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Who will win the WNBA championship? Bold expert predictions as play resumes

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Who will win the WNBA championship? Bold expert predictions as play resumes

A month without basketball is over. Well, WNBA basketball that is.

After a thrilling end to the Paris Olympic basketball tournament, the gold-medal winning Americans have again dispersed across the country to their respective WNBA teams. The New York Liberty entered the All-Star/Olympic break with the league’s best record (21-4) and are looking to claim the franchise’s first title. After a bit of a slow start, the Las Vegas Aces are looming in fifth at 16-8 but could very well complete the WNBA’s first three-peat since the Houston Comets from 1997-2000. A number of other title contenders (the Connecticut Sun, Minnesota Lynx and Seattle Storm) are between the two 2023 finals participants with significant aspirations, and those on the bottom half of the standings are seeking to throw their hats in the mix.

Ahead of games resuming on Thursday, here are five predictions for the rest of the season.

Which team will make a second-half surge?

Sabreena Merchant: Minnesota. The Lynx have Napheesa Collier back, and they’ve been plus-11.4 per 100 possessions with her on the floor. Cheryl Reeve no longer has the weight of the world on her shoulders after Team USA won gold in Paris. Minnesota has had the league’s best defense all season, despite slumping in July in Collier’s absence. Now fully healthy, the Lynx can take advantage of the league’s easiest remaining schedule — a .441 opposing win percentage awaits, per Tankathon.

Ben Pickman: Will the Atlanta Dream finish in the top six of the standings? Probably not. But if you’re circling a franchise in the 7-12 range as a team that might look drastically different in the second half of the season, then keep a close eye on the Dream. Atlanta entered the All-Star/Olympic break 7-17 and in ninth place. The big reason to anticipate some positive change is that the time off gave the Dream’s best players time to heal. Star wing Rhyne Howard missed a month with a left ankle injury, and during Howard’s absence Atlanta won just a single game. She returned for the final game before the Olympic break, before helping the U.S. 3×3 team win bronze. Perhaps just as important, significant offseason acquisition Jordin Canada played only four games in the first half of the season due to two injuries. Her return could be an important jolt to Atlanta’s offense, which was 11th in offensive rating through the date of Howard’s injury on June 19. With Canada, Howard and Allisha Gray all playing together, Atlanta becomes a dangerous group to slow.

What is your biggest question?

Pickman: Will any Olympic stars who are not currently signed lift a franchise during the stretch run?

Perhaps this is a bit of recency bias, but I’m watching to see if Emma Meesseman (Belgium), Gabby Williams (France) or Marine Johannes (France) sign with a WNBA franchise to help during the second half. Despite the prioritization rule coming into effect this May, all three are still eligible to join the W if they so choose because of a bit of a CBA loophole. Of course, not all of the WNBA’s contenders have the roster space to sign one of those players, but all three could be difference-makers. Johannes has proven to make an impact in bursts when she came off the New York Liberty bench. Williams showed fearlessness and high-level playmaking during the Olympics, and she has produced in the WNBA with the Seattle Storm. Meesseman hasn’t played in the WNBA since 2022, but she has won the EuroLeague MVP in each of the past two seasons and was the best player not named A’ja Wilson during the Paris Olympics.

Merchant: Do the Aces have enough in the tank to three-peat?

A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Kelsey Plum each rank in the top 15 in minutes per game, plus they played 163, 115 and 90 minutes, respectively, during the Olympics (not counting the All-Star Game or other exhibitions). Las Vegas is tied for the most games remaining in the league at 16 and has the third-most difficult schedule. The Aces currently sit in fifth, so they have to leapfrog at least one team to get home-court advantage in the first round, and potentially two more for home-court in the WNBA semifinals. They already get every opponent’s best shot as the defending champions, and now they have to make up ground with a group that has been heavily worked during the first part of the season. It seems foolish to bet against Wilson and Co. after the successes of the past two years, but 2024 has been an extra challenge from the jump. On a neutral site with rest, I’d pick Las Vegas against any other team, but the conditions won’t be that favorable for the Aces going forward. Being able to come from behind after setting the pace last year will be a new task for this squad.

