Sports
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs can’t keep getting away with this. Or can they?
The Kansas City Chiefs keep winning games no team should win so frequently, leaving opposing fans pointing to everything from dumb luck to favorable officiating to explain the maddening inevitability.
Mathematically, the Chiefs’ 15-game winning streak in games decided by one score or less should happen once in 406 chances.
With a 19-17 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers on a last-second field goal that bounced off the left upright before clearing the crossbar Sunday, the Chiefs became the 26th team in league history to begin a season with a 12-1 record.
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Yet, they are one of one.
The Chiefs’ point differential through 13 games (plus-56) is by far the smallest for any 12-1 team.
The victory over the Chargers was Kansas City’s fourth of the season by one or two points, a total exceeded just once over a full season in the 105-year history of the NFL. The 1989 Green Bay Packers did it five times and finished 10-6, per Pro Football Reference.
How do the Chiefs keep doing this? What is their secret? This specific Kansas City team appears configured to play many close games and win a higher percentage of them, even if the current 15-game win streak in one-score games remains a mathematical outlier, as we’ll demonstrate next.
What will it mean in the playoffs? There are indicators to consider there as well.
The odds behind the streak
The Chiefs have an 18-1 record since Week 17 of 2023, counting their four-game run to a second successive Super Bowl victory. That period includes the 15-game victory streak in games decided by eight or fewer points. The Chiefs have also won by 19, 13 and 10 during that span, while suffering their only defeat, 30-21, at Buffalo on Nov. 17.
To calculate how likely a team would be to win 15 consecutive games of any kind, we take the team’s expected win rate in those games to the power of the streak duration. Counting playoffs, the Chiefs had a 42-21 (.667) record in one-score games from 2018-23 with Patrick Mahomes as their starting quarterback. I used this rate to plot Kansas City’s expected wins across 15 such games.
The table below shows the likelihood of a team winning between one and 15 games consecutively with projected win rates of 67 percent (Mahomes’ win rate in one-score games from 2018 to 2023) and 78 percent (his win rate in 2023-24).
Win streak probability by expected win %
| Games in Streak | 67% Win Rate | 78% Win Rate |
|---|---|---|
|
1 |
66.7% |
78.3% |
|
2 |
44.5% |
61.3% |
|
3 |
29.7% |
48.0% |
|
4 |
19.8% |
37.6% |
|
5 |
13.2% |
29.4% |
|
6 |
8.8% |
23.0% |
|
7 |
5.9% |
18.0% |
|
8 |
3.9% |
14.1% |
|
9 |
2.6% |
11.1% |
|
10 |
1.7% |
8.7% |
|
11 |
1.2% |
6.8% |
|
12 |
0.8% |
5.3% |
|
13 |
0.5% |
4.2% |
|
14 |
0.3% |
3.3% |
|
15 |
0.2% |
2.5% |
The microscopic 0.246 percent likelihood of a 15-game streak in the left column works out to a 1-in-406 chance.
It’s historic. Is it unfathomable?
There are ways to demystify the achievement.
The 67 percent win rate creates an expectation that the Chiefs would win 10 of these 15 games. In that case, no one would be shocked if they won a couple fewer or a couple more. Let’s say they happened to win 12. Throw in some one-off occurrences, such as Kansas City blocking a last-second field goal against Denver in Week 10, and the remaining three victories might be explained. An unlikely scramble here, a fortunate penalty there.
But there’s more to it than that.
Perceptions of Chiefs heighten our disbelief
The Chiefs win so frequently and at such a high level, including in the past two Super Bowls, that even the betting markets seem surprised when they do not dominate on the scoreboard.
Point spreads can be instructive here.
The Chiefs are 6-1 over their past seven games without covering the spread even once, per TruMedia.
Since 2000, 21 other teams have gone exactly seven consecutive games without covering. They combined for an 18-129 (.122) record during those streaks. That’s 6-1 for the Chiefs, 18-129 for everyone else.
It’s another way to feel as though the Chiefs are underperforming even when they win, which invites questions about their legitimacy, even though they aren’t the ones setting the expectations.
