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It’s MAGA v Broligarch in the battle over prediction markets

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It’s MAGA v Broligarch in the battle over prediction markets

Hello and welcome to Regulator, a newsletter for Verge subscribers about the love-hate (but mostly hate) relationship between Silicon Valley and Washington. I hope everyone got to celebrate George Washington’s birthday in their preferred manner: skiing, staycationing, subscribing to The Verge if you haven’t already, etc.

Prediction: this is going to be a mess

Political alliances are rarely permanent, so it’s somewhat predictable that the MAGA-tech bro alliance seems to have fallen apart in the span of a single year. Which side the administration would actually choose, though, was more difficult to foresee.

Last winter, it appeared that two groups were in a tenuous relationship, held together by Elon Musk’s shameless execution of the DOGE agenda and Big Tech signing massive checks to settle Donald Trump’s lawsuits against them. But last night, the Trump administration made a choice: the money. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced that they would sue any state who tried to regulate prediction markets like Kalshi — even the Republican states.

On Tuesday, the CFTC filed an amicus brief to the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, officially opposing an onslaught of lawsuits filed by the states against betting markets like Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, and Crypto.com. (The latter two, known primarily as cryptocurrency exchanges, have partnered with Kalshi and created a standalone prediction market called OG, respectively.) But unusually, the brief was accompanied by a threat — posted on X, of all places. In a video directly facing the camera posted on Tuesday night, sole CFTC chairman Michael Selig asserted his commission’s authority to regulate prediction markets and stated that the federal government was prepared to sue: “To those who seek to challenge our authority in this space, let me be clear: we will see you in court.”

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Had Selig simply written a staid Wall Street Journal op-ed asserting the CFTC’s authority (which he also did), that would have barely raised an eyebrow. But in 2026, a video threat, especially one posted on X, is basically grounds to instigate a political firestorm — one that Spencer Cox, the Republican Governor of Utah, gladly kindled. “Mike, I appreciate you attempting this with a straight face, but I don’t remember the CFTC having authority over the ‘derivative market’ of LeBron James rebounds,” he posted in response (also on X). “These prediction markets you are breathlessly defending are gambling—pure and simple. They are destroying the lives of families and countless Americans, especially young men. They have no place in Utah.” He promised that Utah would continue to pursue litigation and beat the federal government in court if need be.

This wouldn’t be the first time that Utah and Cox have voiced their opposition to federal overreach regarding emerging technology. Last year, they publicly opposed an executive order that would have given the Justice Department the power to sue states passing and enforcing AI regulatory laws. The prediction markets issue hits a particular nerve in Utah: nearly half of the state is Mormon, and the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints officially opposes all government-sanctioned forms of gambling, even state lotteries. But Cox’s declaration is what’s known in political circles as a “weathervane”: if one deeply Republican state is pushing back against the Trump administration on a new front, who else on the right might follow suit — and what sorts of new broligarch technologies would they fight against?

Is it a coincidence that Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei’s big visit to Washington happened just as the Pentagon was reconsidering its relationship with the AI company? Over the past two weeks, Amodei published a 38-page letter to Congress warning of the rising existential risks of artificial intelligence, conducted an interview with Axios’s Mike Allen (and sponsored their newsletter), and met with Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Jim Banks (R-IN) on Capitol Hill to support their bill banning the sale of advanced AI chips to China.

But Amodei barely finished his capitol blitz when Axios broke the news over the weekend that the Pentagon wasn’t just impatient with Anthropic’s reticence to use Claude for unrestricted purposes, but that it would actively punish Anthropic for refusing to cooperate by designating them a “supply-chain risk.” If it goes through, any company that wants to work with the military would have to cut ties with Anthropic. As one Pentagon official described it, “It will be an enormous pain in the ass to disentangle, and we are going to make sure they pay a price for forcing our hand like this.”

The Pentagon’s move makes no sense for anyone who sees Claude as a superior AI enterprise product to its competitors at the Pentagon (Gemini, ChatGPT, and Grok). If viewed through the lens of every former interaction that Trump’s had with companies that voiced ideological opposition to his agenda however, their treatment of Anthropic is par for the course. Years ago, for instance, Trump threatened to cut off Amazon’s access to their sweetheart deal with the US Postal Service, in retaliation for Jeff Bezos’ ownership of the then highly critical Washington Post.

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But for me, the question is: exactly what caused the ideological break, and how much of it was even about national security? In the past few months, there’s been a bizarre spurt of online messaging from right-wing influencers trying to claim that Anthropic, of all the AI companies, was too woke — the kind of woke that could convince kids to become trans, or DEI-pill them, or whatever lib-coded nightmares a MAGA personality could dream up. There wasn’t much proof that they could point to, other than its employees expressing opinions that could be lib-coded, if you’re not fully reading the entire tweet:

Screenshot va @KatieMiller/X.