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Who will win Rookie of the Year?

Merchant: Caitlin Clark.

Perhaps no rookie has ever come into the league with such high expectations. Not only was she tasked with turning the Indiana Fever into a contender, but she carried the weight of the entire league on her shoulders. She has delivered in so many ways, helping the WNBA’s popularity rocket while steadily improving on the court. She leads the league in assists while pacing rookies in points per game. Clark also leads first-years in usage (24.8 percent) while posting the highest effective field-goal percentage (50.9 percent) among rookies who average at least 25 minutes in at least 18 appearances this season.

Clark’s individual numbers are hard to argue, but this isn’t a cut-and-dry case because Angel Reese has been more impactful for team success. Reese has a plus-3.4 net rating while Clark lags behind at minus-6.8. Furthermore, the Sky are 24.9 points per 100 possessions better when Reese plays, and the Fever are essentially neutral whether Clark is on or off the court. However, the team context isn’t enough to overcome what Clark has accomplished at the toughest position and while at the top of the scouting report.

Pickman: Caitlin Clark.

It feels like forever ago that Clark last played in a WNBA game. But lest anyone forget that in her final game before the multi-week hiatus, Clark set a new single-game WNBA record with 19 assists. Having to play 11 games in 20 days, Clark and the Fever got off to a slower start than many on the outside expected entering this season. But since Indiana’s early-season sprint, which ended June 2, Indiana is sixth in net rating and Clark’s net rating is nearly 16 points better per 100 possessions. She leads the league in assists, ranks third in 3-pointers and seventh in total points, all while playing the second-most minutes of anyone across the WNBA. More than any single counting stat, if she is able to continue to improve on her first half the way she did through the months of June and July, then Indiana could also become the kind of opponent no other franchise wants to face in the playoffs.

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Who will win MVP?

Pickman: A’ja Wilson.

She should win MVP and she will win MVP. The biggest question through the first half of the season was whether it will be a unanimous vote. Jonquel Jones and Elena Delle Donne have come very close in recent years, but with a second half to the season as strong as Wilson’s first, that could be another aspect she adds to her legacy this summer.

Merchant: A’ja Wilson.

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Exactly what Ben said. The WNBA can start creating this trophy for Wilson right now as she joins the three-timers club of Lauren Jackson, Lisa Leslie and Sheryl Swoopes.

Who will win the WNBA championship?

Merchant: I was burned by picking New York at the start of the 2023 regular season and at the start of the 2023 finals, yet here I am, tempted by the Liberty again. They’ve had a superlative first half of the season and have the depth to stay fresh over the final month heading into the playoffs. Las Vegas retains the head coaching advantage, and the Aces have the best player in the world, but New York might just have the better team this time around.

Pickman: The Liberty have been the WNBA’s best team thus far, with Sabrina Ionescu’s continued ascension, Jones’ dominance and the emergence of viable reserve options all helping New York jump to a fast start. But the Aces haven’t done enough to sway me from my preseason title pick. Sure, the eight losses are the most they’ve had since 2022, but with Chelsea Gray in the starting lineup, Las Vegas is 8-2 with a plus-12.3 net rating, a mark slightly ahead of the Liberty. Wilson is better and so is Jackie Young. The Aces might not have home-court throughout this postseason, but I’m not convinced that will matter either.

(Photo of A’ja Wilson: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)

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Patriots send 4-time Pro Bowler Matt Judon to Falcons after contract stalemate: reports

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Patriots send 4-time Pro Bowler Matt Judon to Falcons after contract stalemate: reports

The New England Patriots and Matthew Judon found an end to their contract stalemate, but the four-time Pro Bowl edge rusher won’t be remaining with the team. 

The Patriots have reportedly sent Judon to the Atlanta Falcons in exchange for a 2025 NFL Draft third-round pick, per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. 

Though Judon gets a new start with a different team, NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero adds the Falcons and Judon haven’t worked out a new contract just yet.

