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Opinion: California’s young, progressive voters are shaping elections

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Opinion: California’s young, progressive voters are shaping elections


Each election yr it appears there’s a story about skyrocketing votes from younger folks. Each time it seems to not be true.

Living proof: there have been stories that younger folks turned out in such nice numbers this yr that they surpassed seniors. That’s not possible.

Wanting simply at California, among the many ballots now we have recorded to this point, there have been 3.2 million seniors who forged ballots among the many 5.1 million registered, however of the 6 million voters beneath 35, just one.3 million voted.

Seniors comprise 23% of voters however 36% of ballots forged; youthful voters are 27% of voters and solely 15% of ballots forged. This hole will slim a bit as we get ultimate numbers from county registrars, however the story will keep the identical: younger persons are massively underperforming.

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In case you assume California’s youth is very disengaged, that’s not true. Research present younger Californians are extra engaged, and our youthful voters have a better registration price than different states.

However there may be one other aspect of this coin.

Whereas youth turnout is disappointingly low, younger folks put their stamp on this election nonetheless — and it’s due to their way more strident ideological stances.

Seniors are balanced of their political leanings, with current polling from Capitol Weekly displaying that roughly 40% of voters over 35 years previous establish as moderates, with equal numbers contemplating themselves both liberal or conservative. This in distinction to the 25% of youthful voters who establish as moderates and are extra liberal than conservative at a 3-to-1 ratio.

Most strikingly, upwards of 40% of those younger voters contemplate themselves very liberal, whereas different age teams are in single-digits.

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We will see this in current polling that exhibits seniors in California favor Democrats by a 50% to 36% margin, whereas younger voters are polarized towards Democratic candidates at a 70% to 18% margin. On a generic poll query that requested in the event that they had been prone to help a Democratic or Republican candidate, seniors supported Democrats by an 18-point benefit whereas youthful voters supported Democrats by a whopping 56%. On progressive insurance policies like Gov. Gavin Newsom’s name to ban sale of gas-powered autos by 2035, seniors had been evenly cut up, however 18-34 year-olds had been way more supportive at 70%.

Seniors are reliably Democratic-leaning in California however modestly so. Youthful voters — even of their smaller numbers — are offering progressives with the overwhelming margins wanted to win elections.

A method through which we see this knowledge come to life is the “blue shift” within the post-election counting of ballots. Evaluation of the voters who’re having their votes counted within the batches of late-received (however postmarked on time) consists of giant numbers of youthful voters.

Within the early waves of vote-by-mail ballots, seniors had been outpacing younger voters by a 5 to 1 margin. However within the late ballots, a 3rd of ballots had been from younger voters and fewer than 15% from seniors. Democrats and left-leaning candidates in intra-party runoffs and municipal elections are gaining votes.

In Orange County, Democratic congressional members Katie Porter and Mike Levin and Supervisor Katrina Foley all had modest margins from mail voting, which was 45% seniors, and misplaced votes to their Republican challengers with in-person voters the place seniors outpaced younger voters. However within the late-processed mail vote, every shot to important victories with a inhabitants of voters that had 30% extra voters beneath 35 than seniors.

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Within the Los Angeles mayor’s race, the early vote favored Rep. Karen Bass however votes from Election Day gave businessman Rick Caruso a lead. Then ballots tallied after Election Day had extra younger voters than seniors, and so they got here in with a large 60%-to-40% margin for the extra progressive Bass, pushing her to a 6-point victory.

Splitting these ideas is essential. We don’t must proceed the false narrative that younger persons are voting greater than seniors — that’s simply not true and hides the true problem confronted with this inhabitants.

However we are able to acknowledge that the huge left-leaning nature of younger voters is driving election outcomes. They assist Democrats in California earn huge supermajorities within the Meeting and Senate, elect a congressional delegation that’s practically 4 to 1 Democratic, and supply help for the state’s environmental, homosexual rights, social, housing and different progressive agendas.

Younger folks in California and nationally are successfully serving to progressives win, and so they had been a pivotal election constituency in 2022. One can solely think about what it could appear like in the event that they doubled their turnout and met seniors head-on in a future election.

Paul Mitchell is vice chairman of Political Knowledge, a voter knowledge agency primarily based in California, and proprietor of Redistricting Companions, a agency which does municipal redistricting and consulting nationally. He wrote this commentary for CalMatters.

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California

Dickies to say goodbye to Texas, hello to Southern California

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Dickies to say goodbye to Texas, hello to Southern California


FORT WORTH, Texas — Dickies is leaving Cowtown for the California coast, according to a report from the Los Angeles Times.

The 102-year-old Texas workwear brand, which is owned by VF Corp., is making the move from Fort Worth to Costa Mesa in order to be closer to its sister brand, Vans.


