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Who will win the WNBA championship? Bold expert predictions as play resumes

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Who will win the WNBA championship? Bold expert predictions as play resumes

A month without basketball is over. Well, WNBA basketball that is.

After a thrilling end to the Paris Olympic basketball tournament, the gold-medal winning Americans have again dispersed across the country to their respective WNBA teams. The New York Liberty entered the All-Star/Olympic break with the league’s best record (21-4) and are looking to claim the franchise’s first title. After a bit of a slow start, the Las Vegas Aces are looming in fifth at 16-8 but could very well complete the WNBA’s first three-peat since the Houston Comets from 1997-2000. A number of other title contenders (the Connecticut Sun, Minnesota Lynx and Seattle Storm) are between the two 2023 finals participants with significant aspirations, and those on the bottom half of the standings are seeking to throw their hats in the mix.

Ahead of games resuming on Thursday, here are five predictions for the rest of the season.

Which team will make a second-half surge?

Sabreena Merchant: Minnesota. The Lynx have Napheesa Collier back, and they’ve been plus-11.4 per 100 possessions with her on the floor. Cheryl Reeve no longer has the weight of the world on her shoulders after Team USA won gold in Paris. Minnesota has had the league’s best defense all season, despite slumping in July in Collier’s absence. Now fully healthy, the Lynx can take advantage of the league’s easiest remaining schedule — a .441 opposing win percentage awaits, per Tankathon.

Ben Pickman: Will the Atlanta Dream finish in the top six of the standings? Probably not. But if you’re circling a franchise in the 7-12 range as a team that might look drastically different in the second half of the season, then keep a close eye on the Dream. Atlanta entered the All-Star/Olympic break 7-17 and in ninth place. The big reason to anticipate some positive change is that the time off gave the Dream’s best players time to heal. Star wing Rhyne Howard missed a month with a left ankle injury, and during Howard’s absence Atlanta won just a single game. She returned for the final game before the Olympic break, before helping the U.S. 3×3 team win bronze. Perhaps just as important, significant offseason acquisition Jordin Canada played only four games in the first half of the season due to two injuries. Her return could be an important jolt to Atlanta’s offense, which was 11th in offensive rating through the date of Howard’s injury on June 19. With Canada, Howard and Allisha Gray all playing together, Atlanta becomes a dangerous group to slow.

What is your biggest question?

Pickman: Will any Olympic stars who are not currently signed lift a franchise during the stretch run?

Perhaps this is a bit of recency bias, but I’m watching to see if Emma Meesseman (Belgium), Gabby Williams (France) or Marine Johannes (France) sign with a WNBA franchise to help during the second half. Despite the prioritization rule coming into effect this May, all three are still eligible to join the W if they so choose because of a bit of a CBA loophole. Of course, not all of the WNBA’s contenders have the roster space to sign one of those players, but all three could be difference-makers. Johannes has proven to make an impact in bursts when she came off the New York Liberty bench. Williams showed fearlessness and high-level playmaking during the Olympics, and she has produced in the WNBA with the Seattle Storm. Meesseman hasn’t played in the WNBA since 2022, but she has won the EuroLeague MVP in each of the past two seasons and was the best player not named A’ja Wilson during the Paris Olympics.

Merchant: Do the Aces have enough in the tank to three-peat?

A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Kelsey Plum each rank in the top 15 in minutes per game, plus they played 163, 115 and 90 minutes, respectively, during the Olympics (not counting the All-Star Game or other exhibitions). Las Vegas is tied for the most games remaining in the league at 16 and has the third-most difficult schedule. The Aces currently sit in fifth, so they have to leapfrog at least one team to get home-court advantage in the first round, and potentially two more for home-court in the WNBA semifinals. They already get every opponent’s best shot as the defending champions, and now they have to make up ground with a group that has been heavily worked during the first part of the season. It seems foolish to bet against Wilson and Co. after the successes of the past two years, but 2024 has been an extra challenge from the jump. On a neutral site with rest, I’d pick Las Vegas against any other team, but the conditions won’t be that favorable for the Aces going forward. Being able to come from behind after setting the pace last year will be a new task for this squad.

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Who will win Rookie of the Year?

Merchant: Caitlin Clark.

Perhaps no rookie has ever come into the league with such high expectations. Not only was she tasked with turning the Indiana Fever into a contender, but she carried the weight of the entire league on her shoulders. She has delivered in so many ways, helping the WNBA’s popularity rocket while steadily improving on the court. She leads the league in assists while pacing rookies in points per game. Clark also leads first-years in usage (24.8 percent) while posting the highest effective field-goal percentage (50.9 percent) among rookies who average at least 25 minutes in at least 18 appearances this season.

