What up Spartans! It’s a short week for the football team so we will be accelerating our coverage for you. On Friday, the Green & White travels to Eugene, Oregon, to take on Big Ten newcomer, the Oregon Ducks. Obviously, this is the first time these two squads face off as conference foes, but there is history between the two programs. The Spartans and Ducks have met on the gridiron seven times previously, including three times in the past decade, most recently in an offense-starved Redbox Bowl on the last day of 2018 (Oregon won 7-6). To help us take a closer look at the current version of the Ducks, the man known simply as Badwater from Addicted To Quack joined me to answer a few questions. Let’s see what he had to say.
TOC: Welcome to the Big Ten. What were your initial thoughts when you heard the news that Oregon was moving to a new conference? How did you think the Ducks would adjust to life in the Big Ten? What were your expectations for them this year?
BW: I expected that Oregon would go to the B1G if given the opportunity. Sentiments aside, the Pac-12 was a failure as a conference – (former commissioners) Larry Scott was a failure, George Kliavkoff was a failure, and the B1G move was inevitable. Oregon athletics have been very much in the black for many years, unlike the other former Pac-12 additions to the B1G. See, it’s not just money from Phil Knight and Division Street at work – Athletic Director Rob Mullens runs a tight ship and he’s very good at what he does. Oregon does not need to come in with a full payout to 2030. What they needed, and got, was national brand exposure, and that’s what the move to the Big Ten offered.
The Ducks got what they wanted – exposure – and they will thrive in the B1G. The expectation is that they will make the playoff this year, and we’ll see what happens. No one is looking invulnerable this year, and I don’t think anyone is going to be surprised if Alabama, Georgia, Texas, Ohio State…or maybe even Oregon…wins it all this year.
TOC: Oregon came into this season as one of the popular picks for the national championship. But the Ducks did not look like that team in their first two games, struggling against Idaho and then just getting by Boise State. What was the problem in those two games? What have they been doing better these past two games, big wins over Oregon State and UCLA?
BW: The answer to this question boils down to the offensive line. Our Addicted To Quack site editor, hythloday, has 15 years of film study that demonstrates how a successful offensive line is created, and unlike all other position players, an offensive line has to have its own development culture and, by and large, cannot be plugged in from the transfer portal. The success of the Oregon offensive line is 20+ years in the making. It continues to be a developmental project, in that the coaches actively develop OL players.
My personal take is that the OL has had some struggles with rotation and communication. Both OL and DL rotate players in and out, and where other teams may have a starting 5 that they primarily stick with, Oregon has a starting 8 or so that rotate in and out, on both lies. Injuries complicate this ideal, and some injuries have affected the Oregon lines, but more so with the offense than the defense. The struggles with the OL have been with position, performance, and communication. What we’re seeing now, as opposed to the season opener against Idaho, is better communication and coaching.
Boise State has Ashton Jeanty. No one can stop him. He’s my Heisman (so far) pick for a reason; Boise State doesn’t have an OL of NFL starters…no, he gets the yards that he gets on personal effort and talent. I don’t think I’ve ever seen an RB like Jeanty. You can’t stop him, and that’s the story of Oregon’s game against Boise State, and that will be the story of everyone who plays against Boise State this year.
Oregon’s OL is settling in, and I think that will continue against Michigan State. Idaho is a decent team. The Ducks beat them, that is all. The next two weeks will reveal all frauds, be they Oregon or anyone else.
TOC: Bo Nix is off to the NFL. Dillon Gabriel is now the man for the Ducks in his sixth year of college football after 2 seasons at Oklahoma and 3 at Central Florida before that. What do you like about his game? What are his weaknesses? Do you think he will make it to and succeed in the NFL?
BW: I’ll say here what I’ve said before – I do not follow the NFL, and I only have a pedestrian knowledge of things/players in the NFL. I have no idea who can or will succeed in the NFL. That notwithstanding, my wife was married to a former NFL nose tackle, and I know that the Denver Broncos were very much interested in Nix all season last year, so I was not surprised that they picked him. It’s a good fit for him, and Elway is probably the best boss that a QB could be working for.
Gabriel is not quite as accurate as Nix, but I think that’s the product of mainly Gabriel being behind a line that was not as solid as Nix’s OL. Gabriel had been holding on to the ball too long, and he’s largely fixed that. But Dillon Gabriel is close to, but not as good as, Bo Nix. In reality, there are scores of football programs that wish they had the “problems” that Oregon has at the QB position.
TOC: Tell us about your defense. What is your base formation? What is the strongest level? Who is the one guy that opposing teams need to look out for?
BW: Oregon’s head coach is Dan Lanning, who was the defensive coordinator for Georgia’s championship team. What he brought with him is the Mint defense, and the ideology that it’s explosive passing that defeats an opponent, so you eliminate explosive passing…and many times it’s at expense of the (non-explosive) run. If your readers need/want further elaboration, then read hythloday’s extensive reviews or listen to his podcasts at ATQ.
https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2024/5/8/24155018/duck-dive-big-ten-football-2024-preview-compilation
Defense has been, and will be, a strong point this season. I can’t pin one guy as the player you need to watch for, because a great defense has great players on all three levels. I will point to two players: Jordan Birch has been an edge terror and will continue to be. Anyone that watched Oregon’s last two games knows about the secondary and knows that passes have been primarily going against Nikko Reed because no one wants to pass against Jabbar Muhammed. Watch Oregon’s secondary closely and you’ll see that this will be true against the Spartans.
The defensive weakness is at linebacker, but you may not know it when we face Michigan State. Jonathan Smith knows it, however, so watch for how he tries to exploit this weakness. Smith is a very clever coach.
TOC: What is the number one thing Michigan State needs to do in order to come away with a victory in Eugene?
BW: Michigan State needs to have success offensively. It’s not enough to win the turnover battle against Oregon – they will still crush you. The Spartans need to have sustained drives that result in points.
And mind you, Jonathan Smith knows this. He’s been very successful in Autzen, both as a player and a coach. Not all is lost for the Spartans, and even if you lose, Smith is going to make Michigan State better. Believe in that.
TOC: Bonus Question: Predict the final score.
BW: OMG I’m horrible at this. Anyone who has followed my picks on Off Tackle Empire knows that I do a decent job of picking the winner, but I’m awful at the spread. This is why I don’t gamble. Oregon 42, Michigan State 20.
TOC wishes to thank Badwater for his help with this piece. We hope you continue to be horrible at predicting scores.
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