It is 76 days since Liverpool moved back to the top of the 2024-25 Premier League table with a 2-1 home win against Brighton & Hove Albion — a position they haven’t relinquished since.

Arne Slot’s side are not always showing imperious form but have still only been beaten once in their 20 league matches so far and have a four-point advantage over second-placed Arsenal, with a game in hand, going into the weekend’s fixtures.

So, are Liverpool destined to win just their second domestic championship in 35 years? And, if they are, at what point in the coming months will that triumph become all but nailed-on? We convened an expert panel — some with affiliations to the Anfield side, others to Liverpool’s biggest rivals — and sought their views.

Pep Guardiola has fried all of our brains.

He’s shattered a lot of English football’s illusions about its exceptionalism during his nine years as Manchester City manager. He’s affected the way pretty much every team in the country play. He’s changed what we all expect our full-backs to do. And our central defenders.

More immediately, he’s altered what we all think a title race looks like.

For the past few years – with one exception – the standard for anyone hoping to win the Premier League has been, as Jurgen Klopp once put it, perfection. Even to be close to that meant getting more than 90 points from the available 114. Actually claiming the crown usually required more: 93, or 98, or 100.

This season is different. A total of 85 will probably do it, maybe even 82. That means our reactions to individual results are out of kilter: in a campaign when City do nothing but win, drawing once at home can be fatal; in one where there’s more leeway for their rivals, the damage is limited.

Liverpool’s current league position, of course, makes them favourites, even if that game they have in hand is the last league derby at Goodison Park — hardly a gimme. But there is little to suggest the four-point advantage Arne Slot’s team currently hold over Arsenal is likely to be decisive. This is not the sort of season where a lead, once obtained, will not be surrendered.

Liverpool’s schedule, from here on in, is more challenging than Arsenal’s; it’s not unimaginable that they might draw three more games than Mikel Arteta’s side over the next four months.

Arsenal do not have a massive margin for error but I’d only be relatively confident that the twists and turns had ended if Liverpool came out of their game against them at Anfield, on the second weekend in May, with a three-point lead. And a superior goal difference, just to be safe.

Rory Smith

Call it a hard-bitten Evertonian self-defence mechanism, but I live with a chronic condition which presents as a persistent, underlying premonition of major Liverpool success. For example: they could be 18th in the 20-team Premier League table, managerless and riddled with injuries, and my nervous system would be preparing for an unlikely cup win and surge to a top-four finish.

So I’ve been tingling with the feeling that the 2024-25 title is coming to Anfield ever since they beat Real Madrid (in the Champions League) and Manchester City back-to-back in the space of five days as November became December.

A small part of me still just can’t rule out some astonishing City revival where they win every game between now and the end of the campaign in late May, as Liverpool drop points due to lingering defensive issues. Or that Arsenal will sign a decent goalscorer before this winter transfer window closes in a couple of weeks and really make it a contest.

But it would still be infinitely more likely that Liverpool will find another gear and triumph comfortably.

As it stands, I think it will only be after they have come through successive games against Chelsea and Arsenal in early May that I will completely make my peace with the forthcoming months of endless coverage, parades, plays, poems, films, statues and royal decrees that will accompany their record-equalling 20th top-flight championship.

Greg O’Keeffe

GO DEEPER

Do Liverpool need new signings?

If you’re a fan of a rival club — Manchester United, say — there is often a point in a season where you have to make peace with the idea the “Bad Thing” might happen, and you start steeling yourself for when friends in the group chat/at five-a-side start gloating more.

For me, that arrived after Liverpool’s trio of fixtures against Tottenham Hotspur, Leicester City and West Ham United either side of Christmas. It wasn’t just that Liverpool were good. It wasn’t just that Manchester City and Arsenal were wobbling. It’s that Arne Slot found enough tactical solutions for the problems the Premier League throws at you.

Left-back is an issue for this team, Darwin Nunez’s pace doesn’t quite compensate for the speed of his decision-making, Alisson is not quite the force he used to be in goal. Alexis Mac Allister – understandably – can look a little leggy when he returns from long-haul international duty in South America with Argentina. Yet Slot keeps tinkering and tweaking while reminding his players at half-time that hard running is not an optional requirement to winning games.

Alisson – a fine goalkeeper, but is he in decline? (Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)

Liverpool’s 2019-20 title triumph saw a Jurgen Klopp-managed side beat Leicester City 4-0 away on December 26 (it might have been Naby Keita’s last good game for the club) and stamp their authority on the rest of the league. This season’s 3-1 win over them at Anfield on that date wasn’t quite the same (if only because Leicester were a lot stronger five years ago), but there is a similar sense that when Slot’s side switch it on, nobody in England can compete.