Speaking of influencers eating their own:

  • Steve Bannon is under MAGA siege for his 2018 texts with Jeffrey Epstein, newly unearthed from the Justice Department’s Epstein Files, wherein he suggested that Trump should be removed from office using the 25th Amendment. Influencers calling for him to be questioned include Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who broke from Trump and the GOP for trying to bury the Epstein Files, and retired Gen. Mike Flynn. Notably, both of them rose to prominence in 2020 by backing QAnon, the online conspiracy theory that claimed that an elite ring of Satan-worshipping pedophiles were in control of the government. (It may not help Bannon that he called Epstein “God” in one of the texts).
  • Mike Davis, an anti-Big Tech lawyer who previously represented Trump in his lawsuits against Meta, took credit for the ouster of former friend and ally Gail Slater from the Department of Justice’s antitrust division, according to texts obtained by The Free Press. Though the two were once allies due to their shared interest in holding Big Tech accountable, their relationship started fracturing over disagreements about when to enforce antitrust laws and when to go for settlements.
  • And we’re back to Bannon: per The Bulwark, he and fellow MAGA political operative Boris Epshteyn are being sued for their own shady cryptocurrency operation.

The White House is convening a third meeting between the crypto industry and the banking industry this week, continuing to hash out which major financial entity gets to reap the interests from yield-bearing stablecoin accounts (or if they get to bear interest at all). They have until March 1st to deliver draft language for the Senate. Good luck, y’all!

And finally, looksmaxxing Recess.

Can we all agree that HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy is framemogging Kid Rock in this video?

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See you next week, and send all tips to every way that we list here.

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The future of local TV news has taken a Trumpian turn

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The future of local TV news has taken a Trumpian turn

This is The Stepback, a weekly newsletter breaking down one essential story from the tech world. For more stories on Big Tech versus politics in Washington, DC, follow Tina Nguyen and read Regulator. The Stepback arrives in our subscribers’ inboxes at 8AM ET. Opt in for The Stepback here.

A long time ago, in 2004, the Federal Communications Commission laid down a rule designed to prevent a monopoly: No one company could broadcast to more than 39 percent of all the TV households in the United States. But then Donald Trump returned to the White House in 2025. Brendan Carr became FCC chairman and immediately kicked off a deregulatory initiative called “Delete, Delete, Delete,” in which Carr vowed to get rid of “every rule, regulation, or guidance document” that placed “unnecessary regulatory burdens” on companies. And within months, Nexstar, which already owned over 200 stations nationwide and had hit its ownership cap, announced that it had entered an agreement to purchase its rival, Tegna, for an estimated $6.2 billion — something that could only happen, however, if Carr agreed to change the FCC’s rules.

If you ask Nexstar why it’s pursuing a merger that would give it control of over 80 percent of the market, it’d point to Big Tech as the culprit. As advertisers take their money to Netflix, YouTube, and other digital streamers, linear television — the local television news, the broadcast affiliates, the basic cable networks — has suffered, forcing them to consolidate and shut down newsrooms. In that sense, Nexstar argued, the merger would help it compete for ad revenue with the streaming services, thereby building more robust local journalism. However, the merger’s opponents believe that this is a basic violation of antitrust laws and principles — not to mention the danger of letting one company have editorial control over the vast majority of America’s local television newsrooms.

But the second Trump administration handles regulatory hurdles a little differently than others, and companies have found that it’s faster to get what they want if they bypass the agencies and talk (read: suck up) to Trump directly. And when Nexstar did so publicly, it confirmed its opponents’ fears about political influence. Last September, in the fraught weeks after the fatal shooting of Charlie Kirk, Nexstar announced it would no longer broadcast Jimmy Kimmel Live! — a response to Carr’s claim that the FCC could revoke the broadcast licenses of TV stations that aired the comedian’s comments related to Kirk. It briefly led to ABC suspending Kimmel’s show, though ABC and Nexstar soon reversed their decision after a massive nationwide backlash and an ABC boycott.

However, Nexstar’s loyalty to Trump himself was not enough to win over his most powerful MAGA supporters. Newsmax, a cable news network with a deeply pro-Trump bent, and its CEO, longtime Trump donor and outside adviser Chris Ruddy, filed a lawsuit objecting to the merger, claiming that Nexstar’s anticompetitive behavior would force channels like his off the air with steeper carriage fees. He specifically accused Nexstar of jacking up the fees for stations to carry Newsmax, while offering its similar network, NewsNation, for much cheaper.

