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California’s Loss Is Texas’s Gain

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California’s Loss Is Texas’s Gain


Texas’s border situation is messy, but its economy remains strong and has been for years. Recently released data show that from 2010 to 2019 Texas led the nation in job gains from business relocations. Meanwhile, California led the nation in job losses from relocations. Texas’s economic model of low taxes and modest regulation continues to outcompete California’s high-tax, high-regulation model for businesses and residents.

A new analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas of recently released National Establishment Time Series data confirms that Texas has been a magnet for businesses. From 2000 to 2019, more businesses moved to Texas than left, and the gap between in-migration and out-migration widened in the years just before the pandemic, as shown in the figure below.

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From 2010 to 2019, over 25,000 businesses and 281,000 jobs relocated to Texas from other states. Some businesses and jobs left, too, but on net Texas gained 7,232 businesses and almost 103,000 jobs. Over this period, Texas was second in net businesses gained, behind Florida, and first in net jobs gained, ahead of Florida, Georgia, Michigan, and Arizona. California, New York, and New Jersey had the largest net job losses as shown below.

Many of the jobs that left California ended up in Texas. Over 44,000 jobs left California for Texas, while only 14,700 jobs moved the other way. Oklahoma and New Jersey also sent thousands of jobs to Texas, while Nevada and Virginia gained the most jobs from Texas.

The proximity of Oklahoma to Texas partially explains the flow of businesses and jobs between them, but proximity does not explain the large inflow of jobs from California and New Jersey. Instead, it suggests that entrepreneurs and workers left these two highly regulated, high-tax states to look for success in Texas, a state with lower taxes, cheaper housing, and an overall friendlier business climate. Dozens of studies show that taxes and regulation impact where businesses and workers locate, and the Dallas Fed’s analysis provides further evidence.

Texas is a big state, so when a business decides to move there, it has a lot of places to choose from. The Dallas Fed’s analysis shows that businesses that moved to Texas mostly chose Dallas or Houston. Both metro areas gained more than 80,000 jobs from relocations from 2010 to 2019. Fort Worth, Austin, and San Antonio each gained less than half as many jobs. This may be surprising given how often we hear stories of tech firms moving to Austin, but it reminds us that high-profile moves like Tesla’s
TSLA
relocation from Palo Alto to Austin are just a small share of all business relocations.

Texas’s success at attracting businesses and jobs over the last decade reminds us that basic insights from economics remain true. People will move to states that allow them to experiment, innovate, and expand their businesses, like Texas, and leave states that bind them in rolls of red tape, like California and New York. People also prefer states with lower taxes since this allows them to keep more of what they earn, whether as workers or entrepreneurs. If nothing changes, we should expect the 2020s to look like the 2010s: States such as Texas and Florida will continue to grow while California and New York stagnate or decline.

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California’s gubernatorial race heats up as Newsom’s term nears end, with many contenders

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California’s gubernatorial race heats up as Newsom’s term nears end, with many contenders


In just over a year, Gavin Newsom’s term as California’s governor will come to an end, capping off nearly eight years in office.

Now the question is – who will take over once he steps down?

We spoke to political scientist Nathan Monroe about what could be one of Californias most unpredictable gubernatorial races yet.

With Governor Gavin Newsom’s term ending, the race to replace him begins.

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This race will determine who leads the worlds fifth largest economy at a time when California is facing issues such as housing and affordability.

Californias next gubernatorial election is shaping up to be crowded – and for the first time in years – there’s no incumbent on the ballot.

“You say, well, just which democrat is going to win, right? Like, sort of republicans don’t have a shot. But what we have to keep in mind, right, is that the rules of elections matter. And in California, we have the top two primary system,” said Nathan Monroe, a Political Science Professor at UC Merced.

More than a dozen candidates are vying for the spot.

On the democratic side, contenders include former U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier barrera, former U.S. Representative Katie Porter, Representative Eric Swalwell, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and former State Controller Betty Yee.

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Political experts say the size of the field could make turnout and name recognition decisive and could lead to unexpected results in the primary.

“But if you divide that pie up by just two, and you divide the democratic pie up, which is admittedly a larger pie, by 7 or 8, the concern you get here is that democrats are going to lose out on even running to the general election. So even though there might be more democratic votes to be found in California for governor, they might not have a shot to cast those ballots for a democrat on the general election ballot,” said Monroe.

Monroe says party leaders may need to step in soon.

“I think the concern has to be among voters and I’m sure among the party leaders, so to speak, right, the party leaders sort of amorphously, is that they’ve got to figure out a way to delicately, you know, assure some candidates out of the race and figure out which candidates those should be and figure out how to manage those personalities and try to coordinate all the things that go in and around a gubernatorial election,” said Monroe.

On the Republican side, former Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and Fox News contributor Steve Hilton.

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With just a few months from the midterm elections, Monroe says both parties need to organize.

“What’s happening behind the scenes for the parties to try to coordinate themselves to make sure that the field that they offer to voters in June is a field that gives them the best chance for their best candidate to go forward to the general election,” said Monroe.

The primary election is set for June, with the general election in December.



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Heavy rain, high tides cause flooding along stretch of Northern California

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Heavy rain, high tides cause flooding along stretch of Northern California


CORTE MADERA, Calif. (AP) — Heavy rain and high tides believed to be the most severe in two decades caused flooding in parts of Northern California on Saturday, prompting road closures and rescues of residents trapped in their cars.

Roadways through a 15-mile (24-kilometer) stretch from the Sausalito area to San Rafael were flooded after a downpour coincided with record-breaking “ King Tides,” Marin County Sheriff’s Sgt. Michael Dobbins said.

No injuries were reported but authorities were called to assist when cars got stuck in floodwater as high as three and four feet (1.1 and 1.2 meters), he said.

“There is a lot of water in the roadways,” Dobbins said, adding the tides were reportedly the highest in more than two decades. “Along with heavy rains, it just created the perfect storm for flooding on the streets.”

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Authorities in the communities near San Francisco asked residents to stay home wherever possible until waters recede. Some residents kayaked along what normally would be city streets. Others waded out in water that passed their knees.

A flood warning was in place for the San Francisco area until 2 p.m. Saturday and an advisory until 2 p.m. Sunday, according to the National Weather Service in San Francisco.

King Tides occur when the sun, moon and Earth are in alignment and the moon is in its closest position to the Earth, creating a stronger gravitational pull.





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UPDATE: Crash at California/Dakota

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UPDATE: Crash at California/Dakota


10:06 PM: Police are arriving at the scene of a two-vehicle crash reported at California/Dakota, with at least two people hurt.

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11:06 PM: Police have just reopened the street. We went to the scene after a report that one vehicle had ended up on the lawn of a church – First Lutheran Church of West Seattle (WSB sponsor) – is on the southwest corner – but all we could see was one vehicle on the sidewalk. We’re following up with SFD regarding the people who were hurt.





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