Montana
What to expect in Montana on Election Day
WASHINGTON (AP) — When Montana voters cast ballots in the Nov. 5 general election, they’ll decide what may just be the nation’s marquee U.S. Senate race, and with it, perhaps which party will control the closely divided chamber in the next Congress. They’ll also vote on a high-profile ballot question on abortion, as well as less competitive races for president and governor.
Democrats control the U.S. Senate with a 51-49 majority. With Republicans all but certain to pick up retiring once-Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin’s seat in West Virginia, a GOP win in Montana would make it difficult for Democrats to keep their majority regardless of who wins the presidency.
Democratic incumbent Jon Tester faces a tough reelection bid for a fourth term against Republican Tim Sheehy. As one of only two Senate Democrats running for reelection in a state former President Donald Trump won easily in 2020, Tester is a perennial target for Republicans. In his past three races, he won with between 49% and 50% of the vote.
Tester has spent $71 million on the race as of the start of October, compared to about $11 million for Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL who has loaned his campaign $2.5 million. Outside groups have poured additional millions into the race.
Montana is also one of 10 states that will put a ballot question on abortion before voters in November. Officially known as “Constitutional Initiative No. 128,” the measure would enshrine a right to abortion before fetal viability in the state constitution.
At the top of the ballot, the presidential race is far less competitive. The last Democrat to carry Montana in a presidential election was Bill Clinton in 1992, although Barack Obama came close in 2008. Trump won Montana with 57% of the vote in 2016 and 2020, and the Democratic ticket has not set foot in the state this year. Tester skipped the Democratic National Convention in August and has declined to endorse Harris, although Sheehy has tried to link the senator to his party’s presidential nominee.
In the race for governor, Republican incumbent Greg Gianforte faces Democrat Ryan Busse.
Here’s a look at what to expect in the 2024 election in Montana:
Election Day
Nov. 5.
Poll closing time
10 p.m. ET.
Presidential electoral votes
4 awarded to the statewide winner.
Key races and candidates
President: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (We the People) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Jill Stein (Green).
U.S. Senate: Tester (D) vs. Sheehy (R) and two others.
Governor: Gov. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Ryan Busse (D) and one other.
Ballot measures: Constitutional Amendment 126 (top four primary), Constitutional Amendment 127 (require majority vote to win election), Constitutional Amendment 128 (right to abortion).
Other races of interest
U.S. House, Attorney General, Auditor, Secretary of State, Superintendent of Public Education, state Supreme Court, state Supreme Court clerk, state Senate, state House and Public Service Commission.
Decision Notes
Montana technically isn’t one of the states that conducts its elections predominantly by mail, but quite a few Montanans choose to vote that way regardless. In the 2018 midterm elections, about three-quarters of the total votes cast were done so by mail. That shot up to 98% in the 2020 general election at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.
State law allows elections officials to start processing and verifying mail ballots up to three days before Election Day. Machine counting of mail ballots may begin the day before Election Day.
In the 2020 U.S. Senate race, about 76% of the vote had been tabulated by 2 a.m. ET and 89% by 6 a.m. ET.
In statewide elections, Republicans tend to carry the populous counties of Yellowstone (home of Billings) and Flathead by comfortable margins and 30 or so small, rural counties by huge margins. Democrats, whether they win or lose statewide, usually carry at least six counties ranging from big (Missoula, population 117,922 ) to small (Deer Lodge, population 9,421 ). President Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton carried these six counties despite losing statewide by 16 and 20 percentages points respectively. Biden picked up a seventh small county, Blaine.
Two Democrats who won statewide in recent elections, Tester in 2018 and former Gov. Steve Bullock in 2016, both carried 13 counties: the seven Biden counties from 2020, plus Hill, Roosevelt, Lake, Lewis & Clark (home of Helena, the state capital), Cascade (home of Great Falls) and Park.
