Arizona
It costs Arizona $332M to pay for vouchers subsidizing private school tuition, homeschooling
A new report from the Grand Canyon Institute, a nonpartisan think tank, shows that the estimated net cost of the universal portion of Arizona’s school voucher program is $332 million in the current fiscal year — a figure that will grow to around $429 million next year.
The Grand Canyon Institute found that the net cost of the recently-expanded universal part of the ESA program is equal to about one-half of the state’s budget deficit in the 2024 fiscal year and about two-thirds of the projected deficit in 2025.
The state is facing an estimated $1.3 billion budget deficit in both those years combined, with pressure on Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs and Republican leaders in the state legislature to work together to balance them before June 30, when the 2024 fiscal year ends.
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The current fiscal year’s budget was crafted assuming that 68,380 students would take advantage of the program, at a cost to the state of $625 million. In January, the Arizona Department of Education boosted its estimates to 74,000 students and a $723.5 million price tag.
But even more students than that are already participating: Through May, more than 75,200 students were enrolled, with a median cost of $7,000 to $8,000 per student.
The Education Department estimates that enrollment will increase even more by the end of the next fiscal year, to around 99,000 total participants, according to a May 31 letter from the agency to the Joint Legislative Budget Committee.
“Failure to rein in these costs means critical areas of state government expenditures will be cut to balance the budget,” GCI said in a statement about the report.
Public school proponents have staged press conferences at the Capitol in Phoenix two weeks in a row now, calling for the cessation of the costly universal portion of the voucher program or at least a cap on it, but it’s unthinkable that the Republican-led legislature will agree to do so.
Public school advocates say the program takes money away from the district schools that educate 90% of Arizona’s K-12 students and that universal vouchers are essentially a subsidy for wealthy parents who were already sending their children to private schools before vouchers were available to them.
The Empowerment Scholarship Account program, as it’s formally known, works by giving the parents of participating students a debit card that can be used to pay for various educational costs, including private school tuition and homeschooling supplies. The money can even be saved for college. Parents can also be reimbursed for educational purchases through the Class Wallet system.
The voucher scheme was created in 2012 to allow special education students to attend private or parochial schools using state funding. After the Arizona Supreme Court determined that the program did not violate Arizona’s constitutional ban on directing tax dollars to religious entities, the ESA system was later expanded to include other groups like foster kids and those attending failing public schools.
In 2022, legislative Republicans voted to expand access to allow any K-12 student in the state to attend private school or to be homeschooled using public money, even if that student’s parents were already paying for them to attend private school before a voucher was available.
The Grand Canyon Institute found that the gross cost of the ESA program in 2024 — including universal students and those who qualified under the previous program — was around $700 million, with the universal portion making up about $385 million.
The cost of the universal expansion was calculated by first determining how many of the universal voucher recipients wouldn’t have been eligible before the expansion. The researchers found that 54,028 students enrolled in the program in December 2023 were newly eligible, while another 17,492 receiving universal vouchers would have qualified anyway.
The net cost of only the universal students was then determined by using state education data to figure out approximately how many of those students never attended a public school and how many moved from a charter school to a private voucher.
“GCI estimates that 82% of universal ESA recipients never attended a district or charter school,” the report concluded.
ESA vouchers were initially designed to transfer 90% of the cost of educating a student in a traditional public school to the voucher, thus saving the state money. But several years ago, GOP lawmakers changed that formula and now base the vouchers on 90% of what the state pays to charter schools for each student.
Because charter schools aren’t able to tax local property, their per-student payment from the state is substantially higher than for district schools, meaning the cost of school vouchers are markedly higher per student now than when they were first created. The change eliminated the savings of vouchers for nearly all students who use them.
So, the net cost to the state for each voucher student depends on whether the state previously paid for that student’s education and to what extent. Students who never attended public or charter schools are a new cost to the state, while a student who moves from a charter school to a voucher saves the state a modest amount since per-student payments for vouchers are about 90% of what the state pays for a charter student.
The impact on state coffers when a student switches from public school to a private voucher depends on which school that student attended. Schools in areas with high property values, like Scottsdale Unified, don’t receive state aid and are funded primarily by local property taxes. That means that each of the estimated 283 universal ESA students who previously attended Scottsdale Unified schools but entered the voucher program in fiscal year 2024 are a new cost to the state, to the tune of around $2 million, according to GCI.
The Grand Canyon Institute also took transportation costs into account when determining the net cost, since public schools usually provide transportation to students, while voucher students generally have to provide their own transportation.
With all of those factors taken into account, the institute found that the gross cost to Arizona’s general fund for universal voucher students was $385 million, while the net cost was lower, at $332 million.
