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The Future of Higher Education Enrollment in California

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The Future of Higher Education Enrollment in California


CCC’s uncertain future

As part of its projection of future transfers from the community colleges to CSU, the Enrollment Demand, Capacity Assessment, and Cost Analysis for Campus Sites study provides a pre-pandemic perspective on the future of community college enrollment (HOK et al. 2020a, HOK et al. 2020b). The study projects that community college enrollment among students taking 12 or more units per semester—a key indicator of the likelihood of transfer—would drop slightly from 2017 to 2035, with growth in the Central Valley and Inland Empire and declines in the Bay Area and Los Angeles. Alternatively, in its five-year capital outlay plan released in February 2024, the California Community College Chancellor’s Office projected 1.7 percent enrollment growth, an increase of over 24,000 students, from 2024–25 to 2028–29 (CCCCO 2024). While these differing projections reflect uncertainty about community college enrollment, increases over the past year suggest that growth may be possible. What does seem certain is CCC’s need for additional funding for capital facilities to accommodate any enrollment growth.

UC, CSU, and CCC Face Capital Facilities Funding Challenges

Historically, UC and CSU received capital facilities funding via voter-approved General Obligation (GO) bonds or lease-revenue bonds. However, no GO bonds have been approved since 2006. Funding streams have shifted since the systems were granted expanded debt-financing authority; funding now comprises a complex blend of debt instruments and revenue sources, including state bonds and loans, investment income, private investment, student fees, and philanthropy. It must be noted that CSU campuses have significantly less access to these sources than UC.

Local CCC districts—which have long made most of their own capital finance decisions and have the authority to tax and borrow—have been able to cover their capital needs. Still, all three systems have consistently stressed the need for capital facilities funding to support future enrollment growth. This need has not been sufficiently addressed in recent budget and compact targets, and state funding will likely be more difficult to secure given an uncertain budget future (UC 2023b, CSU 2023b, CCCCO 2024).

There is no state plan to address identified capital renewal needs, and the systems are facing growing maintenance backlogs (LAO 2023). Furthermore, the systems have all identified unmet funding needs for the construction of new facilities to accommodate growing student populations. SB 28, a bill that would have placed a $15.5 billion GO bond to fund K–16 facility construction on the March 2024 ballot was ultimately shelved. Future support for expanding student housing, in particular, remains uncertain. While the governor’s proposed budget for 2024–25 includes funding for the Higher Education Student Housing Grant (HESHG) program, which supports additional housing projects and helps maintain affordability among existing units, it also suspends significant investment in the California Student Housing Revolving Loan Fund Program, which provides zero-interest loans for below-market-rate student housing projects.

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In short, the state’s higher education systems are likely to continue to face significant shortfalls in much-needed capital facilities funding. Long-term development plans from the UC, CSU, and CCC suggest enrollment growth is a priority, but accommodating this growth requires sufficient capacity, which in turn requires funding.

UC and CSU Have Developed Growth Strategies in the Context of Capacity Constraints

As we have seen, UC and CSU have struggled to meet the short-term goals laid out in their multi-year compacts, and they may face longer-term headwinds due to changes in the state’s demographics. And even if demand rises due to increases in A–G completion, the systems may face persistent supply and capacity constraints. Promisingly, UC and CSU have strategized several ways and implemented various initiatives to promote enrollment growth, addressing demand-side challenges by expanding opportunities for students to access their institutions, and addressing supply-side challenges by using current capacity more efficiently.

Both UC and CSU have prioritized expanding intersegmental collaboration. In its 2022 Budget Compact Report, CSU cited multiple efforts to boost enrollment, including a new partnership with the Los Angeles Unified School District, as well as planned collaboration with CCCs to expand dual enrollment opportunities (CSU 2022). UC’s 2030 Capacity Plan explicitly highlights the system’s goal of increasing enrollment at campuses in the San Joaquin Valley and Inland Empire through various intersegmental and outreach efforts, including collaboration with the community college and K–16 systems to streamline freshmen and transfer pathways.

Both systems have explored ways to increase transfers from community colleges, piloting dual admissions programs that guarantee admission for community college students who were not initially admitted as freshmen applicants, and expanding pathways through their respective Associate Degree for Transfer (ADT) program, Transfer Admission Guarantee (TAG), University of California Transfer Pathways (UCTP), and Pathways+.