Clark’s individual numbers are hard to argue, but this isn’t a cut-and-dry case because Angel Reese has been more impactful for team success. Reese has a plus-3.4 net rating while Clark lags behind at minus-6.8. Furthermore, the Sky are 24.9 points per 100 possessions better when Reese plays, and the Fever are essentially neutral whether Clark is on or off the court. However, the team context isn’t enough to overcome what Clark has accomplished at the toughest position and while at the top of the scouting report.

Pickman: Caitlin Clark.

It feels like forever ago that Clark last played in a WNBA game. But lest anyone forget that in her final game before the multi-week hiatus, Clark set a new single-game WNBA record with 19 assists. Having to play 11 games in 20 days, Clark and the Fever got off to a slower start than many on the outside expected entering this season. But since Indiana’s early-season sprint, which ended June 2, Indiana is sixth in net rating and Clark’s net rating is nearly 16 points better per 100 possessions. She leads the league in assists, ranks third in 3-pointers and seventh in total points, all while playing the second-most minutes of anyone across the WNBA. More than any single counting stat, if she is able to continue to improve on her first half the way she did through the months of June and July, then Indiana could also become the kind of opponent no other franchise wants to face in the playoffs.

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Who will win MVP?

Pickman: A’ja Wilson.

She should win MVP and she will win MVP. The biggest question through the first half of the season was whether it will be a unanimous vote. Jonquel Jones and Elena Delle Donne have come very close in recent years, but with a second half to the season as strong as Wilson’s first, that could be another aspect she adds to her legacy this summer.

Merchant: A’ja Wilson.

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Exactly what Ben said. The WNBA can start creating this trophy for Wilson right now as she joins the three-timers club of Lauren Jackson, Lisa Leslie and Sheryl Swoopes.

Who will win the WNBA championship?

Merchant: I was burned by picking New York at the start of the 2023 regular season and at the start of the 2023 finals, yet here I am, tempted by the Liberty again. They’ve had a superlative first half of the season and have the depth to stay fresh over the final month heading into the playoffs. Las Vegas retains the head coaching advantage, and the Aces have the best player in the world, but New York might just have the better team this time around.

Pickman: The Liberty have been the WNBA’s best team thus far, with Sabrina Ionescu’s continued ascension, Jones’ dominance and the emergence of viable reserve options all helping New York jump to a fast start. But the Aces haven’t done enough to sway me from my preseason title pick. Sure, the eight losses are the most they’ve had since 2022, but with Chelsea Gray in the starting lineup, Las Vegas is 8-2 with a plus-12.3 net rating, a mark slightly ahead of the Liberty. Wilson is better and so is Jackie Young. The Aces might not have home-court throughout this postseason, but I’m not convinced that will matter either.

(Photo of A’ja Wilson: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)

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SMU’s CFP nightmare: Interceptions, diverted billionaires and a ‘shell-shocked’ Cinderella

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SMU’s CFP nightmare: Interceptions, diverted billionaires and a ‘shell-shocked’ Cinderella

STATE COLLEGE, Pa. — Billions of dollars can buy a lot of things. It can help revive a football program and get your alma mater into a bigger conference. It can buy a private jet. But it can’t clear more space at a tiny regional airport.

SMU donor Bill Armstrong’s last name is on the team’s indoor practice facility. His plane, which included two-time U.S. Open champion golfer Bryson DeChambeau and former Mustangs star running back Craig James, left Dallas around 6:30 a.m. CT for State College, Pa. But upon arrival, it was diverted to Williamsport, as were some other SMU private planes. The airport was full.

If you believe in harbingers, this was an ominous one, the limits of SMU’s money on display. From a party bus on the drive to the stadium, several SMU donors and former players watched on their phones as quarterback Kevin Jennings threw two pick sixes. By the time they arrived at Beaver Stadium, the score was 21-0, the game all but over.

“Still a great season,” Armstrong said after the game, pulling gloves out of his pocket and refusing to get too down. To him, there was no doubt that the 11-win Mustangs belonged here.

The final score was 38-10. As the last at-large team in the field, the discourse over College Football Playoff blowouts and selection committee decisions turned to SMU, one day after Indiana was manhandled by Notre Dame.

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On display at Penn State was the difference between being a CFP darling, a fun story, and a CFP contender. It’s a gap so often exposed at this stage of the season.

“We didn’t play well enough to say anything that isn’t going to be written,” head coach Rhett Lashlee said. “It’ll be written, should we be in or did we belong? That’s fine. You’re welcome to write it. We didn’t play good today. But this is a quality team. We had a good team. We deserve to be here. We earned the right to be here. I’m disappointed we didn’t play to the level that validates that.”

