An economic analysis from the University of New Mexico found that developer targets “are likely overstated,” for Santolina, a controversial development on Albuquerque’s far west side, and warrants further study of its potential revenues and potential costs.
UNM’s Bureau of Business and Economic Research further found that under more realistic hypothetical scenarios for housing, population and employment growth, New Mexico governments’ spending to build public facilities and services could outstrip the tax revenues.
Currently the Santolina project is structured to allow tax revenues from Bernalillo County to reimburse development costs through the creation of a Tax Increment Development District (TIDD).
Developers for Santolina are required to show the development will meet a “no net expense provision,” as part of the Planned Communities policy adopted by the county.
Advertisement
UNM researchers said the data was limited in some of the projections, but their findings raised questions about whether the development can realistically meet its stated goals.
“Just based on our results from our study, which is a snapshot, not comprehensive, the county may want to examine the revenues versus costs, in order to evaluate the ‘no new net cost’ criteria of the project,” said Julian Baca, one of the researchers in an interview with Source NM.
The Bernalillo County Commission invited Baca to present the findings for 10 minutes to the commission Tuesday evening.
Commissioner Eric Olivas called the findings “eye-popping,” and said further discussion should occur with the county manager, economic development staff and planning staff.
“The level of public investment to subsidize a private developer is massive, and I don’t see the return on investment for the jobs that are projected to be created,” Olivas said.
Advertisement
He called it a “cautionary tale” in approving economic development agreements, when the county requires further investments in infrastructure.
Commissioner Walt Benson asked who funded the study. It was funded in 2022 from Senate Joint Memorial 3, brought by Sen. Linda Lopez (D-Albuquerque), who represents the district.
Benson asked for “further information,” of what property taxes, which were not part of the analysis, would contribute to reimbursing the developer.
“Trying to make a decision based on a partial [analysis], it’s not fair to us up here,” he said.
Commission chair Barbara Baca said that the council was constrained by time limits, but said future discussions may happen.
Advertisement
“This is a very short time to cover a very large issue, we could do a study session or something like that, where we can really delve into these kinds of very important questions,” Baca said.
“We will continue the conversation,” she concluded.
What is Santolina?
Santolina is a long-debated effort to build a “planned community” over 13,700 acres for a projected 100,000 people (just smaller than Rio Rancho’s current population).
Once a portion of the Atrisco Land Grant, the 21-square miles sandwiched by Interstate 40, 118th Street and Rio Puerco is now owned by developer Western Albuquerque Land Holdings. In the 2015 master plan, the eventual goal is to build 38,000 homes and create 75,000 jobs.
The proposed location for the Santolina project. (Photo courtesy Bernalillo County)
Bernalillo County Commissioners approved the first phase of Santolina planning in June 2015.
Advertisement
There has been no development at Santolina, as several phases of planning need approval.
In 2022, the board unanimously approved two requests from developers; including speeding up the timeline to 30 years, and designated more granular zoning for industrial use in a small portion of the proposed development. The board approved the plans over the objections of the planning commission and residents.
Farmers in the South Valley, community members and environmental groups have opposed the development for nearly a decade, contributing to the Contra Santolina group. Their objections have often centered around the development’s proposed water consumption, which residents said would push farmers out as climate change shrinks water supply from the Rio Grande.
The Bureau of Business and Economic Research report
The developer’s goals for Santolina are more optimistic than historic employment and population growth in Albuquerque suggest.
New Mexico is in the bottom five nationally in terms of population growth in the past ten years, Baca said.
Advertisement
“In terms of forecasts, all the data points to much more conservative growth, housing stock and population,” he said.
The targets set by Santolina developers are potentially way too high.
If Santolina met its stated goals issued to public officials, it would account for 49% of new housing in the area,165% of population growth and 62% of employment, the report found.
Researchers found the most active neighborhoods accounted for “no more than 10-15% of new housing in the last five years,” according to building permit data from the city of Albuquerque.