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The Nexstar-Tegna MAGA makeover then took a more subtle turn. NewsNation hired the pro-Trump Fox News commentator Katie Pavlich and gave her her own primetime show. (The network had already hired a slew of former Fox journalists as well.) Around this time, a political group called Keep News Local began airing ads in DC that seemed to directly address Trump, praising him for having “defeated the fake news monopolies before through independent voices and local news” and claiming that the Nexstar-Tegna merger was “crucial for MAGA to survive.” (A little self-contradictory and mildly illogical, but it’s the kind of stuff that Trump likes to hear.) When I last spoke to Ruddy in February, I asked if he’d worried that the dark money going into Keep News Local would sway Trump, and he chose his words carefully: “I think at the end of the day, Trump makes up his own mind. I’m not sure he’s going to be influenced by an ad campaign.”

For months, no one could accurately predict if Trump would override Carr’s wishes and bless the deal, as he’s often done for other companies facing regulatory scrutiny. Trump’s Truth Social posts about the merger have been a good indicator of how precarious the merger has been and who’s been able to influence him at any given moment: Last November, he blasted the deal as an “EXPANSION OF THE FAKE NEWS NETWORKS,” but by February, he posted that the deal would “help knock out the Fake News because there will be more competition.”

Several current and former NewsNation employees told Status at the time that they feared that the parent company was steering NewsNation away from the centrist, “unbiased” reputation they’d long cultivated. “A lot of people within the network believe that the network has gone hard right to appeal to Trump and Brendan Carr,” one former employee told Status. Coincidentally, days before the deal was finalized, NewsNation began ramping up its explicitly pro-Trump content, tweeting a clip of CNN’s Kaitlan Collins being berated by White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, along with the comment “Just going to leave this here.”

When Trump greenlit the merger in mid-March, but before the FCC’s three commissioners could vote on whether to waive the ownership cap, Nexstar and Tegna immediately announced a new complication: Tegna and Nexstar had already started merging. Tegna was no more and CEO Mike Steib had already sold $22.6 million of his company stock.

In response, eight state attorneys general and satellite TV operator DirectTV, which had already been planning to file separate federal antitrust suits against the merger, asked US District Judge Troy Nunley in Sacramento for an emergency restraining order that would prevent Nexstar from taking over Tegna’s assets. The order was granted on March 27th and on April 17, Nunley issued a formal injunction, ruling that Tegna must be operated as an independent financial entity, and Nexstar must take steps to ensure it remains separate from Tegna before further legal proceedings.

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For now, Nunley has allowed the states and DirecTV to combine their cases, in which both argue that the merger was a clear violation of antitrust laws and would crush news competition.

Meanwhile, Republicans and Democrats in Congress are furious at Carr. On March 30th, Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Maria Cantwell (D-WA) sent the chairman a joint letter admonishing him for allowing his staff to waive the regulations to let the merger pass, instead of having the full commission of political appointees — one from the Biden administration — vote on it. “Under these circumstances,” they wrote, “any subsequent vote risks being largely procedural rather than a genuine exercise of commission responsibility.” They also pointed out that their hasty approval without the commission’s approval would now complicate the merger financially: “In a transaction of this scale, where integration proceeds quickly and unwinding becomes impractical, delay in judicial review can insulate the decision from meaningful challenge.” Notably, though they share similar ideological views on the media and deregulation, Cruz and Carr have frequently clashed over how to achieve their objectives. Cruz previously slammed Carr as a “mafioso,” for instance, for the way he’d used the FCC to silence Kimmel.

But even if it’s legally paused, the journalistic merger’s fallout has started to hit local news. NPR’s David Folkenfirk reported on Tuesday that Tegna journalists had already started receiving orders to stop broadcasting content from major broadcasters like ABC, CBS, and NBC — media outlets being targeted by Carr — and instead begin airing content from Nexstar’s NewsNation.

  • Brendan Carr’s views on using the FCC to punish major broadcasters was outlined pretty extensively in the chapter he authored in Project 2025, an initiative led by the conservative Heritage Foundation on how to reform the federal bureaucracy to be more favorable to the American right.
  • Exactly how much is local television losing to digital? According to industry publication NewscastStudio, in an investor call defending the purchase, Nexstar chairman Perry Sook cited a market research study from Borrell Associates, which found that “digital advertising in local markets exceeds $100 billion, compared to just $25 billion for local linear television advertising, with nearly two-thirds of digital ad dollars flowing to five major technology companies.”
  • If you want to see exactly how much Keep Local News was trying to suck up to Trump, the ads are archived here.
  • The Vergecast has a long-running segment called “Brendan Carr is a dummy.”
  • The LA Times reported on last week’s preliminary hearings in front of Nunley, and how lawyers for Nexstar, the states, and DirecTV plan to argue their case.
  • The Desk has insights from Kirk Varner, a former TV newsroom director, on how the case could go.
  • Andrew Liptak covered Nexstar’s previous acquisition sprees for The Verge in 2018.
  • Adi Robertson walks through exactly how the Kimmel suspension was an attack on free speech.
  • Brendan Carr keeps trying to convince people that he’s not threatening to suspend broadcast licenses for reporting on unfavorable things like the Iran war, reports Lauren Feiner.
  • The Vergecast has a long-running segment called “Brendan Carr is a dummy.”
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Chinese robot breaks human world record in Beijing half-marathon