Of those, the results in vote-rich Lewis & Clark and Cascade may be the most revealing on election night. Both Tester and Bullock carried Lewis & Clark with roughly 60% of the vote. Biden received about 47% of the vote and Clinton about 42%. Cascade is tougher. Tester and Bullock received 51% and 54% there, respectively, compared to the mid-to-high 30%-range for Biden and Clinton. When Bullock lost the U.S. Senate race to Republican Steve Daines in 2020, he hung on to Lewis & Clark but lost Cascade by a double-digit margin. He also lost Hill, Lake and Park counties.
Warning signs for Tester on election night would be losing Lewis & Clark or winning there with closer to 50% of the vote rather than 60%, or if he loses Cascade or dips below roughly 60% in the Democratic stronghold of Missoula.
The Associated Press doesn’t make projections and will declare a winner only when it has determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race hasn’t been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, like candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear it hasn’t declared a winner and explain why.
Recounts are automatic in Montana if the vote is tied. Candidates may request a recount if the vote margin is less than 0.25% of the total vote or less than 0.5% if the candidate pays for it. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
Past presidential results
2020: Trump (R) 57%, Biden (D) 41%, AP race call: Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2020, 12:20 a.m. ET.
Voter registration and turnout
Registered voters: 782,176 (as of Oct. 16, 2024).
Voter turnout in 2020 presidential election: 80% of registered voters.
Pre-Election Day voting
Votes cast before Election Day 2020: about 98% of the total vote.
Votes cast before Election Day 2022: about 81% of the total vote.
Votes cast before Election Day 2024: See AP Advance Vote tracker.
How long does vote counting take?
First votes reported, Nov. 3, 2020: 10:06 p.m. ET.
By midnight ET: about 50% of total votes cast were reported.
Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
KALISPELL, Mont. — Country music star Walker Hayes will headline the 2026 Northwest Montana Fair concert, opening the Northwest Montana Fair & Rodeo in Kalispell.
Hayes is scheduled to perform Wednesday, Aug. 12, 2026, at the Flathead County Fairgrounds. The 2026 Northwest Montana Fair & Rodeo runs Aug. 12-16.
Hayes is known for hit songs including “Fancy Like,” “AA,” and “You Broke Up With Me.”
“We are thrilled to bring Walker Hayes to the Northwest Montana Fair,” said Sam Nunnally, Manager of the NW Montana Fair & Rodeo. “Our goal each year is to create unforgettable experiences for our community and visitors, and this concert will be a highlight of the 2026 Fair.”
Tickets for the Walker Hayes concert will be available through the Northwest Montana Fair website at nwmtfair.com.
The Northwest Montana Fair & Rodeo welcomes more than 80,000 guests annually and is one of the largest summer events in the region, featuring concerts, PRCA ProRodeo action, carnival rides, exhibits, food vendors, and family entertainment.
BOZEMAN — Aaron Flint and Al Olszewski, Republican candidates for Montana’s Western District U.S. House race, squared off Tuesday in their party’s only scheduled debate before the party primary.
The two debated for about 90 minutes at Bozeman’s Calvary Chapel before an audience of about 120 people. Bozeman anchors Gallatin County, which is second in Republican votes only to Flathead County within the 18-county district.
Natural resource jobs, affordable housing and U.S. military attacks on Iran dominated the discussion. Each question drew 12 minutes of response. Both men called for an end to stock trading by members of Congress, and for federal budgets to be passed on time through regular procedures.
The Montana GOP sponsored the debate. Candidate Christi Jacobsen, Montana’s secretary of state, was unable to attend, according to state Republican Party Chair Art Wittich. State Senate President Matt Regier moderated.
Among the highlights: Flint mentioned no fewer than eight times that he is endorsed by President Donald Trump. Olszewski mentioned Trump by name only a couple of times.
Never too far from Flint’s talking points were “far-left socialists,” whom he credited for “gerrymandering” the Western House District (which has delivered comfortable wins for Republicans since first appearing on the ballot in 2022). The 2026 election cycle was the target of Democrats on the state’s districting commission, Flint said. (Both Democrats on the commission that drew the district in 2021 voted against its current configuration.)