The report also looked at a case study of Mesa Del Sol, another planned community project, within city limits in southeastern Albuquerque.
Advertisement
While both developments have similarly stated goals, Mesa Del Sol has been in development for the past 18 years. Mesa Del Sol is way below developer expectations, the report found, only accounting for under 2% of housing permits over the last decade in Bernalillo County.
The 56-page report, commissioned by the state legislature, uses data from public sources, such as the New Mexico Department of Transportation, and interviews with public entities, but also a feasibility study commissioned by the developer and details from the master plan.
“In our assessment, recent economic, demographic and housing data do not appear to support the targets sought by Santolina Developers,” the report said in its conclusion, requesting further research on actual costs for government services and potential tax revenues.
The report further notes that if Santolina only meets 20% of its goals (an 80% reduction) it would “reduce the employment, population and potential tax revenues substantially.”
Water infrastructure and roads would be an up-front cost to the developer, Baca said, but portions of those costs could be reimbursed under the tax incentives.
Advertisement
A 2018 estimate from Albuquerque Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority, said water infrastructure to the development would cost $659 million over three phases.
With rising costs in construction and labor, that number could potentially double to $1.3 billion, Baca said.
Officials from the Albuquerque Bernalillo County Water Authority said Thursday that costs on water infrastructure construction spiked by varying degrees over the last few years.
“Depending on the type of work being done we’ve seen a 30% to 70% cost increase over the last five years,” said David Morris, a spokesperson for the water utility.
Baca emphasized this study is independent research.
Advertisement
“We have a reputation, a track record of doing good independent, third-party, objective research,” he said.
Previous commissioners authorized Bernalillo County tax revenues to reimburse the Santolina development, but potentially state tax revenues could be in the mix as well. Part of the fiscal analysis the developer’s commissioned looked at seeking state reimbursements, but that would require additional authorization.
“That would make it not just a Bernalillo County issue, but a statewide issue,” Baca said.
What’s next?
A handful of public commenters urged the commissioners to reconsider further approval of the Santolina development Tuesday night.
Linda Starr, a South Valley resident said the previous commissioners approved the development without checking the facts.
Advertisement
“I hope you will review [Santolina] thoroughly, and please consider the fact that this area should have never been up for development,” she told the commission.
Outside the Bernalillo County Board of Commissioners meeting on Aug. 19, 2022, protesters with the Contra Santolina Working Group chanted, “No WALH, no sprawl!” (Photo by Austin Fisher / Source NM)
The Bernalillo County Commission has adopted two rounds of planning (called a Level A plan and a portion of Level B plans), and county commissioners are the final authority on planning and development on these first levels.
A third, more granular, level of planning called the Site Development Plan (Level C), only needs approval from Bernalillo County staff before any development can happen, according to the Planned Communities policy.
Groups against the project are asking commissioners to reconsider the Bernalillo Comprehensive Plan which guides development and planning in the county. The draft will be presented at a March 19 meeting.
“Taking a harder look at the reliance on Santolina in the comprehensive plan is one thing, ” said Maslyn Locke, a senior staff attorney with the New Mexico Environmental Law Center, who has represented people opposing the project.
“The bigger thing the (Bernalillo County Commission) needs to do is really look at whether or not Santolina should have been approved in the first place.”
Descending the sloping grasslands toward his livestock, Ronald Mascareñas reflected on the bygone days when nearly all the pastures in this lush community were thronged with cattle or sheep and neighbors banded together for a yearly ditch cleaning.
But as the cost of land in these villages in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains rises and more transplants move in — and a younger generation of locals moves out — he sees fewer people practicing a hard-toiling, rural lifestyle along the High Road to Taos.
“Now, there’s only a handful of us with cattle,” said Mascareñas, a Taos County commissioner who lives in Llano, a small community near Peñasco, as he walked the property that has been in his family for generations. “Like I said, things have changed.”
