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America’s falling out of love with its California Dream—and housing costs are a major reason why, report says

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We all know people moved during the pandemic; with a newfound ability to work from anywhere, many migrated to the Sunbelt. Between April 2020 and July 2023, Census Bureau data shows the population in the South rose by nearly four million people. 

But the real story, according to a Bank of America research note released Monday, is what’s happening in the West. 

“While this rise is sometimes discussed in the context of the pandemic, in many ways it is not new ‘news’—the South’s share of U.S. population has been rising for a long time,” the bank said. “The real story, arguably, is the decline in the share of population of the West…its share of overall U.S. population has flattened, and now appears to be falling.”

For the first time since World War II, the share of Americans living in the West has fallen. 

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Bank of America’s data reveals population growth across major metropolitan areas in the West is declining compared to the prior year, with Las Vegas being the exception. “The fall in population growth in the West is more of a Pacific story,” the bank said—with a chart showing declines in population growth across San Diego, Portland, Seattle, Los Angeles, and San Francisco, with the latter two cities leading the declines. 

But why are people giving up on the West Coast, and maybe even their dreams of living in California? It’s simple: housing costs. 

“We believe relative housing affordability remains a key part of the story,” the bank said. Major metropolitan areas with higher median mortgage payments have experienced negative population growth or, at best, weakly positive growth annually, according to Bank of America. 

“Looking at the [metropolitan statistical areas] in the Pacific states in the West, they all tend to have higher-than-average mortgage payments relative to the U.S,” the bank said. “By contrast, in the southern Mountain states, mortgage payments are lower than the U.S. average, so outward migration is potentially a reaction to housing costs.”

San Francisco and Los Angeles experienced the largest population losses, while San Antonio and Austin saw some of the biggest increases. In terms of housing costs, it’s not difficult to understand why that is. The average home value in Los Angeles is $918,087; in San Francisco, it’s $1,216,087. Meanwhile, the average home value in Austin is $527,205. In San Antonio, it’s just $251,545, per Zillow. 

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Let’s do the math: The monthly mortgage payment on, let’s say, a million-dollar home after putting 20% down at a 7% 30-year fixed mortgage rate (not including taxes and insurance) would be around $5,300. That’s a lot more than what you’d typically pay living in San Antonio or Austin. 

The relationship between migration and housing costs is not perfect: Phoenix’s population, for instance, fell slightly over the last year, despite the fact the city does not have relatively high mortgage payments. But the metropolitan population is up substantially compared to the first quarter of 2020, which suggests “relative housing costs do exercise some ‘gravitational pull’ on population flows, even if shorter-term factors also make an impact.” 

Over time, Bank of America expects domestic migration flows across the country “to lead to some ironing-out in relative housing costs” among the metropolitan areas losing residents. The bank believes it’s likely those regions would see reduced pressure on home prices and rents, which would eventually equate to cheaper housing costs—although, that’s in comparison to areas currently seeing spikes in their population growth.

“Interestingly, our data also shows a relatively high proportion of higher-income households in the outflow of people from [metropolitan statistical areas] in the West to the South, which could boost demand for housing in southern [metropolitan statistical areas] by more than a straightforward count of the people leaving would suggest,” the bank said. “Likewise, the West may find demand for housing weakening more if higher-income households are leaving.”

More than 40% of people leaving the West for the South had incomes above $125,000, and over 10% had incomes above $250,000. Even so, the bank’s data found that a higher proportion of those leaving the West are one-person households. It’s mostly single-person households leaving Los Angeles and San Francisco. So if we assume they’re flexible to changes in the economy, they might return eventually. 

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“Overall, as the pandemic itself fades as an influence, whether the internal migration flows we have observed in Bank of America internal data will continue or ease is an open question,” the bank said. “While current patterns may seem entrenched, over time, we think relative housing cost adjustment is likely to have an impact.”

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California

Southern California residents say HOA made them take down American flags

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Southern California residents say HOA made them take down American flags


Residents in a neighborhood in Southern California said that their homeowners association has threatened to fine them if they don’t take down the American flags displayed outside their homes.

