San Francisco, CA
Experts: Muni tax likely to pass; regional transit measure a toss-up
Even as voters cite affordability as their top concern, San Franciscans may still be willing to raise their own taxes.
Political experts say a proposed $183 million parcel tax to fund Muni is likely to pass with ease, highlighting the city’s enduring support for public transit. But a separate regional sales tax measure to fund BART, Muni, and 10 other Bay Area transit agencies faces a far more uncertain path. Both measures, slated for the November ballot, require a simple majority to pass.
Essentially, the pundits say, San Francisco voters are so tax-happy and engaged that even with a measure-heavy ballot, they’ll likely support the two measures regardless of affordability concerns. According to campaign expert Jason Overman, San Francisco has better voter turnout for off-cycle elections than other U.S. cities, meaning tax opponents will be less likely to steer the results.
Combine that with well-founded fears that the demise of public transit would lead to tougher commutes and freeway congestion, and you have the makings of a victory at the ballot box.
“I don’t think a new tax [in San Francisco] has failed directly in years,” said political consultant Jim Ross.
However, few experts feel confident the regional tax measure will pass, as it must have the support of voters in five Bay Area counties. Contra Costa County, which is far less favorable to new taxes, was singled out by analysts.
Contra Costa County has only once passed a sales tax to fund transportation, Measure J in 2004, according to John Whitehurst, a partner at BMWL Public Affairs. Measure J had a much higher two-thirds majority threshold.
What experts are tracking as a signal for the transportation sales tax’s prospects is whether Contra Costa voters pass a sales tax (opens in new tab) of five-eighths of a cent in June.
“I think we’re gonna get some tea leaves here to read in June,” Whitehurst said.
What the Muni tax and regional measure have in common is that the consequences of degraded public transit are easy for voters across the socioeconomic spectrum to comprehend. Even if someone doesn’t use public transportation, worsening traffic on Bay Area freeways affects the people they rely on — like their children’s teachers or their employees.
“I think the transit stuff is much more visceral,” Overman said.
According to SF State political science professor Jason McDaniel, both efforts are bolstered by a widespread feeling among Democratic voters, who dominate the Bay Area, that turnout is key to taking back power from Republicans in Washington.
But McDaniel highlighted a latent risk of tax fatigue as public agencies continue to ask voters for funding. He pointed to a slice of affluent, liberal homeowners who generally back taxes for public services but may feel “cross‑pressured” by perceptions that government agencies and unions waste money.
“If I had to predict, I think these things are going to pass, but some of the support might be softer than what we’ve seen in past years,” McDaniel said.
Sonoma State political science professor David McCuan said he’s cautiously optimistic about the passage of both measures but predicts that the margin of success will be narrow. A high turnout in November could be key to the success of the regional measure.
“That puts the Bay Area regional measure in a place that is slightly better than a coin flip on the positive side,” he said. “But barely.”
McCuan noted that an effective campaign can shift voter support by roughly three to six percentage points in either direction.
On the parcel tax, that campaign appears to be in pole position. Mayor Daniel Lurie has made himself the face of the initiative, and it has broad-based support from the Board of Supervisors and a laundry list of labor groups. Early union support is a promising sign, as strong campaigns need funding and endorsements, and unions can help deliver both, McCuan said.
“All signs point to success, but there’s wiggle room within the margin of error,” he said.
The San Francisco Giants are headed even farther south today as they begin a weekend road series against the Miami Marlins.
Taking the mound for the Giants will be noted bigot Landen Roupp. Roupp enters today’s game with a 4.24 ERA, 2.96 FIP, with 82 strikeouts to 32 walks in 74.1 innings pitched. His last start was in Friday night’s 5-1 loss to the Chicago Cubs, in which Roupp clearly cared more about proselytizing than he did about winning, allowing four runs on four hits with five strikeouts and two walks in four and two thirds innings.
As of the time this is being written on Thursday, the Marlins have not announced a starting pitcher for today’s game and I am off today (Happy Juneteenth!). But you can head on down to the comments for the most up to date information.
Who: San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins
Where: loanDepot park, Miami, Florida
Regional broadcast: NBC Sports Bay Area
Radio: KNBR 680 AM/104.5 FM, KSFN 1510 AM
SAN FRANCISCO – An 8-year veteran of the San Francisco Police Department received a hero’s sendoff Thursday afternoon as she was discharged from San Francisco General Hospital, less than three weeks after surviving a life-threatening shooting in the line of duty.
First time opening up to the public
The backstory:
Officer Brittney Taylor was greeted by a formation of first responders clapping to show their appreciation and respect as she emerged from the hospital in a wheelchair.
