We’re into the defining stretch of the 2024-25 season, with trophies to be won, European spots up for grabs and relegations to be avoided. All of Europe’s domestic leagues and UEFA’s three club competitions are nearing completion, which not only prompts conversation about the end-of-year awards but the next Ballon d’Or too.

At its roots, the Ballon d’Or is a subjective award. Handed out every October to honour the best player in the game over the previous 12 months, it is decided by votes from 100 journalists, one from each of the countries in the top 100 of the FIFA world rankings. Yet, for both players and fans, it remains arguably the best way to judge and reward individual performance. Lionel Messi has the most wins, with eight, followed by Cristiano Ronaldo (five) and then Michel Platini, the late Johan Cruyff and Marco van Basten on three each.

So, with around six months to go before this year’s winner is crowned, here’s a considered analysis of those players The Athletic currently considers the main contenders. We will update these rankings regularly, so expect to see plenty of movement as individual form waxes and wanes over the rest of this season and into the next one.

1) Raphinha (Barcelona and Brazil)

Why’s he in the top 10? Raphinha leads La Liga players in goal contributions across all club competitions with 28 goals and 20 assists in his 45 games. Few could have foreseen the Brazilian having a season of this nature when he was battling relegation from the Premier League with Leeds United this time three years ago, but if Barcelona go on to complete a historic treble, few would argue against him receiving the Ballon d’Or in October.

This week Raphinha had to settle for a half-hour appearance off the bench in a 1-1 home draw against Real Betis last Saturday, with his minutes being carefully managed since he returned from international duty in South America last month. Restored to the starting XI for the visit of Borussia Dortmund in the first leg of a Champions League quarter-final on Wednesday, Raphinha scored the game’s opening goal from about two inches out before assisting both Robert Lewandowski and Lamine Yamal as Barcelona won 4-0. He is now up to a club record 19 goal contributions in the Champions League this season, matching Lionel Messi’s career-best tally from 2011-12.

Up next Barcelona return to domestic action on Saturday away at Leganes with revenge on their mind after losing 1-0 to the relegation-threatened side in December and with Raphinha on the hunt for just his third La Liga goal of 2025. That is followed by a visit to Dortmund’s Signal Iduna Park on Tuesday for what looks like a dead-rubber of a second leg.

2) Ousmane Dembele (Paris Saint-Germain and France)

Why’s he in the top 10? After displaying flashes of brilliance for years, Dembele has finally added consistency to his game this season. He has 32 goals in 41 club appearances, including 21 in 19 since the turn of the year (to go with scoring for France against Croatia last month too). Turning 28 next month, Dembele is one of the senior players in PSG’s youth-infused project under Luis Enrique, which is finally taking off, with the team in contention for a treble, including a Ligue 1 campaign where they are yet to lose after 28 of the 34 matches.

This week Dembele came off the bench for the final half-hour of PSG’s title-clinching win against Angers on Saturday before dazzling in the 3-1 defeat of visitors Aston Villa four days later in the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final. He crowned an impressive display by assisting Nuno Mendes for a potentially pivotal third goal in stoppage time.

Up next PSG have no match this weekend, so don’t play again until the return leg against Villa on Tuesday. With the home side needing to attack to claw back that two-goal deficit, Dembele should find plenty of opportunities on the counter.

Dembele underlined his Ballon d’Or credentials once more against Villa (Franck Fife/AFP via Getty Images)

3) Lamine Yamal (Barcelona and Spain)

Why’s he in the top 10? The cult of Yamal seems to grow every week as he shows off new skills while improving on those we’ve already seen. Whatever he touches seems to turn to gold. He has a record of 14 goals and 17 assists for Barcelona this season, to go with a sumptuous goal for Spain in their Nations League quarter-finals win over the Netherlands in March.

This week Yamal cut a frustrated figure last weekend against Betis, with some rarely-seen heavy touches and misplaced passes as Barca tried to break through a disciplined defence. But it was a good learning experience for him, and he proceeded to toy with Dortmund’s Ramy Bensebaini in midweek before scoring the game’s final goal with an impudent toe-poke.

Up next Yamal will be key if Barcelona are to continue their La Liga title charge at Leganes — the second leg against Dortmund a few days later is now a mere formality with that four-goal lead.

Yamal had another outstanding game in the Champions League on Wednesday (Pedro Salado/Getty Images)

4) Harry Kane (Bayern Munich and England)

Why’s he in the top 10? The Bundesliga is proving far too easy for Kane. Having scored 36 league goals in his 2023-24 debut season after a move from the Premier League’s Tottenham Hotspur, he is on 23 this time, helping put Bayern six points clear at the top with six games to go after surprisingly losing the title to Bayer Leverkusen a year ago. Vincent Kompany’s side are also in the last eight of the Champions League, where Kane has 10 goals in his 12 appearances. He also scored twice for England in their March double-header.

This week Kane scored Bayern’s go-ahead goal in a 3-1 win against Augsburg last Friday, heading home from Michael Olise’s 60th-minute cross. He struggled on Tuesday against visitors Inter in the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final, though, hitting the post in the first half from his best chance as Bayern lost 2-1.

Kane scoring against Augsburg last weekend (Sebastian Widmann/Getty Images)

Up next Kane and Co are at home on Saturday against Dortmund, who he has scored seven goals against in seven games for Spurs and now Bayern. While Der Klassiker is usually an A-list fixture, their focus will undoubtedly be more on turning the Inter tie around at San Siro on Wednesday than domestic matters.

5) Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid and France)

Why’s he in the top 10? Mbappe is approaching the end of one of the best debut seasons ever by a Madrid forward, with 32 goals in 47 games across all competitions despite some growing pains early on. As he has found his feet, the Frenchman has overtaken Vinicius Junior and Jude Bellingham as the talisman of the team.

This week Last weekend saw a humbling for the La Liga champions as Valencia beat them at the Bernabeu for the first time in 17 years. Mbappe toiled with minimal luck against goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili as Madrid fell four points behind leaders Barcelona with eight games to go. If that 2-1 defeat was a shock to the system, Tuesday brought full-fledged electrocution as Arsenal thrashed Madrid 3-0 at the Emirates Stadium in the first leg of a quarter-final to leave their hopes of back-to-back Champions League titles dangling by a thread. Mbappe missed two presentable chances in the first half before being shut out for much of the second.

Up next A trip north to Alaves, who are fighting relegation from La Liga, on Sunday could be the ideal match to either return to form or deepen the sense of crisis at Madrid. That will be followed by Wednesday’s return leg against Arsenal, a fixture which will require Mbappe to channel his inner 2021-22 Karim Benzema.

Mbappe endured a difficult night in north London on Tuesday (Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)

6) Mohamed Salah (Liverpool and Egypt)

Why’s he in the top 10? When your statistics are being compared to those of Messi and Ronaldo, it’s an indication you’re having an all-timer of a season. Salah has gone off the boil rather in the past month but still has 44 goal contributions (27 goals and 17 assists) in the Premier League alone, with Liverpool looking primed to win the title. There will be no other trophies for them in 2024-25, but this is undoubtedly one of the greatest individual seasons played out on English turf.

This week Liverpool suffered a rare league defeat on Sunday, beaten 3-2 at Fulham in a match where Salah was kept quiet for the second time in a week after the 1-0 derby win against Everton. He ended the week much more brightly, though, with confirmation of a new two-year contract.

Up next Liverpool host West Ham United on Sunday and may have a chance to extend their lead at the top of the table if Arsenal rotate players for their home match against Brentford the previous evening. Salah is due a bounce-back game having not scored a non-penalty goal in the league since February 23 and 16th-placed West Ham present the ideal opportunity for him to cut loose.

7) Alessandro Bastoni (Inter and Italy)

Why’s he in the top 10? Bastoni has been a near ever-present for treble-chasing Inter, racking up 3,193 minutes across competitions, the most by any of their outfield player. In addition to his defensive prowess, he averages the second-most pass attempts per 90 minutes (76.6) among all Serie A centre-backs this season.

This week Bastoni played only the first half away at struggling Parma last Saturday as a precaution because of a knee issue. Inter were 2-0 up at the break but conceded twice in nine minutes without him to draw the game. He then played the full 90 at Bayern in the Champions League quarter-final first leg on Tuesday, helping his team to an impressive 2-1 win.

Up next Bastoni and Inter will look to extend their three-point lead in Serie A when they entertain 15th-placed Cagliari on Saturday before the rematch with Bayern, also at San Siro, on Wednesday.

8) Robert Lewandowski (Barcelona and Poland)

Why’s he in the top 10? After facing questions over his Barcelona future at the end of last season, the 36-year-old Lewandowski has spearheaded their treble charge in this one. He is the only player in Europe’s top five leagues to get to 40 goals across all competitions and has a barely believable 123 times in 116 matches under Hansi Flick over three seasons with Bayern and now Barca.

This week Lewandowski, like his attacking partners, struggled in that 1-1 draw with Betis but came to the fore in midweek against Dortmund, another of his former clubs. He scored with a close-range header to make it 2-0, then powered home Barcelona’s third as they put one foot and a couple of toes in the Champions League semi-finals.

Up next Leganes are one of just three teams Lewandowski has faced in La Liga without scoring (although in his defence, he’s only played against them once), a record he will want to change on Saturday. A rest could do him good too, though, if Flick decides he wants him fresh for the trip to Dortmund.

Lewandowski is one of three Barcelona forwards in our top 10 currently (Lluis Gene/AFP via Getty Images)

9) Pedri (Barcelona and Spain)

Why’s he in the top 10? The front three understandably take the headlines but most of Barcelona’s good play stems from Pedri, their midfield engine. His first fully-fit season since 2019-20 has delivered one good performance after the other for Barca and Spain with excellent passes, non-stop running, defensive interventions — and the occasional goal, too.

This week Pedri was another restricted by Betis’ system but found more joy against Dortmund’s inexperienced midfield.

Up next Unlike his attacking team-mates, who might get a rest, you are almost guaranteed to see Pedri start against both Leganes and Dortmund.

10) Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid and England)

Why’s he in the top 10? Bellingham has struggled with inconsistency compared to his 2023-24 debut season with Madrid but still has 11 goals and 10 assists from midfield in 36 matches across La Liga and the Champions League. Madrid have struggled with their balance and their attack’s best moments have come when Bellingham has pulled the strings and made his signature late runs into the box.

This week Bellingham assisted Vinicius Jr’s equaliser against Valencia, and created two great openings in the first half against Arsenal before fading after the break.

Up next Alaves have been one of Bellingham’s favourite opponents — he has a goal and three assists from his three matches against them — but Madrid need him at his absolute best for the Arsenal game in midweek as they aim to conjure another Bernabeu miracle.

(Photos: Getty Images; design: Eamonn Dalton)