The report shows that while Republicans who back the program, including Arizona’s Superintendent of Public Instruction Tom Horne, say it saves the state money, that isn’t actually the case.
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President Donald Trump endorsed not one but two Republicans in a highly watched Arizona congressional primary, boosting a new candidate after his first pick met resistance from some in the GOP.
In a Jan. 6 social media post, Trump said he was backing Jay Feely, a former Cardinals kicker and sports commentator who recently switched his campaign into Arizona’s Scottsdale-area 1st Congressional District, in addition to Gina Swoboda, the state GOP chair whose candidacy has divided Republicans despite her securing Trump’s support in October.
The president praised both Feely and Swoboda as “Highly Respected America First Patriots.”
“JAY OR GINA WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!” he wrote on Truth Social, the social media platform he owns.
The announcement is a blow to Swoboda, a polarizing figure among Arizona Republicans. Her longtime rivalry with Turning Point, the network of conservative advocacy groups founded by the late activist Charlie Kirk, has shadowed her candidacy, prompting attacks and infighting among Arizona Republicans.
The president’s team had not publicly confirmed his endorsement of Swoboda before the Jan. 6 social media post.
In an interview with The Arizona Republic, Feely said he thought the endorsement came back to his “friendship” and shared values with the president.
“I love what he’s doing. I believe in what he’s doing. I’m committed to the same principles that he and his administration have,” Feely said.
“We wish Gilbert resident Jay Feely well in his latest campaign for Congress, but nothing has changed,” Swoboda campaign consultant Chris Baker shot back in a written statement to The Republic. “Gina Swoboda will be the Republican nominee in AZ01.”
The endorsement will also set back two other high-profile GOP candidates in the race, the ultra-conservative state Rep. Joseph Chaplik and businessman John Trobough, who both told The Republic they, too, had been in touch with the White House.
Though Trump’s endorsement will be a boon in the Republican primary, it could become a liability in the general election. The district, which includes wealthy pockets of Paradise Valley, Scottsdale, and north Phoenix, has a hot-and-cold relationship with the president.
National GOP leaders encouraged him to run in Scottsdale, Feely says
Feely initially launched his campaign in Arizona’s 5th Congressional District, which includes much of Chandler, Queen Creek and Gilbert, where he lives with his family. He billed himself as a home-grown candidate with a “heart to serve,” and a MAGA devotee who has a personal relationship with Trump.
His prospects in that district dimmed after the president endorsed one of his opponents, Mark Lamb, the well-known former sheriff of Pinal County. Early polling showed Lamb with a large advantage in the race.
But Trump took a liking to Feely, encouraging the former football player in a November social media post to “run in a different district, or for a different office.”
Feely followed the president’s advice. He switched his campaign into the Scottsdale district on Dec. 19. Trump’s endorsement followed about two weeks later.
In an interview Feely said national Republican leaders in D.C., and “grassroots leadership” in the Valley, encouraged him to pivot to the Scottsdale seat. He said he spoke several times with House Speaker Mike Johnson on the matter.
“I wanted to do what was best for the team,” he told The Arizona Republic.
“If they wanted me to run in CD1, and they felt like I was the best candidate, and the one that could hold that seat, then I was willing to do that.”
It’s rare but not unheard of for the president to endorse multiple candidates in a single race.
Last year Trump endorsed two congressional hopefuls in a West Valley-area Republican primary, including the eventual winner, U.S. Rep. Abe Hamadeh.
And in Missouri’s 2022 U.S. Senate race, Trump left election-watchers scratching their heads when he endorsed “Eric,” a first name shared by the race’s two front-runners. Both campaigns claimed the endorsement as their own.
For years the Scottsdale-area district has been considered one of the most competitive races in the country. Its incumbent, U.S. Rep. David Schweikert, announced last year he would not seek re-election in 2026, winding down his 15-year tenure on Capitol Hill and setting up a bitter contest for the rare open congressional seat.
Across the aisle, about half a dozen high-profile Democrats are fighting for their party’s nomination.
The candidates have already raised millions of dollars between them, with campaign spending only expected to escalate leading up to the Aug. 4, 2026 primaries. The Nov. 3, 2026, general election will bring millions more expensive television advertisements, mailers, and social media ads to the district, much of it financed by national Republican and Democratic groups wrestling for control over the U.S. House.
Feely has raised more than $1 million, about a third of which he has loaned himself, according to a report filed this fall. His personal financial disclosure shows he is worth at least $15 million, giving him a piggy bank that could help finance a campaign.
Swoboda has raised “quite a bit” of money, said campaign consultant Chris Baker, though her fundraising receipts aren’t yet public.
Rivals slam Feely’s out-of-district residence
Feely’s rivals have slammed him for running in a district where he doesn’t live.