Amy and Chris Cooke and their neighbor Terri Collins live in San Marcos, which is located in San Diego County.

They said that they could potentially face a $100 fine if they keep the flags displayed outside their homes, according to the Daily Wire.

“I’m not taking my flag down,” Collins said. “They can fine me, $100, $200, $1,000, I’m not paying it.”

Collins said that the neighborhood is very patriotic because it is located close to the former Miramar Navy Air Station.

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She said that “all the Top Gun pilots lived here.”

The neighbors said that ever since President Donald Trump won the 2024 election, the HOA has enforced the rule about flags.

“Once the members allow use of a common property by an owner to express what is essentially a political or affiliative view in a flag, other owners will want to do the same and the common area will degrade,” a letter from the HOA reads.

Homeowners were told that flags displayed in “exclusive use” areas like backyards.

An HOA attorney told the Daily Wire HOAs “count on the fact that homeowners don’t know better and might be scared.”

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“I would tell these people to stand firm and under no circumstances should they remove that flag,” he told the outlet.



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What you should know about the $351.7 billion state budget Newsom just signed

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What you should know about the 1.7 billion state budget Newsom just signed


Gov. Gavin Newsom on Monday signed his final state budget as governor, a $351.7-billion spending plan that seeks to uplift the poorest Californians through a tax system reliant on the stock market gains of the wealthy.

In a video message, Newsom extolled free school meals, universal transitional kindergarten, 130,000 subsidized childcare slots and other accomplishments in his tenure at the state Capitol, a period in state history marked by a dramatic expansion of state government and over $100 billion in increased spending.

“Over the past eight years, we built great things for the people of California — some of the boldest actions any government in this country has taken in a generation,” Newsom said. “And we did this without breaking the bank. We did this by design.”

The agreement ends weeks of lobbying by outside interests and negotiations among lawmakers and the governor at the state Capitol about how to handle a surge of income tax collected on stock market gains related to artificial intelligence.

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Economists have warned that the revenue bump is potentially temporary and analysts say the growth in state spending could leave California in a challenging position if the economy declines.

Assemblymember David Tangipa (R-Fresno) agreed with Democrats that the budget is “compassionate.”

“My fear is that it’s not too much of a competent budget, and the budget continues a pattern that Californians know all too well: Spend now, justify it later, and hope somebody else pays the bill,” he said during a floor debate Monday.

Here’s what you need to know about the spending plan, which takes effect July 1.

Who decides the state budget?

The simplest answer is: Democrats. California voters have elected Democrats to represent 30 of the 40 seats in the Senate and 60 seats of the 80 seats in the Assembly. The budget was passed through a majority vote in each house of the Legislature and signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom, also a Democrat.

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A more complex answer is that the budget is a product of dozens of legislative hearings, millions of dollars spent on lobbying by outside interests, talks among lawmakers and the governor and ultimately subject to the same political dynamics that rule the Democratic party.

Senate President Pro Tem Monique Limón (D-Goleta) and Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas (D-Hollister), in consultation with the chairs of the budget committees, represent their Democratic caucuses and reach a final agreement on the details of the spending plan with Newsom. In reality, staff members for the three parties handle most, if not all, of the back of forth negotiations to get there.

Union leaders seeking better pay, working conditions, benefits for workers and opportunities to expand their ranks are often brought in to consult or hammer out thorny deals as business groups try to fight off more regulations, taxes and costs, and support policies that increase their financial performance.

Democrats are spending more than ever before. How is that possible?

The Legislative Analyst’s Office, the nonpartisan fiscal advisor for lawmakers, recently examined the increase in state spending since 2019-20, Newsom’s first full year in office.

Between the budget approved that year and the spending proposal Newsom unveiled in January, spending from the state’s main operating fund had grown by over $100 billion, or 70%. That was largely by a 60% increase in revenue during that time. California typically operates with a spending deficit because Democrats spend more money than the state brings in.

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The LAO found that the increase in spending stemmed from the growing cost of sustaining programs and services that were already in place when Newsom took office. About 30% of the remaining spending growth was categorized as new, either by newly created programs or the expansion of existing services.