Advertisement
The mountain village of Truchas is one Northern New Mexico community concerned about gentrification and the ongoing housing trends pricing locals out.
Nathan Burton/The New Mexican
Advertisement
Concerns about gentrification in Northern New Mexico are hardly new, but some longtime residents say they feel particularly priced out these days. On the other hand, the real estate market is good for landowners who wish to sell in a region that has long struggled with high rates of unemployment, poverty and population loss.
Real estate signs can be spotted in three prominent communities perched along the scenic N.M. 76, a popular route to Taos for sightseers but a familiar route home for locals. Chimayó, Truchas and Peñasco have seen modest, two-bedroom homes sell for around $400,000 and luxury properties sell for over $1 million.
Up here, land is regularly listed at $20,000 to $30,000 an acre — a sharp rise from previous decades, before locals became “land rich, money poor,” as Mascareñas put it, noting property he purchased at $3,000 an acre in the mid-1990s would likely be priced around $30,000 an acre or more today.
Some longtime residents say prices like this, bringing newcomers with bigger pocketbooks, continue to change the feel of these distinctive villages, long synonymous with big heaps of firewood, hard labor, adobe churches, art studios at high elevations and free-flowing acequias.
Advertisement
“I’m concerned,” Mascareñas said. “My parents were concerned for us, and our generation did halfway decent. We were able to make a living. But it’s the next generation, our grandkids: Unless we are able to give them property to start something up, they’re probably not going to be able to stay in the area.”
The New Mexican
Renting is seldom an option in rural Northern New Mexico.
Residents in Rio Arriba and Taos counties overwhelmingly own their homes, with just 22.2% of Rio Arriba County residents renting and 20.1% of Taos County residents renting, according to a 2023 study from the New Mexico Mortgage Finance Authority.
Advertisement
The study found about 25% of Santa Fe County residents are renters.
‘Affordability for people’
This month, the most expensive house on the market in Peñasco — about 50 miles northeast of Santa Fe on N.M. 75, just south of the highway’s intersection with N.M. 76 — is listed at $3.5 million, according to the website Realtor.com, a digital real estate marketplace that aggregates listings. That property is an outlier in the community, home to some 500 souls not far from the stunning Jicarita and Trampas peaks.
Still, a modest, three-bedroom, two-bathroom home on 1.97 acres, built in 1998, is listed at $339,000 and a four-bedroom house on 0.46 acres is listed at $480,000.
That compares with an average home price in Santa Fe of $625,000 in the first quarter of 2026, according to data from the Santa Fe Association of Realtors. And statewide, the New Mexico Association of Realtors recently reported, the average home was priced at $350,000 in April.
Advertisement
Mascareñas said a majority of the people who are able to buy properties in isolated villages like Peñasco are coming from out of state, paying prices many locals could not conceive of affording. Traditionally, land in these communities — many of which were founded as Spanish land grants — is passed down through generations of families, but some heirs may elect to sell if they are unable to keep it or uninterested in moving back.
Not everyone agrees the current market is pricing locals out.
David Cordova
Advertisement
Courtesy of Sotheby’s International Realty
David Cordova, a real estate agent with Sotheby’s International Realty who has deep family ties to Truchas and was born and raised in Northern New Mexico, said rural communities remain much cheaper than places like Santa Fe and Taos. He noted “there’s a lot of affordable properties out there.”
Citing data collected by the Santa Fe Association of Realtors, Cordova said 12 properties have been listed and closed in Truchas in roughly the last five years ranging from $200,000 up to $673,000.
“I still think there’s an affordability for people,” Cordova said. “I’m all about having our families being able to live there, and you can routinely find properties between $200,000 and $300,000 and $400,000.”
Advertisement
He added, “I think people find themselves deeply rooted in coming back and feeling the soil, feeling the air and having a property in Northern New Mexico. Sales have been really good. The High Road to Taos is where it’s just absolutely stunning, you know.”
