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Elon Musk dominates space launch. Rivals are calling foul.

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Elon Musk dominates space launch. Rivals are calling foul.


WASHINGTON — Elon Musk aggressively elbowed his way into the space launch business over the past two decades, combining engineering genius and an entrepreneurial drive with a demand that the U.S. government stop favoring the big, slow-moving contractors that had long dominated the industry.

Today, it is Musk who is dominant. His company, SpaceX, is the primary provider of launch services to NASA and to the Pentagon. His rockets carry far more commercial satellites into orbit than anyone else’s, including those for his own Starlink communications network. He has set new standards for reaching space cheaply and reliably.

But in one striking way, the former outsider has come to resemble the entrenched contractors he once fought to topple: He is increasingly using his vast power and influence to try to keep emerging rivals at bay, his competitors say, even as his success is prompting qualms within the government about such heavy reliance on a mercurial billionaire.

The new generation of space entrepreneurs trying to emulate Musk is sufficiently concerned about what they see as his anticompetitive tactics that some of them are now willing to take him on publicly.

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Tim Ellis started Relativity Space after being inspired by Musk’s pursuit of a rocket that could carry humans to Mars. Then he heard from other industry executives that individuals with ties to SpaceX were trying to block his efforts to raise money for his own Mars project.

Jim Cantrell worked with Musk at the founding of SpaceX in 2002. When he started to build his own launch company, Phantom Space, two potential customers told his sales team they could not sign deals because SpaceX inserts provisions in its contracts to discourage customers from using rivals.

Peter Beck, an aerospace engineer from New Zealand, met in 2019 with Musk to talk about Beck’s own launch company, called Rocket Lab. Several months later, SpaceX moved to start carrying small payloads at a discounted price that Beck and other industry executives said was intended to undercut their chances of success.

“I don’t think this is an accidental monopoly,” Beck said in an interview about SpaceX and Musk. “These are business decisions that are being made.”

None of these executives said they had taken legal action against SpaceX. And no one in the industry disputes that Musk and SpaceX deserve enormous credit for making spaceflight more affordable and almost routine.

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But his tactics are generating a backlash within the industry. And they are adding to concerns in the government about relying so heavily for a critical technology on someone known as much for his divisive public statements, his increasingly outspoken political positions that are at odds with U.S. policy and his deep business ties to rivals like China as he is for his engineering prowess.

Musk endorsed an antisemitic theory late last year on his social media platform X. He has nurtured relationships with right-wing leaders around the world. And he has publicly stated that Russia will not lose its war against Ukraine, endorsing an argument that the United States should not have provided Ukraine with additional military assistance.

“Elon Musk’s rhetoric and behavior undermines his credibility and reliability on a global scale,” said Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., who this spring questioned Pentagon officials about Musk. “Commercial services, including SpaceX, that do business with the U.S. government need to be thoroughly vetted to ensure that the U.S. military can depend on them in times of crisis.”

Last month, a bipartisan group of 36 House lawmakers sent a letter to Frank Kendall, the Air Force secretary, urging him to make sure that the Air Force pushes for “increased competition among launch providers.”

SpaceX did not respond to requests for comment. But when interviewed at a recent industry conference, one of SpaceX’s senior executives disputed any suggestion that the company was trying to force other new launch companies out of business.

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“I don’t buy that, not at all,” Gary Henry, who works on national security contracts for SpaceX after earlier posts with Boeing and the Air Force, said in the interview. “I can see if you are on that end of it, it might feel that way. But people in those companies who know us personally know that is not the case.”

In a presentation to SpaceX employees in Texas this year, Musk did not directly address claims of anticompetitive behavior from rivals in the launch industry. But he noted that SpaceX had carried cargo to orbit, or agreed to do so in the future, for competitors in related businesses including Amazon, Telestat, OneWeb and Apple-backed Globalstar, all of which are rivals of SpaceX’s Starlink communications network.

“We’re actually on contract to launch Amazon’s Kuiper constellation,” Musk said, evoking a round of laughter from the gathered SpaceX employees. “And we treat everyone fairly.”

SpaceX’s defenders also point out that the launch business appears to be growing more competitive, not less.

Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin is close to its first launch for its New Glenn rocket. Rocket Lab is building what it calls Neutron, and Relativity Space is working on its Terran R, among other new entrants. After years of delays, Boeing is soon expected to start launching NASA astronauts into space on its new Starliner spacecraft.

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For now, though, the ability of the United States to reach orbit, particularly for its most vital classified military and spy satellites, remains largely dependent on Musk and his Falcon 9 rocket.

“Heaven forbid we have a mishap with a Falcon 9 launch,” said Col. Richard Kniseley, who helps run Space Force’s Commercial Space Office. “That means it is grounded, right? And that means we could be without launch. So that’s where my concern is.”