Matthew Judon #9 of the New England Patriots defends against the Dallas Cowboys during the second half at AT&T Stadium on October 1, 2023 in Arlington, Texas. (Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

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Judon has been searching for a new contract this offseason, as he is set to make $6.5 million in base salary in the final year of his current deal. However, those contract talks with the Patriots didn’t go according to his plan, leading to a stalemate heading into training camp. 

There was also a moment early in training camp when Judon and new head coach of the Patriots, Jerod Mayo, got into a heated argument, though it wasn’t known what was said. 

NEW PATRIOTS COACH JEROD MAYO HAS PLAN TO COMBAT TRAINING CAMP FIGHTS

Judon did say that he wanted to remain a Patriot, but that all changes now as he heads to the NFC South to a Falcons squad in desperate need of more production on the defensive line. 

Judon couldn’t play a full season in 2023 after tearing his bicep, leading to only four games played. But, during those four games, he had four sacks, 13 tackles and nine quarterback hits. 

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Prior to his season-ending injury, Judon totaled 15.5 sacks in 2022 and 12.5 the year prior, earning himself his third and fourth Pro Bowl seasons. Judon made it to four straight Pro Bowls from 2019-2022, the first two coming with the Baltimore Ravens. 

Matt Judon looks on field

Matthew Judon #9 of the New England Patriots warms up at AT&T Stadium on October 1, 2023 in Arlington, Texas. (Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

Over his eight-year career in the NFL, Judon has produced 66.5 sacks. 

The Patriots loved the type of production Judon brought to the table, but the many extensions handed out, especially on defense, didn’t come his way.

The Patriots signed safeties Kyle Dugger and Jabrill Peppers, while defensive lineman Christian Barmore got a lucrative deal as well. New England also dished out extensions to running back Rhamondre Stevenson and offensive tackle Mike Onwenu. 

Meanwhile, the Falcons just saw rookie edge rusher Bralen Trice hit the injured reserve, and they were already in need of more help at the position.

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Matt Judon waits for snap

Matthew Judon #9 of the New England Patriots lines up before a play at AT&T Stadium on October 1, 2023 in Arlington, Texas. (Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

If Judon can stay healthy, the Falcons defense is likely to see an increase in their sack totals, as well as their overall presence on the defensve line, where Judon will be teamed up with defensive tackle Grady Jarrett, among others. 

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Cautious Rams pull Matthew Stafford from practice due to tight hamstring

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Cautious Rams pull Matthew Stafford from practice due to tight hamstring

Aaron Donald stood on the sideline Wednesday looking fit enough to immediately come out of retirement and play for the Rams.

A few yards away, 36-year-old quarterback Matthew Stafford stood apart from the action, apparent hamstring tightness shortening his day during a joint practice with the Dallas Cowboys in Oxnard.

Even if it was only a twinge, it was enough for the Rams to shut down Stafford. The 16th-year pro participated in three series before Jimmy Garoppolo took over the first-team offense and Stetson Bennett worked with the second unit.

Stafford was scheduled to speak with reporters on Wednesday but he was not made available after the two-hour workout. Rams coach Sean McVay was not scheduled to speak with reporters.

But pulling Stafford from practice said it all.

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Less than a month before the season opener at Detroit, McVay cannot afford to take chances.

He already is wrestling with the fact that star receiver Puka Nacua is sidelined because of a knee injury. And starting offensive linemen Alaric Jackson, Jonah Jackson and Rob Havenstein remain out because of injuries.

There has been no indication that any of those starters will not be available for the Sept. 8 opener.

But if the Rams aren’t pushing for their return, they certainly are going to handle Stafford delicately, especially with their current back-up quarterback situation.

Garoppolo is suspended for the first two regular-season games for violating the NFL’s performance-enhancing substances policy while playing for the Las Vegas Raiders. Bennett is coming off last Sunday’s four-interception performance in a 13-12 preseason victory over the Cowboys.

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Garoppolo did not play in the game against the Cowboys, and it seems unlikely that McVay would put him at risk in Saturday’s game against the Chargers or the preseason finale against the Houston Texans.

So the opportunity to work with the first-team offense on Wednesday was something of a rare chance for the Rams to evaluate the 11th-year pro with starters.