Carl Anka

In 2019-20, there were two games around this point in the season that made Jurgen Klopp’s side winning the title feel like an inevitability: the 4-0 away victory against Leicester City on Boxing Day and beating Manchester United 2-0 at Anfield on January 19. The latter was their 21st league win from the season’s first 22 matches. Absurd.

I haven’t experienced that feeling yet this season. It is a funny time to pose this question due to the current wobble Arne Slot’s team is having. Had I been asked this question after the victories over Tottenham Hotspur, Leicester and West Ham United before and after Christmas, I would be more positive. But two draws since to make it three wins in seven league games doesn’t scream title-winning form, although they haven’t lost any of those matches.

As a pessimist when it comes to this type of thing, my realistic answer is: only when it is mathematically impossible for them to be caught, or Virgil van Dijk is actually lifting the trophy.

However, I would love that 2019-20-esque moment to come in a Merseyside derby – ideally the next one, at Goodison Park on February 12, but more likely when Everton go to Anfield in the first week of April. Those games are so crucial to momentum, positive or negative.

Failing that, a positive result at home against Arsenal on the weekend of May 10-11 will probably be the key moment where I’ll believe it is happening.

Andy Jones

Over Liverpool’s last seven Premier League matches, they have dropped points in four. That doesn’t look or sound to me like an unstoppable procession to the title. They’re the favourites to win it from here, sure — but I’m not yet convinced.

The issue, of course, is that their most plausible challengers, Arsenal, have a similar propensity to drop points — and a significant gap to overhaul. They’re also without arguably their best player for a while yet with Bukayo Saka having recently undergone surgery for a torn hamstring — and that blow to their attack has been compounded by an ACL knee injury for Gabriel Jesus last weekend.

Much could depend on how much, if at all, Arsenal strengthen before the winter transfer window closes on February 3.

I feel that Liverpool and Arsenal — and Nottingham Forest, and Newcastle, and Chelsea — will continue to drop points here and there. It will be interesting to see if Manchester City can pick up enough points to close the gap and apply some pressure.

Liverpool host Arsenal on the second weekend in May. Arsenal’s mission for the next four months is to make that game matter — and I think there’s every chance they can.

Only if Liverpool win that one, to give themselves a commanding lead with a couple of weeks of the season to go, will I see them as champions-elect.

James McNicholas

Ever since Steven Pienaar of Everton slid in to secure a 4-4 draw at Old Trafford in April 2012, I’ve always made a point of holding onto hope in a title race.

Pienaar’s 85th-minute equaliser in a match Manchester United had led 3-1 after 66 minutes was a goal that helped Manchester City to make up an eight-point deficit with just six games to go and one of those incredible occasions where the desperate mental gymnastics — ‘They just need to lose at Wigan, drop points at home to Everton, and we’ll beat them at the Etihad’ — perfectly checked out.

But even my optimism can only stretch so far.

City are out of this race, Christian Norgaard’s stoppage-time header to deny them a 2-1 win at Brentford on Tuesday the latest reminder that the reigning champions are far too flaky to make up what is currently a 12-point gap.

Norgaard’s late equaliser for Brentford on Tuesday underlined City’s frailties (Clive Rose/Getty Images)

That realistically leaves Arsenal, who I just can’t see reeling Liverpool back in with their inconsistency in front of goal and injury disruptions to their right-hand side.

Arsenal have to go to Anfield in the season’s third-last round of fixtures, and unless they are practically faultless from now until then, it looks like being the fixture that could allow the current leaders to ease their way to glory.

Thom Harris

When you’re writing about something that may arrive in the future, there’s an understandable caution, a fear that you’ll be made to look ridiculous should your prediction turn out to be nonsense.

But even with that in mind, I’m pretty confident about this one: I won’t predict a point between now and the end of the season on May 25 when it will be clear Liverpool have the title in the bag — because I think it’s already in there.

If we’re picking a point when I became sure, it was probably not a single game, but that first week in December, when they beat Manchester City with relative ease, something that came not long before Arsenal drew with Fulham and then Everton.

The certainty is less about Liverpool, an excellent if not historically brilliant team, but more that I just don’t trust any of the chasing pack to be consistent enough to catch them. City are going through some stuff, Arsenal aren’t ruthless enough, Chelsea are wobbling, teams will figure out how to beat Nottingham Forest soon enough, Newcastle are the form team now but are an Alexander Isak injury away from trouble.

