Arguably no team in the NBA has a starting five with as much high-end talent and lineup balance as the Denver Nuggets. On the season, the unit of Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, and Nikola Jokic is a +13.1 points per 100 possessions over the course of 1831 non-garbage time possessions (per Cleaning the Glass). That is the exact type of indicator you want to see from a championship lineup.

The one thing plaguing this team as they gear up for the postseason is their bench. As it stands, no one on their bench who has played over 200 non-garbage time minutes on the season has a positive point differential when they are on the floor.

Denver had a similar problem last year. Their solution was to consolidate their rotation so that they only needed to use three bench players (Christian Braun, Jeff Green, and Bruce Brown).

The issue here is that two of those players (Green and Brown) are no longer employed by the organization, and they didn’t make any trades at the deadline to fill the holes left by them.

That brings us to the central question of this article: do the Nuggets have enough on their current roster to field a three-man bench that can help them repeat as NBA Champions?

What Did Their Bench Bring?

Before we can answer that question, we need to know what this year’s bench is attempting to replace.

Brown was the headliner of the trio. He was a jack-of-all-trades defender. Not elite in any one defensive skill, but above average in pretty much every facet on that side of the ball. On offense, Brown was the king of spunk — helping to ignite Denver’s offense with his pace-pushing (77th percentile in transition possessions per game in 2022-23, per NBA.com) and secondary on-ball creation.

Green was the sage master of the group. Including last year’s run, Green has been on ten playoff teams, and he’s had some big moments in big games (most notably Game 7 of the 2018 Eastern Conference Finals). Along with his wisdom, Green also offered size (6’8 with a 7’1 wingspan), physicality, and play finishing (as a spot-up shooter, cutter, and roller).

Braun was a rookie last year, but he handled himself like a seasoned veteran. Denver relied on him to handle some of their opponent’s toughest matchups. According to NBA.com matchup data, Braun held Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Jimmy Butler, and Mike Conley to a combined 16-for-41 (39%). And like Green, he also sprinkled in some size (6’6 with a 6’6.5 wingspan), physicality, and play finishing (he put on a clinic in cutting during Game 3 of the NBA Finals).

Christian Braun

Let’s make one thing clear. The Nuggets don’t need to replace the individual pieces they lost. They just need to replace the production lost from the three players in the aggregate — akin to the problem faced by the Oakland Athletics in Moneyball.

Braun will be the easiest player to replace. You know, considering he’s still on the team! Braun has already proven that what he does will translate to the playoffs. However, with Green no longer in the picture. Braun will need to bring even more physicality to the table.

Peyton Watson (more on him in a moment) is taller/longer than Braun (6’7 with a 7’0.5 wingspan). But Watson doesn’t like getting his hands dirty the way Braun does, as evidenced by his contested rebounding percentage only being in the 39th percentile (compared to Braun’s 59th percentile contested rebounding percentage).

We saw this come into play in Denver’s recent matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves. When they shared the floor, Watson guarded the smaller/shiftier Conley while Braun took on the assignment of keeping the raging bull that is Anthony Edwards in front of him. After scoring 15 points on 4-for-6 shooting in the third, Edwards was relegated to a goose egg on 0-for-3 shooting in the final frame.

[Sidebar#1:Braun also offers some transition punch (more so as a finisher than an initiator), ranking in the 60th percentile in transition possessions per game this season.]

Reggie Jackson

Reggie Jackson was also on the team last year, but he only played 18 minutes throughout the entirety of their 16-game run. On the surface, that seems worrisome. Why wouldn’t Denver play him if he could help them?

My suspicion is that the Nuggets were already getting the secondary on-ball creation they needed from Brown. So, they didn’t feel like putting another smaller player on the court (small players often get picked on in the playoffs) that’s best skill is one they already had enough of (recall our lesson on redundancies).

Now, the Nuggets need Jackson’s secondary creation. Jackson is in the 81st percentile in Box Creation (a metric that estimates playmaking ability) and the 80th percentile in Passer Rating (a metric that estimates passing ability).

Jackson can create for himself too. He maintains solid midrange (43rd percentile, per Dunks & Threes) and 3-point (50th percentile) percentages, despite being in the 79th and 85th percentile in unassisted midrange and 3-point shots, respectively.

When Murray is on the bench, Jackson can fill in as The Joker’s partner-in-crime. In the 1,012 minutes the two have shared together this season, the Nuggets have a net rating of +7.2 and an offensive rating of 120.0.

[Sidebar#2: Jackson also gives Denver the veteran element that they lost with Green.]

Peyton Watson

Lastly, we have Watson. Watson is the member of this trio with the most pressure on him, especially after the comments made by Nuggets general manager Calvin Booth prior to the start of the season.

“Some of these teams were trying to get Bruce, trying to make it worth it; it’s like, just be careful what you wish for,” Booth told The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor. “Peyton’s bigger. He’s longer. He’s more athletic. He guards better. He passes better. He doesn’t have the experience, and he’s not as good offensively yet, but we need defense more than we need offense on our team.”

For the most part, Booth wasn’t wrong. Watson has been a better defender this year (95th percentile Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus) than Brown was last year (74th percentile). And it’s because he’s all the things Booth said he was — longer, more athletic, and a better on-ball defender.

I can’t say Watson is a better passer yet. But the flashes he’s demonstrated are certainly intriguing. Booth was also correct in citing Watson’s lack of experience/offense. Fortunately, Jackson should be able to handle those departments.

Watson does provide something that no one on Denver’s playoff bench gave them last year: rim protection. Watson is in the 93rd percentile in block rate, and that isn’t just a byproduct of meaningless block-hunting. His impact is present on a team-wide level. When Watson is on the floor, Denver is in the 98th percentile in opponent rim accuracy.

The only thing holding Watson back from being a guaranteed playoff performer are the concerns surrounding his perimeter spacing (or should we say lack thereof). Last season, Brown was hitting a respectable 35.8% of his threes. This year, Watson is only converting on 29.3% of his triples. The hope there is that Jackson playing more minutes will help make up for that gap.

The Bottom Line

In general, it normally isn’t wise to over-index on a single regular season game. However, Denver’s aforementioned recent clash with the Timberwolves feels like an exception since it was a late-season contest between two teams clashing for the number one seed in the West.

In that playoff-lite outing, Braun (27:17), Jackson (20:20), and Watson (23:01) all logged positive +/- totals — Braun was a +9, Jackson was a +3, and Watson was a +4. And they posted those marks by doing all the things we outlined above.

Braun and Watson, in particular, were so good in the fourth quarter (Braun a +7, Watson a +9) that they didn’t even need to bring in Gordon and Caldwell-Pope down the stretch.

Because Denver’s starting five is so damn good, their bench players need only fulfill very carved-out roles. And while we won’t know for sure until we see them in action in a playoff series, it does look like the trio of Braun/Jackson/Watson has just enough ponies in the stable to help give Denver a legitimate shot at being back-to-back NBA Champions.

***All stats are updated as of April 11, 2024.