Removing barriers to access is also a priority. Many programs and campuses at UC and CSU are impacted, meaning they receive more eligible applicants than can be accommodated. This, in turn, results in stricter admissions criteria that makes it more difficult for otherwise-eligible students to be admitted. Some CSU campuses have recently discontinued impaction, removing stricter admissions criteria for many of their programs in an attempt to address low yield rates among redirected admits and increase enrollment among qualified applicants.

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At the same time, UC and CSU have embraced non-traditional growth strategies to increase enrollment in the context of current capacity constraints. Reducing the time it takes students to earn degrees not only helps campuses achieve their multi-year compact goals to increase graduation rates but also allows more new students to enroll. To reduce the time to degree, CSU and UC are providing more effective and tailored academic supports, offering expanded advising, improving their curricula, and scaling policies and practices that worked well during the pandemic.

The systems have also explored increasing online, summer, and off-campus offerings—including study abroad programs, off-campus internships, and partnerships with other institutions. Together, these efforts allow campuses to take in more students without having to expand their physical capacity.



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California coastal agency erodes climate and housing goals

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California coastal agency erodes climate and housing goals


In the midst of a burgeoning environmental movement, California voters in 1972 approved Proposition 20, which created the California Coastal Commission and gave it nearly dictatorial powers over development decisions along the state’s coastline.

Like with most state bureaucracies, Californians have come to accept it as part of the reality of life. Lawmakers have done little, even when the agency abuses its power by, say, fighting a disabled resident’s effort to build a wheelchair-friendly home or quashing a proposed desalination plant over concerns about its impact on plankton. The commission exerts power to reject projects as far as five miles inland.

Over the years, most of the complaints about the commission have come from conservatives and libertarians given the impact of its decisions on private property rights. In 2001, a judge found the agency to be unconstitutional because it wielded executive, legislative and judicial powers. The Legislature reacted quickly by changing the terms of commission appointments – and it has continued along its merry way ever since.

But now the commission is finally getting much-deserved scrutiny from other ideological factions. In recent years, YIMBYs (Yes In My Back Yarders) have battled against NIMBYs (Not In My Back Yarders) over development issues. The former have noted that the latter have used environmental laws to stop housing construction and transit projects that advance the state’s climate goals.

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A new report, “A Better Coastal Commission,” from an urbanist group called Circulate San Diego has launched a direct critique of the Coastal Commission. And while we don’t fully agree with the group’s pro-transit and high-density land-use goals, we believe it makes crucial points about how no-growth rules drive up housing prices by limiting supply. They also force people into longer commutes, thus undermining the state’s climate and transportation goals.

The report rehashes widely known statistics about housing affordability in the coastal zone – and notes that commission regulations significantly increased housing costs in coastal communities. Soaring coastal housing costs, it adds, has a ripple effect on prices even in non-coastal areas. That situation also has led to racial segregation, it explains, with home prices and rents in coastal areas becoming unattainable for large segments of the population.

The researchers provide “numerous examples where the Coastal Commission has resisted, opposed, and delayed the construction of deed-restricted affordable homes. … Similarly, this report documents examples where the Coastal Commission opposes projects that the Legislature encourages as a part of California’s efforts to combat climate change,” including bicycle lanes and infill developments. This offers fodder for YIMBYs who have battled the commission over bills to expand by-right development approvals to the coastal zone.

The commission took umbrage to the allegations, per a San Diego Union-Tribune report. For instance, commissioners argued that most of the highlighted projects ultimately gained approval. However, the Coastal Commission and its no-growth attitudes have no doubt slowed many projects – and discouraged developers from proposing them in the first place. It’s no surprise that regulations that limit development end up limiting the high-density, transit-oriented projects that many people on the Left seem to like.

Our solution is simple: Reduce the commission’s power and respect property rights. Then developments of all sorts can proceed. California might then gain the chance to address a housing-affordability crisis that is spiraling out of control.

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California doctor who drove Tesla off cliff with family inside won’t face trial, granted mental health diversion

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California doctor who drove Tesla off cliff with family inside won’t face trial, granted mental health diversion


The “suicidal” California doctor accused of intentionally driving his Tesla off a cliff with his wife and two young children inside won’t face trial for attempted murder as he is instead set to begin a mental health diversion program.

Dharmesh Patel, who was granted admission into the two-year program last Thursday at the San Mateo County Court, will remain in jail for “several weeks” before he’s released, the San Mateo District Attorney told NBC News.

The radiologist, who has spent the last 18 months behind bars. will be released from jail to his parent’s home where he will be ordered not to leave.

