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Opinion: Even blue-leaning Arizona border counties roared at the polls for Trump

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Opinion: Even blue-leaning Arizona border counties roared at the polls for Trump



Cochise, Santa Cruz and Yuma counties served as the front line of Biden and Harris’ border policies, and they didn’t like what they saw.

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As Arizona political junkies feverishly refresh their screens for the remaining votes to be counted, the early numbers reveal one reason Donald Trump is poised to win the state he lost four years ago.

Call it the revenge of the border counties.

Based on the count so far, Pima County didn’t change its voting pattern. In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Trump by 18 percentage points, and Kamala Harris appears to have maintained that lead with a 17 percent advantage as of Thursday morning.

Most of Pima County’s border with Mexico is part of the sparsely populated Tohono O’odham Nation. The vast majority of residents live well to the north, in and around Tucson.

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The story is much different in the three remaining border counties.

Trump gained, even in blue-leaning counties

Trump defeated Biden in Cochise County, located in the southeast corner of the state.

In 2020, the Republican received 58% of the vote, compared to the Democrat’s 39%. Despite Cochise County’s previous red leanings, Trump vastly improved his performance in 2024.

So far, Trump holds a massive 68%-31% lead over Harris.

Santa Cruz, with its county seat in Nogales, is a reliable Democratic stronghold. In 2020, Biden received a whopping 67% of the vote, with Trump garnering just 32%.

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This year brought a big change. Trump gained eight percentage points, with the vote total on Thursday standing at Harris 59%, Trump 40%. This is significant for a county in which 82% of residents are Latino.

That leaves the last border county, Yuma, in Arizona’s southwest corner. In the previous presidential election, Trump bested Biden 52% to 46%. This time, Trump had 65% on Thursday, compared to Harris’ 35%.

Biden-Harris’ border policies are likely to blame

What could account for the 10-point shift to Trump in Cochise County? The eight-point GOP gain in Santa Cruz? And finally, the 13-point red wave in Yuma County?

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Each served as the front line of Biden and Harris’ disastrous border policies.

While politicians bickered in Washington, undocumented migrants passed through these desert regions, disrupting the small communities and taxing their limited public services.

The numbers of migrants are truly staggering.

U.S. Customs and Border Patrol has divided our southern border into several sections, two of which cover Arizona. The Tucson Sector accounts for the border from the New Mexico state line to Yuma County.

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The Yuma Sector handles the 126 miles from the Pima county line to the Imperial Sand Dunes in California. The California portion of this sector has been fenced since the 1990s, dramatically reducing the encounters along their area.

Arizona border counties roared at the polls

Adding up the border crossings from fiscal 2021 to fiscal 2024 demonstrates the Biden-Harris administration’s failure to provide basic security.

The Tucson Sector had 1,280,408 encounters. The Yuma Sector had 652,660 encounters.

Over Biden and Harris’ single term, Arizona’s four border counties had more than 1.9 million undocumented migrants pass through. When residents complained, the national media shrugged it off, often blaming racism, despite the high numbers of Latinos living there.

Of course, when a small number of migrants were flown to the elite enclave of Martha’s Vineyard, the Massachusetts National Guard had them bused out within hours. The wealthy playground couldn’t tolerate the crushing influx of 50 uninvited guests.

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That’s for struggling border towns like Douglas, Nogales or Yuma to handle.

America has long welcomed immigrants, a fact demonstrated by our liberal naturalization laws. We want people to become citizens. But the unregulated entry of 1.9 million people into a single state alarms Americans of all backgrounds.

Tired of being ignored for years, Arizona’s border counties finally made their voices heard.

This time at the ballot box.

Jon Gabriel, a Mesa resident, is editor-in-chief of Ricochet.com and a contributor to The Arizona Republic and azcentral.com. On X, formerly Twitter: @exjon.

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Trump issues rare dual endorsement in Arizona swing district

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Trump issues rare dual endorsement in Arizona swing district


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  • The president praised both Jay Feely and Gina Swoboda as “Highly Respected America First Patriots.”
  • The president’s team had not publicly confirmed his endorsement of Swoboda before the Jan. 6 social media post.
  • The district, which includes wealthy pockets of Paradise Valley, Scottsdale, and north Phoenix, has a hot-and-cold relationship with the president.

President Donald Trump endorsed not one but two Republicans in a highly watched Arizona congressional primary, boosting a new candidate after his first pick met resistance from some in the GOP.

In a Jan. 6 social media post, Trump said he was backing Jay Feely, a former Cardinals kicker and sports commentator who recently switched his campaign into Arizona’s Scottsdale-area 1st Congressional District, in addition to Gina Swoboda, the state GOP chair whose candidacy has divided Republicans despite her securing Trump’s support in October.