‘Hard to maintain’
The old Chimayó post office along N.M. 76 is now about half an acre of concrete wiped clean of any structure; its status as the community’s post office ended in a 2023 Valentine’s Day inferno.
The property has a blue Sotheby’s International Realty sign out front, and an online listing shows it is up for sale for $200,000.
Advertisement
A sign from luxury real estate broker Sotheby’s advertises a home for sale in the village of Truchas on Thursday.
Nathan Burton/The New Mexican
Advertisement
Pat Oviedo-Trujillo, 76, a lifelong resident of Chimayó who can trace her family roots back 12 generations in this region, likened the trends of rising prices in the local real estate market to the plight of characters in the 1974 novel The Milagro Beanfield War.
The Northern New Mexico classic, written by the late Taos County resident John Nichols, is about Hispanic farmers fighting the prospect of cultural and lifestyle loss against the backdrop of a water rights dispute.
“When John Nichols wrote that book, he was very prophetic, because that’s exactly what’s happening right now in these little towns,” Oviedo-Trujillo said.
“I’ll die here,” she said. “But all of a sudden, my property taxes have gone through the roof, and it’s hard to maintain even what you have.”
The five homes listed for sale last week on Realtor.com in the Chimayó area were priced at $1.1 million, $639,000, $439,000, $350,000 and, certainly the most affordable, $60,000.
Advertisement
A housing market analysis from Zillow, a prominent online real estate marketplace, shows a substantial increase in home values in Chimayó since 2018, with values rising from an average of about $222,000 in 2018 to about $335,000 now. Home values in an area generally correspond to home prices.
A 2015 Santa Fe County plan for Chimayó addresses how the residential makeup of the village — known for being home to one of the largest Catholic pilgrimage sites in North America, El Santuario de Chimayó, but also for a decadeslong struggle with addiction — has changed in recent decades, becoming more of a Santa Fe bedroom community.
Until the mid-1900s, land development patterns were largely small, clustered residential settlements on hills above the acequias to preserve large areas of “contiguous irrigated farmland on the gentle slopes and valley floor,” the county plan says.
“As the economy changed and the community became less dependent on farming to support their families,” the plan continues, “land development patterns evolved to accommodate scattered individual home-sites on parcels spread out across the valley.”
‘Way over market’
Advertisement
The only three homes listed for sale in Truchas last week on Realtor.com were priced at $800,000, $1.2 million and $599,000. A bare 1-acre lot in the scenic mountain village is listed at $39,500; 10-acre lots are listed at $339,000 and $225,000.
Truchas is approached by way of winding mountain roads — an idyllic village unfurling near cliff edges about 10 miles from the valley that cradles Chimayó and much higher in altitude — about 8,000 feet in elevation.
Sahd’s hardware store owner and Peñasco fire chief Randy Sahd inside the family-owned and operated business on Thursday in Peñasco. “We’ve become a bedroom community for Los Alamos and Santa Fe,” Sahd said, remarking on the increasing cost of land and properties in the community.
Advertisement
Nathan Burton/The New Mexican
Dio Dominguez, an acequia mayordomo in Truchas, said he has seen properties, such as a 3-acre parcel with an old home on it, sell at prices that shock him. “They’re paying way, way over market, so it’s kind of messing everyone up,” Dominguez said, noting the tax burden this phenomenon can create is the hardest on locals.
These communities, particularly Truchas, have seen a migration of newcomers for some time.
Advertisement
“Not Another Taos — Yet,” read a 2002 headline in The New Mexican about Truchas and the influx of artists moving there as galleries opened along its main street.
“In a town legendary for its hostility toward outsiders, Truchas is a thriving little art town these days,” The New Mexican reported, underscoring changes in Truchas, which means trout in Spanish.
Randy Sahd, a lifelong resident of Peñasco, owns the local hardware store, where locals trickled in Thursday morning to banter a bit and decide which newspapers to purchase. He attributed the cost of land in this region to the “outside influence” and “people who have money” from out of state.
