my house, and I want to invest in Anthropic,” Chattha says. “Why not combine the two?

Chattha’s house—a three bed, three bath with a pool and a bocce court in a part of Sonoma County that abuts some of the region’s most famous wineries—also comes with coveted short-term rental status, allowing the owner to list it on platforms like Airbnb. Only a handful of properties in Healdsburg come with that status, and only about a dozen come up for sale in a given year.

Advertisement

Chattha is offering a $500,000 discount to Anthropic employees because he believes the value of Anthropic shares will grow faster than any other investment, and his vacation home in wine country is the best bargaining chip he has to try to access them. “If you look at Anthropic’s growth last year, it’s insane,” he says, noting the $380 billion valuation the company claimed in February. “Now they’re raising at $965 billion. That’s three X in like three months.” He added that he was open to exchanging the house for shares in Anthropic, but not OpenAI, because he prefers using Anthropic’s products.

The real estate listings come at a time when investors are salivating at the record-high valuations of Anthropic and OpenAI, and even those considered wealthy by Bay Area standards are feeling FOMO about the affluence that could come from these companies’ debuts on the stock market. (On Monday, Anthropic submitted paperwork for its initial public offering; OpenAI is also reportedly preparing to file in the coming months.) Despite the unprecedented valuations of these companies, many people believe their stock prices will only go up, and that anyone who gets a piece now could win the jackpot.

People are clamoring to buy equity in OpenAI and Anthropic on the secondary market, leading to a frenzy of transactions that may or may not be legitimate. As a result, Anthropic updated its policy around “unauthorized Anthropic stock sales” this spring, which notes that “if someone purports to sell Anthropic shares without proper board approval, that transaction is invalid.” A spokesperson for Anthropic pointed back to this policy when asked about the possibility of exchanging company shares for real estate.



Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

San Francisco, CA

Live Updates: San Francisco Primary Election 2026

Published

on

Live Updates: San Francisco Primary Election 2026


Welcome to our running tally of Election Night results. Or, as this is California, well beyond tonight, as results continue to trickle in.

The first batch of results should arrive at 8:45 p.m., with three more to follow tonight. The Department of Elections has the breakdown.

San Francisco is voting in three special elections, for District 2 and District 4 supervisors and for a Board of Education member. Both supervisor races are referendums on housing, especially District 2, while the main backdrop of the D4 race is all the hot feelings around the fate of the Sunset Dunes Park (nee Great Highway).

The winners of all three special races will have to compete again in November for their seats.

Advertisement

Keeping it local, SF is also voting on four ballot measures. Prop A is for a bond to pay for an emergency water-system. B is for term limits. C and D are dueling measures related to the “overpaid CEO” tax. (Links go to our reporting on each race or issue; or click here for our Election 2026 page.)

Vote local, think national: Which two candidates will advance to the November election to replace Nancy Pelosi?

Statewide races include the primaries for governor, education superintendent, lieutenant governor, and much more.

Polls close soon. If you haven’t voted yet, find your polling station here.

Tuesday, June 2, 5:40 p.m.

Two and a half hours until our polls close. Before we go down the local rabbit hole, a reminder that other states have primary action today: New Jersey, Iowa, New Mexico, South Dakota, and Montana.

Advertisement

Why does it take so long to get results in California? CalMatters has you covered on that story. We shouldn’t expect a call tonight on the governor’s race.

The last big election was November 5, 2024. (Remember?) Ten days later, there were still races to call in San Francisco.


Advertisement

So if you’re waiting for the pundits (and maybe even us) to tell you What It All Means, you might have to wait a while.



Source link

Continue Reading

San Francisco, CA

San Francisco voters to decide on dueling measures on Top Executive Pay Tax changes

Published

on

San Francisco voters to decide on dueling measures on Top Executive Pay Tax changes


San Francisco voters weighed in Tuesday on two competing measures that seek to change the Top Executive Pay Tax, with one of the measures also including a change to the Gross Receipts Tax.

Should both measures pass, the one with the most votes will take effect, according to the propositions’ legal text.

Currently, the measures state that most businesses with San Francisco gross receipts up to $5 million are exempt from the Gross Receipts Tax. And businesses that use more than half of their city payroll for in-house administrative and management services pay an Administrative Office Tax instead of a Gross Receipts Tax.

The Top Executive Pay Tax is a tax some large businesses pay if their highest-paid managerial employee earns more than 100 times the median pay of their San Francisco employees. Businesses that have city gross receipts up to $5 million and are not subject to the Administrative Office Tax are exempt.

Advertisement

Proposition C

Proposition C states it would increase the number of businesses that could be exempt from the Gross Receipts Tax and would stop any further increases to the “Top Executive Pay Tax” after a final rate bump.

The proposed measure says it would raise the Gross Receipts Tax exemption ceiling to $7.5 million. The $7.5 million ceiling would also apply to the Top Executive Pay Tax exemption.

As for changes to the Top Executive Pay Tax, Proposition C states it would implement the 2028 tax rate increase in 2027, but then stop any future increases.

Supporting Proposition C are Rodney Fong, CEO of the San Francisco Chamber of Commerce, and Chris Wright, senior vice president of Advance SF, an organization of companies, which includes Bank of America, OpenAI, Waymo, the SF Giants CEO and others.

Fong and Wright, in their argument for the measure, say giving businesses more tax breaks would help keep more employees on payroll and would give companies the ability to “contribute to city services in a predictable and balanced way.”

Advertisement

Critics of Proposition C, such as the San Francisco Tenants Union, slam the measure as “billionaire-backed” and argue it would kill the Top Executive Pay Tax and would hand out more tax breaks to businesses at a time when the city is in a budget deficit and faces cuts to essential services.

Proposition D

Proposition D also seeks to change the Top Executive Pay Tax, which is collected from some large businesses where the highest-paid managerial employee earns more than 100 times the median compensation paid to other employees.

If approved, the measure would change the calculation of the tax using the compensation of all employees, not just employees based in San Francisco. Top Executive Pay Tax rates would also be increased for San Francisco gross receipts and payroll.

Supporters have billed the measure as a way to counteract federal cuts to Medicaid. A report by the City Controller’s Office said the measure could result in $250 million to $300 million in additional revenue.

“Proposition D is the solution to our budget deficit. It asks large corporations — not small businesses, not working families — to contribute a little more,” supporters said in the city’s official voter guide.

Advertisement

The measure has the backing of most of the Board of Supervisors, along with labor unions and Rep. Nancy Pelosi.

Opponents, including Mayor Daniel Lurie and state Sen. Scott Wiener, have argued Proposition D would negatively impact the city’s recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic. 

“San Francisco is already one of the most expensive cities in the country to live and do business. Adding extreme and unpredictable tax increases risks driving employers away just as we are trying to bring jobs, workers, and foot traffic back downtown,” said Supervisor Matt Dorsey in the city’s voter guide.



Source link

Continue Reading
Advertisement

Trending