Ohio State stays in the field after losing to Michigan and Arizona State steps up to win the Big 12 and earns an opening-round bye in the final USA TODAY Sports College Football Playoff bracketology of the regular season.

The nine Bowl Subdivision conference championship games set to be played on Friday and Saturday will settle the debate once and for all before the playoff selection committee unveils the final rankings early on Sunday afternoon.

The Buckeyes’ fourth loss in a row to the Wolverines sends them from a potential top-four seed to a rematch with Indiana in the opening round. Ohio State is projected to be one of four host teams in this first round, joining Notre Dame, Georgia and Penn State.

SMU winning the ACC would be great news for Alabama, which is poised to be the last team in the field should the Mustangs beat Clemson. That would send the Crimson Tide into a must-see matchup in South Bend against the Fighting Irish.

And in the Big 12, Arizona State is projected to beat Iowa State and rise above Boise State in the final rankings. The Sun Devils would then finish among the top four conference champions and have a bye into the quarterfinals.

WINNERS AND LOSERS: Ohio State, Alabama boosted by CFP committee

BOWL PROJECTIONS: Alabama joins playoff, while Texas, SMU move up

College Football Playoff bracket projection

The Big Ten and the SEC lead the way with four teams in the bracket: Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana from the former and Texas, Georgia, Tennessee and Alabama from the latter.

A ninth spot goes to Notre Dame, which has won 10 in a row and is playing by far the best football of the program’s Marcus Freeman era. Rounding out the field are SMU, Boise State from and Arizona State.

As noted, a Clemson win against SMU would very likely knock out Alabama. While Arizona State is projected to pass Boise State with a win, the same can’t necessarily be said of Iowa State should it top the Sun Devils.

Four teams to watch

Army

The Black Knights’ odds of reaching the playoff low given the ranked matchup between Boise State and UNLV to settle the Mountain West. Army could’ve moved into the lead in the Group of Five by upsetting Notre Dame two weeks ago. Another avenue closed when Tulane lost to Memphis, robbing the Black Knights of a potential ranked win.

South Carolina

In the end, the Gamecocks will be unable to overcome losses to the Alabama and Mississippi. Those head-to-head results overshadowed a torrid run through the second half of the regular season that included three wins against ranked competition.

Miami

Miami’s chances of reaching the playoff come in somewhere between slim and none after losing to Syracuse to fall out of the ACC title game. That erased one question that loomed over the conference: Could the Hurricanes get into the playoff at 11-2 with a loss to SMU? Obviously, any chance the ACC had of sending two teams into the bracket were evaporated by Miami’s second loss.

Indiana

The Hoosiers benefited from some anarchy in the SEC to stay a rock-solid playoff pick even after November’s one-sided loss to Ohio State. But Indiana also earned this chance by dominating nearly every team on this year’s schedule, closing things out with a 66-0 rout of rival Purdue.

Rarely are head coaches fired after one season. The Wildcats were wise not to join the super-short list.

Originally Published: December 3, 2024 at 11:39 AM PST

The 2024 season is officially in the books for Arizona, and it was a bad one. At 4-8 overall and 2-7 in the inaugural year in the Big 12, the Wildcats saw their win total plummet by six games from the 10-3 mark of 2023, matching the largest season-over-season decrease in school history.

Looking at the UA’s Pro Football Focus grades, it’s easy to see why, as Arizona dipped in almost every category.

The Wildcats’ season grade of 75.6 ranked 104^th out of 134 FBS schools, down from the 90.8 in 2023 that was tied for 16th-best. A year after having the 8th-best offense in the country, Arizona ranked 83^rd, and on defense it went from 54^th to 123^rd.

Only the UA’s special teams grade improved, thanks mostly to kicker Tyler Loop and his NFL leg. The Wildcats ranked 48^th after being 62^nd last season.

The UA’s best-graded game this fall was the first one, the 61-39 victory over New Mexico in Brent Brennan’s debut, which earned an 88.7. The worst: 50.6 for the 56-12 loss at UCF, the program’s lowest-graded game since 2021.

While there were many factors that contributed to the rough 2024 season, one that played a big role was injuries and other circumstances that kept players out of action. Only 12 offensive and defensive starters from the opener logged at least half the snaps for the season, with the starting 11 on defense playing only 49.4 percent of snaps.

Defensive captains Jacob Manu, Gunner Maldonado and Treydan Stukes, each of whom suffered season-ending injuries, combined for only 743 snaps in 2024 compared to 2,129 last year.

Below is a breakdown of how Arizona’s players graded individually.

Offense

Most snaps: LT Jonah Savaiinaea (738 of 744), QB Noah Fifita (729), LG Wendell Moe Jr. (702), C Josh Baker (677), WR Tetairoa McMillan (669)

Highest overall grades (at least 100 snaps): McMillan (84.7 on 669 snaps), Fifita (75.9 on 729), Savaiinaea (74.2 on 738), RB Quali Conley (74.0 on 505), TE Keyan Burnett (73.9 on 287)

Best passing grades: McMillan (85.4 on 455 passing snaps), Fifita (73.4 on 479), Burnett (71.4 on 186), WR Chris Hunter (67,4 on 244), Conley (63.1 on 223)

Best pass-blocking grades: OL Leif Magnuson (90.1 on 51 pass-blocking snaps), Moe (86.0 on 453), Baker (84.2 on 449), Savaiinaea (83.4 on 478), OL Alexander Doost (76.0 on 370)

Best running grades: Conley (77.0 on 145 run snaps), RB Kedrick Reescano (74.1 on 68)

Best run-blocking grades: FB Kayden Luke (77.0 on 28 run-blocking snaps), Burnett (74.3 on 86), TE Tyler Powell (67.2 on 43), TE Roberto Miranda (65.2 on 102), Hunter (63.9 on 105)

Defense

Most snaps: DB Genesis Smith (749 of 804), LB Taye Brown (704), CB Tacario Davis (684), S Dalton Johnson (681), DB Owen Goss (583)

Highest overall grades (at least 100 snaps): G Smith (71.9 on 749 snaps), CB Treydan Stukes (70.7 on 195), DE Tre Smith (70.2 on 566), Goss (66.8 on 583), S Gunner Maldonado (64.1 on 190)

Best tackling grades: CB Demetrius Freeney (81.0 on 69 snaps), Davis (77.0 on 684), DT Chubba Ma’ae (76.5 on 139), DE Lance Keneley (74.0 on 217), D Johnson (70.4 on 681)

Best run defense grades: Stukes (73.5 on 77 run defense snaps), G Smith (72.1 on 349), DE Sterling Lane II (69.9 on 89), DT Kevon Darton (69.7 on 80), Maldonado (68.7 on 76)

Best pass rushing grades: Brown (71.8 on 68 pass rushing snaps), T Smith (70.9 on 306), DL Ta’ita’i Uiagalelei (67.4 on 292), DE Chase Kennedy (66.2 on 168), Keneley (63.6 on 94)

Best coverage grades: Kennedy (76.3 on 33 coverage snaps), G Smith (71.7 on 394), Stukes (69.7 on 117), LB Kamuela Ka’aihue (69.3 on 50), Goss (65.8 on 276)

Special teams

Most snaps: Ka’aihue (177), Jack Luttrell (154), Gavin Hunter (141), Brown (140), Tyler Mustain (137)

Best overall grades: G Smith (76.2 on 133 snaps), Mustain (75.8 on 137), Goss (75.1 on 94), Rex Haynes (74.1 on 71), K Luke (71.5 on 72)