Alaska
Alaska’s primary election turnout is on pace to be third-lowest in 50 years
Turnout in this year’s state primary election is on pace to be the third lowest in the past 50 years, according to preliminary figures published Tuesday by the Alaska Division of Elections.
Though final certified results aren’t expected until at least Sunday, most ballots have been received and counted.
Through Tuesday evening, 106,208 votes had been counted from just over 17.5% of all registered voters.
This chart, using figures from the Alaska Division of Elections, shows the voter turnout percentage with the line and the number of ballots cast with the bars in each primary election since 1974. The 2024 figure is preliminary. (James Brooks/Alaska Beacon)
Four years ago, Alaskans approved a new elections system that includes an open primary election in which candidates from all parties compete in the same race for each statewide office. The top four vote-getters advance to the general election.
Opponents of the change have succeeded in placing a repeal measure on the November ballot, and some have claimed that the new system is to blame for this year’s low turnout.
A look at the past 50 years’ worth of primary elections points to another potential culprit: a boring ballot.
This year’s primary election is the first since 2000 to have no ballot measures, no governor’s race and no race for U.S. Senate.
In 2000, barely 15% of voters participated in the primary, causing the Anchorage Daily News editorial page to proclaim that turnout was “mighty poor.”
Voters “saw little reason to hit the polls,” the paper reported.
In 2016, Sen. Lisa Murkowski was on the primary ballot, but with no ballot measures and no governor’s race, the result was the second-lowest primary turnout on record.
The state’s burgeoning voter rolls are also a factor in low turnout.
Turnout is the result of simple division — the number of participating voters divided by the number of registered voters.
While the state’s population has plateaued in recent years, the number of registered voters here has risen steadily.
Earlier this year, the Census Bureau estimated that Alaska has 557,899 residents who are at least 18 years old. As of the primary election, the state had 605,482 registered voters, or more than 108% of its voting-age population.
Subtract people who are ineligible to vote — noncitizens and convicted felons in prison, for example — and the state likely has a voter registration rate of more than 110%.
That’s because it’s much easier to register a voter than deregister one.
Alaska has the most transient population in the country, based on the number of people moving into and out of the state each year, and new Alaskans are automatically registered to vote when they get a state driver’s license or apply for the Permanent Fund dividend.
This chart, using data from the Alaska Division of Elections, shows the number of registered voters during each primary election since 1974, noting the start of Permanent Fund dividend automatic voter registration. (James Brooks/Alaska Beacon)
Opting out is possible, but statistics show that relatively few Alaskans take advantage of the opt-out function.
In addition, few Alaskans notify the Division of Elections when they move away, and several states have recently withdrawn from an information-sharing network that notifies elections officials if someone registered in another state.
If a registered voter simply moves away and doesn’t vote in Alaska again, it may take four or more years for that person to be removed from the voter rolls for inactivity.
That combination of factors means the state’s voter rolls are growing, year after year, putting downward pressure on voter turnout rates.
Two years ago, Alaska held a special general election on the same day as the primary election, which gave voters an additional reason to turn out to vote.
In the three statewide primary elections before that one, voter turnout wasn’t significantly different from this year’s election.
Low turnout in August doesn’t mean low turnout in November, however. In 2000, voters turned out in droves after ignoring the polls in November — more than 60% of the state’s registered voters participated in the presidential election that year.
Thus far, there’s no reason to think the pattern will be different this time.
Anchorage is commemorating Juneteenth with dancing, music and celebrations of Black excellence and culture this weekend.
The citywide Juneteenth celebration also includes opportunities for education, community gathering and reflection, and features vendors and guest speakers. The event kicked off Friday and continues from 1 to 6 p.m. Saturday and Sunday on the Delaney Park Strip.
Tragil Wade, an entrepreneur, author and inspirational speaker who is the big sister of former NBA great Dwyane Wade, was Friday’s special guest.
Saturday’s festivities, spotlighting the theme “Community and Culture,” kicked off with a freedom rally and parade. Saturday also features a youth segment, hip-hop dancing, community line dancing, multiple DJs and a performance from Soul Society.
“Faith and Family” is the theme for Sunday’s festivities. There will be a special Father’s Day opening at 1 p.m., a praise cardio session on the grass and an HBCU gospel segment. The afternoon will close with a community praise dance.
Juneteenth commemorates the day that the last slaves in the Confederacy were informed of their freedom following the Emancipation Proclamation on June 19, 1865. Long celebrated by Black Americans, Juneteenth became a federal holiday in 2021. In 2023, the Anchorage Assembly made Juneteenth an official city holiday, and in 2024, the Alaska Legislature passed a bill to designate Juneteenth as a state holiday.
A pilot was killed in a plane crash in mountainous terrain near Cordova, Alaska State Troopers said Friday.
The agency was notified of the overdue Piper Pacer around 8 p.m. Thursday, troopers said in an online post. The pilot was believed to be the sole person on board the aircraft, which was thought to be flying between Yakutat and Fairbanks, troopers said.
