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Opinion: Disengaged voters will decide the 2024 presidential election

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Opinion: Disengaged voters will decide the 2024 presidential election


On Tuesday, the presidential election finally takes place. When it comes to what led to the outcome, a case can be made that political pundits on the left and right have got it all wrong. That’s because their expertise makes them uniquely unqualified to understand disengaged voters. Political pundits are like sportswriters trying to fathom why some people pay no attention to the Super Bowl. Yet disengaged voters will likely determine the winner. Why? Because these are the only voters still up for grabs.

Engaged voters have already decided who they’ll vote for. Some decided based on ideology (liberal or conservative). Others decided based on group interest (labor status, ethnicity, gender, religion). Some decided based on how they answered the question: Are you better or worse off than you were four years ago?

So who are the disengaged? These are undecided potential voters who just don’t care about politics. As a result, they process information about campaigns in ways that are unfathomable to those fully engaged.

In July, YouGov reported crunched polling numbers from a survey to identify characteristics of “disengaged” voters. The disengaged consume little political news; they are largely ignorant of political issues. They are less likely than others to actually vote. They tend to be “on average younger, more likely to be women, more likely to be Black or Hispanic, less educated, and have a lower household income than the average engaged American voter.”

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Scientific models suggest that people take in information and make decisions using different mental processes. To varying degrees, engaged voters process information systematically. They connect issues together through mental links. Because of these intricate connections, the engaged decide early and are unlikely to change their minds. Changing their minds on one issue means changing their minds on others.

The disengaged take a different approach. They do what scientists call “heuristic” processing. They rely on peripheral cues that have very little to do with issues and candidate qualifications. For example, physical appearance of candidates can sway the disengaged. Research shows that people tend to like others who are physically attractive. If one doesn’t care much about politics, then appearance could serve as a basis for choosing. Using stereotypic notions of “good looks,” John F. Kennedy was better looking than Richard Nixon. Kamala Harris is better looking than Donald Trump.

Research dating from the 1940s shows that many disengaged voters depend on more engaged voters for advice (two-step flow). They also tend to take advice from people they admire, regardless of political expertise.

Arguably, this is why Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Harris could prove so impactful. After the Sept. 10 debate, the singer posted her endorsement on Instagram. According to Axios, Swift has 283 million Instagram followers. The Instagram post inspired 338,000 Swifties to visit Vote.gov, the federal voter registration website, during the 15 hours after her post.

One can only speculate how many Swifties are young women that YouGov identified as politically disengaged. Whether Swifties actually registered and will vote is also subject to speculation. Historically, celebrity endorsements don’t seem to improve a candidate’s chances. Ask Hillary Clinton. Normally, debates don’t have much impact either. But this is no normal campaign. Ask Joe Biden. In a close race, a percentage point boost from the disengaged in swing states could decide the election outcome.

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Dozier, Ph.D., is professor emeritus in the School of Journalism and Media Studies at San Diego State University. He lives in Encinitas.



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Daily Business Report: May 14, 2026, San Diego Metro Magazine

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Daily Business Report: May 14, 2026, San Diego Metro Magazine


Gloria relents on December Nights, some community cuts in budget revise, but arts funds still on chopping block

by City News Service | Times of San Diego

Some library and recreation center hours and December Nights support were restored in Mayor Todd Gloria’s revised Fiscal Year 2027 Budget Wednesday, but city funding for the arts could still be gutted.

Gloria was joined by civic leaders Wednesday morning to announce changes to his initial proposed budget, released last month. He added “targeted protections” of certain neighborhood priorities and maintained police and fire service levels while arriving at a balanced budget.

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Proposed additions include protecting rec center and library hours in Council Districts 4, 8 and 9, represented by Henry L. Foster III, Vivian Moreno and Sean Elo-Rivera, respectively.

