Sports
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs can’t keep getting away with this. Or can they?
The Kansas City Chiefs keep winning games no team should win so frequently, leaving opposing fans pointing to everything from dumb luck to favorable officiating to explain the maddening inevitability.
Mathematically, the Chiefs’ 15-game winning streak in games decided by one score or less should happen once in 406 chances.
With a 19-17 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers on a last-second field goal that bounced off the left upright before clearing the crossbar Sunday, the Chiefs became the 26th team in league history to begin a season with a 12-1 record.
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Yet, they are one of one.
The Chiefs’ point differential through 13 games (plus-56) is by far the smallest for any 12-1 team.
The victory over the Chargers was Kansas City’s fourth of the season by one or two points, a total exceeded just once over a full season in the 105-year history of the NFL. The 1989 Green Bay Packers did it five times and finished 10-6, per Pro Football Reference.
How do the Chiefs keep doing this? What is their secret? This specific Kansas City team appears configured to play many close games and win a higher percentage of them, even if the current 15-game win streak in one-score games remains a mathematical outlier, as we’ll demonstrate next.
What will it mean in the playoffs? There are indicators to consider there as well.
The odds behind the streak
The Chiefs have an 18-1 record since Week 17 of 2023, counting their four-game run to a second successive Super Bowl victory. That period includes the 15-game victory streak in games decided by eight or fewer points. The Chiefs have also won by 19, 13 and 10 during that span, while suffering their only defeat, 30-21, at Buffalo on Nov. 17.
To calculate how likely a team would be to win 15 consecutive games of any kind, we take the team’s expected win rate in those games to the power of the streak duration. Counting playoffs, the Chiefs had a 42-21 (.667) record in one-score games from 2018-23 with Patrick Mahomes as their starting quarterback. I used this rate to plot Kansas City’s expected wins across 15 such games.
The table below shows the likelihood of a team winning between one and 15 games consecutively with projected win rates of 67 percent (Mahomes’ win rate in one-score games from 2018 to 2023) and 78 percent (his win rate in 2023-24).
Win streak probability by expected win %
| Games in Streak | 67% Win Rate | 78% Win Rate |
|---|---|---|
|
1 |
66.7% |
78.3% |
|
2 |
44.5% |
61.3% |
|
3 |
29.7% |
48.0% |
|
4 |
19.8% |
37.6% |
|
5 |
13.2% |
29.4% |
|
6 |
8.8% |
23.0% |
|
7 |
5.9% |
18.0% |
|
8 |
3.9% |
14.1% |
|
9 |
2.6% |
11.1% |
|
10 |
1.7% |
8.7% |
|
11 |
1.2% |
6.8% |
|
12 |
0.8% |
5.3% |
|
13 |
0.5% |
4.2% |
|
14 |
0.3% |
3.3% |
|
15 |
0.2% |
2.5% |
The microscopic 0.246 percent likelihood of a 15-game streak in the left column works out to a 1-in-406 chance.
It’s historic. Is it unfathomable?
There are ways to demystify the achievement.
The 67 percent win rate creates an expectation that the Chiefs would win 10 of these 15 games. In that case, no one would be shocked if they won a couple fewer or a couple more. Let’s say they happened to win 12. Throw in some one-off occurrences, such as Kansas City blocking a last-second field goal against Denver in Week 10, and the remaining three victories might be explained. An unlikely scramble here, a fortunate penalty there.
But there’s more to it than that.
Perceptions of Chiefs heighten our disbelief
The Chiefs win so frequently and at such a high level, including in the past two Super Bowls, that even the betting markets seem surprised when they do not dominate on the scoreboard.
Point spreads can be instructive here.
The Chiefs are 6-1 over their past seven games without covering the spread even once, per TruMedia.
Since 2000, 21 other teams have gone exactly seven consecutive games without covering. They combined for an 18-129 (.122) record during those streaks. That’s 6-1 for the Chiefs, 18-129 for everyone else.
It’s another way to feel as though the Chiefs are underperforming even when they win, which invites questions about their legitimacy, even though they aren’t the ones setting the expectations.
Winning without impressing might be a Kansas City phenomenon.
The 2020 Chiefs went 5-0 over a five-game stretch without covering the spread, the only team to accomplish that feat since 2000. The 2018 Chiefs own the second-best record since 2000 (3-3) among teams that failed to cover for six straight games.
Nothing seems to come easily for these 2024 Chiefs.