SpaceX has collectively been awarded $14.7 billion in federal launch prime contracts over the past decade, according to an analysis performed by The New York Times by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Last year alone, SpaceX secured $3.1 billion in federal prime contracts, according to the data, nearly as much as the combined amount the federal government committed for space transportation and related services from its nine competitors, from giants like Boeing and Northrop Grumman to startups like Blue Origin.

SpaceX is privately held, so it does not release revenue figures, but Payload, an industry research site, estimated that nearly 60% of SpaceX’s launch-related revenue last year came from the federal government.

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This means that despite Musk’s early disdain for government subsidies granted to his rivals, including Lockheed and Boeing, SpaceX’s own rise has been bankrolled in large part by NASA and the Pentagon.

At the same time, SpaceX has increasingly adopted business tactics that Musk once condemned, including expanding its lobbying presence in Washington and hiring top Pentagon and NASA executives after they played key roles in awarding contracts to SpaceX.

Beck, the CEO of Rocket Lab, started the company in 2006, just four years after SpaceX was created and before SpaceX had sent its first rocket to orbit.

Since then, Rocket Lab’s Electron launch vehicle has had more than 40 successful trips to orbit, delivering almost 200 satellites to space at one of the lowest costs in the industry.

Now the second most frequent orbital commercial launch company globally behind SpaceX, Rocket Lab is moving to build Neutron, a larger rocket that will compete directly with SpaceX’s Falcon 9.

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Beck said he had observed early on that SpaceX was willing to go after its business rivals.

He and other industry executives said they were convinced that SpaceX had set the price for its Transporter service — where small satellite companies can book slots on a Falcon 9 launch — with the explicit goal of undermining the financial plans of emerging competitors.

Transporter’s low price — initially $5,000 per kilogram — was below what some industry executives calculated was SpaceX’s basic cost. They concluded that SpaceX could only offer such a low price by subsiding those flights with some of its government contracting revenue.

More recently, SpaceX started what it called Bandwagon, which offers satellite makers launches to orbits that provide them better coverage over key sections of the world. SpaceX is selling these flights at far below its own costs to undermine its competition, Beck said, citing his own estimates.

“Bandwagon is like, the most bold and obtuse anticompetitive thing you can do,” said Beck, whose company charges about $21,500 per kilogram for its launches to specific orbits.

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Henry disputed that SpaceX might be using its market dominance to hurt its competitors.

“We make money on all our launches,” he said.

Flights that carry multiple private and government payloads on a single Falcon 9 launch, he said, are benefiting the commercial space industry by making it more affordable for small firms to get satellites into orbit.

Ellis of Relativity Space said SpaceX had made explicit and repeated efforts to limit the growth of his business.

“Every single funding round that was done once we started to become a larger company, and every single customer deal we have signed, has been followed with a swift and large number of outreach calls from SpaceX to all of those entities berating them for doing things with us,” he said. “This is not theoretical.”

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Kolekole Pass cleared for emergency evacuations out of West Oahu

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Kolekole Pass cleared for emergency evacuations out of West Oahu


HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) – The Kolekole Pass is officially allowed to be used as an evacuation route in the event of an emergency on West Oahu.

U.S. military and civilian officials signed an updated official memorandum of understanding Wednesday, opening Kolekole Pass for emergency use.

The first document was signed just prior to July 29, 2025, when Hawaii faced a tsunami warning, and the pass was opened for West Oahu residents to evacuate.

Nearly 500 vehicles made their way through the pass that day as many evacuated the Leeward Coast, officials said.

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Maj. Gen. James Batholomees, U.S. Army Commander, Hawaii, was joined by his counterparts from Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam and the state Department of Transportation officers for Wednesday’s signing.

Batholomees said he took command the day before the tsunami warning.

“The next day, the first order that I had the blessing of giving was in conjunction with the Navy opening the pass during the tsunami,” he said.

Kupuna from the Leeward Coast also attended the signing, saying they were happy for a much-needed secondary route in the event that Farrington Highway is shut down.

Leeward Coast resident William Aila recalled when Farrington Highway was closed for 11 days due to Hurricane Iwa in 1982.

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“We need an opportunity to bring in first aid, to bring in food, and to bring in other emergency supplies,” said Aila.

Officials say they are committed to conducting a mass evacuation rehearsal using Kolekole Pass every year.

Ed Sniffen, director of the state Department of Transportation, said it’s the key to a successful activation to use the route.

“The road is safe,” said Sniffen. “When we rode through this, and we did this twice with large operations, the road is safe.”

He added, “That being said, there are improvements that we still want to make.”

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HDOT continues to work with the U.S. Army and U.S. Navy on upgrading the roadway, which may total $20 million in improvements.