Winning without impressing might be a Kansas City phenomenon.
The 2020 Chiefs went 5-0 over a five-game stretch without covering the spread, the only team to accomplish that feat since 2000. The 2018 Chiefs own the second-best record since 2000 (3-3) among teams that failed to cover for six straight games.
Nothing seems to come easily for these 2024 Chiefs.
Their rate of explosive plays — defined as rushes gaining 12-plus yards and passes gaining more than 15 — has plummeted to 8.5 percent this season. That ranks 30th, ahead of only the Las Vegas Raiders and New York Giants, who have 2-11 records. The rate is down from 10.5 percent last season, which ranked 16th, and barely half what it was in 2018 (15.7 percent, which ranked second).
Kansas City nonetheless ranks eighth in offensive EPA per play because the Chiefs have shown great ability to sustain long drives, partly because Mahomes ranks first in EPA per pass play on third and fourth downs (he’s 24th on early downs). The Kansas City defense, which has slipped to 18th in EPA per play this season after ranking fifth in 2023, ranks 25th in turnovers forced (10) this season and 27th over the past three.
Longer, more laborious drives by the offense, combined with a defense that plays pretty well in general but does not take the ball away with frequency, could explain why games involving the Chiefs have fewer total possessions than games involving any other team but the Arizona Cardinals this season.
With fewer possessions, each one becomes more valuable, which also could play into Kansas City’s advantages.
Why the Chiefs win so many close games
Reconciling the Chiefs’ 12-1 record with their plus-56 point differential would be difficult without accounting for the roles elite quarterbacks and coaches might play.
Most teams with point differentials near the Chiefs’ plus-56 would have records near 8-5 through 13 games.
The Chiefs are one of seven teams since 1970 with 10-plus wins through 13 games despite having point differentials between plus-51 and plus-61, per Pro Football Reference.
Top 13-game W-L records with +51-61 point margin
Six of the seven had Hall of Fame-caliber quarterbacks and/or head coaches: Tom Brady and Bill Belichick with the 2003 New England Patriots; Aaron Rodgers with the 2021 Packers; a broken-down Peyton Manning (backed by an elite defense) with the 2015 Denver Broncos; Tom Landry with the 1981 Dallas Cowboys; Andy Reid with the 2003 Eagles; and, of course, Mahomes with Reid on these Chiefs.
Kansas City also has a consensus top-five defensive coordinator in Steve Spagnuolo.
These advantages could tip game outcomes when the margins for winning are smallest.
Mahomes in particular is a master scrambler throughout games and especially in critical moments. His scramble rate jumps by about 50 percent in the fourth quarter of one-score games (9.8 percent, compared to 6.5 percent in all situations).
Scrambles for gains of 10 yards against the Chargers on Sunday and 33 yards against Carolina in Week 12 moved the Chiefs into field-goal range during drives that ended with walk-off kicks. Last season, while protecting a 23-20 lead against the New York Jets, Mahomes scrambled 25 yards on third-and-23 to help the Chiefs run the final 7:24 off the game clock with a 15-play drive.
The chart below shows the EPA he has added over the 2023 and 2024 seasons, counting playoffs, on scrambles in the fourth quarter and overtime when no more than eight points separated Kansas City from its opponents on the scoreboard. Mahomes is so much more prolific than others, he’s almost off the chart.
A league-leading seven of these scrambles added at least 5 percent to the Chiefs’ win probability, per Next Gen Stats.
While some critical officiating calls have helped the Chiefs win close games recently, including a pass-interference call against Cincinnati on fourth-and-16 in the final minute in Week 2, Kansas City ranks only 15th in penalty EPA per game in fourth quarters of one-score games over the past two seasons. Seattle has benefited the most and Cleveland the least in these situations.
The Chiefs, despite having recent turnover at kicker, have made all 18 field-goal tries in the fourth quarter of one-score games over the past two seasons. Their average kick distance in these situations is the sixth-shortest in the league (35.2 yards), probably because Mahomes and the offense do such a good job getting into position. Cincinnati, by contrast, averages a league-long 46.4 yards on these kicks.
