The USC Trojans have opened as a landing favourite towards Oregon State on the highway this Saturday. That’s a wholesome quantity of respect for USC. Should you notice that home-field benefit is price round six factors, this implies USC would have been favored by 13 factors if it had hosted the Beavers this 12 months.

In 2021, Oregon State waltzed into the Coliseum and throttled the Trojans, 45-27. This was the primary time Oregon State had overwhelmed USC in Los Angeles since 1960. The Trojans are already so revered that they’re anticipated to win on the highway towards a staff which owned them a 12 months in the past and has the makings of a Pac-12 title contender. If USC wins by 10 factors, it can have engineered a 28-point turnaround from final 12 months’s 18-point loss to the Beavers.

Oregon State is 3-0, having received on the highway towards the identical Fresno State staff USC defeated at residence on Saturday. OSU head coach Jonathan Smith is mendacity within the weeds, ready to spring an ambush. For therefore many causes, this sport is a gigantic problem for Lincoln Riley and USC. If he wins this sport, it is going to be an enormous achievement … and if he loses, the outlook for the 2022 season will develop into rather a lot worse.

No, this sport shouldn’t decide the longer arc of the USC story beneath Lincoln Riley. This sport received’t damage the outlook for 2023 or 2024, however it’s the key take a look at of the 2022 season, a sport which shapes what is feasible for October and November, which is able to inform us the place the Trojans play in December or early January.

Let’s have a look at the various causes this sport is the largest problem for USC thus far within the early levels of the Lincoln Riley period.

OREGON STATE IS THE AMBUSH ARTIST IN CORVALLIS

Sep 25, 2008; Corvallis, OR, USA; Southern California Trojans receiver Patrick Turner (1) is tackled by Oregon State Beavers linebacker Greg Laybourn (44), left, and cornerback Brandon Hughes (36) at Reser Stadium. Oregon State defeated Southern California 27-21. Necessary Credit score: Kirby Lee/Picture of Sport-USA TODAY Sports activities

Bear in mind the Pete Carroll groups of 2006 and 2008? They misplaced in Corvallis. USC’s goals have been dashed a number of instances in Reser Stadium. The Trojans want to overcome this historic graveyard.

LEFT TACKLE

TUCSON, ARIZONA – NOVEMBER 14: Offensive lineman Courtland Ford #74 of the USC Trojans warms up earlier than the PAC-12 soccer sport towards the Arizona Wildcats at Arizona Stadium on November 14, 2020 in Tucson, Arizona. (Picture by Christian Petersen/Getty Photos)

Courtland Ford dressed for the Fresno State sport however didn’t play. This would appear to point he’ll be capable of play at Oregon State, however he’s probably not going to be at full energy. The identical seems to be true for Bobby Haskins. We noticed what occurs when this offensive line has to go deep into the depth chart. Mason Murphy was not prepared for Fresno State. Ford and Haskins have to carry down the fort at left deal with. In the event that they present indicators of weak spot early within the sport, Lincoln Riley needs to be fast to regulate his play choice, his play combination, and the way he provides Caleb Williams a consolation zone. Let’s speak extra about that sequence of challenges right here:

QUICK PASSES

Sep 17, 2022; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) reacts towards the Fresno State Bulldogs] within the first half at United Airways Discipline at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Necessary Credit score: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports activities

If the cross rush is an issue for the left aspect of USC’s line, Riley must get the ball out shortly and have Williams throw a lot of screens and quick passes to his receivers. At worst, these passes will achieve 5 yards. At finest, Jordan Addison or Mario Williams can run after the catch and create large performs.

OREGON STATE’S TACTICS

The Beavers absolutely seen that Fresno State sat again in protection and took away the deep ball from USC. That is the defensive method which bothered Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma. Iowa State was particularly good at forcing OU to be affected person and constant. We talked about this on The Riley Information.

Caleb Williams have to be affected person on this sport. He can’t attempt to do an excessive amount of.

NUMBERS GAME

Run the ball or cross the ball? That’s the overly simplistic query followers typically being to discussions of the right way to assault a protection. Remember that a display cross is principally an prolonged operating play. The identical for a fast hitch cross. It’s an prolonged handoff exterior the tackles.