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The Places Visitors Love Most In Hawaii Just Hit Their Limit

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The Places Visitors Love Most In Hawaii Just Hit Their Limit


If you’ve driven Hana Highway recently, as we have, tried to wedge your rental car onto the shoulder at Honolua Bay, inched along North Shore behind an hours-long nonstop line of brake lights, or followed a social media pin taking you to Hoopii Falls, Hawaii just put those exact places into specific future plans.

The state updated plans naming specific beaches, roads, trails, and bays where visitor pressure is highest and outlining what officials say could change at each. The first round of these (DMAPs) leaned heavily on broader goals and community meetings. The latest version, however, now lists the individual sites and attaches proposed actions. These are among the most in-demand places people build into their trips, not some policy abstractions.

Before assuming your next trip will look dramatically different, one basic reality is worth noting. The Hawaii Tourism Authority does not manage the roads, trails, bays, or neighborhoods in question, so the counties, DLNR, Hawaiian Home Lands, and private landowners will be needed to carry out most of what has just been described. In almost every case, the first year at least is focused on more studies, coordination, and setting up of what might come next.

Scenic Point from Road to Hana

Maui: Hana and Honolua finally get specific plans.

Maui’s plan centers squarely on the iconic Hana Highway, with six of the island’s nine site-specific actions targeting that single corridor.

The ideas are relatively straightforward. Paid community stewards at high-traffic stops such as Keanae Peninsula, a first-of-its-kind Hawaii tour guide certification program requiring culturally accurate mo’olelo (storytelling), safety guidance, and place-based knowledge instead of loosely scripted commentary, together with clearer signage identifying safe and legal pullouts while reminding drivers to let residents pass instead of backing up traffic for visitor photo opportunities.

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At Bamboo Forest off Hana Highway, the plan addresses repeated trespassing onto private land. There have been 35 rescues there over the past decade, most requiring use of emergency helicopters. The proposal calls for signage clearly indicating no access. But because that land is privately owned, any real restriction there depends on the owner’s full cooperation.

Honolua Bay carries perhaps the boldest concept of all in the statewide package of suggested changes, including a reservation and shuttle system to eliminate illegal roadside parking, a cultural trail staffed by stewards before visitors ever reach the water, and water stewards who will be paddling out to orient snorkel boat passengers. No procurement process has started, and no shuttle contract exists, so the idea remains on paper for now. Kaupo, where a recently paved road has attracted more traffic and complaints, would also get sensor-linked warning signs at blind hills to focus on driving safety.

Big Island: Kealakekua Bay may see closings.

Kealakekua Bay is the main headline site here, as might be expected. The draft introduces the possibility of “rest days” during coral spawning or other sensitive periods, coordinated by the DLNR, when the bay would be closed to visitors. It is still a concept and would require coordination beyond HTA.

At Keaukaha near Hilo, cruise ship impacts drive the conversation ideas, and the community has pushed for a permanent role in shaping how visitor flow is handled around the port. A steward program piloted in 2023 is now being formalized rather than remaining as a short-term experiment.

South Point, or Ka Lae, sits on Hawaiian Home Lands, so the state’s role here is to support the Department of Hawaiian Home Lands’ existing plan rather than create a new one from scratch. Hilo itself is described as needing more visitor activity even as other Big Island sites seek to manage crowding.

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Kaena Point State Park OahuKaena Point State Park Oahu

Oahu: North Shore, pillboxes, and parking reality.

On Oahu, it’s the iconic North Shore that anchors the plan. Five sequenced actions are listed, but the first year focuses on studies, coordination, and groundwork.

There is no shuttle system scheduled for immediate rollout and no reservation platform ready to launch. During the public webinar, officials said any fees would be site-specific and pointed to the extremely limited parking infrastructure as a major constraint.

Lanikai Pillboxes and Maili Pillbox are cited as trails that have seen steep increases in use due to social media exposure. Lanikai already has daytime parking restrictions on residential streets between 10 am and 4 pm, and Maili has experienced a recent fatality. The plan for Lanikai is to evaluate managed access, while for Maili, it begins with determining who is responsible for the trail and what authority exists in order to manage it.

Downtown Honolulu appears in the draft as a future walkable corridor linking Iolani Palace, Honolulu Hale, and nearby historic sites and shops.

Waipo'o Falls Trail at Waimea Canyon KauaiWaipo'o Falls Trail at Waimea Canyon Kauai

Kauai: this waterfall became a neighborhood fight.

Hoopii Falls in Kapaa has become one of the most tense sites in the statewide plans. What was once a local waterfall became a high-traffic destination after intense social media exposure. The trail crosses private, lease, and state lands and is not formally maintained, and residents have placed rocks and tree stumps at neighborhood access points to slow or block visitor flow. The plan’s near-term focus is to gather more data and bring landowners together to clarify jurisdiction and what can legally be done before any formal access system is devised.