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The Learning Curve: He’s San Diego Unified’s Next Trustee – No Race Needed

By Jakob McWhinney | Voice of San Diego

The primary is still nearly a month away. The general election is even further out. Still, it’s already clear that Hayden Gore will be San Diego Unified’s next trustee. That’s because he’s running unopposed to fill the seat left open by current Trustee Cody Petterson, who opted not to run for re-election.

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Though he’s a political newcomer, Gore was the early choice of San Diego Unified’s union. In fact, he was recruited by the former president of the San Diego Education Association to run for the seat.

It’s not hard to see why. He’s an avowed progressive and a longtime educator who led the then-newly formed union at High Tech High to its first contract. Exactly the kind of resume that would have SDEA champing at the bit.

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Join Us Friday, July 17, 2026 for the 11th Annual USD School of Law – RJS LAW Tax Institute

By RJS Law

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The Institute is the premier annual tax event in San Diego. The region’s top tax attorneys, enrolled agents (EAs), certified public accountants (CPAs), law and business school professors will discuss topics including government loan relief and abuses, challenges in cross-border transactions, and practical and realistic solutions in trust, estate planning, and tax matters.

DATE AND TIME

Friday, July 17, 2026 from 8:00 a.m. to 7:30 p.m.

LOCATION

Joan B. Kroc Institute for Peace and Justice, Theatre

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5555 Marian Way, San Diego, CA 92110

EVENT STATUS

Open to the Public

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San Diego library funding partially restored in mayor’s revised budget proposal

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San Diego library funding partially restored in mayor’s revised budget proposal


SAN DIEGO (KGTV) – For many families, libraries are a safe space for kids after school and a place to study.

After community outcry, the city is scaling down some of its proposed budget cuts, bringing the original $6.3 million in cuts to libraries down to $4.8 million.

Patrick Stewart, CEO of Library Foundation SD, said the change is a step in the right direction.

“We are very pleased. I think this moves the needle in the right direction.”

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Mayor Gloria’s revised budget proposal restores funding focused on youth-centered programs, which includes bringing back library hours in Council Districts 4, 8, and 9 — those in underserved communities.

“This is City Heights and San Isidro, Barrio Logan, and Oak Park, and traditionally, those are smaller branches. And the kids and the families in those communities frankly, they use their library very differently than in a lot of other communities, and it’s a lifeline to them,” said Stewart.

The City Heights library is among those included in the mayor’s revised budget to restore funding. While library officials say this is a good first step, there is still concern about long-term financial challenges.

In order to voice concerns about how deep the cuts go, the Library Foundation has created a way for supporters to express that through postcards. Thousands of cards have been mailed directly to Mayor Gloria and councilmembers.

Stewart said the effort is making an impact.

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“They’re seeing that this is hundreds and hundreds of people that are taking this very seriously, so it helps them to know immediately what their community feels like when it comes to these proposed cuts,” he added.

The restored funding would also keep Monday hours at Carmel Valley Library and protect the North Clairemont Library branch from closure.

Library officials remain optimistic as the revised budget heads back to the City Council.

This story was reported on-air by a journalist and has been converted to this platform with the assistance of AI. Our editorial team verifies all reporting on all platforms for fairness and accuracy.





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Suspect in fatal Barrio Logan shooting arrested

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Suspect in fatal Barrio Logan shooting arrested


A man suspected of a fatal shooting in Barrio Logan was arrested Tuesday.

Benito Garcia Jr., 31, was arrested in the 3600 block of Grand Avenue in San Marcos at about 1 p.m. Tuesday for allegedly gunning down 64-year-old Raul Torres near the east end of the Coronado Bridge, according to the San Diego Police Department.

Patrol officers responding to an anonymous report of a shooting found the mortally wounded victim on a sidewalk in the 2000 block of National Avenue, near Chicano Park, shortly after 10 p.m. last Tuesday. Torres died at the scene, SDPD Lt. Lou Maggi said.

Police have not disclosed a suspected motive for the slaying.

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Garcia was booked into San Diego Central Jail on suspicion of first- degree murder. He was being held without bail pending arraignment, scheduled for Thursday afternoon.



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