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Experts: Muni tax likely to pass; regional transit measure a toss-up

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Experts: Muni tax likely to pass; regional transit measure a toss-up


Even as voters cite affordability as their top concern, San Franciscans may still be willing to raise their own taxes.

Political experts say a proposed $183 million parcel tax to fund Muni is likely to pass with ease, highlighting the city’s enduring support for public transit. But a separate regional sales tax measure to fund BART, Muni, and 10 other Bay Area transit agencies faces a far more uncertain path. Both measures, slated for the November ballot, require a simple majority to pass.

Essentially, the pundits say, San Francisco voters are so tax-happy and engaged that even with a measure-heavy ballot, they’ll likely support the two measures regardless of affordability concerns. According to campaign expert Jason Overman, San Francisco has better voter turnout for off-cycle elections than other U.S. cities, meaning tax opponents will be less likely to steer the results.

Combine that with well-founded fears that the demise of public transit would lead to tougher commutes and freeway congestion, and you have the makings of a victory at the ballot box. 

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“I don’t think a new tax [in San Francisco] has failed directly in years,” said political consultant Jim Ross.

However, few experts feel confident the regional tax measure will pass, as it must have the support of voters in five Bay Area counties. Contra Costa County, which is far less favorable to new taxes, was singled out by analysts. 

BART has warned that it could shutter 15 stations, or even close altogether, if voters don’t approve a new sales tax to fund it. | Source: Amanda Andrade-Rhoades/The Standard

Contra Costa County has only once passed a sales tax to fund transportation, Measure J in 2004, according to John Whitehurst, a partner at BMWL Public Affairs. Measure J had a much higher two-thirds majority threshold.  

What experts are tracking as a signal for the transportation sales tax’s prospects is whether Contra Costa voters pass a sales tax (opens in new tab) of five-eighths of a cent in June. 

“I think we’re gonna get some tea leaves here to read in June,” Whitehurst said. 

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What the Muni tax and regional measure have in common is that the consequences of degraded public transit are easy for voters across the socioeconomic spectrum to comprehend. Even if someone doesn’t use public transportation, worsening traffic on Bay Area freeways affects the people they rely on — like their children’s teachers or their employees.

“I think the transit stuff is much more visceral,” Overman said.

According to SF State political science professor Jason McDaniel, both efforts are bolstered by a widespread feeling among Democratic voters, who dominate the Bay Area, that turnout is key to taking back power from Republicans in Washington.

But McDaniel highlighted a latent risk of tax fatigue as public agencies continue to ask voters for funding. He pointed to a slice of affluent, liberal homeowners who generally back taxes for public services but may feel “cross‑pressured” by perceptions that government agencies and unions waste money.

“If I had to predict, I think these things are going to pass, but some of the support might be softer than what we’ve seen in past years,” McDaniel said. 

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A red city bus with a digital sign is parked on a street, with pedestrians nearby.
The SFMTA has warned it could severely cut service if one or both of the tax measures don’t pass in November. | Source: Jeremy Chen/The Standard

Sonoma State political science professor David McCuan said he’s cautiously optimistic about the passage of both measures but predicts that the margin of success will be narrow. A high turnout in November could be key to the success of the regional measure. 

“That puts the Bay Area regional measure in a place that is slightly better than a coin flip on the positive side,” he said. “But barely.”

McCuan noted that an effective campaign can shift voter support by roughly three to six percentage points in either direction.

On the parcel tax, that campaign appears to be in pole position. Mayor Daniel Lurie has made himself the face of the initiative, and it has broad-based support from the Board of Supervisors and a laundry list of labor groups. Early union support is a promising sign, as strong campaigns need funding and endorsements, and unions can help deliver both, McCuan said.

“All signs point to success, but there’s wiggle room within the margin of error,” he said.



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A 1906 fire burned 200,000 books. More than a century later, one was returned | CNN

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A 1906 fire burned 200,000 books. More than a century later, one was returned | CNN


Inside a charred book, pages dotted in soot stains tell the story of how San Francisco rose to the epicenter of a gold rush. Barely escaping the 1906 earthquake, this book should’ve burned completely.

The city’s oldest continually operating library presumed it did. After all, almost 200,000 volumes inside the Mechanics’ Institute did. That was until Randall Schwed donated the book to the library in December. Fumbling around an online marketplace, Schwed found “Echoes of the Foot-Hills” listed for $35.

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“What’s interesting about this book is that it’s a survivor,” Schwed told CNN. “I needed to send it home.”

Fires heavily damaged the city during the 1906 earthquake and other fires followed. While no one knows which fire the book survived, here’s what we know about the mystery around it.

Library Manager Myles Cooper has been racking his brain for an explanation of how the book found its way home. In a fire after the earthquake that destroyed 200,000 volumes, how could this book emerge more than a century later?