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Chinese robot breaks human world record in Beijing half-marathon

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A Chinese-built humanoid robot beat the human half-marathon world record in Beijing on Sunday, marking a breakthrough moment in a high-stakes global race for technological dominance.

A robot developed by Chinese smartphone maker Honor completed the 21-kilometer (13-mile) race in 50 minutes and 26 seconds, beating the human record of about 57 minutes set by Uganda’s Jacob Kiplimo last month.

The performance marked a dramatic improvement from last year’s inaugural event, when the top robot finished in more than 2 hours and 40 minutes.

Dozens of humanoid robots competed alongside about 12,000 human runners, navigating a parallel course to avoid collisions.

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CHINA’S COMPACT HUMANOID ROBOT SHOWS OFF BALANCE AND FLIPS

A robot crosses the finish line in the Beijing E-Town Half Marathon and Humanoid Robot Half-Marathon held in the outskirts of Beijing on April 19, 2026. (Andy Wong/AP)

Nearly half of the robots ran using autonomous navigation, while others relied on remote control, organizers said.

Despite the breakthrough, the race still saw glitches, with some robots stumbling at the start or veering into barriers.

Engineers said the winning robot was designed to mimic elite athletes, featuring long legs of about 37 inches and advanced cooling systems to sustain performance.

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US TARGETS CHINESE ROBOTS OVER SECURITY FEARS

“Looking ahead, some of these technologies might be transferred to other areas,” said Du Xiaodi, an engineer with the Honor team. “For example, structural reliability and liquid-cooling technology could be applied in future industrial scenarios.”

Team members celebrate next to the winning Honor Lightning humanoid robot during a medal ceremony after the second Beijing E-Town Half Marathon and Humanoid Robot Half Marathon in Beijing, China, on April 19, 2026. (Maxim Shemetov/Reuters)

Spectators reacted with a mix of amazement and unease at the machines’ rapid progress.

“It’s the first time robots have surpassed humans, and that’s something I never imagined,” Sun Zhigang, who attended the event with his son, told The Associated Press.

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HUMANOID ROBOTS HIT MASS PRODUCTION IN CHINA

“The robots’ speed far exceeds that of humans,” spectator Wang Wen told the outlet. “This may signal the arrival of sort of a new era.”

A robot starts alongside human runners at the Beijing E-Town Half Marathon and Humanoid Half Marathon on the outskirts of Beijing on April 19, 2026. (Ng Han Guan/AP)

Experts say the race highlights China’s accelerating push to dominate robotics and artificial intelligence, even as widespread commercial use of humanoid robots remains limited, according to Reuters. The experts said Chinese robotics firms are still working to develop the AI software needed for humanoids to match the efficiency of human factory workers.

Runners take pictures of a humanoid robot during the second Beijing E-Town Half Marathon and Humanoid Robot Half Marathon in Beijing on April 19, 2026. (Haruna Furuhashi/Pool Photo via AP)

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“The future will definitely be an AI era,” engineering student Chu Tianqi told Reuters. “If people don’t know how to use AI now … they will definitely become obsolete.”

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The competition underscores a broader technological race between China and the United States, as Beijing invests heavily in advanced robotics as part of its long-term economic strategy.

The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.

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The RAM shortage could last years

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The RAM shortage could last years

According to Nikkei Asia, even as suppliers ramp up DRAM production, manufacturers are only expected to meet 60 percent of demand by the end of 2027. SK Group chairman has even said that shortages could last until 2030.

The world’s largest memory makers — Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron — are all working to add new fabrication capacity, but almost none of it will be online until at least 2027, if not 2028. SK opened a fab in Cheongju in February, but that is the only increase in production among the three for 2026.

Nikkei says that production would need to increase by 12 percent a year in 2026 and 2027 to meet demand. But according to Counterpoint Research, an increase of only 7.5 percent is planned.

The new facilities will primarily focus on producing high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which is used in AI data centers. With the companies already prioritizing HBM over general-purpose DRAM used in computers and phones, it’s not clear how much these new fabs will help alleviate the price crunch facing consumer electronics. Everything from phones and laptops, to VR headsets and gaming handhelds have seen price increases due to the RAM shortage.

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