Among the report’s conclusions: California could not afford the programs that predated Newsom and the ones he and the Legislature adopted.

To balance the budget over the last few years, Newsom and lawmakers have dipped into the state’s reserves at a time when California is experiencing strong revenue growth, which the LAO has cautioned against. Democrats have also increased taxes on businesses, paid for programs out of other funds and suspended reserve deposits among other solutions.

This year, the state budget places $6.4 billion in higher than expected revenue into a temporary holding account to knock down a deficit and balance the budget through 2027-28.

Democrats are pursuing a change to the state constitution on the November ballot that would allow them to set aside more money in years of good revenue growth to prevent cuts in future downturns.

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Where is the money going?

Education and Medi-Cal are the two largest costs for the state.

Medi-Cal is the state’s version of subsidized health insurance for low-income Californians and provides medical, dental and vision care for an estimated 14.5 million people, or about one-third of the state population.

The federal government pays for more than half of the cost of the program. California is expected to spend about $50 billion from the general fund next year out of a total estimated at more than $220 billion in costs shared between the state and federal government, according to the LAO. State taxes and fees on providers also help fund Medi-Cal.

Overall, Medi-Cal costs more than any other state program and takes up about 40% of total spending, including federal funds the state receives, according to the LAO.

Spending on Medi-Cal has more than doubled over the last 10 years, which the LAO attributes to an increase in costs per enrollee, more enrollees and a greater share of seniors seeking care, among other factors.

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Under Newsom, California has expanded Medi-Cal, including offering coverage to include all immigrants regardless of their immigration status, which the governor said has dropped the state’s uninsured rate down to 5.9%

The cost of Medi-Cal has grown beyond what Democrats expected and resulted in Newsom suggesting spending cuts.

The final budget agreement rejects a call by Newsom to lower the asset limit to $2,000 now and instead lowers it to $21,000 in 2027-28 to be eligible for Medi-Cal. The Legislature also delayed the governor’s proposal to reduce dental coverage and shift asylum seekers and other immigrants to restricted scope Medi-Cal, according to Jason Sisney, the lead budget advisor for the Assembly who posts about the budget on Substack.

The budget includes Newsom’s proposal to shift enrollees with unsatisfactory immigration status, a term that includes undocumented immigrants and others, from managed care to fee-for-service to save costs.

Under Proposition 98, approved by voters in 1988, California has a minimum funding guarantee for schools and community colleges and dedicates roughly 40% of general fund revenue to education.

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Sisney said the budget increases the Local Control Funding Formula by $2.2 billion and provides historic general fund per pupil spending of $21,148. Support for special education also grew by $1.8 billion.

The California Community Schools Partnership Program received a $1-billion boost and Democrats directed $2.8 million in additional funding to the program that provides free meals for school children.

The budget also establishes 22,770 new slots for free or reduced childcare, which Newsom had proposed decreasing.



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Suspected Northern California library shooter charged with murder, faces life in prison

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Suspected Northern California library shooter charged with murder, faces life in prison


OROVILLE — Bradley Scott Sayer was charged with two counts of first-degree murder and discharge of firearm with injury during his arraignment Thursday at the Butte County Superior Court.

Sayer, 18, is the suspect in the Chico library shooting on Monday in which two men were killed, and he could face life in prison. If convicted, Sayer is facing the highest penalty for capital murder with special circumstances, which would be life in prison without the possibility of parole. Butte County District Attorney Mike Ramsey, who is the prosecutor of the case, said the court is not seeking the death penalty.

Sayer was not given bail, as Ramsey said the court felt Sayer was “too dangerous.” Ramsey also said Sayer is on suicide watch in at the Butte County Jail.

“We felt that it would be too dangerous to let him go at this juncture,” Ramsey said. “He planned a mass shooting, and there’s no reason to believe that if he was let go, that he wouldn’t continue to do that.”

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During a press conference Thursday, June 25, 2026 in Oroville, California, Butte County District Attorney Mike Ramsey addresses the series of events leading up to the shooting and honors the two people killed in a shooting at the Chico library on Monday. (Lexi Lynn/Enterprise-Record) 



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