Aircraft from the Alaska Air National Guard and Alaska Wildlife Troopers started searching for the plane, and a Guard helicopter crew found the overdue Piper Pacer around 4 p.m. Friday where it had crashed near Kanak Island, about 40 miles southeast of Cordova, troopers said.
The pilot, whom troopers did not identify, was found dead in the crashed plane, troopers said. His body was take to the State Medical Examiner Office in Anchorage for autopsy and positive identification, according to troopers.
Troopers said the pilot’s next of kin and the National Transportation Safety Board were notified.
The Alaska Senate plans to vote today on a new draft of a bill that would reduce taxes on the Alaska LNG project. It’s the last day of a special session Gov. Mike Dunleavy called to consider the issue.
Dunleavy and pipeline developer Glenfarne, which owns a 75% stake in the project, say a measure replacing a 2% annual property tax with a much smaller tax on gas throughput is essential to allowing the project to attract investors and court lenders. Dunleavy and Glenfarne applauded the version of the bill that passed the House a week ago.
The Alaska LNG project, estimated by the developer to cost up to $54.5 billion, includes an 807-mile pipeline, a conditioning facility on the North Slope to remove gas impurities such as carbon dioxide, and a liquefaction plant on the shores of Cook Inlet to export the gas to Asia. The project would be split into two phases: first, a shorter in-state pipeline to provide gas to Alaskans, and then the much more expensive — and much more lucrative — export infrastructure.
The Senate’s new draft retains many of the House’s provisions with some important changes.
Perhaps the most significant changes are to the project’s timeline: to be eligible for tax relief, the developer must commit to a final investment decision for the first phase by Jan. 1, 2028, and construction of the in-state pipeline would need to be complete by the end of 2032.
The House’s version required only that construction begin by Jan. 1, 2032.
The faster timeline is an effort to address Southcentral’s looming shortage of natural gas, said Sen. Bert Stedman, a Sitka Republican and a co-chair of the Senate Finance Committee. The Department of Natural Resources’ production forecast envisions demand outstripping Cook Inlet gas production by 2032, requiring producers to dip into storage.
“There’s been a lot of concern out of the Railbelt with the declining volume in Cook Inlet,” Stedman said.
But the more aggressive timeline sparked concerns from minority Republicans on the committee; it increases the risk on an already risky, marginal project, they said.
“That’s very damaging,” said Sen. Mike Cronk, a Tok Republican and the Senate minority leader. “There’s so many factors that we don’t control.”
Putting a “hard construction date” in the bill may be a “poison pill,” Cronk said.
Glenfarne and Gov. Mike Dunleavy did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the new version of the bill.
Stedman suggested future legislatures could revise the date to account for “unforeseen black swan events.”
“We can change these and modify these going forward,” Stedman said. “This is not in the Constitution, so I think there’d be some consideration under good faith trying to get the project constructed.”
The tax rate at the heart of the bill — the so-called alternative volumetric tax on gas flowing through the pipeline from the North Slope to Southcentral Alaska — would be fixed, rather than a weighted average tied to the cost of each component of the project.
The Senate draft sets the tax initially at 6.2 cents per 1,000 cubic feet of gas throughput, starting five years after gas begins to flow through the pipeline. The tax would take effect sooner if throughput reaches 500 million cubic feet per day, which is more than double what Southcentral Alaska uses now.
The tax would rise to 10.6 cents per 1,000 cubic feet once Phase 2 of the project, which includes the liquefied natural gas export facility, is up and running. The tax revenue from that mirrors what the Department of Revenue estimates the weighted tax that passed the House would yield.
The rates would rise between 1% and 3% each year, depending on inflation.
The House backed 30-plus years of tax breaks. Some senators were skeptical of that, so their version doubles the tax rate ten years after exports begin, then doubles them again in 2060.
The new bill retains key conditions for the tax relief included in the House’s version: the developer must commit to building a spur line to Fairbanks and negotiate project labor agreements with unions. It also includes up to $80 million in community impact funding for municipalities: $40 million due shortly after the final investment decision for each project phase.
It also includes House-passed price controls on in-state gas. Utilities would pay no more than $16 per million British thermal units, adjusted for inflation. That’s roughly $16.60 per 1,000 cubic feet, substantially higher than current Southcentral gas rates — about $10 — but likely cheaper than imported gas, according to Southcentral’s gas utility.
Also notable is an omission from the bill. It does not include a measure that had been under discussion that would subject large so-called S corporations and other pass-through entities in the oil and gas business, like LLCs, to the state’s corporate income tax.
Glenfarne, in its only comments so far on the new bill, urged lawmakers not to include that tax in the final version.
“If the Senate passes a bill with the proposed S Corp tax, it will introduce major hurdles for Alaska LNG to secure the right financing to build the project,” the company said in a statement provided by spokesperson Tim Fitzpatrick.
Senators are due to amend the bill and take a final vote later today.
The special session expires at midnight tonight, but Gov. Mike Dunleavy has already signed a proclamation calling another special session to begin Saturday.
Asked whether the new special session represented a contingency plan in an event the bill failed to pass, Dunleavy spokesperson Jeff Turner declined to say.
“We will see what happens,” Turner said.
This is a developing story. Check back for updates.
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