He will also have to report to court weekly for a progress report.

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Patel will be ordered to be tested twice a week “to show medication compliance,” and will have to abstain from drugs and alcohol while also forfeiting his driver’s license and passport, the outlet reported.

Dharmesh Patel won’t face trial for his attempted murder charges after his admittance into a mental health diversion program. David G. McIntyre for NY Post

The doctor will return to court on July 1 where details of his release will be determined, a spokesperson for District Attorney Stephen Wagstaffe told NBC News.

Judge Susan Jakubowski granted Patel admission to the program while the DA’s office “intensely” opposed it.

The radiologist appeared “by all accounts a kind and loving” father, said Jakubowski on Thursday, adding that Patel would be better served in treatment than in jail, the Mercury News reported.

Last week’s ruling was made after evidence was found showing Patel has major depressive disorder.

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Patel was accused of driving his Tesla Model Y off the 250-foot cliff off “Devil’s Slide” on Highway 1 and landing on the shore of the Pacific Ocean in Jan. 2023. AP
Miraculously, Patel, his wife and their two children — a 7-year-old daughter and 4-year-old son — all survived. Facebook/Neha Patel

In April two doctors testified in court that Patel suffered from “major depressive order” and experienced a “psychotic” break during the attempted murder-suicide on Jan. 2, 2023.

The Tesla Model Y plummeted off the 250-foot cliff off “Devil’s Slide” on Highway 1 and landed on the shore of the Pacific Ocean.

Miraculously, Patel, his wife and their two children — a 7-year-old daughter and 4-year-old son — all survived.

Patel was arrested and later charged with three counts of attempted murder. He initially pleaded not guilty to the charges saying the Tesla experienced a malfunction causing the car to careen off the cliff.

His wife Neha later told investigators her husband had suffered from depression before the crash.

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“He’s depressed. He’s a doctor. He said he was going to drive off the cliff. He purposefully drove off,” Neha told rescuers.

During his testimony, psychologist Mark Patterson said Patel’s delusions were provoked by the nation’s fentanyl crisis, the war in Ukraine and feared his children could be kidnapped and molested, which appeared to have been connected to Patel’s worries about accused sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein.

In May, Neha Patel begged prosecutors to drop the charges and admit her husband into the program.

In April two doctors testified in court that Patel suffered from “major depressive order” and experienced a “psychotic” break during the attempted murder-suicide. AP
Neha Patel later told investigators her husband had suffered from depression before the crash. Facebook/Neha Patel

“We need him in our lives and it has been over a year and a half since my children or I have seen or spoken to Dharmesh,” she said.

The doctor was deemed a good candidate for the program because he’s at low risk of injuring anyone else and has shown progress with his treatment since the crash, Patterson said.

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California Shelves Repeal of 1950 Housing Law That Stoked Racial Tension | KQED

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California Shelves Repeal of 1950 Housing Law That Stoked Racial Tension | KQED


“While SCA 2 was one of many efforts to help address the housing crisis, the November’s ballot will be very crowded, and reaching voters will be difficult and expensive,” Allen said in a statement. “In addition, the legislature recently passed my SB 469, which substantially addresses some of the most significant concerns about how Article 34 might be impacting housing production.”

SB 469 clarifies that the use of state affordable housing dollars does not trigger Article 34’s requirement for voter approval. Allen said his focus is on determining whether these efforts are “making a significant dent in addressing the problem,” adding that quickly building more affordable housing is a priority.

Backed by the California Real Estate Association, the forerunner to the current California Association of Realtors, Article 34 was first adopted by voters in 1950. Realtors played on voters’ fears that affordable housing would lead to greater racial integration of exclusively white neighborhoods.

CAR issued a formal apology in 2022 for its past support of Article 34, with association President Otto Catrina condemning the actions and vowing to address the legacy of its “discriminatory policies and practices.”

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The organization “remains a strong supporter of the repeal of Article 34 … which adds unnecessary hurdles and costs to the creation of affordable housing,” CAR spokesperson Sanjay Wagle said in a statement.

Wagle noted that a majority of Californians support repealing the provision but cited research showing a voter education campaign would be needed to explain the article’s effects.

“The cost of such a campaign in an election year with so many initiatives on the ballot made this campaign more costly and difficult, thus making it more logical to pursue a repeal on a future ballot,” Wagle wrote. “We thank Sen. Allen and Sen. Wiener for their efforts on this repeal effort and look forward to working [with] them and other stakeholders on this issue in the future.”





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