What You Need To Know

  • Dickies headquarters will be relocated from Texas to California, according to a Los Angeles Times report 
  • The workwear brand has operated in Fort Worth since 1922
  • The report says the movie will occur in May 2025 and affect about 120 employees 
  • Dickies headquarters is being moved by owner VF Corp. so that it can be closer to its sister brand, Vans

Dickies was founded in Fort Worth in 1922 by E.E. “Colonel” Dickie. Today, Dickies Arena is the entertainment hub of the city and home of the Fort Worth Stock Show and Rodeo.

The company is expected to make the move by May. Approximately 120 employees will be affected, the report said.

By moving one of its offices closer to the other, VF Corp. says it can “consolidate its real estate portfolio,” as well as “create an even more vibrant campus,” Ashley McCormack, director of external communications at VF Corp. said in the report.

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Dickies isn’t the only rugged brand owned by VF Corp. The company also has ownership of Timberland, The North Face and JanSport.

VF Corp. acquired Dickies in 2017 for $820 million. 

“Their contributions to our city’s culture, economy and identity are immeasurable,” District 9 City Council member Elizabeth Beck, who represents the area of downtown Fort Worth where Dickies headquarters is currently located, said in a statement to the Fort Worth Report. “While we understand their business decision, it is bittersweet to see a company that started right here in Fort Worth take this next step. We are committed to supporting the employees who remain here and will work to honor the lasting imprint Dickies has left on our community.”



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Caitlyn Jenner says she'd 'destroy' Kamala Harris in hypothetical race to be CA gov

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Caitlyn Jenner says she'd 'destroy' Kamala Harris in hypothetical race to be CA gov


Caitlyn Jenner, the gold-medal Olympian-turned reality TV personality, is considering another run for Governor of California. This time, she says, if she were to go up against Vice President Kamala Harris, she would “destroy her.” 

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Jenner, who publicly came out as transgender nearly 10 years ago, made a foray into politics when she ran as a Republican during the recall election that attempted to unseat Gov. Gavin Newsom in 2021. Jenner only received one percent of the vote and was not considered a serious candidate. 

Jenner posted this week on social media that she’s having conversations with “many people” and hopes to have an announcement soon about whether she will run. 

Caitlyn Jenner speaks at the 4th annual Womens March LA: Women Rising at Pershing Square on January 18, 2020 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Chelsea Guglielmino/Getty Images)

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She has also posted in Trumpian-style all caps: “MAKE CA GREAT AGAIN!”

As for VP Harris, she has not indicated any future plans for when she leaves office. However, a recent poll suggests Harris would have a sizable advantage should she decide to run in 2026. At that point, Newsom cannot run again because of term limits. 

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If Jenner decides to run and wins, it would mark the nation and state’s first transgender governor.  



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Northern California 6-year-old, parents hailed as heroes for saving woman who crashed into canal

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Northern California 6-year-old, parents hailed as heroes for saving woman who crashed into canal


LIVE OAK — A six-year-old and her parents are being called heroes by a Northern California community for jumping into a canal to save a 75-year-old woman who drove off the road. 

It happened on Larkin Road near Paseo Avenue in the Sutter County community of Live Oak on Monday. 

“I just about lost her, but I didn’t,” said Terry Carpenter, husband of the woman who was rescued. “We got more chances.” 

Terry said his wife of 33 years, Robin Carpenter, is the love of his life and soulmate. He is grateful he has been granted more time to spend with her after she survived her car crashing off a two-lane road and overturning into a canal. 

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“She’s doing really well,” Terry said. “No broken bones, praise the Lord.” 

It is what some call a miracle that could have had a much different outcome without a family of good Samaritans. 

“Her lips were purple,” said Ashley Martin, who helped rescue the woman. “There wasn’t a breath at all. I was scared.” 

Martin and her husband, Cyle Johnson, are being hailed heroes by the Live Oak community for jumping into the canal, cutting Robin out of her seat belt and pulling her head above water until first responders arrived. 

“She was literally submerged underwater,” Martin said. “She had a back brace on. Apparently, she just had back surgery. So, I grabbed her brace from down below and I flipped her upward just in a quick motion to get her out of that water.” 

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The couple said the real hero was their six-year-old daughter, Cayleigh Johnson. 

“It was scary,” Cayleigh said. “So the car was going like this, and it just went boom, right into the ditch.” 

Cayleigh was playing outside and screamed for her parents who were inside the house near the canal.

I spoke with Robin from her hospital bed over the phone who told us she is in a lot of pain but grateful.

“The thing I can remember is I started falling asleep and then I was going over the bump and I went into the ditch and that’s all I remember,” Robin said. 

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It was a split-second decision for a family who firefighters said helped save a stranger’s life. 

“It’s pretty unique that someone would jump in and help somebody that they don’t even know,” said Battalion Chief for Sutter County Fire Richard Epperson. 

Robin is hopeful that she will be released from the hospital on Wednesday in time to be home for Thanksgiving. 

“She gets Thanksgiving and Christmas now with her family and grandkids,” Martin said. 

Terry and Robin are looking forward to eventually meeting the family who helped save Robin’s life. The family expressed the same feelings about meeting the woman they helped when she is out of the hospital. 

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“I can’t wait for my baby to get home,” Terry said. 



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