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The president praised both Feely and Swoboda as “Highly Respected America First Patriots.”

“JAY OR GINA WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!” he wrote on Truth Social, the social media platform he owns.

The announcement is a blow to Swoboda, a polarizing figure among Arizona Republicans. Her longtime rivalry with Turning Point, the network of conservative advocacy groups founded by the late activist Charlie Kirk, has shadowed her candidacy, prompting attacks and infighting among Arizona Republicans.

The president’s team had not publicly confirmed his endorsement of Swoboda before the Jan. 6 social media post.

In an interview with The Arizona Republic, Feely said he thought the endorsement came back to his “friendship” and shared values with the president.

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“I love what he’s doing. I believe in what he’s doing. I’m committed to the same principles that he and his administration have,” Feely said.

“We wish Gilbert resident Jay Feely well in his latest campaign for Congress, but nothing has changed,” Swoboda campaign consultant Chris Baker shot back in a written statement to The Republic. “Gina Swoboda will be the Republican nominee in AZ01.”

The endorsement will also set back two other high-profile GOP candidates in the race, the ultra-conservative state Rep. Joseph Chaplik and businessman John Trobough, who both told The Republic they, too, had been in touch with the White House.

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Though Trump’s endorsement will be a boon in the Republican primary, it could become a liability in the general election. The district, which includes wealthy pockets of Paradise Valley, Scottsdale, and north Phoenix, has a hot-and-cold relationship with the president.

National GOP leaders encouraged him to run in Scottsdale, Feely says

Feely initially launched his campaign in Arizona’s 5th Congressional District, which includes much of Chandler, Queen Creek and Gilbert, where he lives with his family. He billed himself as a home-grown candidate with a “heart to serve,” and a MAGA devotee who has a personal relationship with Trump.

His prospects in that district dimmed after the president endorsed one of his opponents, Mark Lamb, the well-known former sheriff of Pinal County. Early polling showed Lamb with a large advantage in the race.

But Trump took a liking to Feely, encouraging the former football player in a November social media post to “run in a different district, or for a different office.”

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Feely followed the president’s advice. He switched his campaign into the Scottsdale district on Dec. 19. Trump’s endorsement followed about two weeks later.

In an interview Feely said national Republican leaders in D.C., and “grassroots leadership” in the Valley, encouraged him to pivot to the Scottsdale seat. He said he spoke several times with House Speaker Mike Johnson on the matter.

“I wanted to do what was best for the team,” he told The Arizona Republic.

“If they wanted me to run in CD1, and they felt like I was the best candidate, and the one that could hold that seat, then I was willing to do that.”

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It’s rare but not unheard of for the president to endorse multiple candidates in a single race.

Last year Trump endorsed two congressional hopefuls in a West Valley-area Republican primary, including the eventual winner, U.S. Rep. Abe Hamadeh.

And in Missouri’s 2022 U.S. Senate race, Trump left election-watchers scratching their heads when he endorsed “Eric,” a first name shared by the race’s two front-runners. Both campaigns claimed the endorsement as their own.

For years the Scottsdale-area district has been considered one of the most competitive races in the country. Its incumbent, U.S. Rep. David Schweikert, announced last year he would not seek re-election in 2026, winding down his 15-year tenure on Capitol Hill and setting up a bitter contest for the rare open congressional seat.

Across the aisle, about half a dozen high-profile Democrats are fighting for their party’s nomination.

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The candidates have already raised millions of dollars between them, with campaign spending only expected to escalate leading up to the Aug. 4, 2026 primaries. The Nov. 3, 2026, general election will bring millions more expensive television advertisements, mailers, and social media ads to the district, much of it financed by national Republican and Democratic groups wrestling for control over the U.S. House.

Feely has raised more than $1 million, about a third of which he has loaned himself, according to a report filed this fall. His personal financial disclosure shows he is worth at least $15 million, giving him a piggy bank that could help finance a campaign.

Swoboda has raised “quite a bit” of money, said campaign consultant Chris Baker, though her fundraising receipts aren’t yet public.

Rivals slam Feely’s out-of-district residence

Feely’s rivals have slammed him for running in a district where he doesn’t live.

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“If Jay Feely wants to travel 50 minutes every day to run in Arizona’s 1st Ccongressional District, where he’s never lived, we will pay for his Uber,” Alfredo Rodriguez, a strategist with the Trobough campaign, wrote in a news release. “Tell him to send us the bill.”

“If Gilbert carpetbagger Jay Feely foolishly thinks he can win in AZ01, then more power to him I guess. But the outcome won’t change – Gina Swoboda will win the Republican primary,” Baker wrote in a statement to The Republic.

