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Is The Denver Nuggets’ Bench Enough For Them To Go Back-To-Back?

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Is The Denver Nuggets’ Bench Enough For Them To Go Back-To-Back?


Arguably no team in the NBA has a starting five with as much high-end talent and lineup balance as the Denver Nuggets. On the season, the unit of Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, and Nikola Jokic is a +13.1 points per 100 possessions over the course of 1831 non-garbage time possessions (per Cleaning the Glass). That is the exact type of indicator you want to see from a championship lineup.

The one thing plaguing this team as they gear up for the postseason is their bench. As it stands, no one on their bench who has played over 200 non-garbage time minutes on the season has a positive point differential when they are on the floor.

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Denver had a similar problem last year. Their solution was to consolidate their rotation so that they only needed to use three bench players (Christian Braun, Jeff Green, and Bruce Brown).

The issue here is that two of those players (Green and Brown) are no longer employed by the organization, and they didn’t make any trades at the deadline to fill the holes left by them.

That brings us to the central question of this article: do the Nuggets have enough on their current roster to field a three-man bench that can help them repeat as NBA Champions?

What Did Their Bench Bring?

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Before we can answer that question, we need to know what this year’s bench is attempting to replace.

Brown was the headliner of the trio. He was a jack-of-all-trades defender. Not elite in any one defensive skill, but above average in pretty much every facet on that side of the ball. On offense, Brown was the king of spunk — helping to ignite Denver’s offense with his pace-pushing (77th percentile in transition possessions per game in 2022-23, per NBA.com) and secondary on-ball creation.

Green was the sage master of the group. Including last year’s run, Green has been on ten playoff teams, and he’s had some big moments in big games (most notably Game 7 of the 2018 Eastern Conference Finals). Along with his wisdom, Green also offered size (6’8 with a 7’1 wingspan), physicality, and play finishing (as a spot-up shooter, cutter, and roller).

Braun was a rookie last year, but he handled himself like a seasoned veteran. Denver relied on him to handle some of their opponent’s toughest matchups. According to NBA.com matchup data, Braun held Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Jimmy Butler, and Mike Conley to a combined 16-for-41 (39%). And like Green, he also sprinkled in some size (6’6 with a 6’6.5 wingspan), physicality, and play finishing (he put on a clinic in cutting during Game 3 of the NBA Finals).

Christian Braun

Let’s make one thing clear. The Nuggets don’t need to replace the individual pieces they lost. They just need to replace the production lost from the three players in the aggregate — akin to the problem faced by the Oakland Athletics in Moneyball.

Braun will be the easiest player to replace. You know, considering he’s still on the team! Braun has already proven that what he does will translate to the playoffs. However, with Green no longer in the picture. Braun will need to bring even more physicality to the table.

Peyton Watson (more on him in a moment) is taller/longer than Braun (6’7 with a 7’0.5 wingspan). But Watson doesn’t like getting his hands dirty the way Braun does, as evidenced by his contested rebounding percentage only being in the 39th percentile (compared to Braun’s 59th percentile contested rebounding percentage).

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We saw this come into play in Denver’s recent matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves. When they shared the floor, Watson guarded the smaller/shiftier Conley while Braun took on the assignment of keeping the raging bull that is Anthony Edwards in front of him. After scoring 15 points on 4-for-6 shooting in the third, Edwards was relegated to a goose egg on 0-for-3 shooting in the final frame.

[Sidebar#1:Braun also offers some transition punch (more so as a finisher than an initiator), ranking in the 60th percentile in transition possessions per game this season.]

Reggie Jackson

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Reggie Jackson was also on the team last year, but he only played 18 minutes throughout the entirety of their 16-game run. On the surface, that seems worrisome. Why wouldn’t Denver play him if he could help them?

My suspicion is that the Nuggets were already getting the secondary on-ball creation they needed from Brown. So, they didn’t feel like putting another smaller player on the court (small players often get picked on in the playoffs) that’s best skill is one they already had enough of (recall our lesson on redundancies).

Now, the Nuggets need Jackson’s secondary creation. Jackson is in the 81st percentile in Box Creation (a metric that estimates playmaking ability) and the 80th percentile in Passer Rating (a metric that estimates passing ability).

Jackson can create for himself too. He maintains solid midrange (43rd percentile, per Dunks & Threes) and 3-point (50th percentile) percentages, despite being in the 79th and 85th percentile in unassisted midrange and 3-point shots, respectively.

