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New Mexico 2024: Harris 52%, Trump 42% – Emerson Polling

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New Mexico 2024: Harris 52%, Trump 42% – Emerson Polling


Heinrich 49%, Domenici 37% 

A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey in New Mexico finds Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by 10 points, 52% to 42%, with 6% of voters undecided. Harris’ lead decreases to eight points when the candidate undecided voters lean toward is included. With third-party candidates on the ballot, Harris leads by 11, 51% to 40%, while 3% support Robert Kennedy Jr.

“Harris’ lead is similar to Joe Biden’s 10.8 point win over Trump in 2020,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted. “Independent voters in New Mexico break for Harris, 48% to 37%. Men break for Harris by a narrow two-point margin, 48% to 46%, while women break for Harris by 17 points, 55% to 38%.” 

The economy is the top issue for 29% of New Mexico voters, followed by crime (18%), immigration (13%), education (11%), healthcare (10%), housing affordability (6%), and threats to democracy (6%). 

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“Voters who find the economy to be the top issue break for Trump, 54% to 38%, crime, 47% to 45%, and immigration 89% to 9%. Voters who find education, healthcare, housing affordability, threats to democracy, and abortion all break for Harris significantly, an average of 82% to 15%.”

When asked who they trust more to handle immigration in New Mexico, Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, 48% trust Harris more, and 46% trust Trump more; 6% trust neither candidate. 

Fifty-three percent of voters have a favorable view of Vice President Harris, while 45% have an unfavorable view of Harris. Forty-two percent have a favorable view of Trump, while 57% have an unfavorable view of him. 

In the U.S. Senate Election between incumbent Democrat Martin Heinrich and Republican Nella Domenici, 49% support Heinrich, 37% Domenici, 4% someone else, and 9% are undecided.

Democratic candidates lead the Republicans in all three U.S. House elections in New Mexico. In the 1st district, incumbent Democrat Melanie Ann Stansbury leads Republican Steve Jones 51% to 37%; 12% of voters are undecided. In the 2nd district, 50% support Democrat Gabe Vasquez, while 41% support Republican Yvette Herrell. Nine percent are undecided. 

In the 3rd district, 52% support Democrat Teresa Leger Fernandez, while 39% support Republican Sharon Clahchishchilliage; 9% are undecided. 

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A majority of New Mexico voters say they feel less safe in New Mexico than they did five years ago, while 15% feel more safe and 32% feel the same amount of safe. 

Methodology

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill New Mexico survey was conducted August 20-22, 2024. The sample of registered voters, n=965, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.1 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on 2024 voter modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, exit polling and voter registration data. 

It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times. 

Data was collected by contacting cell phones via MMS-to-web text, landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) (both lists provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English. 

All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was sponsored by Nexstar Media.

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New Mexico

Jeffrey Epstein’s New Mexico ranch is finally being scrutinized like his island

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Jeffrey Epstein’s New Mexico ranch is finally being scrutinized like his island


Though the alleged sex trafficking on Jeffrey Epstein’s Caribbean island, Little Saint James, has dominated the national discourse recently, another Epstein property has largely stayed out of the news — but perhaps not for long. A ranch outside Santa Fe, New Mexico, that belonged to the disgraced financier has been the subject of on-and-off investigations, and many are now reexamining what role the ranch may have played in Epstein’s crimes.

What is the ranch in question?



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What to know: Election Day 2026 in Rio Rancho

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What to know: Election Day 2026 in Rio Rancho


Polls are now open in Rio Rancho where voters are set to elect a new mayor and decide several key measures Tuesday.

RIO RANCHO, N.M. — Rio Rancho voters are set to elect a new mayor and decide several key measures Tuesday in one of New Mexico’s fastest growing cities.

Voters will make their way to one of the 14 voting centers open Tuesday to decide which person will become mayor, replacing Gregg Hull. These six candidates are running:

Like Albuquerque, Rio Rancho candidates need to earn 50% of the votes to win. Otherwise, the top two candidates will go to a runoff election.

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Regardless of who wins, this will be the first time Rio Rancho voters will elect a new mayor in over a decade. Their priorities include addressing crime and how fast the city is growing, as well as improving infrastructure and government transparency, especially as the site of a new Project Ranger missile project.

The only other race with multiple candidates is the District 5 city council seat. Incumbent Karissa Culbreath faces a challenge from Calvin Ducane Ward.

Voters will also decide the fate of three general obligation bonds:

  • $12 million to road projects
  • $4.3 million to public safety facility projects
  • $1.2 million to public quality of life projects
    • e.g., renovating the Esther Bone Memorial Library

The polls will stay open until 7 p.m.



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New Mexico Livestock Board accused of abuse of power in rancher, inspector feud

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New Mexico Livestock Board accused of abuse of power in rancher, inspector feud


LAS VEGAS, N.M. — The approaching desert dusk did nothing to settle Travis Regensberg’s nerves as he and a small herd of stray cattle awaited the appearance of a state livestock inspector with whom he had a 30-year feud.

This was Nov. 3, 2023, and, as Regensberg tells it, the New Mexico Livestock Board had maintained an agreement for almost a decade: Livestock Inspector Matthew Romero would not service his ranch due to a long history of bad blood between the two men. False allegations of “cattle rustling” had surfaced in the past, Regensberg said. 

A dramatic standoff that evening, caught on lapel camera video, shows Regensberg at the entrance gate of his ranch. Defiant, Regensberg says anyone but Romero can pick up the stray cattle he had asked state livestock officials to pick up earlier in the day. Romero, who is backed up by two New Mexico State Police officers, directs Regensberg to open the gate or he will be arrested.

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Travis Regensberg, rancher and contractor, practices his throw on a roping dummy in his barn in Las Vegas, N.M., on Feb. 17, 2025.



Unlawful impound?







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A small herd of Travis Regensberg’s cattle eat feed on his property in Las Vegas, N.M.

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The history

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Travis Regensberg takes a bag of feed out to his cattle followed by his dog Rooster in Las Vegas, N.M., on Feb. 17, 2025.



‘A matter of principle’







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Travis Regensberg gathers his rope while practicing his throw on a roping dummy in his barn in Las Vegas, N.M., on Feb. 17, 2025.


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