Arizona
Kentucky vs. North Carolina, Purdue vs. Arizona picks: College basketball odds
A pair of ranked matchups at neutral-site venues Saturday have caught my attention.
Let’s start with the blue-blood showdown in the ATL.
No. 14 Kentucky vs. No. 9 North Carolina (in Atlanta)
The “Kiddy Cats” remain difficult to pin down this season.
Rob Dillingham, Justin Edwards, Reed Sheppard and D.J. Wagner are all playing significant minutes as true freshmen, combining to score 55% of Kentucky’s points this season, so it’s understandable they’re going to play high-variance basketball with so many inexperienced starters.
When it’s clicking for coach John Calipari and company, the sky appears to be the limit.
The Wildcats went 15 rounds with Kansas before wilting late.
They hammered No. 8 Miami during a flawless performance three weeks ago.
But then they came crashing back to earth, dropping a home game to UNC Wilmington as 19-point favorites.
What that tells me is that motivation and leadership can be lacking when UK is punching down.
But when it comes to getting up for a big game, one that Big Blue Nation is sure to travel for, I have confidence that Kentucky’s youth won’t be its undoing.
On the North Carolina side of things, the Tar Heels appear poised to go as far as RJ Davis and Armando Bacot can carry them.
Davis is pouring in 21 points per game and Bacot is as healthy and productive as ever.
The UNC big is averaging a double-double (15.9 ppg, 11.9 rpg) with two blocks per game.
But outside of this dynamic duo, the emergence of Stanford transfer Harrison Ingram has been the real story on Tobacco Road.
Ingram has three 20-point performances in his last five games and presents a mismatch for Justin Edwards at the four.
I expect this game to be defined by transition buckets and fearless backcourt play.
Recommendation: Over 167 (play to 168.5)
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 3 Purdue (in Indianapolis)
I’ve written extensively about Purdue’s offseason decision to embrace a quicker tempo.
After years of glacially paced halfcourt battles, the Boilermakers are playing noticeably faster this season.
As a result, their offensive numbers are off the charts.
They rank first in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to Bart Torvik, pumping in 85.6 ppg.
That’s a 13-point increase over their scoring average last season.
Zach Edey leads the nation in nearly every efficiency metric and has been sensational against ranked opponents (25 ppg, 13 rpg, 58% shooting).
But now Purdue must face a Wildcats team that hasn’t simply switched to a faster tempo, it was engineered for it.
The day Arizona hired longtime Gonzaga assistant coach Tommy Lloyd, the Wildcats entered a new offensive era.
They run and they gun and they score points at a nation-best 94 ppg.
Betting on College Basketball?
In Lloyd’s first season in the desert, his team finished seventh in adjusted efficiency on the offensive end and ninth in adjusted tempo, according to KenPom.
In Year 2, the ’Cats maintained a top-15 rating in both metrics and this season they check in sixth nationally in both.
Suffice it to say, they won’t be thrown off by Purdue’s tactics and have the upper hand playing an up-and-down game.
And while I’m encouraged by the improved play of Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith in Matt Painter’s backcourt, I’d still rather have Kylan Boswell and Caleb Love.
Boswell has a 4.25:1 assist-to-turnover ratio against ranked opponents, and Love continues to impress as a stat-sheet stuffer.
Love is on pace for career highs in shooting percentage, assists, rebounds and steals.
In the end, I think the Arizona backcourt will win the day in Indianapolis.
Recommendation: Arizona +3 and Over 162.5
Arizona
Tommy Lloyd Says Arizona Basketball Has to ‘Play Smarter’ After Tough Loss
Arizona made some headlines when it was revealed the struggling football program would be playing the first half of the basketball team’s game on the stadium’s video board in an attempt to motivate fans to show up for their matchup against Houston.
That strategy worked for the football team since they completely dominated the Cougars to snap their five-game losing streak and keep their bowl chances alive.
However, the basketball team wasn’t so lucky.
They suffered their first loss of the season, 103-88, on the road against Wisconsin.
The Wildcats never led at any point during the game, and despite making a run in the second half to tie things up following their 11-point halftime deficit, they weren’t able to sustain that level of play while the Badgers continued to score.
Defense has been an issue for Arizona on the hardcourt in the past, and that was on full display during this contest.
They allowed Wisconsin to shoot 48.1% from the floor and 44.4% from three (12-27), while also putting them on the foul line a staggering 47 times where the Badgers made 41 of those shots.
It was a recipe for allowing 100 points, and the Wildcats departed to Tucson trying to figure out how they can avoid that type of performance going forward.
For head coach Tommy Lloyd, his message was simple.
“We have to play smarter and we have to play better. I kind of warned our guys that they were adept at drawing fouls certain ways and we just didn’t play smart enough,” he said per Jason Scheer of 247Sports.
Fouls were the story of the game, with Arizona committing 32 of them, but it’s hard to argue the whistle was going against them when Wisconsin was also called for 31 fouls and allowed the Wildcats to shoot 40 free throws.