When Murray is on the bench, Jackson can fill in as The Joker’s partner-in-crime. In the 1,012 minutes the two have shared together this season, the Nuggets have a net rating of +7.2 and an offensive rating of 120.0.

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[Sidebar#2: Jackson also gives Denver the veteran element that they lost with Green.]

Peyton Watson

Lastly, we have Watson. Watson is the member of this trio with the most pressure on him, especially after the comments made by Nuggets general manager Calvin Booth prior to the start of the season.

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“Some of these teams were trying to get Bruce, trying to make it worth it; it’s like, just be careful what you wish for,” Booth told The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor. “Peyton’s bigger. He’s longer. He’s more athletic. He guards better. He passes better. He doesn’t have the experience, and he’s not as good offensively yet, but we need defense more than we need offense on our team.”

For the most part, Booth wasn’t wrong. Watson has been a better defender this year (95th percentile Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus) than Brown was last year (74th percentile). And it’s because he’s all the things Booth said he was — longer, more athletic, and a better on-ball defender.

I can’t say Watson is a better passer yet. But the flashes he’s demonstrated are certainly intriguing. Booth was also correct in citing Watson’s lack of experience/offense. Fortunately, Jackson should be able to handle those departments.

Watson does provide something that no one on Denver’s playoff bench gave them last year: rim protection. Watson is in the 93rd percentile in block rate, and that isn’t just a byproduct of meaningless block-hunting. His impact is present on a team-wide level. When Watson is on the floor, Denver is in the 98th percentile in opponent rim accuracy.

The only thing holding Watson back from being a guaranteed playoff performer are the concerns surrounding his perimeter spacing (or should we say lack thereof). Last season, Brown was hitting a respectable 35.8% of his threes. This year, Watson is only converting on 29.3% of his triples. The hope there is that Jackson playing more minutes will help make up for that gap.

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The Bottom Line

In general, it normally isn’t wise to over-index on a single regular season game. However, Denver’s aforementioned recent clash with the Timberwolves feels like an exception since it was a late-season contest between two teams clashing for the number one seed in the West.

In that playoff-lite outing, Braun (27:17), Jackson (20:20), and Watson (23:01) all logged positive +/- totals — Braun was a +9, Jackson was a +3, and Watson was a +4. And they posted those marks by doing all the things we outlined above.

Braun and Watson, in particular, were so good in the fourth quarter (Braun a +7, Watson a +9) that they didn’t even need to bring in Gordon and Caldwell-Pope down the stretch.

Because Denver’s starting five is so damn good, their bench players need only fulfill very carved-out roles. And while we won’t know for sure until we see them in action in a playoff series, it does look like the trio of Braun/Jackson/Watson has just enough ponies in the stable to help give Denver a legitimate shot at being back-to-back NBA Champions.

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***All stats are updated as of April 11, 2024.



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Denver, CO

Novo Coffee opens second location at Denver International Airport

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Novo Coffee opens second location at Denver International Airport


USA. Local specialty coffee roaster Novo Coffee has unveiled its second location at Denver International Airport in partnership with the AVE Group.

Located at Concourse B, the new coffee kiosk features Novo Coffee’s full coffee menu, including fresh baked goods and other takeaway items.

Novo Coffee grows its presence at Denver International Airport with the opening of its second location at Concourse B

Popular local artist Pat Milberry was commissioned to design the coffee kiosk, as he did for the Concourse A location.

Novo Coffee is driven by its commitment to sustainability in producing its coffee and holds a Certifiably Green Denver certification.

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Its partnership with the AVE Group started in October 2022, resulting in the first travel retail location at Denver International Airport. The opening formed part of the airport’s Small Business Enterprise Concessions programme – the first in its history. The programme was designed to level the playing field for small businesses which intend to participate in contract opportunities at the Colorado gateway.

Novo Coffee serves a wide variety of specialty coffees ethically sourced from well-trusted coffee producers and farmers

The AVE Group was founded by experienced travel retail executive Kathleen Schafer to bring Novo Coffee to the airport.

For more than a decade, Schafer has seen her career grow at Denver-based concessionaire Mission Yogurt to become Vice President, establishing her own concessions company in 2015 while awaiting the right opportunity.

It came to fruition with this programme and partnership, and now the AVE Group closely collaborates with Novo Coffee to manage the daily operations of the two stores.

