Hurricane Kiko weakened on Sept. 7 as the system is expected to pass north of Hawaii by midweek, bringing potentially life-threatening surf conditions and dangerous rip currents to the islands, forecasters said.

As of 11 a.m. Hawaii Standard Time (HST), the National Hurricane Center said Kiko was about 635 miles east of Hilo on the Big Island. The hurricane was moving west-northwest near 13 mph, and was forecast to track north of the Hawaiian Islands on Sept. 9 and Sept. 10, according to the hurricane center.

Kiko was maintaining maximum sustained winds of around 110 mph on Sept. 7, down from the 140 mph reported on Sept. 6, the hurricane center said. The agency noted that the hurricane is expected to become a tropical storm by late Sept. 8, decreasing the threat of high winds and heavy rain.

“Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph … with higher gusts,” the hurricane center said in its 11 a.m. HST advisory. “Additional weakening is forecast during the next few days.”

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The hurricane center warned that while the risk of “direct impacts on the islands” appeared to be decreasing, people were urged to monitor Kiko’s progress. Swells from the hurricane were forecast to begin reaching the Big Island and Maui on Sept. 7.

The swells will continue to build and increase along east-facing shorelines through the middle of the week, the hurricane center warned. The swells could produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, according to the National Weather Service.

Hawaii issues emergency declaration

In anticipation of Kiko, the state of Hawaii issued an emergency declaration on Sept. 5, an administrative action government agencies often take before tropical storms, hurricanes, and other impending weather disasters. Such declarations pave the way for emergency measures and resources that allow officials to respond quickly during emergencies.

The weather service office in Honolulu warned that swells from Kiko will develop into the night of Sept. 8 before peaking on Sept. 9 — “likely exceeding advisory levels and possible warning level surf” on east-facing shorelines.

As Kiko approaches the islands, rain and wind remain a possibility. But the weather service said the cumulative percent probability of tropical storm-force winds will range from 5 to 10% for most areas across the state. No coastal watches or warnings were in effect as of Sept. 7, according to the hurricane center.

Forecasters watching the central and eastern North Pacific, and the Atlantic also noted that there was no tropical cyclone formation expected for the next seven days.

“Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the Atlantic during the next 7 days,” the hurricane center said in a post on X. “Yes, you read that correctly, even with the normal peak of the hurricane season just 3 days away! But that doesn’t mean things can’t change quickly. As always, monitor hurricanes.gov for the latest.”

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This forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center shows only the probable path of the center of a storm. It does not illustrate the full range of impacts possible from a storm, such as swells, rain, and winds.

Contributing: Dinah Voyles Pulver, USA TODAY

HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) – Tropical Storm Kiko has formed far to the east of Hawaii with a forecast track that could take it just south of the islands.

The National Hurricane Center said in data valid at 11 a.m. Sunday, Kiko was located about 1,090 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California and was moving to the west at 9 miles per hour.

Kiko had maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour with higher gusts. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center.

Forecasters said Kiko is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by Tuesday. It is forecast to cross into the Central Pacific sometime late Thursday or Friday.

The National Hurricane Center said the tropical storm is currently moving over an area with warm sea surface temperatures, moist tropical air and little wind shear as a high pressure ridge keeps it moving generally westward over the next five days.

Current forecast models are bringing Kiko close to the islands, but it’s too soon to tell exactly where it will go and the forecast track can and will change.

If Kiko moves slightly just to the right of its current forecast track, it could come closer to Hawaii, but it will also move over cooler waters that will slow down or inhibit strengthening.

Your First Alert Weather Team will continue to closely watch this system over the next several days.

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