The true take a look at for Caleb Williams — and for Lincoln Riley as a play-caller — is to establish what number of defenders Oregon State places within the deal with field on the snap and alter the decision accordingly. If OSU goes to take a seat again in protection, run the ball. If OSU dares USC to run and hundreds up the field, that’s when USC can take pictures down the sphere. It’s all about seeing how the Beavers alter.

HOLDING THEIR CARDS

Dec 19, 2020; Corvallis, Oregon, USA; Oregon State Beavers head coach Jonathan Smith walks the sideline throughout the first half towards the Arizona State Solar Devils at Reser Stadium. Necessary Credit score: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports activities

Oregon State’s dashing assault is the place the Beavers count on to do properly, however within the first three weeks of 2022, the OSU passing sport has been extra on the coronary heart of the Beaver offense. Plainly head coach Jonathan Smith is holding his playing cards near the vest, ready to spring one thing on USC. Lincoln Riley and Alex Grinch have to be prepared of their movie research. They want to take a look at what Oregon State has executed in earlier seasons to gash USC on the bottom. In addition they want to check 2021 movie to establish extra detailed packages and formations. Oregon State performed Montana State in Week 3. The Beavers have been very vanilla in that sport. The chess match when it comes to not displaying an excessive amount of early within the season, after which busting out new appears or wrinkles in Week 4, might be an enormous a part of this sport.

OREGON STATE BLITZ

It could appear that Oregon State ought to observe the Fresno State plan of sitting again in protection and taking away the deep shot from Jordan Addison and Mario Williams, but when the Beavers do determine to blitz, Caleb Williams must be ready. What typically works towards a blitz: Throw within the route of the blitz, to the realm vacated by the blitzing linebacker or security.

TRAVIS DYE

Sep 17, 2022; Los Angeles; USC Trojans operating again Travis Dye (26) celebrates after scoring a landing towards the Fresno State Bulldogs. Necessary Credit score: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports activities

Oregon State is aware of Travis Dye extraordinarily properly, since Dye performed at Oregon earlier than transferring to USC. Lincoln Riley has an opportunity to make use of Dye as a decoy and draw the eye of Oregon State’s protection to arrange varied performs and counters.

CALEB WILLIAMS AS A RUNNING QB

USA TODAY Sports activities / Knowledge Skrive

Caleb Williams utilizing the learn choice was an adjustment to Fresno State’s potential to generate a cross rush, but it surely additionally represented an try to provide Oregon State one thing to take a look at on movie. If the Beavers are involved with Caleb Williams as a runner, that can create alternatives to throw downfield towards a stacked deal with field.

PRE-SNAP MOTION

On one of many fourth downs USC transformed towards Fresno State, Caleb Williams was within the shotgun. We hate shotguns on fourth down and quick yardage, however in case you’re going to make use of the shotgun, pre-snap movement is crucial. Riley put a person in movement earlier than the snap, going to the left. Caleb ran a learn choice play to the suitable aspect and obtained a primary down towards a Fresno State protection which hesitated, partly due to the attention sweet supplied by the person in movement to the left. Anticipate to see Riley do that extra typically towards Oregon State. Sooner or later, we must always count on the movement man — possibly Addison, possibly Mario Williams — to get the handoff or pitch on an end-around.

CHANCE NOLAN

Sep 17, 2022; Portland, Oregon, USA; Oregon State Beavers quarterback Likelihood Nolan (10) throws the ball throughout the second half towards the Montana State Bobcats at Windfall Park. Necessary Credit score: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports activities

Likelihood Nolan led a last-minute landing drive towards Fresno State, throwing the ball precisely and constantly. Nolan has grown as a passer, which leads us to surprise if Oregon State will throw first to arrange the run. This may not be the traditional OSU method beneath Jonathan Smith, however USC needs to be ready for it.

RED-ZONE DEFENSE

Sep 25, 2021; Los Angeles; Oregon State WR Tre’Shaun Harrison (0) beats USC CB Chris Steele (8) and runs to the tip zone. Necessary Credit score: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports activities

USC’s red-zone protection has been nice, however the general efficiency of the protection has been spotty. The massive concern: If groups preserve transferring the ball towards this protection, in some unspecified time in the future they’re going to complete drives. Pink-zone percentages will even out. USC has to seek out methods of not stepping into so many red-zone conditions (which don’t contain giving up lengthy TD performs).