Schafer said: “We’re proud to again partner with such a relationship-based brand as Novo Coffee, and to continue bringing its high-quality products to travellers at the airport.

“We’re very grateful to Denver International Airport and the Small Business Enterprise Concessions committee for supporting small Denver-based businesses.”

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Novo Coffee Co-founder and President Jake Brodsky added: “Novo Coffee is thrilled to bring more local, quality flavours to Denver International Airport.

“We’ve been working hard to sustainably grow and improve our small company since day one. We’re excited to share our coffees with even more guests travelling to and through our hometown.”

Denver International Airport CEO Phil Washington commented: “We’re thrilled to welcome Novo Coffee into a second location at DEN. We know our passengers already value the great products and service that Novo offers and will appreciate having an additional location at the airport to visit.

“I am also pleased to report that the AVE Group, LLC., Novo’s operational partner, is a Small Business Enterprise Concession Operator and woman-owned and operated business, a value that’s deeply embedded within our Concessions programme.

“We know that as DEN continues to provide opportunities for more businesses to share in the airport’s success, we all contribute to the economic health of our region.” ✈

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Suns to sign point guard Collin Gillespie, per report

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Suns to sign point guard Collin Gillespie, per report


Former Denver Nuggets point guard Collin Gillespie has agreed to sign with the Phoenix Suns on a two-way contract, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported Monday.

He is the second two-way player who has agreed to sign with the Suns. Phoenix signed rookie wing Jalen Bridges out of Baylor immediately following the NBA Draft.

Gillespie posted “new beginnings” on social media following the report.

NBA teams are allowed to max out at three two-way players.

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Gillespie, 25, played in 24 games for the Nuggets last season, averaging 3.6 points, 1.1 assists and 0.6 steals in 9.4 minutes per game.

The 6-foot-1, 195-pound guard shot 46.4% and 39.5% from three.

Gillespie played five years at Villanova, finishing school in 2021-22 by averaging 15.6 points and 3.2 assists per game.

He signed with Denver and was a member of their title team despite missing the season due to a leg fracture.

He brings value as a depth option at point guard, which Phoenix has yet to address in the draft or the first few days of free agency.

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The Suns were without a traditional point guard last season. Devin Booker and Bradley Beal served as the Suns’ floor generals more times than not, while starter Grayson Allen was often left to defend the opposing point guards.

NBA veteran Isaiah Thomas was brought in late for a seven-game run that included a playoff appearance, though he only averaged four minutes per game and didn’t break into the rotation. Two-way guard Saben Lee occasionally played a role off the bench, though not a consistent one.





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What's next for Nuggets after losing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope?

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What's next for Nuggets after losing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope?


For the past few weeks, the Denver Nuggets have been bracing for the possibility of losing starting shooting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. As the days got closer to Sunday’s start of free agency, those fears inside the organization turned into acceptance and resignation. The Nuggets knew, even though it made what they felt to be a competitive offer, that Caldwell-Pope was likely to leave.

That likelihood turned into reality during the first hour of free agency as Caldwell-Pope agreed to a three-year deal with the Orlando Magic, making the Magic stronger while weakening the Nuggets. It marks the second consecutive offseason the Nuggets have lost a key piece from the team that won the 2023 NBA championship.

The Nuggets need to figure out a way to replace what Caldwell-Pope brought to the roster on and off the court. It won’t be easy in either aspect.

Below is a breakdown of the challenges the Nuggets face and what they can do next.

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Why is this loss so substantial?

The Nuggets didn’t become championship competitive until they started stopping people at the point of attack on defense. And they didn’t become demons on defense until they brought in Caldwell-Pope. Defenders such as Caldwell-Pope were able to help mitigate Nikola Jokić’s lack of rim protection.

Caldwell-Pope, while being one of the best perimeter defenders in all of basketball, also hit 41.5 percent of his 3-pointers in his two seasons in Denver and he made a habit of hitting big shots.

He proved to be a good fit in Denver’s offensive scheme because he moved so well without the basketball. He took advantage of his opportunities and never hijacked the offense while maintaining terrific chemistry with Jokić and Jamal Murray.

His value in the locker room was almost as great, if not even greater. He provided a voice of competitive calm. After winning the 2020 title in the NBA bubble with the Lakers, he brought with him a championship pedigree and spoke often about what it was like to win at the highest level. He was the only player on the Nuggets roster who experienced a title before 2023. He translated that experience to his teammates.