“If Jay Feely wants to travel 50 minutes every day to run in Arizona’s 1st Ccongressional District, where he’s never lived, we will pay for his Uber,” Alfredo Rodriguez, a strategist with the Trobough campaign, wrote in a news release. “Tell him to send us the bill.”
“If Gilbert carpetbagger Jay Feely foolishly thinks he can win in AZ01, then more power to him I guess. But the outcome won’t change – Gina Swoboda will win the Republican primary,” Baker wrote in a statement to The Republic.
Feely said in an interview he has connections to the Scottsdale district, even though he doesn’t actually live there. The district is “about economics” and “represents the entrepreneurial spirit,” he said.
“I’ve invested in companies in this district. My friends and family live in this district. And I want to be an asset to all of them,” Feely said.
Arizona remains one of the fastest-growing states in the country, but new migration data suggests that growth is starting to level out.
According to the latest numbers from U-Haul, Arizona ranked number seven nationwide for growth in 2025. While that is down one spot from the year before, it marks the sixth consecutive year the state has remained in the top ten.
The rankings are based on more than 2.5 million one-way moving transactions for the Arizona-based company.
What stands out in the data is how close those numbers are.
In 2025, 50.3% of U-Haul’s one-way moves came into Arizona, while 49.7% moved out. In practical terms, that means for nearly every family moving into the state, there is another one packing up and leaving.
That does not mean Arizona is losing population. However, it does suggest the margin of growth is getting thinner than it has been in recent years.
Even with that shift, the greater Phoenix metro area continues to be a major driver of growth. Phoenix ranked fifth nationwide among U.S. metro areas, fueled by job creation and new housing across the Valley.
U-Haul leaders point to continued development tied to major employers, including chip manufacturing and data centers, as well as ongoing residential construction, as reasons Phoenix remains a top destination.
Experts who study migration trends say when in-migration and out-migration numbers get this close, it can be a sign that affordability pressures are starting to play a role, especially when it comes to housing.
The latest data does not point to a mass exodus, but it does show Arizona entering a period of transition, balancing opportunity and growth with affordability concerns.
The 2026 Arizona Legacy Races in Buckeye, Ariz., are ringing in a new year for futurity horses December 30 – January 6, at the Buckeye Equestrian & Events Center. Formerly known as the MVP Futurity and Greg Olson Futurity, these two races have been a staple in many professional trainers’ schedules for decades. This year, the two events boast $22,000 in added money.
Futurity
Linzie Lindsey and Fame Dancin Yola claimed the Round 1 win with a 17.577 for $1,959. Barbara Merrill rode TKW Eye Am Tess to the 2D win.
After finishing out of the 1D money in Round 1, Loralee Ward and Dark Honey ran the fastest time of the futurity with a 17.030 to claim the Round 2 win. The duo also earned the Futurity Reserve Championship for $1,652.
Lindsey and Fame Dancin Yola finished second in Round 2 with a 17.164, adding $1,603 to their futurity earnings and claiming the Futurity Championship for another $2,019.
Jenna Duhon and PMC AintSheBeautiful earned the Round 2 2D win. In the 2D Average, it was Estella Martin and Quanahs Kingdom claiming the win.
Derby
Round 1 of a very tough Derby went to Jana Bean and Feature This Goodbye with a 17.268. 2025 futurity standout Blissful Version and Lora Nichols finished second in Round 1 with a 17.282, won Round 2 with a 17.032, and claimed the Average win.
“Buddy” and Nichols were in contention for the highest money-earning futurity horse of the previous season, before the cancellation of the last two major events of the season due to EHV-1. By $7 million sire Winners Version, Buddy banked over $300,000 in his futurity year.
Big Paydays
Megan McLeod-Sprague and Seis Corona (“Jagger”) were hot off the 2025 National Finals Rodeo. The duo won the Roohide Hot Rod with a 17.004 for $1,368. They also earned the Friday Open 1D win for $1,083.
With the first 16-second run of the weekend, Sherry Cervi and MP Meter My Fame won the Saturday Open 1D with a 16.969.
Rita Cheeney and HP Dash Ta Fairfax ran the only other sub-17-second run of the weekend, with a 16.996 that took the top spot in Sunday’s Open 1D.
Nichols and Buddy doubled down on their derby earnings, placing deep in the Open 1D both days, as well as the Roohide Hot Rod, and Big Time Boss.
Youth competitor Tabitha Dyal also had an outstanding weekend, earning Open 1D money Friday, Saturday, and Sunday aboard Slym Shady. She swept the Youth 1D on Slym Shady and earned Open 1D, Open 2D, and Youth 1D checks on Promise Me Fame Guys and Smooth Operraider. Dyal wrapped up her weekend with several checks in the Big Time Boss.
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