THIRD DOWNS

USC transformed three third downs and three fourth downs on its first three drives towards Fresno State. USC confronted six totally different third downs on its first three drives and ultimately transformed them, both on third or fourth down. USC will want that degree of clutch play. The Trojans merely can’t surrender too many possessions towards an opponent which is constructed to manage the ball and preserve Caleb Williams on the sideline.

DEFENSIVE TIMETABLE

One large motive this sport is such an enormous problem for USC is that the protection remains to be studying the right way to play beneath Alex Grinch. If this sport was in late October, the Trojans would have a significantly better understanding of the right way to perform higher as a unit. The late-September date takes time away from USC’s protection. Can sufficient gamers take sufficient steps ahead that the protection can decrease harm? This can be a central query for Sept. 24 in Corvallis.

SCOREBOARD QUESTIONS

USC has had multi-possession leads within the third quarter of each sport to this point this season. What if a sport is tied or entails a three- or four-point margin within the third quarter? USC’s protection has had a cushion — a safety blanket — via three video games. Having an 11- or 14- or 27-point lead definitely reduces stress for a protection. If the sport is way nearer, how will USC’s protection reply?

FOURTH-QUARTER PRESSURE

Associated to the merchandise above, USC has not been in a detailed sport within the fourth quarter this season. How will the Trojans react if this sport is de facto tight within the ultimate minutes? Lincoln Riley’s potential to create prime efficiency in worrying conditions, and impress upon his gamers the necessity to rise to the event, might be examined.

CALEB WILLIAMS HEISMAN SCENE-SETTER

What if Oregon State leads by 4 factors with three minutes left, and USC will get possession of the ball? What is going to Caleb Williams do? This might be the sport through which the Trojans’ quarterback confronts his first actually profound second at USC.

THE WASHINGTON FACTOR

Sep 17, 2022; Seattle; Washington’s Kamren Fabiculanan (13) defends a cross towards Michigan State’s Daniel Barker (9) at Husky Stadium. Necessary Credit score: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports activities

Washington may be a Pac-12 title contender, one thing we didn’t count on within the offseason. The Oregon State sport is due to this fact additional essential for USC, as a result of Washington doesn’t play USC or Utah and — within the occasion of a USC loss — would have a extra favorable path to the Pac-12 Championship Recreation.

USC DEFENSIVE LINE

USC’s protection has not given up giant numbers of factors, however we all know the defensive position and its run suits haven’t been nice. Can this unit piece collectively a fairly competent efficiency towards its hardest opponent up to now within the 2022 season?

SECONDARY IS PRIMARY

The USC secondary nonetheless hasn’t been burned for an extended landing cross this season. If Oregon State exhibits a run formation, the safeties should be ready to not get overwhelmed excessive on a play pretend and a deep shot.

TALENT MEETS TIMELINESS

USC’s goal-line stand late within the Fresno State sport was an inspiring second. That mentioned, it was nonetheless a 28-point sport. The stakes weren’t excessive. Can USC make these sorts of powerful performs in a detailed sport, when the result hangs within the stability or at the very least might be formed by what the Trojans do?

THE LIMITS OF 2022

Lincoln Riley has, previously at Oklahoma, misplaced a sport early within the season earlier than adjusting and rebounding within the second half of the season. Possibly he can do this at USC if the Trojans lose to Oregon State. Nevertheless, Riley has much less depth this 12 months than he did at any level in his Oklahoma profession. The bounds of 2022 imply that shedding an early-season sport won’t be overcome the way in which Riley overcame early losses with the Sooners.

CONFIRMATION

Sep 3, 2022; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts within the second half towards the Rice Owls at United Airways Discipline at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Necessary Credit score: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports activities

Nobody can have a look at USC and critically doubt that ultimately, Lincoln Riley will determine all the pieces out and get this program again to a prime degree. It’s not a matter of if, however when. The massive query has at all times been if USC can shortly restore itself and have a profitable season this 12 months, in 2022. In 2023, USC can have much more depth. The weaknesses on the roster won’t exist to the extent that they do now. Riley will ultimately win large right here at USC. This Oregon State sport ought to inform us if Riley can win large in Yr 1, and get his restoration mission executed forward of schedule. We’ll see on Saturday evening.