Was it checked out? Was it rescued from the rubble of another fire? Was it hidden somewhere?

Cooper is certain the book is from the institute in San Francisco, evident by a stamp and a date: Dec. 10, 1874. Schwed, a collector, said his first instinct was to research the owner.

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Agnes Quigley is inked at the top of the book’s first page.
In 1898, a woman by the name Agnes Quigley posted an advertisement in the San Francisco Call and Post newspaper, Schwed said.

The advertisement is about a young woman and reads, “From East, wishes situation as chambermaid and carer of children.”

There’s no way to prove whether the two Quigleys are the same person, Schwed said. But he has two theories as to how Quigley could have gotten hold of the book. She could have checked the book out. Or Quigley somehow stumbled upon the charred book and inscribed her name inside.

Both theories are plausible, Cooper agreed. He added another theory: There was a “lot of looting in San Francisco during the 1906 earthquake.”

“Echoes of the Foot-Hills” isn’t the sole survivor, though. Other volumes, like archival and reference materials, were in a safe at another location during the earthquake, Cooper said. Another book, “Marriages, Rights, Customs and Ceremonies,” survived and was in circulation until 2001.

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Now, the soot-spotted book is unavailable for checkout. It is locked in a display case beneath an 1854 map of San Francisco that also survived the earthquake. Nearby, an oversize atlas bears drawings of the earthquake’s activity created by pendulums.

“It’s really kind of like a library fantasy,” Cooper said. “It’s really magical.”

In San Francisco’s Financial District, the Mechanics’ Institute stands two stories tall. The membership organization is home to the nation’s longest-running chess club, writers’ groups and classes.

In the 1850s, the institute was established to provide gold miners with an education. Decades later, in January 1906, the institute merged with the Mercantile Library to form what was the city’s largest library. Three months later, the Institute lost that title.

“Our library was destroyed in ways that many other buildings were not. I mean, it completely fell down,” Cooper said. “There’s only one remaining wall and really only one brick story left, and everything was burned.”

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The institute, like San Francisco, began discussing a plan to rebuild, Cooper said. They collected thousands of dollars and books in donations. Many of those books are related to architecture, mining and railroads – the things San Francisco needed to rebuild.

“It’s definitely part of the DNA of San Francisco to rebuild and rethink things, and that we always have a place to save history, and people’s stories won’t be lost,” Cooper said. “We will be a place that can have the capacity to contain those stories.”

As a longtime San Franciscan, Cooper said the earthquake’s story is kept alive through word-of-mouth. Today, no witnesses of the earthquake and fire are alive.

The institute plans to put acid-free cardstock inside the book to explain its story. It’s common practice for an owner to write their name inside an old book. “Echoes of the Foot-Hills” has had three owners in its more than 150-year lifespan: Quigley, Schwed and the institute.

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Giants reassign 3B coach Borg; Wotus named interim replacement

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Giants reassign 3B coach Borg; Wotus named interim replacement


DENVER — The Giants announced on Friday that they have reassigned third-base coach Hector Borg to a new role within their player development staff. Ron Wotus will fill the third-base coaching role on an interim basis until the organization identifies a permanent replacement.
Borg has made several questionable calls from



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Driver Arrested After Pedestrian Killed, Three Injured In Mission District Crash

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Driver Arrested After Pedestrian Killed, Three Injured In Mission District Crash


One pedestrian died at the hospital and three others suffered non-life-threatening injuries after a driver struck them in SF’s Mission District earlier this week.

The San Francisco Police Department arrested a driver suspected of fatally striking four pedestrians in the area of 16th and Mission streets Monday morning, as KRON4 reports.

Officers responded to the scene at 12:13 am and found medics treating one pedestrian with life-threatening injuries. The person later died at a nearby hospital, and three other pedestrians sustained non-life-threatening injuries.

The driver was reportedly detained soon after the collision. The department has not announced what charges they will receive.

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“We hold the victim and their loved ones in our thoughts, and grieve this loss of life on San Francisco’s streets,” said Jodie Medeiros, executive director for Walk SF, in a release. “We all deserve to be able to get around safely in our city.”

This marks the ninth pedestrian death in San Francisco this year. It’s also the second such death in the Mission, following the tragic death of local musician Danielle Spillman at Mission Street and South Van Ness Avenue in April, as SFist reported previously.

Four pedestrians were killed throughout the month of March, including deaths in Chinatown, the Financial District, North Beach, and the Outer Mission. In late February, a two-year-old was run over in Mission Bay.

Anyone with information may contact the SFPD at 415-575-4444 or text “TIP411,” beginning with “SFPD.”

Wife of SoMa Hit-and-Run Suspect Says ‘My Husband Is Not a Villain’

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