Falling mortgage rates should come with a warning label stating: “Be careful what you wish for!”

This summer’s cheaper home loans ignited real estate buzz suggesting California’s two-year homebuying slump may be nearing its end.

The Federal Reserve’s lengthy battle against inflation – fueled by higher interest rates – helped make California homebuying nearly impossible for most house hunters. But mid-2024’s moderating cost of living, plus overall economic lethargy, has already trimmed mortgage rates off 20-year highs. Come September, the Fed is expected to begin cutting its benchmark rates.

Yes, lower rates mildly prune California’s huge affordability challenges. Some industry insiders even speculate these savings could create a rush to buy, forcing California prices even higher.

But the same cheaper mortgages that lead to a “buy now” narrative are often signals of economic trouble. Remember, interest rates typically fall when the business climate cools.

By the numbers

To contemplate the mix of rates and pricing, I filled my trusty spreadsheet with these stats dating to 1977: the average 30-year mortgage from Freddie Mac, California home price data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency, and what you may think is an odd number: the state’s unemployment rate from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Consider what we learn when slicing history into 12-month periods, simply based on whether mortgage rates got pricier or cheaper over the past 47 years.

When mortgage rates grew over a year’s time, California home prices averaged 10%-a-year gains.

Then look at what happens when mortgage rates fell. California prices gained only 4.4% on average. Yes, less than half.

Now, let’s not blindly cheer rising rates. Think about a theoretical buyer’s house payment using math that combines these pricing patterns and rate swings.

When rates rise over a year, estimated California house payments jumped 21% on average. Pricier homes plus pricier loans is a painful bite to the wallet. But buyers seem willing to pay up.

Conversely, payments in times of falling rates dropped by 2.6% a year on average. So it’s the cheaper money that creates whatever meager affordability exists in California.

Now, these results may seem illogical as pictured through a traditional real estate lens. But take a broader view of the economy and ponder the cyclical health of California’s job market.

When mortgage rates rose during the past half century, the statewide unemployment was falling by 0.7 percentage points per year on average. Basically, interest rates rise when times are good and bosses are hiring.

Unfortunately, when the economy gets too hot – such we saw in 2021 to 2023 – the bond market and/or the Fed may play Grinch, pushing up interest rates, and spoiling the economic party.

Contrast that pattern to how the economy performs when loan rates decline during the past half century: California joblessness was increasing by 0.3 percentage points. So fewer jobs, less demand for all sorts of goods and services – and a Fed more willing to help.

Bottom line

Don’t overthink housing’s sometimes myopic data. It’s really about real estate’s three pillars: “Jobs. Jobs. Jobs.”

In the past 47 years, when jobs are scarce and unemployment rises in a year, California home prices average 2% gains. When unemployment drops, prices rise 9%.

Please note that California joblessness has been above 5% for 10 months, after reaching an all-time low of 3.8% in August 2022.

You see, successful house hunting requires not only a paycheck – but confidence that you’ll remain employed. And cheaper mortgages frequently come with a weaker business climate and depressed consumer confidence.

That can make California house hunters think twice about paying top dollar for housing. It’s a key reason why you see weaker pricing when rates are down.

Of course, every cycle is different. Maybe the odd post-pandemic real estate market will act unlike the statistical norms shown by this math.

Ponder history’s extremes. Prices jumped 29% with lower rates in the year ended in September 2004. But cheaper mortgages did not prevent a 23% drop in the 12 months ended September 2008.

So summer 2024 might be a “buy now” moment with tumbling rates helping to push California home prices skyward. But the true catalyst would be an economy that nails an Olympic-quality soft landing with few job losses.

My spreadsheet also tells me that since 1977 when mortgages got cheaper in a year, California home prices rose 67% of the time. Not bad odds.

But when rates were rising, price gains came 85% of the time.

Postscript

The economic fallout of cheaper mortgages has modestly varied in the past half century, depending on the size of the rate drops. Ponder these California examples of one-year dips …

Rates down half-percentage-point or more: Home prices rose 3.6% in 12 months on average in these situations. Again, a weak economy, as California’s unemployment rate averaged a 0.9-point increase in a year.

Off three-quarters-point or more: Prices up 2.5%. Unemployment up 1.1 points.

Off 1 point or more: Prices rise 4.2%. Unemployment up 0.6 points.

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com

Originally Published: August 8, 2024 at 8:08 a.m.