San Francisco, CA
Experts: Muni tax likely to pass; regional transit measure a toss-up
Even as voters cite affordability as their top concern, San Franciscans may still be willing to raise their own taxes.
Political experts say a proposed $183 million parcel tax to fund Muni is likely to pass with ease, highlighting the city’s enduring support for public transit. But a separate regional sales tax measure to fund BART, Muni, and 10 other Bay Area transit agencies faces a far more uncertain path. Both measures, slated for the November ballot, require a simple majority to pass.
Essentially, the pundits say, San Francisco voters are so tax-happy and engaged that even with a measure-heavy ballot, they’ll likely support the two measures regardless of affordability concerns. According to campaign expert Jason Overman, San Francisco has better voter turnout for off-cycle elections than other U.S. cities, meaning tax opponents will be less likely to steer the results.
Combine that with well-founded fears that the demise of public transit would lead to tougher commutes and freeway congestion, and you have the makings of a victory at the ballot box.
“I don’t think a new tax [in San Francisco] has failed directly in years,” said political consultant Jim Ross.
However, few experts feel confident the regional tax measure will pass, as it must have the support of voters in five Bay Area counties. Contra Costa County, which is far less favorable to new taxes, was singled out by analysts.
Contra Costa County has only once passed a sales tax to fund transportation, Measure J in 2004, according to John Whitehurst, a partner at BMWL Public Affairs. Measure J had a much higher two-thirds majority threshold.
What experts are tracking as a signal for the transportation sales tax’s prospects is whether Contra Costa voters pass a sales tax (opens in new tab) of five-eighths of a cent in June.
“I think we’re gonna get some tea leaves here to read in June,” Whitehurst said.
What the Muni tax and regional measure have in common is that the consequences of degraded public transit are easy for voters across the socioeconomic spectrum to comprehend. Even if someone doesn’t use public transportation, worsening traffic on Bay Area freeways affects the people they rely on — like their children’s teachers or their employees.
“I think the transit stuff is much more visceral,” Overman said.
According to SF State political science professor Jason McDaniel, both efforts are bolstered by a widespread feeling among Democratic voters, who dominate the Bay Area, that turnout is key to taking back power from Republicans in Washington.
But McDaniel highlighted a latent risk of tax fatigue as public agencies continue to ask voters for funding. He pointed to a slice of affluent, liberal homeowners who generally back taxes for public services but may feel “cross‑pressured” by perceptions that government agencies and unions waste money.
“If I had to predict, I think these things are going to pass, but some of the support might be softer than what we’ve seen in past years,” McDaniel said.
Sonoma State political science professor David McCuan said he’s cautiously optimistic about the passage of both measures but predicts that the margin of success will be narrow. A high turnout in November could be key to the success of the regional measure.
“That puts the Bay Area regional measure in a place that is slightly better than a coin flip on the positive side,” he said. “But barely.”
McCuan noted that an effective campaign can shift voter support by roughly three to six percentage points in either direction.
On the parcel tax, that campaign appears to be in pole position. Mayor Daniel Lurie has made himself the face of the initiative, and it has broad-based support from the Board of Supervisors and a laundry list of labor groups. Early union support is a promising sign, as strong campaigns need funding and endorsements, and unions can help deliver both, McCuan said.
“All signs point to success, but there’s wiggle room within the margin of error,” he said.
The 4,140-sq-km bay is the largest estuary on the west coast of the US. Before 2018, this species of whales wasn’t known to stop seasonally or consistently in the bay, bypassing it on their migration route down to Baja California and back up the Arctic, said Josephine Slaathaug, who led a recent study on gray whale mortality in the bay.
One of San Francisco’s busiest freeways remained shut down Saturday, creating major traffic delays and dampening business for some local restaurants and shops.
All eastbound lanes of Interstate 80 just before the Bay Bridge are closed as crews work around the clock to rehabilitate the roadway. The 55-hour shutdown, which began on Friday night, is scheduled to last until Monday morning in time for the commute.
The closure has forced drivers onto detour routes, leading to heavy congestion for those trying to reach the East Bay, including Oakland and Berkeley.
The impact is being felt beyond the roadways.
At MoMo’s, a restaurant across from Oracle Park, staff found business noticeably slower.
“A little bit more mellow than usual. We usually see a little bit more foot traffic, a little bit more people on Saturdays,” said Daniel Bermudez, executive chef at MoMo’s.
Bermudez believes the freeway closure may be discouraging visitors from coming into the city this weekend, despite favorable weather.
“The weather is beautiful today. It’s nice and sunny. So we have plenty of tables outside,” he said.
With the San Francisco Giants playing an away game, the restaurant had hoped fans would still gather to watch, but turnout during game time remained light.
“This is kind of like our off-season Saturday. A lot slower than our baseball weekend,” said Casandra Alarcon, general manager at MoMo’s.
Other small businesses in the Mission Bay and South of Market neighborhoods reported similar trends, saying most of their customers are regulars who live nearby rather than visitors.
“A little bit slower for sure. Before, we had tourists come and walk to the baseball park,” said Ajaree Safron, manager at Brickhouse Cafe & Bar.
Caltrans has shut down eastbound lanes between 17th and 4th streets to repave the 71-year-old roadway. The goal is to extend the life of the Bayshore Freeway by another decade.
City and transportation officials said the timing of the closure was intentional, noting fewer major events scheduled in San Francisco this weekend, aside from the Cherry Blossom Festival.
