Against the Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix and wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. made excellent plays near the end of regulation, putting the team in a position to tie or win the game. Down by one point with eight seconds left in regulation, Broncos head coach Sean Payton decided to go for the extra point, bringing the game to a 24-all score.

This led to overtime, where the Broncos eventually lost to the Bengals 30-24. While Payton’s decision to forego the two-point attempt may have seemed like the right one, it wasn’t, and there are a few reasons why. 

First up, you have the defense’s performance. Sure, the Broncos had two fourth-down stops on the Bengals’ first two drives and a fumble recovery. The Broncos also hadn’t forced a single Bengals punt in regulation. The Broncos defense allowed all but two of the Bengals’ drives to go for 50-plus yards, one of which was Patrick Surtain II’s forced fumble. 

Cornerback Riley Moss was exploited all game, and Ja’Quan McMillian was also a problem for the Broncos. Denver’s linebackers were having issues, and one of its two safeties played a good game.

The only aspect of the Broncos defense that had a strong showing overall was the defensive line and one of their outside linebackers. Nik Bonitto was held to a quiet game, and while Jonathon Cooper had some plays, he also made many mistakes. Dondrea Tillman had the best night of that group. 

With how the Broncos defense had performed until then, Payton was remiss in trusting them in overtime to keep the Bengals out of the end zone. It was great to see the Broncos force a punt on the Bengals’ first overtime drive, only to be let down by an offense that used a questionable play-calling sequence.

The Broncos allowed the Bengals to move down the field into field goal range. Cincy missed, which bailed out the defense, only for Nix and the offense to go three-and-out for the second time in overtime. 

The Broncos defense then crumbled, allowing the Bengals to move the ball downfield and score the game-winning touchdown. The Broncos defense had struggled all night, and, again, it was misguided at best and wrong at worst for Payton to trust them in overtime. While that’s the defense’s vulnerability was the biggest reason he was wrong to pass on the two-point attempt at the end of regulation, there were other factors, too.

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Now, regarding two-point conversions, Payton has attempted 48 of them as a head coach. He’s been successful on 21 two-point attempts in his coaching career, including 4-of-8 as Broncos head coach.

Another reason Payton erred by not attempting the two-point conversion is that this team is aggressive and was a play away from clinching a playoff spot. Even with the Kansas City Chiefs expected to rest starters next week, a win isn’t guaranteed for Denver. Payton built this team to be aggressive, and yet he was conservative at this moment. 

How do we know that? Well, Payton said it himself. The Broncos were ready to go for two until they realized a tie would still get them into the playoffs.

So, the Broncos played for the tie, which brings this back to the first point: Payton’s misguided trust in the defense. Payton’s offense wasn’t doing well for most of the game, but it got the job done against some pretty stiff odds, so keep trusting them to get this win. Going for two also would’ve sent a loud message to the whole team. 

Speaking of the offense getting the job done, that final drive wasn’t the prettiest, but they got into the end zone on an extraordinary play and catch. Momentum was with the Broncos, they were running the ball exceptionally well, and the football gods were giving them all the right breaks.

The Broncos would’ve had a lot of options open for what to call to get them the two yards, especially with Nix’s ability with his legs. Denver had the Bengals’ defense on its heels, especially with that final play, and Payton should’ve looked to exploit that. 

Yes, if the Broncos had failed on a two-point, they would have lost. However, that still would’ve been better than playing for the tie, as Payton admitted was a big part of his logic calculation.

When you play not to lose, you end up losing often. Broncos Country has seen this with multiple coaches over the years and even with Payton over the past two. He has a lot of trust in the quarterback he chose to lead this team, and in that critical moment, the chips were down, and Payton’s decision didn’t show trust in the young quarterback he handpicked.

What does the data say about overtime? Over the past 10 years in the NFL, the away team has won 41.6% of overtime games, with 6.11% ending in a tie, which is what Payton was playing for (more on that later). Playing for an overtime win came with a success probability of less than 50%, and that’s in a vacuum, without considering anything else. 

That’s a 43.75% success rate in his career and a 50% success rate as the Broncos coach. So, there is a combined 47.7% chance of an overtime win or tie for a road team compared to Payton’s 43.75% success rate on two-point conversions. When the other factors above come into play, attempting the two-point conversion would be the logical decision. 

Payton’s job isn’t dependent on a playoff spot, and he has two years (at least) before his seat even gets hot. With nine wins, he has this team overachieving this year, but in back-to-back games, his gaffes with end-of-half or end-of-game situations have hurt the team.

Yes, hindsight is 20/20 and many out there were okay with Payton’s decision to play for overtime. But let’s be clear; it was the wrong decision, and it came back to bite the Broncos.

Hopefully, it doesn’t blow back on Denver even more by losing to the Chiefs and missing the playoffs. The Broncos are still a win away, and they had their chance to clinch. Let’s hope the story ends differently in Denver’s last bite at the apple.

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