Caldwell-Pope often took on difficult perimeter assignments, so Murray wouldn’t have to tax himself defensively. He is the very definition of a veteran who wore many hats and allowed more celebrated teammates to thrive. As a result, his presence won’t be easily replaced.

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Why did this happen?

The Nuggets made a competitive offer but the new rules and penalties brought by the NBA’s collective bargaining agreement hurt Denver in this instance. Had the Nuggets retained Caldwell-Pope, they would likely have gone into the second tax apron, which would severely limit how a team can construct a roster. Here is what happens if you are a team in the second apron:

  • No access to any mid-level exception in free agency.
  • Can’t aggregate contracts in trades
  • Can’t send cash in trades
  • Can’t sign and trade your own player
  • Can’t trade a first-round pick seven years in the future, and that pick falls to the bottom of the first round if the team is also above the second apron in two of the ensuing four years

Denver made a competitive offer to Caldwell-Pope, but when the race is a tie, you essentially have a 50 percent chance of losing that race. The Nuggets ended up losing the race. It also should be noted that even if Denver had been able to keep Caldwell-Pope, the Nuggets likely would be in the same boat next summer with Aaron Gordon.

In losing Caldwell-Pope, the Nuggets now have access to the $5.18 million taxpayer midlevel exception. They likely aren’t finding a starter with that kind of money. But they can find a rotation player with that. That leads us to …

How does Denver replace Caldwell-Pope?

The Nuggets are exploring the trade market and canvassing free agency. Yet, if the Nuggets’ roster largely stays the same, Christian Braun is in line for a big jump in playing time and responsibility. Elevating Braun to the starting lineup could be a mixed bag. Braun is bigger and more athletic than Caldwell-Pope. He’s a similar defender, and a tough, competitive player. He’s a much better player in transition than Caldwell-Pope.

But he’s not nearly the same level of shooter. He’s also not as good a creator off the dribble and creating off the bounce wasn’t Caldwell-Pope’s strength.

There is a question as to whether or not the Nuggets give Julian Strawther a chance at starting, and keep Braun as the sixth man, but playing Braun 30-plus minutes a game. Strawther is a terrific shooter. The former first-round pick out of Gonzaga is long and rangy for a shooting guard at 6 foot 7. He’s more creative off the dribble than given credit. His presence helps offensively and helps the spacing of the offense.

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However, Strawther isn’t a great defender and he must get better.

Peyton Watson also is in line for an uptick in minutes, although he is likely to come off the bench, no matter what happens.

What do Nuggets need?

Internal development will aid the Nuggets here. They need Strawther, Hunter Tyson and Jalen Pickett to come back as better players, because, with the trade of Reggie Jackson to Charlotte, the Nuggets now no longer have a backup point guard. The Nuggets will need to find one in the coming days. Denver needs a lead from Braun and Strawther. The Nuggets need Michael Porter Jr. to continue to improve what he does as well.

This is the reality of the new collective bargaining agreement. Teams are going to have to spend wisely and choose wisely. It becomes more difficult to maintain a championship-level core, and Nuggets general manager Calvin Booth knows that.

Losing Brown last year and Caldwell-Pope now is difficult. It puts an onus on the Nuggets to hit on most roster moves. Denver is in the middle of Jokić’s prime and wants to maximize a winning window. It’s going to require more creativity than ever to get that done.

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Are the Nuggets done as title contenders?

No. Not as long as Jokić is in his prime, and not as long as Murray can stay upright and healthy. No matter what happens the rest of the offseason, Denver is a prime threat to come out of the Western Conference and win a title. But they probably aren’t the best team or the second-best team in the league. They aren’t title favorites, but it’s unfair to strip them of the label of title contenders.

What does that mean? The Dallas Mavericks were contenders to get out of the Western Conference, not favorites. They caught fire and played well at the right time. They encountered some favorable matchups and they made the NBA Finals. Barring a major upgrade in the coming days, that’s probably where Denver is heading into next season. The Nuggets will win 50-plus games, provided they stay healthy. They will garner a high playoff seed. From there, it will be a battle for them.

It’s not an insurmountable place to be, just a more difficult place to be.


Required reading

Robbins: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope intends to sign 3-year, $66 million deal with Magic
NBA free agency 2024: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope leads top available shooting guards

(Photo of Jamal Murray and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: AAron Ontiveroz / The Denver Post)

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