Their rate of explosive plays — defined as rushes gaining 12-plus yards and passes gaining more than 15 — has plummeted to 8.5 percent this season. That ranks 30th, ahead of only the Las Vegas Raiders and New York Giants, who have 2-11 records. The rate is down from 10.5 percent last season, which ranked 16th, and barely half what it was in 2018 (15.7 percent, which ranked second).
Kansas City nonetheless ranks eighth in offensive EPA per play because the Chiefs have shown great ability to sustain long drives, partly because Mahomes ranks first in EPA per pass play on third and fourth downs (he’s 24th on early downs). The Kansas City defense, which has slipped to 18th in EPA per play this season after ranking fifth in 2023, ranks 25th in turnovers forced (10) this season and 27th over the past three.
Longer, more laborious drives by the offense, combined with a defense that plays pretty well in general but does not take the ball away with frequency, could explain why games involving the Chiefs have fewer total possessions than games involving any other team but the Arizona Cardinals this season.
With fewer possessions, each one becomes more valuable, which also could play into Kansas City’s advantages.
Why the Chiefs win so many close games
Reconciling the Chiefs’ 12-1 record with their plus-56 point differential would be difficult without accounting for the roles elite quarterbacks and coaches might play.
Most teams with point differentials near the Chiefs’ plus-56 would have records near 8-5 through 13 games.
The Chiefs are one of seven teams since 1970 with 10-plus wins through 13 games despite having point differentials between plus-51 and plus-61, per Pro Football Reference.
Top 13-game W-L records with +51-61 point margin
Six of the seven had Hall of Fame-caliber quarterbacks and/or head coaches: Tom Brady and Bill Belichick with the 2003 New England Patriots; Aaron Rodgers with the 2021 Packers; a broken-down Peyton Manning (backed by an elite defense) with the 2015 Denver Broncos; Tom Landry with the 1981 Dallas Cowboys; Andy Reid with the 2003 Eagles; and, of course, Mahomes with Reid on these Chiefs.
Kansas City also has a consensus top-five defensive coordinator in Steve Spagnuolo.
These advantages could tip game outcomes when the margins for winning are smallest.
Mahomes in particular is a master scrambler throughout games and especially in critical moments. His scramble rate jumps by about 50 percent in the fourth quarter of one-score games (9.8 percent, compared to 6.5 percent in all situations).
Scrambles for gains of 10 yards against the Chargers on Sunday and 33 yards against Carolina in Week 12 moved the Chiefs into field-goal range during drives that ended with walk-off kicks. Last season, while protecting a 23-20 lead against the New York Jets, Mahomes scrambled 25 yards on third-and-23 to help the Chiefs run the final 7:24 off the game clock with a 15-play drive.
The chart below shows the EPA he has added over the 2023 and 2024 seasons, counting playoffs, on scrambles in the fourth quarter and overtime when no more than eight points separated Kansas City from its opponents on the scoreboard. Mahomes is so much more prolific than others, he’s almost off the chart.
A league-leading seven of these scrambles added at least 5 percent to the Chiefs’ win probability, per Next Gen Stats.
While some critical officiating calls have helped the Chiefs win close games recently, including a pass-interference call against Cincinnati on fourth-and-16 in the final minute in Week 2, Kansas City ranks only 15th in penalty EPA per game in fourth quarters of one-score games over the past two seasons. Seattle has benefited the most and Cleveland the least in these situations.
The Chiefs, despite having recent turnover at kicker, have made all 18 field-goal tries in the fourth quarter of one-score games over the past two seasons. Their average kick distance in these situations is the sixth-shortest in the league (35.2 yards), probably because Mahomes and the offense do such a good job getting into position. Cincinnati, by contrast, averages a league-long 46.4 yards on these kicks.
The smallest things can make the biggest differences in the most critical situations.
What it means in the playoffs
Before the Chiefs, the 1976 Oakland Raiders owned the distinction as the 12-1 team with the lowest point differential (plus-89). That Raiders team won the Super Bowl, but only after overcoming a 21-10 deficit in the fourth quarter to beat New England in the first round of the playoffs. Oakland got a 1-yard touchdown pass from Ken Stabler in the final 10 seconds to win 24-21 after officials controversially flagged the Patriots for roughing the passer on a third-and-18 incompletion. Not too difficult to imagine Kansas City pulling off something similar, is it?
We might also revisit that list of teams that were 10-3 or better through 13 games, but with point differentials similar to Kansas City’s this season.
Those 2003 Patriots and 2015 Broncos won the Super Bowl. The 1978 Rams and 1981 Cowboys reached the NFC title game. The 2021 Packers lost in the divisional round. The 2013 Eagles lost in the wild-card round.
