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Arizona is still growing, but new migration data shows the trend may be shifting

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Arizona is still growing, but new migration data shows the trend may be shifting


Arizona remains one of the fastest-growing states in the country, but new migration data suggests that growth is starting to level out.

According to the latest numbers from U-Haul, Arizona ranked number seven nationwide for growth in 2025. While that is down one spot from the year before, it marks the sixth consecutive year the state has remained in the top ten.

The rankings are based on more than 2.5 million one-way moving transactions for the Arizona-based company.

What stands out in the data is how close those numbers are.

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In 2025, 50.3% of U-Haul’s one-way moves came into Arizona, while 49.7% moved out. In practical terms, that means for nearly every family moving into the state, there is another one packing up and leaving.

That does not mean Arizona is losing population. However, it does suggest the margin of growth is getting thinner than it has been in recent years.

Even with that shift, the greater Phoenix metro area continues to be a major driver of growth. Phoenix ranked fifth nationwide among U.S. metro areas, fueled by job creation and new housing across the Valley.

U-Haul leaders point to continued development tied to major employers, including chip manufacturing and data centers, as well as ongoing residential construction, as reasons Phoenix remains a top destination.

Experts who study migration trends say when in-migration and out-migration numbers get this close, it can be a sign that affordability pressures are starting to play a role, especially when it comes to housing.

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The latest data does not point to a mass exodus, but it does show Arizona entering a period of transition, balancing opportunity and growth with affordability concerns.





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Who should be the next Arizona Cardinals head coach? Vote in our poll

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Who should be the next Arizona Cardinals head coach? Vote in our poll


The Arizona Cardinals requested head coaching interviews with at least 14 candidates — more than nearly any other organization. But among those 14, the group of legitimate options is dwindling fast.

Two Cardinals’ candidates have already been hired elsewhere: Robert Saleh to the Titans and Jeff Hafley to the Dolphins. Three others have not yet been reported to conduct interviews with the Cardinals.

That leaves nine coaches who have both been interviewed by the Cardinals and who remain available.

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Then there are the coaches who interviewed with the Cardinals but have since progressed in other teams’ searches — but not with the Cardinals. That group includes Anthony Weaver, Matt Nagy, Jesse Minter and Raheem Morris (as a defensive coordinator). All indications are that those coaches are unlikely to be finalists in Arizona —barring shifting circumstances elsewhere.

As such, the Cardinals have five coaches who currently appear to be frontrunners for the job. Here are those five candidates:

  • Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph
  • Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak
  • Rams offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur
  • Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula
  • Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady

The first four names on that list all coach teams who are still alive in the playoffs, meaning that they cannot be brought back for an in-person interview until Jan. 26, after the conclusion of conference championship games.

Brady, meanwhile, only interviewed with the Cardinals on Jan. 20 — one day after the Bills fired head coach Sean McDermott in a surprise move. His candidacy has only just begun.

If those coaches are indeed the Cardinals’ preferred choices, it helps to explain why they have not yet conducted a second interview with any candidate.

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But for now, the story of this hiring cycle has been the Cardinals’ status as a team on the outside looking in.

They weren’t close on John Harbaugh, with whom they only conducted a preliminary phone call. They were never publicly connected to Kevin Stefanski. Likewise, with Mike McDaniel, who prefers a great offensive coordinator job to a subpar head coach opening. McDermott has not yet been requested by the Cardinals and is said not to be interested in a rebuild.

Then there’s Saleh, who was set for a second interview with the Cardinals on Jan. 20 — only to snub them to accept the Titans job instead. It was a move that summed up the first two weeks of the Cardinals’ offseason.



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Arizona Trending for Elite 2028 Tight End

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Arizona Trending for Elite 2028 Tight End


Now that the chaos of the 2026 college football transfer portal window is for the most part behind them, Arizona head coach Brent Brennan and his staff are shifting their focus towards the high school recruiting trail as they continue to target some of the top prospects in the country. 

While the Wildcats’ primary focus remains on the 2027 recruiting cycle, Arizona has also started making progress with some of the top prospects in the 2028 class, including a three-star tight end. 