“Any time you get those opps, particularly against a defense like this with all the players that they got, is going to be valuable,” offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur said of Garoppolo. “So I know, again, there’s going to be a lot of things to clean up from everyone across the board, but I like the way he stepped in there and operated.”

LaFleur also said that Bennett corrected some of the mistakes he made last Sunday before tossing a game-tying touchdown pass against the Cowboys.

On Wednesday, the Rams offense had a few moments, but it was mainly a day for the starting defense to redeem itself.

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In last Thursday’s joint-practice with the Cowboys, the Rams struggled against quarterback Dak Prescott and receiver Brandin Cooks. A week later, rookie edge rusher Jared Verse, second-year edge rusher Byron Young and veteran linebacker Ernest Jones led a spirited unit that “bounced back, communicated and played well,” defensive coordinator Chris Shula said.

Verse went down briefly — “scared us a little bit,” Shula said — but he finished the practice.

Donald, a certain first-ballot Hall of Famer, looked on and offered tips to players such as rookie tackle Braden Fiske.

“I know he’s in a great spot — such a great career — and he’s earned the right to do whatever he wants right now,” Shula said of Donald. “So he’s welcome back anytime. Anytime he wants to come coach and come help out he knows the door is always open.”

Etc.

The Rams signed defensive lineman Carlos Watkins, a seven-year veteran who has played for the Houston Texans, Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals. Watkins, 6-foot-3 and 305 pounds, has started 37 games and has six sacks. In 2021, he started 14 games for the Cowboys and had five tackles for losses. The addition of Watkins came after rotational lineman Larrell Murchison suffered an arm injury during last Sunday against the Cowboys. End Desjuan Johnson is also out because of an unspecified injury…. Second-year pro Warren McClendon Jr. played left tackle and Joe Noteboom played right tackle.

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Kylian Mbappe’s Real Madrid love affair: The dates with destiny leading to his debut

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Kylian Mbappe’s Real Madrid love affair: The dates with destiny leading to his debut

“Buenos dias a todos,” Kylian Mbappe said. “Bear with me, I’m going to try to speak in Spanish.”

No apology was needed. Mbappe’s excellent Spanish was perfectly understood by all 80,000 Real Madrid fans packed into the Santiago Bernabeu for his presentation last month.

“Wow, it’s incredible to be here,” Mbappe continued, clearly struck by the reception. “I’ve dreamed for many years of playing for Real Madrid. I want to especially thank all the ‘Madridistas’, because for many years they have given me a lot of affection, a lot of love, which went straight to my heart.“

It’s not uncommon for an arriving player to claim they have always dreamed of playing for their new club.

But it’s unusual for a signing to talk of feeling such love if they have regularly scored important goals against their new club, while regularly turning down public offers to come and play for them.

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In this case, the message made sense. The story of Mbappe growing up as a Madrid fan and idolising former galacticos Zinedine Zidane and Cristiano Ronaldo is already part of Bernabeu folklore. He began learning Spanish as a teenager so he would be ready for his move to Madrid. Many in the Spanish capital viewed him as one of their own long before he arrived following his Paris Saint-Germain exit.


Madrid president Florentino Perez and Mbappe at last month’s presentation (Oscar J. Barroso/Europa Press via Getty Images)

On the morning of his presentation, Mbappe visited Madrid’s training ground to greet his new coach Carlo Ancelotti and sign his contract with president Florentino Perez in the club’s offices. The ultra-modern facilities at Valdebebas, on the outskirts of Madrid, have changed a lot since his first visit in December 2012.

Back then, they pulled out all the stops to impress Mbappe, who turned 14 that week. Zidane, then an advisor to Perez without a formal role at Madrid after his legendary playing career, chaperoned him throughout. That was referenced in the forward’s July unveiling, when previously unseen footage of the pair in discussion during one of Mbappe’s trial games was shown.

Mbappe also had his first taste of the Bernabeu atmosphere that week, with Zidane hosting him and his family for a league game against Espanyol. It seemed like fate even then. As an eight-year-old, he had received a model of the stadium as a gift. “One day I’ll take you all to Real Madrid and we’ll sit in the VIP seats,” Mbappe told his parents that Christmas.