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The near faux pas of the night came during Olszewski’s discussion of good-paying jobs in trades and natural resources: “Trades jobs, natural resource jobs, you know, high-dollar, white-collar jobs, our remote workers who have moved into Montana, and we’ve adapted an economy around them. You know, these are the people, and those are the jobs that will bring our kids home, those high-paying white-collar jobs, or a good natural resource job in western Montana, in one of those mines, or, you know, you know, a sawyer or a hooker” — big pause — “as in timber, not the other way around.”
The line that didn’t land: Flint tried and failed to get audience applause for the 2024 defeat of Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Tester by Republican Sen. Tim Sheehy — an unseating Flint campaigned for.
“How many of you out there are so glad that we finally got rid of the flip-flop, flat-top liberal senator, Jon Tester? How many of you are so glad we finally did that?”
After a silence, Flint explained to people watching the debate on Facebook that the audience was just being polite.
“They’re waving because we can’t have disruptions. See, they’re good rule followers here in the Republican Party,” Flint said.
Asked how to alleviate Montana’s housing affordability crisis:
Olszewski: “The only way you can afford an expensive house is you’ve got to have a job that pays good money. Tourist jobs provide rent and roommates. Trades jobs, natural resource jobs, high‑dollar white‑collar jobs … those are the jobs that will bring our kids home.” Dr. Al, as Olszewski is widely known, said Wall Street investment buyers are distorting housing prices and the federal government has weakened the dollar.
Flint: “Thirty percent of the cost of a home is all due to red tape and regulations … It costs $100,000 to build a home before you even put a hole in the ground.”
Flint said reviving Montana’s timber industry would lower home values and added, “I support President Trump’s ban on these big Wall Street firms buying single-family homes. I think that’s something that we’ve got to get across the finish line.”
“We can deliver when it comes to making the Montana dream affordable again by delivering affordable housing. But another piece is promoting trades and trades education to build up our workforce.”
Asked how Congress should respond to the Iran conflict:
Olszewski: “I supported our president with what happened in Venezuela. There’s a $25 million bounty on basically someone that was killing our people through drugs, right? I’m not so happy with what’s going on in the Iran war. I’m not a warrior. I’m a physician from the military that fixed military people … What my perspective is, is that countries can win wars, but people do not. They don’t come back.” Olszewski said Congress will have to decide whether to authorize further use of military force and set terms in about 10 days.
Flint: “Let me just say this. We are sick and tired of these forever wars, and we do not want to see a long-term boots-on-the-ground Iraq-style nation-building exercise, and I think President Trump shares that mission as well. Let me also say this about Iran. First off, [former Venezuelan President Nicolás] Maduro is behind bars. [Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei is dead, but the far-left socialists are on the march in Montana.”
Asked about reforming Congress:
Olszewski: “What our congressmen and congresswomen have to understand is that if you’re in the House, the House belongs to the people, and they need to, first and foremost, represent you, not themselves, not special interests. It’s not about sound-bites. It’s about actually getting work done and governing.” Olszewski said the House needs to pass a budget based on 12 agency appropriations bills before the end of each federal fiscal year, a process known as “regular order.”
Flint: “We need to return to regular order and get single-subject bills and get these appropriations bills done one by one. If they can’t get a budget done, they shouldn’t get paid. And we need a ban on congressional stock trading. Because I think part of the reason why the American people are so frustrated with Congress right now is because … they believe that Congress is so useless, because we’ve got some of these politicians back there that are getting rich off the backs of taxpayers.”
Neither candidate offered a plan for cutting taxes, once a staple of Republican platforms. Both supported reductions in federal spending without identifying particular cuts.
Voting in Montana’s 2026 primary election begins May 4 and ends June 2.
POLSON, Mont. — Two motorcyclists crashed on Highway 35 near Polson after failing to negotiate a left-hand curve, leaving one man dead and another hospitalized, according to the Montana Highway Patrol.
Two motorcycles were traveling southbound on Highway 35 when both drifted into a guardrail. Both drivers were separated from their motorcycles and ended up on the other side of the guardrail.
A 58-year-old Polson man was confirmed dead at the scene. The second driver, a 45-year-old man, also from Polson, was taken to the hospital with injuries.
Alcohol is a suspected factor in the crash, according to the Montana Highway Patrol.
The crash is under investigation.
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