Arizona Making Progress With Three-Star 2028 Tight End

Throughout his recruitment, Arizona has been targeting Torrin Hill, a three-star tight end from Centennial High School in Phoenix. The Wildcats first offered Hill in January 2025 and have been actively pursuing him ever since. 

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Nov 25, 2022; Tucson, Arizona, USA; Detailed view of an Arizona Wildcats helmet on the field during the Territorial Cup at Arizona Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Although Hill is only a sophomore at Centennial, he’s already established himself as one of the nation’s top tight end prospects. Rivals’ industry rankings list him as the No. 169 overall player in the 2028 class, the No. 7 tight end, and the No. 4 prospect from Arizona. 

Hill holds five offers, and while other Division I programs, including Syracuse and Memphis, are pursuing him, Rivals’ Adam Goreny recently reported that Arizona is off to a strong start in his recruitment. 

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Sept 13, 2024; Peoria, Ariz.; USA; Centennial wide receiver Torrin Hill (14) breaks a tackle against Brophy Prep on his way to a first down during a game at Centennial High School. | Patrick Breen/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

According to Gorney, Hill took note of the Wildcats’ impressive 9-4 2025 season and is very interested in his hometown school. 

  • “Arizona is recruiting the 2028 three-star tight end from Peoria (Ariz.) Centennial and he’s definitely taken notice of the Wildcats’ success this season so that could be big as Hill’s recruitment continues,” Gorney wrote. 

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Nov 22, 2025; Tucson, Arizona, USA; Arizona Wildcats head coach Brent Brennan against the Baylor Bears at Casino Del Sol Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Having already established a strong relationship with Hill should put the Wildcats in a position to remain in contention for the three-star tight end throughout his recruitment as more programs get involved.

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Not only is Hill one of the top tight end prospects in the 2028 class, but he’s also from Arizona. If Brennan and company could land him, he’d be a massive addition to their class, as bringing in elite in-state talent is crucial to any program’s success. 

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Oct 4, 2025; Tucson, Arizona, USA; The helmet of an Arizona Wildcats player is seen in the end zone before the ga,e against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Arizona Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Aryanna Frank-Imagn Images | Aryanna Frank-Imagn Images

Arizona hosted Hill for a game-day visit in October, and the Wildcats should look to bring him to campus in Tucson this offseason to strengthen their standing with the young tight end. 

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While there’s still a long way to go before Hill makes a decision, Gorney’s report suggests the Wildcats have built an early lead in his recruitment and that Arizona is firmly in contention to land one of the top recruits in the 2028 cycle.

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Tell us your thoughts on Arizona’s recruitment of Hill by commenting on our Facebook page. Also, be sure to follow @NateMartTSports on X for updates on all things Arizona Wildcats.



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Former Arizona running back signee with elite speed flips commitment to Oregon

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Former Arizona running back signee with elite speed flips commitment to Oregon


Oregon football is adding to its running back depth with a newcomer to its 2026 high school recruiting class.

Four-star running back Brandon Smith announced his commitment to the Ducks on Monday. Smith previously signed with Arizona in December before reopening his recruitment this past weekend, and now he is set to land in Eugene under running backs coach Ra’Shaad Samples.

Smith — from Central East High School in Fresno — is rated the No. 21 running back in the country and No. 29 overall player in California according to 247Sports’ composite rankings. He also competed in track and field during high school and played safety as well on the football field.

Smith brings plenty of speed to the table, according to 247Sports national recruiting analyst Greg Biggins.

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“A true game breaker and home run threat running the football and is among the most explosive backs out West,” Biggins wrote back on June 27. “Elite track metrics and competed in five events last Spring with a personal best 10.67-100-meters, 21.52-200m and anchored the schools 4X400 relay team that finished 2nd at the CA State Track and Field Championship. Speed shows up on the football field and he’s able to accelerate and hit his top end gear after just a few strides.”

With early enrollee quarterback Bryson Beaver now headed to Georgia, Oregon’s 2026 high school recruiting class stands at 21 players with the addition of Smith, now rated the No. 2 overall class in 247Sports’ composite rankings. The Ducks’ other 2026 running back is four-star prospect Tradarian Ball (Texarkana, TX), rated the No. 9 running back in the country and No. 14 player in Texas.



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