The Kapaa Crawl along Kuhio Highway is listed as a priority, but the proposed response, which is a shuttle and visitor hub concept centered on Coconut Marketplace, has no funding, no operator, and no timeline.

Kokee and Waimea Canyon are also included. Two of four proposed actions are already deferred beyond the first funding year, and the near-term steps focus has moved to installing visitor counters and studying whether a reservation system would be feasible.

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What changes on your next trip.

Across all four islands, social media is repeatedly cited as a significant accelerant, turning lesser-known spots into must-see stops almost overnight. And in that regard, there is no end in sight.

There are no additional statewide fees attached to these newly identified sites, no disclosed budgets for even the most ambitious concepts, and HTA does not gain or lose any new enforcement authority through these drafts.

If you are visiting in the coming months, you are unlikely to encounter reservation systems at Honolua Bay, formalized rest-day closures at Kealakekua, shuttles operating on the North Shore, or state-managed access changes at Ho’opi’i. Most of what is described for year one is groundwork.

You can review the full island-by-island drafts here: https://www.hawaiitourismauthority.org/what-we-do/destination-management-action-plans/

Do these plans go far enough or too far at the sites you know best?

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Hawaii County Surf Forecast for March 04, 2026 | Big Island Now

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Hawaii County Surf Forecast for March 04, 2026 | Big Island Now


Forecast for Big Island Windward and Southeast


Shores Tonight Wednesday
Surf Surf
PM AM AM PM
North Facing 2-4 2-4 2-4 2-4
East Facing 3-5 4-6 4-6 5-7
South Facing 1-3 1-3 1-3 1-3
TONIGHT
Weather Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers.
Low Temperature In the upper 60s.
Winds East winds 5 to 10 mph.
Tides
Hilo Bay High 1.9 feet 03:26 PM HST.
Low -0.1 feet 09:20 PM HST.
High 2.4 feet 03:40 AM HST.
WEDNESDAY
Weather Partly sunny. Numerous showers.
High Temperature In the upper 70s.
Winds East winds 10 to 15 mph.
Tides
Hilo Bay Low -0.1 feet 10:00 AM HST.
High 2.0 feet 04:04 PM HST.
Sunrise 6:37 AM HST.
Sunset 6:27 PM HST.

Forecast for Big Island Leeward


Shores Tonight Wednesday
Surf Surf
PM AM AM PM
West Facing 2-4 2-4 2-4 1-3
South Facing 1-3 1-3 1-3 1-3
TONIGHT
Weather Mostly sunny until 6 PM, then mostly
cloudy. Hazy.
Low Temperature In the upper 60s.
Winds West winds around 5 mph early in the
afternoon, becoming light and variable.
Tides
Kona High 1.5 feet 04:04 PM HST.
Low -0.1 feet 09:57 PM HST.
High 1.9 feet 04:18 AM HST.
Kawaihae High 1.4 feet 04:36 PM HST.
Low -0.1 feet 10:20 PM HST.
High 1.9 feet 04:38 AM HST.
WEDNESDAY
Weather Partly sunny. Hazy.
High Temperature In the mid 80s.
Winds Light and variable winds, becoming west
around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Tides
Kona Low -0.1 feet 10:37 AM HST.
High 1.6 feet 04:42 PM HST.
Kawaihae Low -0.2 feet 11:01 AM HST.
High 1.6 feet 05:13 PM HST.
Sunrise 6:41 AM HST.
Sunset 6:31 PM HST.

The current moderate northwest swell will continue a gradual decline through Thursday. A small west-northwest swell will arrive on Friday and hold through the weekend, followed by a small north-northwest swell early next week. Choppy east shore surf will build to near seasonal average by Wednesday as trade winds strengthen over and east of the islands. Little change is expected along east facing shores through the weekend, followed by a possible decline early next week if winds veer southerly. Surf along south facing shores will remain small to tiny through the weekend, and some islands may an increase in choppy surf if southerly winds develop early next week.

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NORTH EAST

am        pm  

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Surf: Minimal (ankle high or less) surf.

Conditions: Semi choppy with ESE winds 5-10mph in the morning increasing to 10-15mph in the afternoon.

NORTH WEST

am        pm  

Surf: Minimal (ankle high or less) surf.

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Conditions: Clean in the early morning with ESE winds less than 5mph. Bumpy/semi bumpy conditions move in during the morning hours with the winds shifting W 5-10mph.

WEST

am        pm  

Surf: Minimal (ankle high or less) surf.

Conditions: Semi glassy in the morning with N winds less than 5mph. Bumpy/semi bumpy conditions for the afternoon with the winds shifting WNW 5-10mph.

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SOUTH EAST

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am        pm  

Surf: Minimal (ankle high or less) surf.

Conditions: Light sideshore texture in the morning with NE winds 10-15mph. This becomes Sideshore texture/chop for the afternoon.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov and SwellInfo.com



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