The smallest things can make the biggest differences in the most critical situations.
What it means in the playoffs
Before the Chiefs, the 1976 Oakland Raiders owned the distinction as the 12-1 team with the lowest point differential (plus-89). That Raiders team won the Super Bowl, but only after overcoming a 21-10 deficit in the fourth quarter to beat New England in the first round of the playoffs. Oakland got a 1-yard touchdown pass from Ken Stabler in the final 10 seconds to win 24-21 after officials controversially flagged the Patriots for roughing the passer on a third-and-18 incompletion. Not too difficult to imagine Kansas City pulling off something similar, is it?
We might also revisit that list of teams that were 10-3 or better through 13 games, but with point differentials similar to Kansas City’s this season.
Those 2003 Patriots and 2015 Broncos won the Super Bowl. The 1978 Rams and 1981 Cowboys reached the NFC title game. The 2021 Packers lost in the divisional round. The 2013 Eagles lost in the wild-card round.
The Chiefs’ ability to win so many close games is a leading reason Kansas City has a league-best 78 percent chance to secure a first-round playoff bye and home-field advantage in the playoffs.
That means Kansas City probably needs to win only two playoff games to reach another Super Bowl.
What’s a two-game winning streak for a team that has won 15 one-score games in a row?
(Photo: Perry Knotts / Getty Images)
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Jason Kelce says Eagles players share blame with fired coordinator Kevin Patullo for offensive struggles
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The Philadelphia Eagles fired offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo after a disappointing 23-19 loss in the Wild Card round against the San Francisco 49ers.
However, former Eagles star center Jason Kelce said that while Patullo bears responsibility for the offensive struggles, he thought the players could have performed better.
“The bottom line is this offense didn’t live up to what it should have, right? And Patullo, as the offensive coordinator, bears responsibility and so do the players. That’s my thing. I don’t think the players played as good as they could have,” Kelce said during a recent episode of the “New Heights” podcast.
Jason Kelce looks on before the game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Arizona Cardinals at AT&T Stadium. The game took place in Arlington, Texas, on Nov. 3, 2025. (Kevin Jairaj/Imagn Images)
“I love all those guys and that’s just the way it is sometimes. I had my seasons. I damn sure did. And you know, how do they rebound from this? Where do they go from here? There’ll be new faces in. There’ll be faces that are familiar that are out.”
The 38-year-old said he doesn’t think it’s fair for all the blame to be placed on Patullo. Kelce referenced the offensive line’s inability to stay healthy and a running game that regressed as causes for the downturn.
“The main reason (for the regression) and I’ve been saying this from the beginning was the run game. The offensive line’s inability to stay healthy altogether to open up holes. Saquon Barkley almost set the NFL record for rushing last year. They were incredible in the run game,” Kelce said.
The seven-time Pro Bowler pointed out that while the Eagles won the Super Bowl last season, the passing game struggled. With the running game not nearly as dynamic as it was last season, the issues with the passing game became more prominent.
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Jason Kelce waves to fans during the Super Bowl LIX championship parade and rally in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on Feb. 14, 2025. (Kyle Ross/Imagn Images)
“The passing game, they struggled last year. I mean, there were all sorts of things happening last season that we like to forget because we won the Super Bowl, but the passing game has been an issue for multiple seasons now. Now, the running game isn’t there. Why isn’t it there? The offensive line is in and out. They’re hurt. Guys are overcoming injuries. They’re not playing the same way they’ve played in the past,” Kelce said.
“You have a quarterback that’s not running as much. Jalen Hurts, the threat of him running the ball, opens up so much for the running back when they have to truly respect it, and it also opens up things downfield.”
Kelce did lament the lack of creativity within the Eagles offense and said it would “behoove” them to bring in someone from outside the building as their new offensive coordinator.