What’s too bad is SMU didn’t even give itself a chance. Before kickoff, Lashlee told the broadcast his team had to avoid a bad start like it’d had in the ACC Championship Game against Clemson, when Jennings had two bad turnovers.

What happened this time? First, Jennings missed a wide-open Matthew Hibner in the end zone on what should’ve been a fourth-down touchdown to cap SMU’s opening drive. On the second drive, Jennings threw a pick six, missing a short throw out of the backfield. On the fourth drive, Jennings threw another pick six, a desperate attempt to make a play on third down instead of throwing the ball away.

SMU was down 14-0 despite playing pretty well otherwise and holding up in the trenches. The defense to that point had been stout.

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“That kind of shell-shocked us a little bit,” Lashlee said of the turnover scores.

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Jennings has been turnover-prone. He had five against Duke, but the Mustangs rallied to win that one. SMU also rallied from his two turnovers against Clemson to tie things up late. But Penn State is another level up in competition.

“We don’t have an Abdul Carter,” Lashlee said, referring to Penn State’s All-America edge rusher who was in the backfield constantly and did more than his two tackles for loss indicate, constantly sending Jennings out of the pocket. Penn State’s defense finished with 11 tackles for loss.

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For his part, Jennings said his early miss in the end zone didn’t linger in his head and lead to the interceptions. Lashlee blamed the second quarter tipped red zone interception on himself, saying he should’ve just called a running play. Jennings blamed himself.

“I made mistakes three times and gave them the ball with careless mistakes,” the typically quiet Jennings said. “I didn’t take care of the ball.”

Asked if he considered replacing Jennings with backup Preston Stone, Lashlee didn’t indicate it ever came up until the fourth quarter. Stone, who was the Mustangs’ starting quarterback last year and at the beginning of this year, entered the transfer portal earlier this month but had stayed with the SMU team. When Lashlee pulled Jennings late, everyone decided they didn’t want Stone to get hurt on his way out at that point in the game, the coach said. After the final horn sounded, multiple reports emerged that Stone was heading to Northwestern.

A 38-10 game is not close, nor is it competitive. Penn State was clearly the better team, one that will be favored to win the Fiesta Bowl against No. 3 seed Boise State. But SMU finished with more first downs and held PSU to 5.0 yards per play, though the amount of garbage time certainly factored into those respectable stats.

SMU scored just three points on four red zone trips and gave away 14 points on the interception return touchdowns. It’s why Lashlee was so frustrated. He knows how it looks. He can’t argue otherwise.

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“People are going to see 38-10 or (28-0 at) halftime and say they don’t belong, but the two pick sixes and we had our opportunities,” he said. “We don’t have anybody to blame but ourselves. It should’ve been a good defensive struggle in the 20s. We didn’t do that.”

SMU long felt that if it just got a power conference invitation, it would show it belonged. The Mustangs showed they belonged in the ACC, going 8-0 in conference play. But they didn’t show they’re ready for this stage yet. Nittany Lions coach James Franklin takes a lot of heat from fans and detractors for not winning the big games, but he almost always wins the games in which Penn State has more talent.

Underdog stories typically end with a thud in the CFP, and SMU and Indiana join a list that includes Cincinnati, TCU and others. Top-level talent wins in the end, and SMU doesn’t have that yet.

Lashlee and SMU will spend the ensuing months hearing those that say SMU shouldn’t have been in the CFP, that Alabama deserved the spot (even though Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe’s three-interception performance in a 21-point loss to 6-6 Oklahoma in mid-November was nearly exactly the same as Jennings’ at Penn State). That’s what comes with this stage.

SMU found itself here for the first time and didn’t deliver. As the party bus headed back to Williamsport and the private planes flew back to Dallas, SMU’s coaches, players and billionaires left with a clear vision of just how far they still have to go.

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(Photo: Mitchell Leff / Getty Images)

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Ravens take down Steelers to keep AFC North race open

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Ravens take down Steelers to keep AFC North race open

The Baltimore Ravens punched their ticket to the postseason and kept their hopes for a division title alive Saturday. 

With a 34-17 win over the division rival Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore could reclaim first place in the final two weeks. 

Pittsburgh (10-5) would have clinched the division with a victory, but now the teams are deadlocked after the Ravens (10-5) won for just the second time in the last 10 games of the series. Baltimore clinched a playoff berth with the win. 

The Steelers had already clinched a playoff spot.

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Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson throws from the pocket during the second half against the Pittsburgh Steelers at M&T Bank Stadium.  (Tommy Gilligan/Imagn Images)

Russell Wilson threw two touchdown passes, the second of which tied the game at 17 with 5:14 left in the third quarter. Jackson answered with a 7-yard scoring strike to Mark Andrews.