The game was not much fun from a Madrid perspective — Ronaldo and Fabio Coentrao scored, but Espanyol fought back for a 2-2 draw to leave Jose Mourinho’s team 10 points behind arch-rivals Barcelona in the title race.

But Mbappe left happy, especially because Zidane introduced him to Ronaldo after the game. A photo of the meeting was soon proudly displayed in his bedroom in the Parisian suburb of Bondy. Not that the teenage Mbappe and those around him allowed too much emotion to influence his career decisions.

The summer after he visited the Spanish capital, he turned down an offer from Madrid, entering Monaco’s youth system instead. “I wasn’t ready to go abroad and leave my friends and my country behind,” he later told Le Parisien.

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Kylian Mbappe and the story of Real Madrid’s decade-long ‘obsession’ to sign him

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But the connection between the boy from Bondy and the Bernabeu remained strong. Many in Madrid were watching as he made his Ligue 1 debut for Monaco aged 16, before scoring 26 goals in 44 games in his first full season.

In the summer of 2017, when Mbappe was still just 18, Madrid and Monaco’s hierarchy agreed a €180million transfer. But, reportedly on then-Los Blancos coach Zidane’s advice, he decided the smart choice was to join PSG instead. As luck would have it, Madrid and PSG were then drawn together in the following season’s Champions League last 16.

That meant Mbappe’s first taste of playing at the Bernabeu came against the team of his dreams in the February 2018 first leg. Mbappe’s cross around the half-hour mark was touched back by Neymar for Adrien Rabiot to sweep PSG in front, before Ronaldo scored twice in a 3-1 win for Madrid. Ronaldo also scored in the 2-1 victory in the return leg to take Madrid through.


Mbappe on his first trip to the Bernabeu with PSG in February 2018 (VI Images via Getty Images)

Mbappe won the World Cup with France that summer, and for a while he seemed fully focused on PSG.

But nobody in Madrid had forgotten about him. When Eden Hazard was signed from Chelsea in the summer of 2019, many Real Madrid fans chanted, “We want Mbappe,” at the Belgian’s Bernabeu presentation, causing some awkwardness for Perez.

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UEFA then obliged again by drawing PSG and Madrid together in the 2019-20 Champions League group stage. Injury ruled Mbappe out of the first meeting in Paris, which PSG won 3-0, but his star power was shown by the 81,044-capacity Bernabeu selling out for the return game.

When the line-ups were read out before kick-off, Madrid fans whistled their own player, Gareth Bale, but cheered Mbappe’s name. On the pitch, two Karim Benzema goals put Madrid in control. Mbappe hardly featured, until Thibaut Courtois’ fumble handed him a tap-in.

Mbappe’s celebration of his 70th goal in just 100 games for PSG was surprisingly muted. The Bernabeu crowd reacted to their team conceding a goal by chanting, “Sign him now.” Madrid youth product Pablo Sarabia scored an unlikely equaliser for PSG to claim a 2-2 draw that meant both teams were set to qualify — but for many, the result was not the most important thing.

Instead, the conversations before and after the game were about how Madrid could get Mbappe to join. One story that week in Spanish newspaper El Mundo claimed an agreement was already in place for him to run down his PSG contract and join Madrid on a free transfer in the summer of 2022.


A free transfer for Mbappe remained the most likely outcome given PSG were not minded to sell.

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Many at the Bernabeu assumed their club’s €180million offer in the summer of 2021, for a player with just a year left on his contract, was more about showing Mbappe they still wanted him than any real expectation of the bid being accepted.

That all added to the drama when Madrid and PSG were again drawn together in the Champions League last 16 in February 2022. Mbappe had four months left on his PSG deal and confidence was high around the Bernabeu that he would soon be theirs.

His fine display in the first leg in Paris led to even more mixed feelings. Playing wide on the left, he tormented Madrid right-back Dani Carvajal, who conceded a penalty by tripping him with an hour gone. Lionel Messi, then at PSG, took the spot kick, but Courtois saved.

Mbappe was not to be denied. With the game almost over, he bamboozled Madrid defenders Eder Militao and Lucas Vazquez, then shot hard and low into the far corner.