“I would love to see more motions. I would love to see all that stuff,” Kelce said. “It would probably behoove the Eagles to bring in somebody with a fresh perspective on where it’s at currently, because when you’re in it, you’re thinking about what you’ve done well in the past. You’re thinking about how you’ve had success.”
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Former player Jason Kelce reacts prior to the game between the Washington Commanders and the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. The game took place in Kansas City, Missouri, on Oct. 27, 2025. (Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
“It’s like, man, I know this guy can do this. I know this can happen here. Yeah. When you bring in somebody else, it’s like, man, this is where we’re at now. And now we can bring in some fresh ideas. we can figure out a way to maximize things while keeping that nucleus together.”
Last season, during the team’s Super Bowl-winning season, they were tied for fourth in the NFL, averaging 29 points per game. This season, they scored a touchdown fewer, averaging 22.1 points per game, which ranked 19th in the NFL.
The Eagles hope their next offensive coordinator can turn things around quickly.
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‘The man was hurting’: Reporter explains her controversial interaction with Jaguars coach
Lynn Jones didn’t have a question ready.
The 64-year-old veteran reporter for the Jacksonville Free Press was attending Jaguars coach Liam Coen‘s postgame news conference Sunday after his team’s 27-23 playoff loss to the Buffalo Bills.
Three other reporters had already asked game-specific questions when the microphone was passed to Jones, who was still looking at her notes and trying to figure out what to ask the first-year coach immediately after a heartbreaking end to the season.
She ended up not asking anything at all.
Instead, Jones spent 22 seconds of the six-minute news conference offering Coen words of encouragement and praise. Things like, “I just want to tell you congratulations on your success, young man” and “You hold your head up, all right? You guys have had a most magnificent season.”
Jones told The Times in a phone interview Tuesday that the words “just flowed out of me.”
Those words prompted what appeared to be a genuine smile from Coen, who answered each of Jones’ seven comments with a variation of “thank you, ma’am” or “I appreciate it.”
“The man was hurting,” Jones told The Times. But then “he starts smiling. ‘Yes, ma’am, yes, ma’am.’ And he felt better to know that it’s OK, it’s going to be OK. ‘I’ve done a great job,’ you know? So I was glad to make him feel that way.”
Video from the session quickly went viral. ESPN’s Adam Schefter wrote on X, “This is an awesome post-game exchange between a reporter and Jaguars HC Liam Coen.”
Associated Press reporter Mark Long expressed a different point of view.
“Nothing ‘awesome’ about fans/fake media doing stuff like that,” Long wrote in an X post that has since been deleted. “It should be embarrassing for the people who credentialed her and her organization, and it’s a waste of time for those of us actually working.”
Many others have weighed in on either side of the issue. ESPN personality Pat McAfee wrote in a lengthy X post that sports writers who criticized Jones’ actions are “curmudgeon bums” whose “opinions and thoughts are coming from a place of wanting to destroy sports.”
“feels like some journalism was actually done there,” McAfee added of Jones’ approach.
ESPN reporter Brooke Pryor wrote on X: “look, it’s a kind sentiment, but it’s not the job of a reporter to console a coach in a postgame press conference. Pressers are to ask questions to gain a better understanding of what happened or figure out what’s next — and do it in a limited amount of time.”
Time wasn’t an issue for Jones, who said every reporter with a question had the opportunity to ask it. She added that her brief interaction with Coen seemed to lighten the mood a bit in the room.
Rev. Bernice King, daughter of civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr., released a statement in support of Jones.
“Humanity + compassion done = unprofessional,” King wrote. “If so, the world could certainly use more ‘unprofessionalism’ right now. Thank you, Ms. Jones.”
Jones, who worked for the Jaguars as an administrative assistant during their inaugural season in 1995, has no problem admitting she’s a fan of the team she now covers. She also has been a reporter for more than three decades, including the last 18 years at the Free Press, and bristles at being labeled “fake media.”
“That’s where I draw the line,” she said. “That’s why I have not responded to the gentleman from the AP or anyone else for that matter, because it doesn’t affect me. I know my credibility. I know what I do and how we do it as an organization.