Feely said in an interview he has connections to the Scottsdale district, even though he doesn’t actually live there. The district is “about economics” and “represents the entrepreneurial spirit,” he said.

“I’ve invested in companies in this district. My friends and family live in this district. And I want to be an asset to all of them,” Feely said.



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Arizona is still growing, but new migration data shows the trend may be shifting

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Arizona is still growing, but new migration data shows the trend may be shifting


Arizona remains one of the fastest-growing states in the country, but new migration data suggests that growth is starting to level out.

According to the latest numbers from U-Haul, Arizona ranked number seven nationwide for growth in 2025. While that is down one spot from the year before, it marks the sixth consecutive year the state has remained in the top ten.

The rankings are based on more than 2.5 million one-way moving transactions for the Arizona-based company.

What stands out in the data is how close those numbers are.

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In 2025, 50.3% of U-Haul’s one-way moves came into Arizona, while 49.7% moved out. In practical terms, that means for nearly every family moving into the state, there is another one packing up and leaving.

That does not mean Arizona is losing population. However, it does suggest the margin of growth is getting thinner than it has been in recent years.

Even with that shift, the greater Phoenix metro area continues to be a major driver of growth. Phoenix ranked fifth nationwide among U.S. metro areas, fueled by job creation and new housing across the Valley.

U-Haul leaders point to continued development tied to major employers, including chip manufacturing and data centers, as well as ongoing residential construction, as reasons Phoenix remains a top destination.

Experts who study migration trends say when in-migration and out-migration numbers get this close, it can be a sign that affordability pressures are starting to play a role, especially when it comes to housing.

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The latest data does not point to a mass exodus, but it does show Arizona entering a period of transition, balancing opportunity and growth with affordability concerns.





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Barrel Racers Claim Big Wins in First Weekend of Arizona Legacy Races

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Barrel Racers Claim Big Wins in First Weekend of Arizona Legacy Races


The 2026 Arizona Legacy Races in Buckeye, Ariz., are ringing in a new year for futurity horses December 30 – January 6, at the Buckeye Equestrian & Events Center. Formerly known as the MVP Futurity and Greg Olson Futurity, these two races have been a staple in many professional trainers’ schedules for decades. This year, the two events boast $22,000 in added money.

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Futurity

Linzie Lindsey and Fame Dancin Yola claimed the Round 1 win with a 17.577 for $1,959. Barbara Merrill rode TKW Eye Am Tess to the 2D win.

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After finishing out of the 1D money in Round 1, Loralee Ward and Dark Honey ran the fastest time of the futurity with a 17.030 to claim the Round 2 win. The duo also earned the Futurity Reserve Championship for $1,652.

Lindsey and Fame Dancin Yola finished second in Round 2 with a 17.164, adding $1,603 to their futurity earnings and claiming the Futurity Championship for another $2,019.

Jenna Duhon and PMC AintSheBeautiful earned the Round 2 2D win. In the 2D Average, it was Estella Martin and Quanahs Kingdom claiming the win.

Derby

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Round 1 of a very tough Derby went to Jana Bean and Feature This Goodbye with a 17.268. 2025 futurity standout Blissful Version and Lora Nichols finished second in Round 1 with a 17.282, won Round 2 with a 17.032, and claimed the Average win.

“Buddy” and Nichols were in contention for the highest money-earning futurity horse of the previous season, before the cancellation of the last two major events of the season due to EHV-1. By $7 million sire Winners Version, Buddy banked over $300,000 in his futurity year.

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Big Paydays

Megan McLeod-Sprague and Jagger | Fernando Sam-Sin/@fsamsin

Megan McLeod-Sprague and Seis Corona (“Jagger”) were hot off the 2025 National Finals Rodeo. The duo won the Roohide Hot Rod with a 17.004 for $1,368. They also earned the Friday Open 1D win for $1,083.

With the first 16-second run of the weekend, Sherry Cervi and MP Meter My Fame won the Saturday Open 1D with a 16.969.

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Rita Cheeney and HP Dash Ta Fairfax ran the only other sub-17-second run of the weekend, with a 16.996 that took the top spot in Sunday’s Open 1D.

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Nichols and Buddy doubled down on their derby earnings, placing deep in the Open 1D both days, as well as the Roohide Hot Rod, and Big Time Boss.

Youth competitor Tabitha Dyal also had an outstanding weekend, earning Open 1D money Friday, Saturday, and Sunday aboard Slym Shady. She swept the Youth 1D on Slym Shady and earned Open 1D, Open 2D, and Youth 1D checks on Promise Me Fame Guys and Smooth Operraider. Dyal wrapped up her weekend with several checks in the Big Time Boss.

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