The discharge marks the first time Taylor has spoken publicly since the violent encounter on the night of May 31. According to newly released police body-camera footage, Taylor was shot in the upper leg and foot by a robbery suspect following a pursuit that ended in San Francisco’s Bayview neighborhood.
“I almost lost my life,” Taylor said. “It’s the little things you take for granted. Holy crap, you get to sit back and look at the big picture.”
When asked if she felt any fear during the incident, Taylor admitted she did that night, though not in the moments leading up to it.
“I knew what could happen,” she said, describing the entire ordeal as an eye-opener. “It is difficult to think about it. You replay it, and it absolutely causes me to lose sleep.”
Credit where credit is due
Dig deeper:
Taylor credited the hospital’s medical team, specifically trauma surgeon Dr. Andre Campbell, with saving her life.
However, Dr. Campbell emphasized that the quick actions of Taylor’s fellow officers at the scene played a critical role in her survival.
Instead of waiting for an ambulance, officers recognized the severity of her injuries, placed her into a patrol car, and rushed her directly to the hospital.
“Which was great,” Dr. Campbell said.
Taylor also highlighted the deep bond shared within her “close-knit police family.”
A squad of female officers and their commanding sergeant have maintained a constant presence at the hospital to offer continuous support throughout her stay.
The native San Franciscan expressed that she has no regrets and hopes her experience will encourage other officers to do their best.
“I love the city,” Taylor said. “I don’t like it when people come to my city and destroy it or hurt the citizens here. That takes a toll on me. I’m going to do something about it.”
The road to recovery
What’s next:
When asked how she would respond to people calling her a hero, Taylor remained humble.
“It’s my job. I was doing my job that night. I’m glad to be put in that position of being a hero.”
Following her release, Taylor received a full police escort as she headed home.
While she notes that her full recovery could take anywhere from six months to a year, she remains resolute about her future.
“You gotta let me put my uniform back on and get back out there,” Taylor said, adding that she has no hesitation about continuing her career. “Honestly, no. I got to slow it down. I have time now.”
The Source: Interview with SFPD Officer Brittney Taylor
SAN FRANCISCO (KRON) — San Francisco District Attorney Brooke Jenkins announced multiple hate crime charges, as well as assault and vandalism charges against an Oakland man for an incident that happened in the Castro District last month.
On Thursday afternoon, Hans Haken pleaded not guilty to one felony count of assault with a deadly weapon, one count of assault with force likely to cause great bodily injury, one count of vandalism, one count of hit-and-run, and one count of reckless driving.
Prosecutors also allege each of the felony assault counts was a hate crime.
“In San Francisco, we have zero tolerance for any hate, hateful acts, certainly that cross the criminal line, and we will do everything that we can to protect our residents from these types of incidents,” said Jenkins at a Thursday afternoon news conference.
It was on May 16, around 5:30 p.m., when prosecutors say Haken spray-painted a homophobic slur on the wall next to Chartreuse by Roje, a gay-owned floral boutique in San Francisco’s Castro District.
“It was a reminder that even though we’re here in Castro, San Francisco, we live in this well-protected bubble that we have created very passionately and strongly, that that can still happen,” said Jeffrey Dumlao, the owner of Chartreuse by Roje. “If anything, that is what’s scary, that it happened here in broad daylight of all times.”
Dumlao says his store had already closed by that time, but Justin Donnelly, who lives above the store, heard the spray-painting and came down to confront the man and tell him to stop.
“He just became very agitated,” Donnelly said. “I tried to remain calm and just tell him, like, sir, you know, I don’t, I don’t, I’m not involved in any of that. I’m just, I live here, right, and this is, this is my home, and you know, this is vandalism.”
Donnelly says when he took a picture of Haken’s license plate, Haken got in the car and tried to run him over. Then, prosecutors say he got out of the car and punched Donnelly in the jaw while uttering homophobic slurs.
“I’m definitely doing a lot better than I was. It’s been, I don’t know, a month or so,” Donnelly said.
He says the incident has shaken him, but he’s been lifted up by the community’s support and law enforcement.
“A lot of people have said, ‘oh my god, I can’t believe something like this could happen in San Francisco, of all places.’ And the fact is that something like this can happen anywhere, but in San Francisco, we don’t stand for it, and we deal with it, so, so that makes me feel good,” Donnelly said.
In announcing the charges, Jenkins pointed out the climate in this country has become more hostile to the LGBTQ community. She says that makes it even more important for elected officials to protect that community, just like they do every other community.
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