Liverpool will end as the last team standing, the best of a Premier League season in which the overall quality has evened out, without one single behemoth overshadowing the rest.

Nick Miller

It seems to me that only supporters of other clubs are certain that the 2024-25 title will arrive at Anfield.

If it doesn’t, it conveniently gives them the chance to say Liverpool choked. You build them up, you knock them down.

Like a lot of Liverpudlians, I am reasonably confident the season will end in championship success for Arne Slot’s team. Yet there is also caution due to recent memories, as well as longer ones. Under Jurgen Klopp, Liverpool led the way three times at this stage of a season but only once were they in the same position when the music stopped after 38 games.

Further back, the promise of teams led by Roy Evans, Rafael Benitez and Brendan Rodgers was marked in springtime before hopes faded on the run-in.

It is for these reasons that I will only be certain about the possibilities relating to Slot’s Liverpool when those currently chasing can no longer catch them.

Simon Hughes

(Top photo: Phil Noble/AFP via Getty Images)

Mission League basketball has started with a series of lopsided games as Harvard-Westlake, Sherman Oaks Notre Dame and Sierra Canyon make it clear they have separated from the rest of the competition.

It finally gets serious Jan. 24 when Harvard-Westlake (20-1) plays at Notre Dame (17-2) in game that will be the hottest ticket in town, resembling the days of the 1980s when Crespi and Notre Dame played in gyms so full that they had to open gym windows and turn away spectators.

On Thursday night, Harvard-Westlake improved to 2-0 in league with a 67-56 home victory over Crespi, which played without its injured standout, Peyton White. The Celts (15-5) hung tough for a half, trailing 33-22 at halftime and getting as close as 33-25.

Harvard-Westlake went on a 17-3 surge in the third quarter behind Nikolas Khamenia and former Crespi guard Joe Sterling to open a 26-point cushion. Khamenia scored 10 of his 19 points in the quarter. Sterling finished with 20 points.

Isaiah Barnes led Crespi with 14 points.

Khamenia, the 6-foot-9 Duke-bound senior who’s expected to be a McDonald’s All-American, is the most unselfish player on the floor. If his team needs him to be a facilitator, he’ll do it. If his team needs him to score, he’ll do it. It sets up an intriguing matchup next week against Notre Dame and junior star Tyran Stokes.

“I’m going to take what the defense gives me,” he said. “When I get my teammates going, it’s easier to score.”

Notre Dame is still waiting to see if standout guard Lino Mark can return next week from injury.

Sherman Oaks Notre Dame 79, St. Francis 58: Tryan Stokes had 21 points, nine rebounds and eight assists for the Knights. NaVorro Bowman and Caleb Ogbu each had 15 points and Zachary White 13. DeLan Grant had 21 points for St. Francis.

Sierra Canyon 84, Loyola 42: Bryce Cofield scored 15 points and Bryce James had 12 points on senior night for Sierra Canyon.

Bishop Alemany 59, Chaminade 52: The Warriors picked up the Mission League win.

Eastvale Roosevelt 78, Corona Centennial 52: Brayden Burries scored 28 points and Myles Walker had 23 points to lead No. 1-ranked Roosevelt.

The NFL is down to its final eight teams and historically this weekend’s games are viewership powerhouses. Last year, the NFL’s divisional round, led by a mega-matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs, averaged a whopping 40.0 million viewers, the highest audience number on record, dating to 1988. Kansas City’s win at Buffalo led the way with 50.4 million viewers, the most-watched divisional round game on record.

There are plenty of stories at The Athletic projecting what might happen this weekend. On the media front, Tom Brady will once again find the spotlight as Fox’s lead NFL analyst, but this week presents something that hits at the crux of Brady’s juggling between his analyst duties and minority ownership of the Las Vegas Raiders.

Last week NFL Network insider Ian Rapoport reported that Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has been recruited by Brady to interview with the Raiders for the club’s head coach opening.

“Thanks in part to the involvement of Brady, who sources say personally vouched for Johnson and implored him to take the interview through his agent, Johnson spoke with them,” Rapoport wrote.

“Essentially, Brady recruited Johnson to interview.”

Rapoport also reported that “Brady was influential in the decision to fire (head coach Antonio) Pierce and (general manager Tom) Telesco, seeking alignment from him to the GM to the coach.”

(The Athletic’s Vic Tafur and Tashan Reed have essential additional reporting on the Raiders’ coaching and GM searches, both being informed — and influenced — by Brady.)

Lions OC Ben Johnson says he spoke with Tom Brady on the field before the Packers game. First time he’s met him.