The Frenchman celebrates his goal against Madrid in February 2022 (Loic Baratoux/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

The passionate celebration that followed was much scrutinised. Some in Paris had questioned his commitment to the team still paying his significant wages. Madrid fans and executives were not sure what they felt — their team had lost a crucial game, but the glimpse of a potential future was thrilling. Marca’s cover the next day focused on the positive by proclaiming: “How good is Mbappe!”

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Three weeks later in Madrid, Mbappe started the game playing even better. Courtois was forced into two difficult saves inside the first 12 minutes. Just after half an hour, a neat side-foot finish pinged into the narrow gap between ‘keeper and post, but the goal was disallowed because team-mate Nuno Mendes was offside. Soon afterwards, the seemingly inevitable happened as Mbappe raced clear and confidently fired home.

The Bernabeu crowd watched in silence. Early in the second half, Mbappe dummied Courtois and finished into an empty net, only for another offside flag to frustrate him. Still, PSG remained 2-0 up, and the tie was almost over.

Then came an error by visiting goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma to help Benzema pull one back. Suddenly, energy surged through the stadium, PSG were stunned and Benzema knocked in two more to complete a hat-trick in less than 20 minutes as Madrid sealed another famous remontada.

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Mbappe had clearly been the outstanding player over the tie, but was out of the competition. He had also now witnessed the power and emotion of the Bernabeu when Madrid turned the tide like this, albeit from the other side. Most in Madrid believed it now even more likely he would soon experience that feeling himself in their iconic white shirt.

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That was definitely the expectation the next time Mbappe appeared in the Spanish capital, for a visit with PSG team-mate Achraf Hakimi, a Madrid native and Morocco international who began his career at Real.

Details were breathlessly reported by Madrid-supporting media. Mbappe and Hakimi stayed at the Hotel Eurostars Madrid Tower, which is within a skyscraper built on the site of Real’s former training ground. They ate at meat restaurant Lena, not far from the Bernabeu, which is a favourite of Madrid players. They later visited the Opium Madrid nightclub, also often frequented by the city’s young footballers.

Mbappe himself announced his presence in the city on social media — widely taken as a hint he would soon be living there permanently, as the Frenchman and his camp must have known it would.

It all meant the shock and disappointment were even greater just a few weeks later, when PSG announced that Mbappe had agreed a new contract to stay with them. It was a bitter blow for many at the Bernabeu, which wasn’t fully dispelled by beating Liverpool to win another Champions League trophy in Paris.


After all that disappointment, Mbappe did not return to Madrid for two years.

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In October 2022, it was reported he would accompany PSG team-mates including former Real players Sergio Ramos and Navas to a bullfight at the city’s Las Ventas arena, but he did not show. He visited Ramos’ stud farm near the defender’s native Seville the following month, but the Frenchman was not spotted anywhere near the Spanish capital.

Madrid fans still followed him closely. They cheered when he scored a hat-trick for France in the 2022 World Cup final in Qatar, and shared his pain when former Barcelona icon Messi’s Argentina won instead.

Last January, when it emerged he would leave when his contract ended this June, the extreme focus on everything Mbappe returned to the Bernabeu. Madrid supporters were doubly delighted in April when his brace dumped Barca out of the Champions League quarter-finals.

But the extent of their shared connection became clear only during Mbappe’s July presentation.


Mbappe in the Real Madrid dressing room in early August (Victor Carretero/Real Madrid via Getty Images)

He entered the Bernabeu’s shiny new press room beaming that day, while clutching the famous model of the stadium he had received as a kid almost two decades ago.

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“I was under a lot of pressure this morning when I woke up,” he said in excellent Spanish. “I thought I must enjoy every second, if my nerves allowed me. The passion and love the fans have shown me is unbelievable. I feel like an adopted member of this family.”

Many new players make emotional statements on their first days at a new club, but the bond between Mbappe and Madrid has existed for over a decade. It just took a while to come to fruition — and on Wednesday night in Warsaw, as Madrid take on Atalanta in the UEFA Super Cup, we should finally see it in the flesh.

(Top photo: Diego Souto/Getty Images)

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