“Who in New Mexico has that kind of money?” said Sahd, the local volunteer fire chief, alluding to some high-priced local properties that have sold.
He suggested many people who own land in the area no longer live there.
Advertisement
The family-owned and operated Sahd’s hardware store in Peñasco has served the mountain village of roughly 500 for over 50 years.
Nathan Burton/The New Mexican
Advertisement
“Everybody up here has ancestral properties, and they live in Utah or Colorado, and they have no interest in keeping their property anymore,” Sahd said. “So, when somebody offers them $20,000 an acre that a couple of years ago was only $4,000 an acre …”
Such an offer can be hard to resist.
“We’ve gone from being a rural community to a bedroom community,” Sahd said.
Embracing outsiders?
Advertisement
These communities, apart from the current real estate situation, have struggled for some time with population loss, particularly as young people migrate to more urban areas. Poverty and limited professional opportunities help drive the outmigration.
Some homes in the villages sit vacant in various states of disuse.
Truchas, at least historically, had a reputation as a community suspicious of outsiders moving in as locals move out.
But Cordova pointed out the parades of hippies in rainbow buses who arrived in places like Dixon and Truchas in the 1960s and ’70s.
Advertisement
The mountain village of Truchas is one Northern New Mexico community concerned about gentrification and the ongoing housing trends pricing locals out.
Nathan Burton/The New Mexican
Advertisement
“People thought at the time, ‘Were they going to clash with the Hispanic culture that was there?’ ” Cordova said. “To be honest with you, a lot of friendships and bonds were made, and people are still there from back in the ’70s.”
He added, “A lot of us here are people who embrace people coming from the outside. We’ve embraced the people who are working at Los Alamos National Labs. We’ve embraced the fact that many of us work our tractors and we work our livestock — and it’s a community that knows how to work hard and appreciates anybody that works hard.”
Can’t keep kids local
Still, life in these communities — with scarce jobs and rising home prices — is increasingly unattainable for young locals, and traditions are disappearing.
“We’re having a hard time keeping our kids local,” Mascareñas said. “If they leave to go get educated, they come back and it’s challenging for them because they can’t afford to buy something.”
Advertisement
He added, “We’re trying to keep these traditions and cultures alive. But if you don’t have the people to do it, you can’t keep them alive, and if you start chopping away at the properties” — subdividing for family members — “they get smaller and smaller. You can’t have cattle, you can’t have horses.”
This week, Mascareñas said the community of Llano no longer has an annual acequia cleaning because there were not enough participants.
Now, the spring cleaning is individualized, and parcientes are responsible for cleaning their own sections of ditch.
“That’s how we’ve had to change, right?” he said. “We no longer gather for ditch cleanings. Everybody does their own property because we can’t gather the amount of people it takes to do it. I remember, as a kid, there used to be 60 to 80 of us cleaning, and I’m talking from my grandpa to my dad to me.”
Advertisement
Rancher and Taos County Commissioner Ronald Mascareñas returns home after feeding his cattle Thursday in Llano.
ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. – A quiet, sunny and warm weekend will bring highs in the 80s to Albuquerque, with hotter weather in parts of southeast New Mexico.
Temps in the high 80s are expected Saturday in the Albuquerque area, with temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to near 90 on Sunday and Monday.
Southeast New Mexico will run hotter, with temperatures close to 100 degrees Sunday and Monday in Carlsbad and Roswell.
Rain chances will increase next week by Tuesday and Wednesday, with some afternoon and evening showers and storms possible. Some spots could see heavy rainfall on those days, including areas near Albuquerque.
Patrick M. Brenner President Donald Trump has made restoring affordability a national priority, and early signs show that approach is working. In the housing market, mortgage rates are easing, affordability is improving, and buyers are beginning to reenter the market after years of strain. But in states like New Mexico, affordability gains will only last […]