Brady will be calling the Commanders-Lions game this weekend for Fox, while helping the Raiders find a new head coach and GM.

— Colton Pouncy (@colton_pouncy) January 15, 2025

Fox is airing the Lions-Washington Commanders game Saturday (8 p.m. ET, also on Fox Deportes) with Kevin Burkhardt and Brady in the booth. There is no other NFL broadcast with this kind of working conflict, but we already knew that. The conflict has already been written about, including here several times, and as we have reported, Fox has no issues with it, given it is happy to be in the Tom Brady business.

But viewers deserve transparency at a minimum, and what Fox Sports should do out of respect for the audience is have Brady and Burkhardt discuss — on-air — that Brady has been part of the process involving Johnson.

I expect the broadcast to address it in some form (Fox Sports brass knows this is all out there, and its top NFL team has a lead producer and director who are immensely respected across the industry), but how deep they address it, we’ll see.

From my perspective, it should not simply be gloss over it with a 45-second discussion. If you are going to own the conflict, at least be transparent with the audience.

A substantive acknowledgment and discussion of what’s going on would help Brady with viewers who might naturally believe his recruitment of Johnson will have an impact on how he discusses the Lions.

Beyond Brady’s analysis of Johnson and the Lions, what will this year’s divisional round bring as far as viewer interest?

We bring back the Watchability Index for another week, which rates viewer anticipation as well as predicts expected viewership.

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
6:30 p.m. ET Sunday
CBS, Paramount+

Watchability: 10 out of 10

Why it’s watchable: The NFL has always marketed its sport through the quarterbacks — Manning vs. Brady! — and this game has the two leading contenders for the league MVP honors — the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson and Buffalo’s Josh Allen. You can’t ask for more as far as entertainment if you are neutral.

The two teams ranked second (Bills) and third (Ravens) during the regular season. The Ravens are particularly lethal on the ground — they averaged 187.6 yards per game. Highmark Stadium is loud and cold, a perfect setting for football.

Everything about this game feels massive and it’s why the NFL placed it in its most optimum television window.

Odds: Ravens (-1)

Viewership prediction: 47 million viewers

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
3 p.m. ET Sunday
NBC, Peacock, Telemundo, Universo

Watchability ranking: 8 out of 10

Why it’s watchable: Hard not to embrace the Rams given the ongoing wildfires in the Los Angeles area. Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp are a collective force, and when Matthew Stafford is on, he’s fun to watch. L.A. looked like a juggernaut against the Minnesota Vikings with a postseason-record nine sacks.

The Eagles have the top-ranked defense (we’ll see how the loss of Nakobe Dean affects that), an all-time asset in Saquon Barkley and “Inner Excellence: Train Your Mind for Extraordinary Performance and the Best Possible Life” working for them.

Lincoln Financial Field is a nightmare for opposing teams given Eagles fans are boisterous and belligerent. A late afternoon game in a great sports city. How can you not watch?

Odds: Eagles (-6)

Viewership prediction: 39 million viewers

Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions
8 p.m. ET Saturday
Fox, Fox Deportes

Watchability ranking: 7.5 out of 10

Why it’s watchable:  The Athletic’s projection model gives the Lions a 24 percent chance to advance to the Super Bowl, the best percentage among all the remaining teams. The model has them scoring the most points over the weekend, which makes sense given they led the league in points scored (33.2 points) and were second in total yards per game (424.9 yards).

Detroit is fun to watch, it has an uber-aggressive coach and has an America’s Team feel to it given how many people seem to list it as their second favorite team.

It’s great to see the Commanders fans get this playoff run after all the years of living under the Dan Snyder regime. Jayden Daniels is a lock for Rookie of the Year and plays like a seasoned vet. Plus, how can you not love a doink to win a wild-card game?

Favorite: Lions (-9)

Viewership prediction: 35 million viewers

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
4:30 p.m. ET Saturday
ESPN/ABC, ESPN+, ESPN Deportes

Watchability ranking: 5 out of 10

Why it’s watchable: Start with Patrick Mahomes, the standard-bearer for winning. The Chiefs have been the NFL’s viewership bell cow over the last couple of years (for good reason) given their excellence. (Taylor Swift probably helped juice the numbers, too.)

The weather is expected to be chilly and Arrowhead Stadium is chaotic when filled.

The Texans seem to live in the early Saturday afternoon slot, which tells you how the NFL broadcasting department sees them against other teams. Houston has the lowest expected points in our projection model, and the Chiefs’ starters have rested since Christmas Day.

Favorite: Chiefs -8

Viewership prediction: 34 million

(Top photo: Mitchell Leff / Getty Images)