“You have to adjust to how the game is being called. We’ve probably had officials now 10 times and that was definitely the tightest we’ve felt it called. We’re getting officials from different parts of the country, I don’t know, but it was definitely the tightest. We have to adjust,” Lloyd added.
It’s still early in the campaign, so this road loss in a tough place to play isn’t going to ruin their season, but it was a bit concerning to see this type of performance, no matter if it was their third game of the year or not.
Arizona
BYU’s shocking loss puts Arizona State in position to win Big 12
A pretty good Saturday just got a lot better for the Arizona State football team.
A little over three hours after finishing off No. 16 Kansas State 24-14, the Sun Devils watched No. 6 BYU fall to Kansas 17-13.
The loss dropped BYU to 6-1 in the Big 12, just one game ahead of Arizona State (5-2) with two games to play.
And the Cougars travel to Tempe, Arizona, next Saturday to play the Sun Devils.
Updated Big 12 Standings
It’s basically a four-team race between BYU, Colorado, Arizona State and Iowa State for the two berths in the Big 12 football championship game. After another Saturday of wild upsets, here’s a look at the top of the standings:
Every game is an elimination game for Arizona State, which is how they have been operating for weeks. But now the Sun Devils don’t need help. If they win their final two games they will, at worst, finish in a tie for second place in the Big 12. Then the crazy tiebreaker scenarios begin.
Big 12 Tiebreaker Scenarios
If the Sun Devils can beat BYU next week — and Colorado and Iowa State win — it would create a three-way tie for second place behind Colorado. And if all four teams win their finales, and the season ends in a three-way tie for second … well, good luck with the tiebreaker rules:
In the event of a tie between more than two teams, the following procedures will be used. After one team has an advantage and is “seeded”, all remaining teams in the multiple-team tiebreaker will repeat the tie-breaking procedure. If at any point the multiple-team tie is reduced to two teams, the two-team tie-breaking procedure will be applied.
a. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage in games among the tied teams:
Arizona State, Iowa State and BYU will not all play each other this season, so we move on to the next step in the tiebreaker:
In this scenario, Arizona State would win the tiebreaker. The Sun Devils would finish 4-0 against common Big 12 opponents, while both BYU and Iowa State would finish 3-1. That would land the Sun Devils in the Big 12 championship game against Colorado — with the winner claiming the Big 12 title and an automatic berth in the College Football Playoff.
With two weeks to go, Arizona State suddenly controls its own destiny.
More Arizona State & Big 12 Analysis
Arizona
College Basketball: Arizona State Young Freshmen Got Next
Arizona State had a tough win against a solid team in Grand Canyon earlier this week. This Sun Devils squad is filled with many veteran players but also has three young freshmen who have a very promising future in college basketball.
Let’s dive into their dynamic trio of freshmen.
The youngest player in all of college basketball is a 6-foot-9 big man, Jayden Quaintance. The Arizona State big man is oozing with potential. Coach Bobby Hurley has gone on record saying that Quaintance is the best defensive freshman he has ever coached and that statement is certainly believable.
He currently averages 3.5 blocks per game and has the footwork, agility and quickness to defend out in space effectively. Although there are moments when he can be out of position or a bit jumpy, he has the potential to be a special rim protector. His hands are bigger than Shaquille O’Neal’s and his wingspan is around 7-foot-5.
On the offensive end, he has real talent even though he’s still figuring out game on that side of the court. The two-way potential Quaintance possesses is special and there is no other big in college basketball who has the ceiling he possesses.
In Arizona State’s game against Grand Canyon, freshman guard Joson Sanon dropped 21 points and showed quite a bit of promise for the Sun Devils. The 6-foot-5 guard has proven to be an elite shooter, especially for a freshman. Although it’s a small sample size, he is shooting 52.6% percent from behind the arc on a little over four attempts per game.
His shooting ability is special as he is lethal off the catch, can make tough pull-up jumpers, and even has some movement shooting ability. The versatile shooting and touch are lethal, which is what makes Sanon really intriguing. As he gets older and stronger it would be nice to see him get more rim attempts.
He has been given a certain role on the team, so maybe if he returns for his sophomore season he can explore more off the dribble actions. Arizona State’s coaching staff hopes to see him return for his sophomore year but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he was to end up as a one-and-done.
A 6-foot-8 wing, Amier Ali is another freshman for this Sun Devils squad that looks to have a bright future with the program. The main intrigue with Ali is his shooting ability paired with his positional size. On the season, he’s currently shooting a ridiculous 63.6% from behind the arc on good volume while only playing 12 minutes per contest.
Although he’s only getting limited minutes, we should expect a much bigger role out of him next season. In high school, he showcased real secondary playmaking ability and vision that he hasn’t been able to really show in college quite yet, but that is to come.
As he is given more on-ball responsibilities as he gets older, we could see him rise up on draft boards as his archetype is quite rare. Someone at 6-foot-8 who can be an elite shooter while also being a secondary playmaker is something NBA teams covet.
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