Westbound lanes remain open, and officials said traffic heading into San Francisco from the East Bay has not been significantly affected.
“Getting into the city, it wasn’t too bad. Regular [traffic], what we expect on a Saturday morning,” said visitor Andrea Inouye.
While the closure has posed challenges for businesses, some workers said they are taking it in stride.
“Hopefully, it’s not for too long and we get past it, and get back to our normal routine,” Bermudez said.
Despite early concerns about widespread gridlock, transportation officials said the region has avoided the worst-case scenario. Traffic remains heavy in areas near detours, but the anticipated “carmageddon” has not materialized, in part because many drivers chose to avoid the area or take public transit.
Bay Area High School baseball fans are treated to a rare opportunity Saturday (April 18) with three games at Oracle Park, home of the San Francisco Giants, including the famed Bruce-Mahoney clash between West Catholic Athletic League rivals St. Ignatius and Sacred Heart Cathedral.
The first pitch of the 20th annual Dante Benedetti Baseball Classic starts at 11 a.m. and pits two more San Francisco private schools as University (9-7), winners of four straight, taking on Riordan (5-11).
That will be followed by the Bruce-Mahoney game at 2:30 between St. Ignatius (12-5, 4-2 WCAL) and the Irish (7-10, 1-5) and finished off with a North Coast Section clash between North Bay’s Marin Catholic (9-7) against Acalanes (7-6-1).
The Benedetti Classic, founded by Dante’s Boys Foundation board member Tom Lounibos and Giants president Larry Baer, benefits the DBF which honors the spirit of Benedetti who for nearly 40 years owned San Francisco’s Mr. Baseball nickname for his kindness and generosity to baseball-playing youth in the area.
Among their philanthropic efforts are glove and baseball equipment drives, field renovations and contributions to scholarships and sponsorships.
After starting the season 0-4 — three of those losses were by one run — University, under head coach Andrew Suvunnachuen, has found its way, winning the last four, all in Bay Counties League play, by a combined 51-6 count over Lick-Wilmerding (16-1 and 11-3) and San Domenico (13-2 and 11-0).
Senior catcher and pitcher Jett Messenger leads the way with a .447 average, while getting on base at a .638 rate. He also leads the team with 20 stolen bases. Junior third baseman Tate Gebhart is hitting .419, while Leo Felder and Behbart share the RBI lead with 15 each.
Junior Matthew Foley is 3-2 on the mound with a 2.38 ERA and 25 strikeouts in 17.2 innings.
Riordan, under second-year head coach Craig Sargent, was 5-5 in nonleague games but lost six straight in the rugged WCAL, losing two tough games this week to Mitty (3-2 and 7-4). Junior third baseman and pitcher Santiono Williams leads the team in batting average (.371), on-base percentage (.488) and stolen bases (nine). He’s also been the team’s top pitcher at 4-2 with a 2.84 ERA.
The teams have split two previous games in their history, with Riordan winning 2-0 in 2023 and University prevailing 5-0 in 2021.
St. Ignatius, led by ninth-year head coach Brian Pollzzie, has already secured the Bruce-Mahoney trophy with four straight wins — one each in football, girls volleyball, boys basketball and girls basketball — but this rivalry is always spirited.
The Wildcats, who are ranked fourth in the Bay Area by the San Francisco Chronicle, are coming off a tough 3-0 home loss to No. 2 St. Francis on Friday after beating the host Lancers 10-6 on Tuesday.
The team is led by Stanford-bound Archer Horn, who is hitting .486 with four home runs and a .604 on-base percentage. The shortstop and pitcher also has not allowed an earned run in three pitching appearances while registering one save.
Pitching is a team’s strength with a 2.59 ERA, led by a brigade of strong arms including Leo Rhein (2-0, 2.38), Tycco Giometti (2-1, 2.62), Charlie Stecher 1-1, 0.72) and Chase Gordon (1-0, 2.80). The team is missing standout Finn Demuth, out of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Sacred Heart Cathedral, led by fourth-year head coach Gregg Franceschi, has scored 60 runs on the season and given up 61. The Irish are coming off two losses to eighth-ranked Valley Christian (5-2 and 10-1).
They are led offensively by junior outfielder Brody O’Sullivan (.381) and senior infielder Jacob Vines (.378). Johnny Nepomuceno and Max Nylander are other run-producers. Zach Stallworth (37 strikeouts, 29.2 innings) and Cooper Rogers Lewis (0.25 ERA) have been the team’s top pitchers.
The series has been remarkably close since 2005 with Sacred Heart Cathedral holding a 27-20 edge, though St. Ignatius won both games last season (5-0 and 6-3) after the Irish won 9-7 and 1-0 in 2024.
Marin Catholic hopes to get back to winning after starting the season 9-1, but have since lost six straight, four in Marin County Athletic League play, including 4-2 to Novato on Thursday. Senior outfield Luke Martin is the team’s leading hitter at .478 while senior infielder and pitcher Cooper Mitchell is at .455. Senior infielder Walker Untermann leads the team with 15 RBIs.
Acalanes is at the other end of the spectrum, winners of five of six after a 2-5-1 start. Junior infielder Tyler Winkles, also a highly recruited quarterback in football, leads the team with a .383 average and nine stolen bases. Riley Gates (2-3, 2.49 ERA, 30 strikeouts) is the team’s top pitcher.
The teams have played three times, all since 2022, with Marin Catholic owning a 2-1 lead. Acalanes won last year’s game 8-7.
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