After Pittsburgh turned the ball over on downs, a 44-yard run by Derrick Henry put the Ravens in the red zone.

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russell wilson tackled

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson (3) during the first half at M&T Bank Stadium. (Tommy Gilligan/Imagn Images)

That drive ended when Jackson was intercepted for just the fourth time this season, but Marlon Humphrey picked off Wilson and ran 37 yards to the end zone to give Baltimore a cushion in a series that’s been tight of late. The previous nine games between the Steelers and Ravens were decided by seven points or fewer.

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Jackson improved to 2-4 against Pittsburgh as a starter. Saturday’s game marked his first time facing the Steelers at home since 2020.

Henry rushed for 162 yards.

Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry

Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry (22) is defended by Pittsburgh Steelers safety Damontae Kazee (23) in the first quarter at M&T Bank Stadium.  (Tommy Gilligan/Imagn Images)

Pittsburgh entered the game with a plus-18 turnover margin, but the Ravens had the edge in that department Saturday. Baltimore recovered three of its own fumbles and had two big takeaways.

Now the Steelers will have to deal with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas Day before finishing the season at home against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Ravens will travel to Houston to play the Texans on Christmas Day before finishing the season at home against the Cleveland Browns. 

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The Associated Press contributed to this report. 

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JuJu Watkins and No. 7 USC hold off No. 4 Connecticut to win in a thriller

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JuJu Watkins and No. 7 USC hold off No. 4 Connecticut to win in a thriller

In a marquee matchup Saturday night, No. 7 USC defeated perennial powerhouse No. 4 Connecticut 72-70, avenging its Elite Eight loss to the Huskies in April and strengthening its status as one of the nation’s elite teams.

“This is a really significant win, and it’s a significant win because of the stature of the UConn program and what [Connecticut coach] Geno Auriemma has done for our sport,” USC coach Lindsay Gottlieb said. “I told [the team] in [the locker room] — for me, for my entire high school and on, this is what basketball excellence was, this is what we saw. And it’s challenged all of us to want to be better, to find players who want to be better and be that elite.”

Undeterred playing in front of a sold-out crowd on the road, USC opened the game with a 9-0 run, capitalizing on cold shooting and defensive lapses from the Huskies. Buoyed by 15 points from JuJu Watkins, the Trojans shot 48.6% from the floor in the first half, including seven for 11 from three-point range, to take a 42-29 lead at halftime.

“A lot of the things [JuJu] does [are] super hard, but she makes it look so easy,” USC forward Kiki Iriafen said. “So I think she really got us going on the offensive end … we all know she’s a superstar, so playing with her definitely relieved the pressure on everybody else.”

Connecticut came out of the locker room with increased intensity, forcing seven Trojan turnovers and limiting Watkins to four points in the third quarter. Propelled by nine points from guard Paige Bueckers, the Huskies outscored USC (11-1) 20-13 in the third quarter, cutting their deficit to six points entering the fourth.

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Connecticut (10-2) continued to chip away and took its first and only lead when freshman Sarah Strong scored on a layup with 4:34 left. USC regained the lead moments later on a Watkins jumper, but the Huskies wouldn’t let the Trojans pull away.

“I don’t think we were ever really rattled,” Watkins said. “We knew what [Connecticut] is capable of, they were going to go on runs, so it was just a matter of handling that and coming down on top.”

With USC leading by three with five seconds left, Strong drew a foul off Watkins while attempting a three-point shot. Strong made her first free throw, but missed her second attempt. After Strong missed her final attempt, Bueckers grabbed the rebound and fed the ball back to Strong, who missed a logo three at the buzzer.

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Watkins finished with 25 points, six rebounds, five assists and three blocks. Iriafen had 16 points, 11 rebounds and six assists.

Bueckers and Strong each had 22 points.

Auriemma praised Watkins’ exceptional talent.

“Every scouting report that you put together, or every film that you watch, it’s very evident that one player can’t guard her,” Auriemma said. “You have to hope she helps, you have to hope she misses. And when she gets a little bit of a rhythm like she got in that first half, it’s really, really difficult … there’s qualities that she has that are just unique.”

Watkins showed why she’s one of the nation’s brightest stars, helping the Trojans earn a signature win. The victory was a showcase of the elite talent that has accelerated women’s college basketball’s growth in popularity.

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“It’s just a testament to when you give women a platform, we’re going to perform,” Watkins said. “And I think that tonight was an excellent game. … It was just beautiful to be a part of. And I couldn’t imagine watching it — so, super exciting. And I think, as we continue to get games like this, we’ll always show up.”

The Trojans next play No. 20 Michigan at Galen Center on Dec. 29.

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