The Chiefs’ ability to win so many close games is a leading reason Kansas City has a league-best 78 percent chance to secure a first-round playoff bye and home-field advantage in the playoffs.
That means Kansas City probably needs to win only two playoff games to reach another Super Bowl.
What’s a two-game winning streak for a team that has won 15 one-score games in a row?
(Photo: Perry Knotts / Getty Images)
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LAS VEGAS – Finn Balor and Dominik Mysterio were once brothers in arms in the Judgment Day. The two helped the faction run “Monday Night Raw” for several years.
As championships and opportunities came and went, the rift between Balor and Mysterio grew. It came to a head when Balor caused Mysterio to lose the Intercontinental Championship to Penta. Balor leaving the Judgment Day left Mysterio and Liv Morgan as the leaders with JD McDonagh, Raquel Rodriguez and Roxanne Perez sticking around.
Finn Balor is introduced before his match against Dominik Mysterio during WrestleMania 42 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nev., on April 19, 2026. (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
The latter four chose to ride with Mysterio and attacked Balor on one episode of Raw.
The bitter war led to a match Sunday night at WrestleMania 42. To make matters more interesting, Raw General Manager Adam Pearce made the match a street fight hours before the show was set to begin.
Balor had vowed to bring the “Demon” out and he certainly did.
JACOB FATU PUTS DREW MCINTYRE IN THE ‘REAR VIEW’ IN UNSANCTIONED MATCH AT WRESTLEMANIA 42
Finn Balor is introduced before his match against Dominik Mysterio during WrestleMania 42 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nev., on April 19, 2026. (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
Balor made his way to the ring in his “Demon” gear, dripping with red and black paint. Mysterio was in a mask with other Mysterio supporters.
The two then proceeded to beat the crud out of each other.
Mysterio wrapped Balor’s head in between a chair and hit a 619 on him. He tried to pin Balor, but to no avail. At another point, Mysterio tossed Balor through a table set up in the corner.
As many have learned, it’s hard to keep your demons down. Mysterio learned the hard way.
Balor would not give up. Balor clotheslined Mysterio, hit him with a chair multiple times before wrapping his head in between the chair and drop-kicking him into the corner. Balor put Mysterio onto a table and hit the Coup de Grâce for the win.
Dominik Mysterio is introduced before his match against Finn Balor during WrestleMania 42 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nev., on April 19, 2026. (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
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Balor excised his own demons, while Mysterio is still haunted.
DENVER — What do you know? The once-stampeding Dodgers have been caged by the Colorado Rockies.
With a 9-6 loss Sunday at Coors Field, the two-time defending World Series champions lost back-to-back games for the first time this season. The Dodgers again couldn’t hold a lead, letting the Rockies tee off for 15 hits.
Nor could the Dodgers keep up offensively at the hitter-friendly park — though they put some pressure on in the ninth inning, when Shohei Ohtani led off with a ground-rule double and the Dodgers scored twice to cut the lead to three runs. Then the new guy, Ryan Ward, made the final out in his big league debut, robbed of a hit and a chance to keep chipping away by a diving Troy Johnston in right field.
Before that, the Rockies — who beat the Dodgers twice in 13 meetings all of last season — chased starter Roki Sasaki from the game in the fifth inning and then ruffled the Dodgers’ relievers. That included closer Edwin Díaz, who came on in the eighth and promptly gave up three singles, a walk and two runs before being pulled with the Dodgers trailing 8-4.
Dodgers starting pitcher Roki Sasaki gave up three runs on seven hits in 4-2/3 innings Sunday against the Rockies in Denver.
(David Zalubowski / Associated Press)
He and Blake Treinen combined to face eight batters without getting an out.
“They both weren’t sharp,” said manager Dave Roberts, who had theories but not many answers — though he did have real concern, especially about Díaz, who recently had his right knee checked out by the medical staff.
Roberts said the closer wanted to pitch after nine days off, even though it wasn’t a save situation. But his velocity was slightly down (95.4 mph vs. 95.8) and so, “today was a tough evaluation,” the manager said.
“It really was,” Roberts said. “Because, you know, I know what it’s supposed to look like, and when it doesn’t look like that, it gets a little concerning, really.”
And losing for the second time to the Rockies, who are now 9-13? Being in danger of losing their four-game series, after arriving in Denver without having lost to a National League opponent, against a club that hasn’t made the postseason since 2018?
It’s well below the bar the Dodgers have set, and it added a bitter note to Ward’s otherwise sweet debut.