“They’ve been talking about us being a small-town market, but we have a big heart. We here at the Free Press, we do things intentionally and in a manner that’s reported from all eyes, you know, every community in that sense.”
On Tuesday, the Free Press — a member of the National Newspapers Publishers Assn., which represents more than 200 Black-owned newspapers in the United States — started selling apparel featuring the newspaper’s name, Jones’ name and some of the uplifting phrases she used during her interaction with Coen.
“Join the Free Press family and the Lynn Jones movement of nothing but love and get your t-shirt, hoodie or sweatshirt today,” the newspaper wrote on Instagram. “ALL PROCEEDS will go towards scholarships and internships to teach young journalists a positive spin to reporting!”
Jones said her actions at Coen’s news conference were typical for her. “Oh, that’s me,” she said, “anybody will tell you.”
She added: “I’m a passionate person, so when I’m in these environments, it’s easy to be able to have a warm interaction with these individuals.”
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LIV Golf stars commit to staying put after Brooks Koepka’s departure, return to PGA Tour
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Brooks Koepka may have returned to the PGA Tour following a stint at LIV Golf, but do not expect the Saudi-backed league’s other biggest stars to join in.
Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm and Cameron Smith all committed to staying put when speaking to reporters on Tuesday at a preseason press conference.
“I had no idea, no idea that that would happen.” DeChambeau said. “No idea what the penalties would even be. Right now, I’ve got a contract. I’m looking forward to seeing what we can do at LIV Golf this year.”
Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm walk to the eighth green during the first round of the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club on June 2, 2022. (Adam Cairns/The Columbus Dispatch)
“I made a decision to come out here and spend more time at home, and I’m not giving that away. I’ll be on LIV for years to come,” added Smith, who won the 2022 Open Championship shortly before officially committing to LIV.
DeChambeau and Smith each left in 2022, but Rahm was perhaps the biggest surprise. Once very outspoken against LIV, he joined the league in December 2023.
In August 2024, he shut down rumors of buyer’s remorse to Fox News Digital, and that still appears to be the case.
“I’m not planning on going anywhere. Very similar answer to what Bryson gave. I wish Brooks the best. As far as I’m concerned, I’m focused on the league and my team this year, and hopefully we can repeat as champions again,” Rahm said.
Koepka’s decision came weeks after he revealed he would be leaving the rival series.
“I want to thank my family and my team for their continued support throughout every step of my professional career,” he wrote on social media. “When I was a child, I always dreamed about competing on the @PGATOUR, and I am just as excited today to announce that I am returning to the PGA TOUR. Being closer to home and spending more time with my family makes this opportunity especially meaningful to me.
Brooks Koepka, of the United States, acknowledges the crowd on the 5th green during the first round of the British Open golf championship at the Royal Portrush Golf Club in Northern Ireland, July 17, 2025. (Peter Morrison, File/AP Photo)
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“I believe in where the PGA TOUR is headed with new leadership, new investors, and an equity program that gives players a meaningful ownership stake,” he continued. “I also understand there are financial penalties associated with this decision, and I accept those.”
Koepka said he planned to be at the Farmers Insurance Open and the Waste Management Phoenix Open in the coming weeks.
PGA Tour CEO Brian Rolapp said Koepka’s return sparked the Returning Member Program for those who left the company and may decide to follow in Koepka’s footsteps.
Rolapp said Koepka agreed to a few conditions upon his return to the PGA Tour. It included a “five-year forfeiture of potential equity in the PGA Tour’s Player Equity Program, representing one of the largest financial repercussions in professional sports history, with estimations that he could miss out on approximately $50–85 million in potential earnings, depending on his competitive performance and the growth of the Tour,” according to Rolapp. Koepka will also make a $5 million charitable donation to an organization yet to be determined.
Brooks Koepka during the second round of the PGA Championship golf tournament at Quail Hollow. (Aaron Doster/Imagn Images)
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Koepka became the first person to return to the PGA Tour after defecting for LIV.
Fox News’ Ryan Gaydos contributed to this report.
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