What’s harder to predict in August, snowfall at Colorado resorts in the middle of winter or the teams that will meet in the Super Bowl next February?

You might have a good feel for which two teams have the most talent, but what if one loses its star quarterback to a season-ending injury in November? You also might know that La Niña winters often result in above-average snowfall for Colorado’s high country, but sometimes La Niña winters result in well-below-average snow. That’s why meteorologists hedge when predicting conditions before Labor Day. Nevertheless, they try.

“I think the sports analogy is great,” says Alan Smith, a full-time meteorologist for the OpenSnow forecasting and reporting service. “You’re predicting future events, and you’re taking information that you have, but there’s so much information you don’t have, like injuries. You never know if a player on a team is going to suddenly explode that season – or regress.”

Still, anyone with an Epic or Ikon pass can’t help but wonder what kind of winter we will have. Labor Day is less than two weeks away, and the first Colorado ski area openings are apt to come in mid-October, most likely on man-made snow. So Smith provided his tentative 2024-2025 United States Winter Forecast Preview on the OpenSnow website.

Usually forecasts this time of year focus on the fluctuation of El Niño and La Niña in the eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator. Last ski season played out during a weak El Niño. Currently we’re in a transitional “neutral” status, but not for long.

“La Niña is favored to emerge during September-November (66% chance) and persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (74% chance during November-January),” according to the Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service, which has issued a La Niña watch.

What does that mean for skiers and snowboarders in Colorado? Like betting on the Super Bowl this time of year, it’s all about the odds.

“El Niño and La Niña tend to get rated from weak to moderate to strong,” Smith said. “We never know for sure, but the trends seem to be pointing toward a weaker episode this year.”

Smith researched the six most recent weak La Niñas to see how Colorado resorts fared.

“Four of the six years were snowier than average, so that’s pretty decent odds,” Smith said. “However, one of those was well-below average. “That was in 2017-18, a very dry winter. If you expand it out to look at all La Niña years, Colorado does seem to have a boom-or-bust potential with La Niña.

“It tips the odds slightly in favor of being an above-average winter in the ski regions of Colorado,”  he continued. “But sometimes the winters that end up below average that are La Niñas can be well below average.”

The winter of 2021-22 was a moderate La Niña and snowfall was decent, featuring a slow start but strong spring snows. The winter of 2022-23 was a weak La Niña that capped off a rare three-year “triple dip” La Niña. That was a fantastic season for Colorado resorts.

“November was cold and snowy,” Smith said of the 2022-23 winter. “It really jump-started the season, and it was consistent all season long — one of the most consistent winters I remember seeing.”

Last winter, under a strong El Niño, was slightly above average for snowfall. Now we get to guess the odds for this winter.

“There’s just so many factors you don’t know,” Smith said. “If you’re just looking at history, the odds tell us it’s slightly better than a 50-50 chance of being an above-average winter. But there’s always going to be that chance it could be a well-below-average winter.”

Colorado’s first ski area opening dates over the past five seasons

2019: Arapahoe Basin, Oct. 11

2020: Wolf Creek, Oct. 28

2021: Wolf Creek, Oct. 16

2022: Arapahoe Basin, Oct. 23

2023: Arapahoe Basin, Oct. 29

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Originally Published: August 21, 2024 at 11:03 a.m.