Ward punched a big league clock for the first time wearing No. 67 and cranked his first hit off Rockies starter Michael Lorenzen in the fourth inning, lining a changeup to right field for a single that scored Andy Pages, made it 3-0 and got the 20-some members of Ward’s party up, jumping in place, hugging and high-fiving.
“When I was on first base, I got to see them all jumping around up there,” Ward said. “That was a pretty special moment.”
He also singled in the sixth and swung on the first pitch in his first at-bat, a fly out in the third inning.
The Dodgers gave Sasaki a 2-0 lead in the third. Alex Freeland drove in Hyeseong Kim, and Shohei Ohtani doubled in Freeland — and extended his career-best on-base streak to 51 games, moving past Willie Keeler into third place in Dodgers history.
Sasaki went 4-2/3 innings, threw 78 pitches and gave up three runs on seven hits, striking out two and walking two. His ERA after his fourth start: 6.11, worst in the six-man rotation.
The Dodgers fell behind 6-5 in the seventh when Treinen — who was cleared Friday after he was struck in the head by a batted ball during batting practice — gave up four consecutive hits, including a two-run home run by Mickey Moniak.
The result likely will be a minor detail when Ward tells the story years from now about getting the call after first baseman Freddie Freeman was placed on the paternity list.
The Dodgers’ No. 19 prospect and reigning Pacific Coast League MVP spent the last seven years in the minors. Last season, he hit 36 home runs and drove in 122 runs with a .937 on-base-plus-slugging percentage for triple-A Oklahoma City, and he has a 1.020 OPS and four homers this year.
Ward made it a point to improve his chase rate, draw more walks and get on base more frequently, everything the Dodgers asked of him. He also passed the broadest patience test.
“The plate discipline, being a better hitter … he’s done all that,” Roberts said. “He’s improved his defense. But honestly, for me, just not to let his lack of opportunity in the big leagues deter him. That’s easy when you get frustrated and let it affect performance, and he hasn’t done that.”
If anything, Ward said, the waiting made him better.
“I used it to keep going. ‘OK, if I’m not there yet, what do I have to do to get there?’” he said. “‘What part of my game do I need to work on to keep getting better?’
“I used it as fire to keep working.”
That will be the Dodgers’ assignment too.
In the finale of the four-game series Monday, the Dodgers are expected to start left-hander Justin Wrobleski (2-0, 2.12) against Colorado left-hander Jose Quintana (0-1, 5.63).
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LAS VEGAS – Danhausen’s curse may be real after all – just ask Stephen A. Smith and the New York Mets.
While the latter dropped their 10th game in a row, Smith got his share of the curse on Saturday night during Night 1 of WrestleMania 42. Smith was in attendance for WWE’s premier event of the year and heard massive boos from the crowd.
Stephen A. Smith attends WrestleMania 42: Night 1 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada, on April 18, 2026. (Andrew Timms/WWE)
Smith was sitting ringside to watch the action. The ESPN star appeared on the videoboard above the ring at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. He appeared to embrace the reaction and smiled through it.
The boos came after Danhausen appeared on “First Take” on Friday – much to the chagrin of the sports pundit. Smith appeared perplexed by Danhausen’s appearance. Smith said he heard about Danhausen and called him a “bad luck charm.”
Danhausen said Smith had been “rude” to him and put the dreaded “curse” on the commentator.
WWE STAR DANHAUSEN SAYS METS ‘CURSE’ ISN’T EXACTLY LIFTED AS TEAM DROPS NINTH STRAIGHT GAME
Stephen A. Smith attends WrestleMania 42: Night 1 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada, on April 18, 2026. (Andrew Timms/WWE)
Smith is far from the only one dealing with the effects of the “curse.”
Danhausen agreed to “un-curse” the Mets during their losing streak. However, he told Fox News Digital earlier this week that there was a reason why the curse’s removal didn’t take full effect.
“I did un-curse the Mets. But it didn’t work because, I believe it was Brian Gewirtz who did not pay Danhausen. He did not send me my money so it did not take full effect,” Danhausen said. “Once I have the money, perhaps it will actually work because right now it’s probably about a half of an un-cursing. It’s like a layaway situation.”
Danhausen enters the arena before his match against Kit Wilson during SmackDown at SAP Center in San Jose, Calif., on April 10, 2026. (Eakin Howard/Getty Images)
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On “Friday Night SmackDown,” WWE stars like The Miz and Kit Wilson were also targets of Danhausen’s curse.
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